”…the UKIP candidate, highly likely to steal more than the 992 conservative votes that Jerry Shadbolt took in 2010, is none other than former Tory candidate for Edmonton, Andrew Charalambous. The businessman and barrister is also the founder of ‘Surya’, the world’s first eco-nightclub which hosted the official ‘Conservative Future’ party in November 2010. Activists may be confused as to whether to campaign for Cameron, who delivered them government, or for Charalambous, who delivered them… booze.”

With the Tories in a strong second place in the seat, the form set by the Oldham by-election should mean that we will be seeing the LibDems taking a sham role in this race. With the backdrop to this election, we could easily see UKIP coming third.

Talking of Euro-sceptics. Word reaches Guido from his Brusselois co-conspirator that all is not well with the outgoing Roger Helmer MEP. Normally the rules state that whoever is the next down the party list, automatically replaces a resigning MEP. However not everyone in CCHQ is enamoured with the equally Euro-sceptic replacement Rupert Matthews. He is a little eccentric and likes UFOs, but that can hardly render you unfit for selection when Norman Baker is in the government.

Some obscure quirk of the party constitution is being cited as a way of over-ruling the convention, but Helmer is having none of it. He has declared that unless Matthews is anointed his successor he won’t be resigning after all…

Well on target for Guido’s prediction of a million views. Are they listening yet?

Last Friday Guido noticed a speech that Nigel Farage had given in the European Parliament a couple of days previously was creeping up into the thousands of views on YouTube. So he decided to give it a bit of a push. It was one of the most retweeted stories from this blog for months:

The savage take down of the European-elites and their frankly shocking disregard for democracy in the face of a threat to their golden project had all the hallmarks of a Hannan-style sensation. Guido predicted it would hit a million views and he stands by that. Just four days later it’s at 300,000. The truth is powerful…

The officials in the chamber always laugh when Farage holds up the mirror, but those smirks are looking more and more like gallows humour every day. Even Mrs Fawkes, who is not in the least interested in politics, wanted the volume turned up when she overheard this one…

If their fresher recruitment material is anything to go by…

Dear Stephen,

Resignation from the European Parliament

It was a great pleasure to see you at the Party Conference in Manchester last week.

I am writing to you now to advise you that I shall be resigning my seat in the European parliament effective December 31st this year.

As with any major decision, this is driven by a number of factors. Some might say that it is high time I stood aside for a younger man. For myself, I think that twelve-and-a-half years banging my head against the same brick wall in Brussels is perhaps long enough. And I should certainly like to see more of my three fine grandsons.

But it would be disingenuous to deny that my decision is dictated in part by my increasing disillusion with the attitudes of the Conservative Party. I am finding it ever more difficult to defend the policies of the Coalition, not only on my key issues of Europe, and of climate and energy, but on a range of other matters besides.

I will have more to say about this in coming days…

Helmer not joining UKIP suggests that he is fed up with the whole EU structure more than just the Tories losing their way…

UPDATE: Helmer’s place will be taken by Rupert Matthews, who was second on the list in 2009. Guido would be surprised if Helmer was the only Tory MEP not to make it to the next election…

No surprise that this one was cheered by some activists as it drove around the conference zone…

Campbell Bannerman lined up with Tory MEPs Geoffrey van-Orden, Martin Callanan, Charles Tannock and Roger Helmer to meet the President. As the rice wine flowed, words of encouragement were dripped into the former Bow Group chairman’s ear. By the end of the trip, DCB was won over, and he went straight to CCHQ for a photo-op as soon as he touched down back in London :

Though there is very little love lost from seasoned Ukippers, there are mutters about Campbell Bannerman’s word and reputation forever being dirt. All their MEP candidates had to sign up to a code of conduct. Clause 7 has particularly grated them:

“Our MEPs will be expected to… remain as members of UKIP for the full 5-year term or otherwise retire from the Parliament.”

There is also a pending employment tribunal that is with the lawyers. Guido understands DCB kept that one quiet with his new friends…

Apparently David Campbell Bannerman has:

“…been a proud member of the Conservative Party in the past and I am proud to come home to the Conservatives today… I’ve been pleased with the robust stance taken by David Cameron and Conservative MEPs over the EU budget negotiations and I believe that it is Conservative MEPs who are working hard to defend Britain’s interests”

Which is odd given Cameron has done very little to stand up to Europe. Equally meek William Hague welcomed him with open arms:

“I am very pleased that we can welcome David Campbell Bannerman back to the Conservative Party.  The Conservative Party is bringing in people who want to work in the national interest to sort out Britain’s problems. I am sure David Campbell Bannerman will be a valuable member of our team in the European Parliament.”

A UKIP insider said “our problem is now their problem”.

UPDATE: A good spot by Total Politics. This is what David Campbell Bannerman had to say last year:

“Cameron has spent the last five years ditching Conservative policies on Europe… It’s overwhelmingly clear now that trusting Cameron with Europe will be as misguided as trusting Blair on Iraq.”

Ouch.