“We’re celebrating the wrong day…”

The Cameroons believe down to their DNA that a governing majority is to be found at the centre of politics.  Last night where UKIP stood they polled 14% on average, the BBC calculating that for every 10% UKIP polls, the Tories lose 5% of their support. UKIP is clearly gaining traction as more than just a Euro-election voting option. The Cameroons kid themselves that they can be more credibly centrist and win more votes from the centre party without losing their right-of-centre base.

Last night Baroness Warsi smeared UKIP by associating them with the BNP. Their own activists don’t believe it, it is noticeable just how many activists the Conservative youth and students wings are haemorrhaging to UKIP.  This decade long splintering of the right-of-centre vote is madness, a huge opportunity for sanity is opening up ahead of the next election, one which it seems even Lord Mandelson is willing to embrace. He has briefed The Sun this morning:

“I believe a referendum on this will be necessary because parties can’t reconcile their own differences and come to a final conclusion. A referendum would be a healthy means of re-establishing a consensus among Britons about Britain’s place in the world and role Europe should play in that.”

An In/Out referendum is a chance to settle the Europe question for generations and re-unite the right-of-centre majority in Britain. UKIP and the Tories would be campaigning on the same platform. Farage and most of UKIP would in those circumstances come back into the fold, the Conservatives would then have their best shot at winning a majority in decades. Before the 2015 general election David Cameron needs once more to make a  ”big, open, comprehensive offer” and secure his place in history by winning an In/Out referendum. Nigel Farage doesn’t want to be in Brussels a day longer than he has to be, it is time to bring him home…

Tristan Pithers, who was the organiser of Ben Bradshaw’s re-election campaign “We’re Backing Ben 2010″, has defected to the Lib Dems stating:

“The class-warfare that the Labour Party is launching on the Government is shameful. It is not the kind of politics a serious Opposition should be engaging in. Mr Miliband should understand better than many that it is not your background that defines you but your ideas. If he believes that governments should not be run by privileged, sheltered millionaires then he and his Shadow Cabinet should hand in their resignations tomorrow morning.”

Yet another Blarite jumps the two Ed’s ship. 

It’s not just Labour who are playing musical chairs. No less than 40% of Leeds Conservative Future committee walked out of the Conservative Party this weekend and joined Farage’s growing bandwagon. This latest exodus from the Young Conservatives led to their thirsty chairman Ben Howlett having a near Twitter meltdown last night. He tried to claim that none of the defectors had even been members, despite some of them standing for local council seats. His big mistake was claiming he looked them up on a central membership database…

Personal data relating to an individual’s political opinions constitutes “sensitive personal data”, making it all the more sacrosanct. Where data is not being processed in a manner that complies with the Data Protection Act, the victim is entitled to compensation for damage and distress suffered. Guido is guessing that Howlett was not aware that Section 55 of the Data Protection Act states that a person must not obtain or disclose information contained in the personal data without consent. Guido’s learned friends reckon to tweet said information looks a lot like a criminal offence…

Seems the last minute nature of the panel – it was supposed to be a Ken, Boris, Brian & Jenny Question Time until the BBC changed their mind – has prompted some hasty preparation.

This was found in the Marquis of Granby pub…

It does amuse Guido that those so quick to dismiss the views of Nadine Dorries in very personal terms because they disagree with her, have showered her with praise today for going for Cameron’s jugular on today’s Daily Politics. If a sustained bitter campaign of bile was unleashed in a similar way from the right on a female Labour MP, the kickback would be very different. If Nadine really holds her party leadership in such low regard, is it not time for it to send an even clearer message? Twitter would love it…

Dave beats Ed 37% to 30% when it comes to the question of which party leader best defends Britain’s interests. No great surprise there.

To those who claim UKIP is not going to cut through what is interesting is that the pollsters Survation found that 24% of those that voted Conservative in 2010 –  almost a quarter - choose UKIP’s Nigel Farage as the party leader that best defends Britain’s interests. The crowding at the centre of politics is opening up space for UKIP on the right…

Tory MP Douglas Carswell might also have the last laugh after being slapped down by Cameron at PMQs for a lack of a sense of humour. The Mail on Sunday found that voters preferred Carswell’s policies over Cameron’s:

To be fair Dave too used to be in favour of an EU referendum, open primaries, MP right to recall laws and the rest. Before he was elected…

Lots of chatter this morning about the “shock” poll that has seen UKIP overtake the LibDems, but once again it seems people just haven’t been paying attention. UKIP bloggers like Michael Heaver have been tracking this trend for months and predicted it was only a matter of time. Although they use a slightly different methodology, last week Survation had a similarly high UKIP standing. Yesterday the Standard called an Assembly Seat for the Eurosceptics and predict that the Greens will lose both of theirs, though you wouldn’t know that from most of the coverage. The crucial figure for UKIP strategists is where this surge is coming from: with reliable pensioner voters UKIP are on 17% and ten points clear of the LibDems. For those hacks saying how shocking this all is, Guido recommends reading Anthony Wells who calls it “inevitable”.

In a Telegraph interview the drippingly wet Greg Barker when asked about the need for a change of direction following a poll giving UKIP 11% support and surveys showing 10% of Tory voters from 2010 have switched to UKIP retorted:

“We don’t need to follow UKIP into swivel-eyed rhetoric.”

As ConservativeHome notes, that is hardly the way to win back lost supporters. What struck Guido most was that Greg Barker, a screaming climate change racket fanatic, is really on dodgy ground with that line. Look into his eyes…

UPDATE: Within a minute of publishing Greg Barker sportingly tweets:

@GuidoFawkes even I have to smile at that one!—
Greg Barker (@GregBarkerMP) April 14, 2012

Ken's 'beacon of Islam' comments divisive and dangerous. In Ldn, vote @UKIP 1 and Boris 2 to keep out #AyatollahLivingstone #ukip—
Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) April 13, 2012

With Jenny Jones from the Greens is telling her supporters to back Ken with their second preferences and now this morning Nigel Farage has signalled similar UKIP support for Boris. Unlike with the Greens, the promise of a job wasn’t needed first…

UPDATE: UKIP send over a full statement from Farage:

“Ken Livingstone is dangerous and does not represent the aspirations of Old Labour at all. His comments on Islam, calling for London to be a ‘beacon for Islam’ and to spend the next four years ensuring Londoners know the teachings of Mohammed’ are divisive, opportunistic and totally unacceptable. He has clearly been learning politics from George Galloway and is pandering dangerously to one religious group. He is standing to be the Mayor for the whole of London and particularly with the Olympics and Diamond Jubilee celebrations, should be someone all Londoners can respect and be proud of. Whilst we have deep reservations about some of Boris’s views, especially his support for amnesties for illegal immigrants, we now recommend that Londoners give him their second preference vote. Ken Livingstone – Ayatollah Livingston – would be a disaster for London.”

Ouch!

Tory member and big donor Sir Peter Stringfellow is openly endorsing UKIP. He claims this is the first time he has not supported the Conservative candidate in an election in thirty two years. This normally warrants expulsion by CCHQ, but the nightclub owner has given them thousands over the years. Guido’s table-top sources whisper seductively that Stringy could be about to jump officially…