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The betting markets have shifted overnight, predicting an increase in Starmer’s short-term chances of survival. But bookies say he is now more likely to be replaced before the next General Election…
More in Common’s director Luke Tryl observes that the Tories and Reform are outperforming their polling average: “comparing the swing in local election results since 22 & swing implied by the polling average, it looks like the Tories are overperforming by about 6 points, Reform by 3, Labour on track, Greens underperforming and Lib Dems underperforming.” The Greens and LibDems underperforming by two points and five points respectively…
Labour’s collapse in the North West is also bad news for Andy Burnham’s return planners. Say it together now: No safe seats…
David Lammy set hares running last night when he refused to back Starmer’s continuation in office. He said only:
“People want to see the Labour Party deliver, and for councillors working hard, for activists, members on the doorstep making sure that our message is delivered locally, they want to see us nationally delivering on their behalf as well.”
In typical Lammy style he apparently didn’t mean to be so coy and was forced to issue a correction later in the night. Labour Chairman Anna Turley was questioned about the DPM’s reluctance to endorse Starmer:
“He’s clarified that since – David fully supports the PM. They are very close political friends and allies.”
Calamity…
In the wake of the local election results Andrew Marr has predicted Farage will become the next PM. About turn…
He said on LBC just now:
“As we sit here now, Nigel Farage is going to be the next Prime Minister. I think we are on course for a Reform victory at the next election. They might have Tories propping them up or not. But the way things are, very interesting listening to Farage just now… he kept talking about geography. And that is the crucial part of what’s happening today, which is that they are indeed becoming a national party.
They are winning all over the place. Now, the early wins have been in Labour’s traditional northern heartlands. And that’s part of, you know, the Brexit story, part of Boris Johnson’s levelling up.
It’s been going on for an awful long time but they’re winning there and they’re winning in the Tory heartlands across the southeast of England as well you put that together you’re asking him can he win an overall majority without London in effect and the answer is he probably can and the big questions for the other parties are do they maintain their position do they try to maintain their position as big national movements.”
This is the same Andrew Marr who said in July 2024:
“I think just having a stable government for five, maybe ten years, which has ordinary, down to earth, serious people, talking like the rest of us, in charge of the government, is going to mean a wall of money coming into this country from around the world. If you look at the chaos in France and Italy, and the chaos in the United States, for the first time in a long time Britain is like a little haven of peace and stability.”
Tempora mutantur…
Starmer:
“We made a number of calls which were the right calls in terms of stabilising the economy, investing in our public services and not getting dragged into the Iran war. But we also made unnecessary mistakes. And my job now is to set out the steps that we will take to bring about the change that people want and and deserve.”
Asked if he would resign:
“No, I’m not going to walk away and plunge the country into chaos. We were elected to deal with these challenges and that’s what we will do… I think it’s very important that we don’t sugarcoat these results. So, I’m not going to do that. They are tough results. I accept that. Um, they reflect um voters who don’t feel that their lives have changed enough or quickly enough and that’s been going on for a long time. We were elected to deal with that. And I’m not going to walk away from that responsibility and plunge the country into chaos.”
So far backbencher Jonathan Brash has called for Starmer to go. Ministers watching with beady eyes…
Starmer has spoken to activists just now amid Labour losses across the country. The picture is not full yet, some election watchers say Labour is not doing as badly as it could so far…
Reform is winning one in three of all seats contested so far. The PM said:
“The results are tough, they are very tough, and there’s no sugarcoating it… It hurts, and it should hurt, and I take responsibility. Tough days like this don’t weaken my resolve to deliver the change that I promised. They strengthen my resolve.”
In Tameside Labour lost control for the first time since 1979. Defence Secretary John Healey also rejected Miliband’s idea of a timetable for Starmer’s exit, telling the Today Programme: “It’s absolutely wrong now.” Wait and see…
Election guru John Curtice said: “Labour’s rate of seat loss were to continue to the end of tomorrow, they could be looking at losses of just over 1200 seats, rather less than some forecasts anticipated.” In London the Tories have retaken Westminster and wrestled Wandsworth to No Overall Control. The party has also held Bexley. Badenoch is chipper…
Farage has arrived in Havering – won by the party having taken 28/55 seats – and said “the best is yet to come… we are here to stay.” He tells election watchers to keep an eye on Sunderland, Cannock, and Wakefield…
Results will continue to roll in throughout the day and night. It’s the long haul…
Shadow DWP Secretary Helen Whately joins Adam Cherry and Max Young on the Guido Fawkes Show to discuss the Conservative fightback against Labour’s pension raid, why she still supports the Triple Lock, and what’s in store for the Tories at the local elections. Plus her showdown talks with Torsten Bell…
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Speaking to Adam Boulton on Times Radio about kicking the Golders Green suspect, Heidi Alexander said:
“I thought that if I was in the shoes of that police officer, then if I’m honest, given the situation, and the fact that he had a backpack on his back, and they were worried about whether that might go off, I could, if I was a police officer, frankly, I could see myself having taken similar action.”