Starmer has returned from yet another social media sabbatical only to be met with a tsunami of troll comments. Some are more creative than others…
Starmer would often retreat from TikTok whenever his premiership was in mortal danger. His blackouts grew more frequent in recent months, for obvious reasons. Who knows how much longer the account will survive, now that his attempt to ‘go where the voters are’ via weird videos achieved nothing…
HMRC this week declared victory in the war on illegal tobacco after claiming the duty gap for hand-rolling tobacco fell to an all-time low in 2024/25. They also admitted they are making up the figures themselves…
The taxman’s report concedes the 2024/25 tobacco figures are “projected” rather than measured because of “data availability and small sample sizes.” In the methodology annex it admits that “as a result of modifications to question sequencing and funding limitations, certain consumption data for 2024 to 2025 are incomplete.” The method relies on counting how many cigarettes are smoked, subtracting legal sales, then calling the difference the black market…
HMRC’s figures are doubtful in context. Smoker numbers fell 17% between 2002 and 2024 but legal cigarette sales fell 34% and legal rolling tobacco 40%. Provisional 2025 data shows legal sales down 40% and 53% respectively since 2022. What’s filling the gap…
KPMG’s empty-pack survey for Philip Morris found one third of British packs were illicit. Some estimates show 50% of rolling tobacco is now illicit. Ireland’s official figures show 28% and 37%. Meanwhile HMRC estimates only 14.2%…
The government is simultaneously making cracking down on dodgy high-street shops a flagship priority. Mahmood told the BBC weeks ago that illegal cigarettes are “what’s powering all this” and ministers have pumped more cash to the National Crime Agency. Either there is a problem or there isn’t…
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Andy Burnham’s warm relations with Shabana Mahmood could turn frosty after a series of potential clashes once he enters government. Reality will as usual be a smack in the face…
Burnham has spoken highly of the Home Secretary and her approach to immigration – combined with briefings from Mahmood’s team about Andy being keen on her becoming Chancellor – but there is growing speculation that relations could sour fast.
The so-called Hillsborough Law, which imposes a duty of candour on all public servants, has repeatedly died under Starmer’s government after those civil servants who know anything about security work warned that the legally mandated massive releases of evidence under the law would be a disaster. Bill campaigners also refused to accept a compromise from Starmer’s government which carved out MI5 and so on…
Labour sources point out that the Home Secretary – with the security services in her ear – led substantial pushback against the Hillsborough Law. She is likely to continue doing so in her current role. Andy Burnham has a decades-long history with the Hillsborough campaign and worked as Culture Secretary on the matter. He’s not going to enjoy going slow…
Briefings have already appeared this week detailing that Burnham views Mahmood’s retroactive changes to Indefinite Leave to Remain are unfair and immigration reforms could in the end be watered down. According to Sky News the new PM would also cancel Mahmood’s major project to merge police forces because he favours a different approach. Trouble in paradise?
The latest from Find Out Now:
The Burnham bounce is real. Although political honeymoons don’t last the weekend nowadays…
Huw Edwards has launched a Substack in which he has endorsed Burnham’s ascension to power. Andy’s got some real weight behind him now…
Edwards, who admitted accessing indecent images of children two years ago, said in an introductory post: “I will try to post once a week. There are no plans for paid subscriptions. Thank you for even considering reading my work.” Weekly…
On Burnham’s path to power:
“When Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt withdrew, Sunak was simply the last man standing. He walked through the door of Number Ten on the strength of no meaningful mandate at all.
Now that is a ‘coronation’ in its purest form. No process, no contest, no mandate.
And yet the same commentators now fulminating at Labour’s ‘stitch-up’ spent the autumn of 2022 telling us that Sunak fully deserved the keys to Number Ten. The markets would approve. The ‘adults’ were back in the room. No talk of democratic deficit when their man was being ‘crowned’.”
He leaves it on a cautious note:
“The question is not whether he deserves a ‘coronation’. Our system facilitates his elevation in this way. The real question is what he does on the throne.
If he calls an early election, he accepts the logic of democratic renewal and rolls the dice. If he doesn’t, he is Brown — or Sunak — and the clock is ticking.”
Burnham’s got to win him over….
Speaking at his speech on how to achieve “progressive capitalism” Wes Streeting fired a dig and Andy Burnham:
“Bond markets are not bond villains and fiscal rules matter.”