Friday, October 17, 2014

Delingpole Coy on Tory Return Rumour

As this video of Michael Gove wandering through James Delingpole’s garden went viral yesterday, Guido wondered if James, who joined UKIP but then failed to pass the party’s selection process, might be heading home to the Tories. He certainly seems to be enjoying Owen Paterson’s return to the limelight, and his tweets on UKIP have been very critical of late:

He tells Guido:

“It’s a great rumour. I think where UKIP and Conservatives are concerned I’m going to remain bisexual. Basically, I f**king hate politics.”

Having it both ways…

Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking

Night of the long knife for UKIP in Thurrock? Following their council defeat last night, the party has announced that their parliamentary candidate in South Basildon and East Thurrock has been deselected. Kerry Smith told his local paper he is “in the dark” about the decision, which a UKIP spokesperson says is an “internal matter”. A UKIP source tells Guido they do not have a big name lined up to replace him, rather that Smith “was not the right man” to fight the seat. Curiouser and curiouser…

UPDATE: Smith tells Guido:

“Obviously they are covering up what they’ve got planned. If I was a bad boy they would have put something in writing. I really don’t know. If you’re going to hang someone out to dry you would have the cross ready made.”

UKIP Get Thumped in Their Target Seat

UKIP have been given a wake up call in Thurrock, losing heavily to Labour in a council by-election last night. Despite constituency polling putting UKIP’s parliamentary candidate Tim Aker in first place in the seat, Labour won West Thurrock and South Stifford by a thumping 50% to UKIP’s 35%. Thurrock is right up there among UKIP’s top target seats, where incumbent Tory MP Jackie Doyle-Price has a majority of 92 and the Labour candidate, carpet-bagging former SpAd Polly Billington, is struggling to make an impact. UKIP should have won Heywood and Middleton but fell 600 votes short because they just didn’t have the resources on the ground. At every test so far, UKIP’s field operation has been their biggest weakness and the old parties will be clinging to that next year. If the promised earthquake is to happen in May, they need to get their act together and start spending big bucks on their campaign infrastructure. 

UPDATE: UKIP sources say Labour were so scared there were shadow cabinet ministers out in Thurrock campaigning for a council by-election.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

So This Is Doing the Rounds of Asian Trading Floors…

Ashcroft Poll Shows UKIP Turning Tory-Held Marginals Labour

Sobering polling for the Tories from Lord Ashcroft today, who has a snapshot of voting intentions in ten Tory-held marginals with Labour currently in second place (plus Corby, which went Labour mid-term). Nine of the eleven are Labour gains. Ashcroft concludes “swings to Labour appear to be related to the UKIP presence”, finding:

“UKIP could hamper Labour in Tory-held target seats by diverting voters who might otherwise switch straight from blue to red – though the evidence so far is that this effect is not yet strong enough in these seats to counteract the erosion of the Tory vote.”

28% of UKIP voters polled say they’d prefer a Labour government, 35% want a Tory win…

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

WATCH: UKIP’s First Prime Minister’s Question

UKIP’s first elected MP used his PMQ to call on David Cameron to keep his promise on a “real” Recall Bill. The Tories had been encouraged to not barrack Douglas Carswell out of respect for the people of Clacton. “I look forward to having them in the House of Commons,” said Dave. Talking about debates on Recall rather than UKIP MPs…

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Long Old Rochester Slog Begins

Incoming kitchen sink. The Tories are offering a massive choice to the people of Rochester: which Kent(ish) female councillor would you like to be their candidate?

“Kelly Tolhurst is a life-long resident of Medway and was elected to the council in 2011. She is the cabinet member for school improvement. She now runs her own marine survey business in Rochester and has served as a local councillor for over three years. In a statement, the Conservative association said she had “seen the strain that excessive immigration has put on housing and our local services.” Anna Firth lives in Sevenoaks with her husband and three children and was brought up in Essex. Formerly a barrister, she now serves on the Sevenoaks council. She was shortlisted for the Thanet South constituency but lost out to Craig Mackinlay. She is a governor of Tonbridge Grammar School for Girls.”

While every voter in the seat will be invited to take part, the pool is somewhat limited. Labour already have a female candidate in place and knocking on doors.

Dates for your diary:

October 23 – candidate announced.

November 20 – polling day.

November 21 – panic stations for someone.

UKIP remain bookies’ favourite but plenty of time for the wheels to come off…

Monday, October 13, 2014

WATCH: Carswell Silences the Establishment

Friday, October 10, 2014

If the Tories Lose in 2015, Blame Cooper Not Farage

andrew-cooper

Matthew D’Ancona once quoted a “Cameron ally” dismissing the long-term threat posed by UKIP. D’Ancona’s soothsaying source predicted Farage’s party “should reach its peak in the European elections on May 22″, leading the Telegraph columnist to urge Dave to “forget UKIP”, warn “too much time is still devoted to soothing those who might jump ship” and profess “UKIP will not be Cameron’s biggest problem”. 

The ill-fated “peak UKIP” analysis adopted by Downing Street up until recently was based on the fatally flawed insight of Cameron’s über-modernising gay-marriage architect and pollster Andrew Cooper, who told the Prime Minister two years ago that UKIP would just be a “flash in the pan”. He once argued via Powerpoint slides in a presentation to Tory MPs that UKIP’s rise was down to “mid-term grumbles” rather than anything more serious. Since then UKIP have stubbornly maintained their position in the polls, two Tory MPs have defected, thousands of true blue activists have joined the purple army and they have just taken a formerly safe Tory seat in a by-election. If the Tories lose in 2015, Cooper is the man most to blame – he may well go down in British political history as the worst adviser/pollster of the modern era…

Friday Caption Contest (UKIP Coke Party Edition)


Seen Elsewhere

Double Standards of Police Leaks to Guardian | Mail
My Year in Court | Charlie Brooks
Legalise Pot | NY Times
Spooks Recruited IRA Paedo | Mirror
How Police Hack Phones and Email | Times
Labour’s Minimum Wage Pledge Not Ambitious | Alan Milburn
Lord Freud’s Comments | Ryan Bourne
Obama’s Credit Card Rejected in Restauarant | Washington Times
Reckless Was Shifting In July | Rob Hutton
Unions Given Free Office Space Size of Kremlin | Harry Phibbs
Feminism to Blame for Nursing Decline | Kathy Gyngell


VOTER-RECALL
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Chris Bryant talks to the Times Diary about a famous gay actor:

“I don’t think I’ve had sex with him. He says we had sex in Clapham. I’m fairly certain I’ve never had sex south of the river”



Progressive Inclusion Champion says:

Great to hear Carswell call for inclusive policies and that UKIP must stand for first and second generation immigrants as much as the English.


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