Guido hears Tory-aligned think tank Onward’s Head of Political Economy Gavin Rice has been hired by campaigning Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy as his new senior adviser. Rice was previously SpAd for Boris and later policy director at the Centre for Social Justice. His main work at Onward was also with Timothy on the Future of Conservatism project which partly aimed at how to reindustrialise Britain. Parties on the right are raiding wonk world to pad out their policy platforms…
The reactions from Westminster’s think tanks are in. It’s a bad day to be a humble wonk hoping for some growth and stability. Deep breath…
The Adam Smith Institute’s Joanna Marchong: “The Chancellor has convinced herself of economic stability based on deeply outdated forecasts. It is a Statement written by spin doctors, not economists. After last year’s Autumn Budget, Reeves needed to show that those sacrifices were not in vain and deliver growth. OBR forecasts, even though they don’t reflect current shocks, appear to show her rules are just about intact, but growth is lacklustre and the UK is far from credible.”
The IEA’s Julian Jessop: “The Chancellor sent a signal of ‘steady as she goes’ today but what was really needed is a change of course. There is little sign that the government’s economic plan is working. In particular, the OBR’s forecasts for growth have been revised down and those for unemployment have been revised up. Inflation is at least projected to fall a little more quickly, but this forecast has already been overtaken by the surge in energy prices following the escalation of the crisis in the Middle East.”
The TaxPayers’ Alliance’s John O’Connell: “The idea that the chancellor has restored economic stability will sound like a sick joke to taxpayers suffering under this government… Everyone with a pair of eyes can see the services and infrastructure they pay for are crumbling before their eyes, and yet the chancellor has the cheek to tell them it’s all going marvellously. Enough’s enough – this country needs politicians who will put families and businesses first, and that means cutting spending and handing it back to taxpayers through big tax cuts.”
The Growth Commission’s Douglas McWilliams: “Before the Middle East crisis arose there was a reasonable chance that growth this year would match the OBR’s forecast. Clearly growth prospects are on hold while oil prices are shooting up, though we hope that the end of the crisis will bring a resumption. But our prediction is that, over the longer term, growth will stutter because of the Chancellor’s failure to adopt policies supportive of the economy. The cyclical recovery is likely to prove fragile unless it is supported, not hindered, by policy.”
The Centre for Social Justice’s Joe Shalam: “The Government wanted this spring forecast to be a non-event. But as the global outlook darkens, business as usual is patently not enough. Instead, ministers must now do everything they can to get Britain working and the economy fired up by ending the scandal of millions trapped on welfare. We already spend more on health benefits than the entire defence budget in what is a monumental waste of human potential. Repairing broken Britain is ultimately a matter of national security in a fast-changing world.”
The Centre for Policy Studies‘ Robert Colvile: “The Spring Forecast was, like Britain’s economic performance, an overwhelming disappointment. Indeed, a Chancellor can rarely have sounded so excited to announce a downgrade in growth. The Chancellor may well be right to limit policy changes to the autumn Budget – although the Government’s record on U-turns rather gives the lie to that ambition. But the result is that, instead of a proper fiscal statement, we were treated to a parade of empty and often misleading boasts, citing statistics no one else could read – with barely a reference to ongoing global events which may render much of the analysis completely meaningless.”
Onward’s Simon Clarke, keeping it brief via X: “Well that was utterly pointless and despair inducing. Moving on.”
Policy Exchange’s Iain Mansfield: “Nothing in the Spring Statement alters the fact that Britain’s economy is in no state to weather another crisis. With growth downgraded, debt at around 95% of GDP and almost a million young people not in work or education, a prolonged spike in energy costs could push Britain to the brink.
The Labour loyalist Institute for Public Policy Research’s Harry Quilter-Pinner, asking Reeves to build on her supposed economic “momentum“: “…Lower net migration poses a medium-term risk to public finances, while renewed conflict in the Middle East risks pushing up energy prices and adding to inflationary strain on households and businesses. The real test now is not short-term headroom but building on the economic momentum. The Spring Statement has bought the government time, it must now use it. That means focusing on broadening industrial strategy beyond energy into defence and advanced manufacturing, and doubling down on a ‘war on bills’ to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.” Good luck…
Even the Resolution Foundation’s chief Ruth Curtice is unmoved: “Disappointed not to see any immediate action on NEETs in particular. With almost one in six young people who want to work unable to find a job, they deserve clarity on minimum wage policy and an expanded Jobs Guarantee scheme now. [The] Chancellor appeared to promise action soon.”
The tax burden is set to reach a post-war high, and the welfare bill will soar to a stratospheric £406 billion by the end of the Parliament. Happy spring…
The reactions are in from Westminster’s wonks on Reeves’ Binfire Budget. They had a head start to prepare them thanks to the OBR leaking it…
The Adam Smith Institute’s head of communications Joanna Marchong said: “Individually, the measures may look modest. But without properly addressing the ballooning welfare bill, missed house building targets, the effect of stealth taxes on workers and our plummeting productivity Britain’s economic stability will continue to be questioned.” Smorgasbord of misery…
TaxPayers’ Alliance CEO John O’Connell added: “The chancellor’s budget benefits bonanza will be paid for by hard working taxpayers through their incomes, pensions, property, savings and beyond. The pettiness of this government and its unquenchable thirst for cash even extends to milkshakes.” Stop the sin taxes…
Pro-growth campaign Britain Remade’s Sam Richards said: “The shambles surrounding the launch of this miserable Budget should not distract from the Government’s abject failure to deliver their number one priority: economic growth.” The OBR downgraded its growth forecast again…
Policy Exchange’s senior research fellow Ben Ramanauskas warned: “This Budget could be even more damaging than the last. These tax hikes will see working people paying more tax, stifle growth, and could raise less revenue than claimed by the Treasury, meaning that the Chancellor would be forced to come back next year with even more tax rises.” She’s just broken her promise to not come back for more…
The Centre for Social Justice blasted the “Buckeroo Budget”, with policy director Joe Shalam saying: “A government with a majority of 169 has set out a Budget penned by its backbenchers. But throwing money at the problem, paid for by a squeeze on the workers and savers of middle England, will eventually cause a kick.”
