Thursday, October 16, 2014

So This Is Doing the Rounds of Asian Trading Floors…

Ashcroft Poll Shows UKIP Turning Tory-Held Marginals Labour

Sobering polling for the Tories from Lord Ashcroft today, who has a snapshot of voting intentions in ten Tory-held marginals with Labour currently in second place (plus Corby, which went Labour mid-term). Nine of the eleven are Labour gains. Ashcroft concludes “swings to Labour appear to be related to the UKIP presence”, finding:

“UKIP could hamper Labour in Tory-held target seats by diverting voters who might otherwise switch straight from blue to red – though the evidence so far is that this effect is not yet strong enough in these seats to counteract the erosion of the Tory vote.”

28% of UKIP voters polled say they’d prefer a Labour government, 35% want a Tory win…

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

WATCH: UKIP’s First Prime Minister’s Question

UKIP’s first elected MP used his PMQ to call on David Cameron to keep his promise on a “real” Recall Bill. The Tories had been encouraged to not barrack Douglas Carswell out of respect for the people of Clacton. “I look forward to having them in the House of Commons,” said Dave. Talking about debates on Recall rather than UKIP MPs…

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Long Old Rochester Slog Begins

Incoming kitchen sink. The Tories are offering a massive choice to the people of Rochester: which Kent(ish) female councillor would you like to be their candidate?

“Kelly Tolhurst is a life-long resident of Medway and was elected to the council in 2011. She is the cabinet member for school improvement. She now runs her own marine survey business in Rochester and has served as a local councillor for over three years. In a statement, the Conservative association said she had “seen the strain that excessive immigration has put on housing and our local services.” Anna Firth lives in Sevenoaks with her husband and three children and was brought up in Essex. Formerly a barrister, she now serves on the Sevenoaks council. She was shortlisted for the Thanet South constituency but lost out to Craig Mackinlay. She is a governor of Tonbridge Grammar School for Girls.”

While every voter in the seat will be invited to take part, the pool is somewhat limited. Labour already have a female candidate in place and knocking on doors.

Dates for your diary:

October 23 – candidate announced.

November 20 – polling day.

November 21 – panic stations for someone.

UKIP remain bookies’ favourite but plenty of time for the wheels to come off…

Monday, October 13, 2014

WATCH: Carswell Silences the Establishment

Friday, October 10, 2014

If the Tories Lose in 2015, Blame Cooper Not Farage

andrew-cooper

Matthew D’Ancona once quoted a “Cameron ally” dismissing the long-term threat posed by UKIP. D’Ancona’s soothsaying source predicted Farage’s party “should reach its peak in the European elections on May 22″, leading the Telegraph columnist to urge Dave to “forget UKIP”, warn “too much time is still devoted to soothing those who might jump ship” and profess “UKIP will not be Cameron’s biggest problem”. 

The ill-fated “peak UKIP” analysis adopted by Downing Street up until recently was based on the fatally flawed insight of Cameron’s über-modernising gay-marriage architect and pollster Andrew Cooper, who told the Prime Minister two years ago that UKIP would just be a “flash in the pan”. He once argued via Powerpoint slides in a presentation to Tory MPs that UKIP’s rise was down to “mid-term grumbles” rather than anything more serious. Since then UKIP have stubbornly maintained their position in the polls, two Tory MPs have defected, thousands of true blue activists have joined the purple army and they have just taken a formerly safe Tory seat in a by-election. If the Tories lose in 2015, Cooper is the man most to blame – he may well go down in British political history as the worst adviser/pollster of the modern era…

Friday Caption Contest (UKIP Coke Party Edition)

WATCH: Farage-Gasm Descends Into Lynch Mob

Douglas Carswell didn’t fancy answering questions about Farage’s suggestion that immigrants with HIV should be banned from Britain, though not for the want of trying of the Guardian’s Nick Watt. UKIP’s new MP managed to deflect being reminded “Douglas your father was a pioneer! Your father was a pioneer in discovering aids!” by talking about Australian points systems. A party advocating a free NHS for all comers worldwide on the doorstep will lose a lot of votes…

Via @liarpoliticans.

Labour Shocked By Working Class Swing to UKIP

H+M-SWING

Labour are spinning that their vote held up and even increased by 0.8% – in reality they lost 7,000 votes and UKIP gained nearly 10,000 (up 36%) making the seat an ultra-marginal for Labour. John Mann is voicing the fears of many Labour MPs about metropolitan Miliband’s wonkish Labour:

Even loyalists like LabourList’s Mark Ferguson are cutting through the spin:

The Tories had psychologically priced in defeat in Clacton, Labour are in shock

Your By-Election Results in Full

Clacton:

Douglas Carswell (UKIP) 21,113 (59.75%)
Giles Watling (Con) 8,709 (24.64%)
Tim Young (Lab) 3,957 (11.20%)
Chris Southall (Green) 688 (1.95%)
Andy Graham (LibDem) 483 (1.37%)

Heywood and Middleton:

Liz McInnes (Lab) 11,633 (40.9%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11,016 (38.7)
Iain Gartside (Con) 3,496 (12.3%)
Anthony Smith (LibDem) 1,457 (5.1%)

UKIP lost Heywood and Middleton by 617 votes, voting Tory let Labour in…


Seen Elsewhere

Even Ed’s Friends Call Him ‘Bad Luck Magnet’ | Mail
BBC: It Was Guido Wot Won It | MediaGuido
Nick Robinson’s Britain First Selfie | Metro
Dyson: Leave German Dominated EU, Join EFTA |
How UKIP Won Rochester | Seb Payne
Labour’s Islington Problem | Harry Phibbs
Ed Lost More Than a By-Election | Labour Uncut
Labour the Biggest Losers in Rochester | Speccie
Thornberry a Gift to Farage | Nick Wood
Is Left Finally Turning Against EU? | Dan Hannan
Labour Votes Going Green | Guardian


Find out more about PLMR AD-MS


Ralph Miliband on the English…

“The Englishman is a rabid nationalist. They are perhaps the most nationalist people in the world.”



Left on Left says:

The lefties are attacking because the panellist is a millionaire and lives in a London home worth upwards of two million. Someone had best tell them he’s called Ed Miliband.


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