“Years ago, Mrs Thatcher recognised the truth about the European project. She saw that it was about taking away democracy from nation states and handing that power to largely unaccountable people. Knowing as she did that the Euro would not work, she saw that this was a very dangerous design.”

YouGov have the first polling figures on immigration since Dave’s big speech, and they aren’t exactly happy reading for the PM. His proposals were welcomed, but 1 in 4 still see UKIP as the party most trusted to deal with immigration. Clegg going for votes he’ll never win by taking a tougher stance and getting under the skin of almost his entire grassroots in the process hasn’t exactly paid off either…

The maths does not look great for anyone except Labour in the rotten borough of South Shields, but then that’s what was said about Rotherham where UKIP managed to come second last year. A spokesman for the party was boisterous about their chances in the seat.

“UKIP expect the momentum that has been gathering over the past year to become apparent in South Shields, where we will be selecting a candidate who will work hard to highlight how the ordinary people of South Shields have been let down by the old three parties and Labour in particular. Those who want to send a message to both front beches know the best way to do it, and that is to vote UKIP.”

Sources in the party are hopeful of a second place: “it is well within our grasp”. And the bookies agree…

UPDATE: Keep an eye on John Tennant’s  website. He works for UKIP MEP Derek Clark and fancies his chances as the candidate:

A great opportunity for #UKIP to bring its message to the North East, #SouthShields #UKIP #DMiliband—
John Tennant (@johnukip) March 27, 2013

This one will surprise a few people: UKIP’s MEPs have voted against the EU budget in today’s vote. Labour sources have this afternoon been stressing to Guido how their own MEPs had voted with the Tories, but that hasn’t stopped UKIP from opposing the deal on the grounds that it didn’t offer a big enough cut. A senior UKIP source tells Guido:

“Fact is that this is a posturing piece of flam from the parliament. UKIP voted against such a paltry cut, we demand a 100% cut in Britain’s contribution to the EU’s flabby, wasteful budget.”

One way to stir things up…

UPDATE: Roger Helmer explains the UKIP dilemma:

“Our first instinct of course is to vote against.  We don’t want to be in the EU, and we don’t want any EU budget at all.  No matter how little the EU costs us, it’s still too much. But on the other hand, we’ve always called on the EU to spend less, so how can we vote against a reduced budget?  Just suppose, for the sake of argument, that in a tight vote our dozen UKIP votes tipped the scales and defeated the proposal.  If no agreement is reached, the default position is a real-terms freeze — so the budget would go up in nominal terms.  How do we fancy a headline “UKIP vote leads to increased EU budget”? Tough call.  But of course there’s an up-side in terms of voter perception, if the budget deal falls.  The news for the voters would then be “Member States agreed a cut, but the European parliament effectively vetoed it”.  That should increase public anger and resentment against the EU and all its works.”

Roger Helmer and team hard at work this morning…

UPDATE: Friends of Roger tell Guido: “He must be dreaming of a time when we are no longer there.”

Via @juliegirling

The framed original artwork of Rich’s Monday Morning View is now available on eBay.

Tory vice chairman Michael Fabricant has given his critique of this morning’s by-election result:

“Nigel Farage is right: the UKIP message “connects” with the electorate & it’s not just Europe but crime, immigration, etc too. In Eastleigh UKIP appealed to protest voters but also to Blue Collar Conservative voters… This was ALMOST certainly a protest vote.  But no-one should write UKIP off. They will do well in the European elections (their very raison d’etre). The Conservatives have similar policies to many in UKIP (more than with the Lib-Dems!), but we need a clear and focussed voice. The Conservative voice is muffled and not crisp. It does not clearly project Conservative core policies or principles. Everyone from the PM downwards must focus on the economy, immigration, crime, Europe and not allow other side policies to distract.”

How can the Tories win in 2015? Truly one of the great questions of our time…

Food for thought for the leaders of the main three parties in Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling. Over a fifth of those who voted Tory in 2010 jumped to UKIP yesterday. Interestingly, almost the same proportion of Chris Huhne’s voters chose the UKIP candidate this time round. Diane James also took 17% of Labour’s 2010 vote. Just 59% of 2010 Tories voted blue and only 51% of those who voted for Huhne backed Mike Thornton. UKIP are taking votes from all three parties…

A good line, but a good point too…

They really don’t want to finish third…

H/T @billykenber