Left-wing think tank/Labour press arm the Institute for Public Policy Research’s executive director Harry Quilter-Pinner showered praise on the “good calls on gambling tax, taxing income from wealth and work more equally, a tax on high value properties and endi
Budget Man Torsten Bell’s old outfit the Resolution Foundation also briefly welcomed the two-child benefit cap scrap.
Growth Commission Chairman Shanker Singham said: “This Budget tinkers at the edges of revenue enhancements which are relatively small and which impose significant GDP per capita losses going forward. This Treasury zero-sum thinking is doing real damage to the Prime Minister’s growth objectives for the British economy. Continued static growth will drown the UK in a sea of red ink.”
Onward’s director Simon Clarke said: “Today’s Budget compounds the damage inflicted a year ago: slower growth and lower productivity alongside higher taxes and more welfare spending.”
Far-left New Economics Foundation‘s CEO Danny Sriskandarajah warns the tax rises won’t improve living standards (true), though campaigns for a wealth tax: “The budget will raise tens of billions in taxes – but apart from a few bright spots like ending the two-child limit, she is so in hock to our broken fiscal framework that most of this will just be used to double the government’s headroom. The chancellor should have recognised this by asking the wealthiest among us to pay what they owe towards our public services, starting with raising capital gains tax to the same rate as income tax.”
The Institute of Directors‘ Anna Leach said: “This Budget does not substantively change the UK’s growth outlook. Public spending is higher, and business investment even lower than before. The scaling back of National Insurance relief on pension contributions – even while the government has launched its Pension Commission – will undermine retirement savings and the very investment pools that we need, as well as heaping further costs on employment.”
Centre for Policy Studies‘ director Robert Colvile said: “This was a bad Budget in every way. Bad because it raises tax to post-war highs. Bad because it puts off difficult decisions until the final years of the forecast period. And bad because it avoids any attempt at reforming and simplifying the tax system.” Bad, bad, bad…
Labour promised £8.5 billion of tax hikes in its manifesto. Two budgets later, Reeves has increased them by £66 billion to splurge on spending and stave off a Labour rebellion. A backbencher budget…
Lord Frost has been appointed the Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs. He will join the free market think tank in January, and will give up the Conservative whip to accept the position. The IEA’s getting Frosty…
He said this afternoon:
“I am delighted to be able to make the case for freedom from this new vantage point, as Director General of the IEA, one of Britain’s oldest, greatest, and certainly most pro-freedom think tanks. The IEA helped create the conditions for Britain’s free market revolution in the 1980s by refusing to compromise on its principles and by advocating them so clearly that they entered into the political bloodstream. That now needs to happen again if we are to defeat the current bleak outlook of statism and collectivism.
“The IEA is an educational charity and does not engage in party politics. Accordingly I will no longer take the Conservative whip in the Lords. I will continue to contribute there as a non-affiliated peer. I will not be joining any other party.
“I look forward to having even greater freedom to say what I think and (to adopt the famous phrase of FA Hayek) to argue ever more strongly against the socialists of all parties.”
Another win for Guido’s runners and riders series…
Tom Clougherty has stepped down as Executive Director of the Institute of Economic Affairs. Clougherty was appointed in October 2023…
Clougherty replaced Mark Littlewood, who is now running the Trussite Popular Conservatism. A runners and riders is in order…
UPDATE: Linda Edwards, Chairman of the IEA, said:
“Tom is a talented and thoughtful colleague. We’re grateful for his contributions to the IEA – helping to strengthen our public reputation, expand our digital reach, and secure important foundation support. We wish Tom every success in his next chapter. The IEA has a strong team who are moving forward with a packed research and education pipeline, busy events, and rapidly growing audiences. The Board of Trustees has begun the search for a new Executive Director to lead the next phase of our growth.”
Tom Clougherty said:
“I am very grateful to have served as the IEA’s executive director. This is a great organisation with a bright future ahead of it. I wish my successor all the best. And I know my brilliant former colleagues will continue to advance the cause of liberty and free markets.”
Wonk world’s verdict of Kemi Badenoch’s conference speech is in. Unsurprisingly, there’s plenty of praise for the commitment to scrapping stamp duty. As far as rabbits out of the hat go, this has left the low-tax think tankers spellbound…
Of course, whether this makes a jot of difference to the polling is another question. A better question still is ‘what does the government think’? After all, back when Torsten Bell ran the Resolution Foundation, he said “stamp duties are bad taxes“. That was before Bell ended up with a red box…
Speaking at his speech on how to achieve “progressive capitalism” Wes Streeting fired a dig and Andy Burnham:
“Bond markets are not bond villains and fiscal rules matter.”