In a grim sign of the times for Kemi, the Tories were beaten by Reform in the Bromley Common & Holwood council by-election last night – handing the party their first ever elected London council seat. Reform took 34% of the vote, while the Tories collapsed by 11.8 points to 29.4%. That’s a brutal 22.9% swing…
Despite Kemi herself campaigning for the Tory candidate yesterday, Reform’s Alan Cook is now the newly elected ward councillor. A Reform source told Guido:
“Kalamity Kemi and CCHQ threw the kitchen at this campaign and still lost. We look forward to seeing the results next May across London.”
No sign of the reshuffle shifting Tory fortunes yet…
A wild set of briefings reached Guido a few weeks back making the mischievous suggestion that the Tories – facing certain electoral wipeout – had made a conscious strategic decision to ‘tack to the centre’ and abandon the coalition of non-university educated voters that propelled them to victory in 2019. Now multiple Tory sources say yesterday’s reshuffle bears that out…
‘Tacking to the centre’ is Westminster la la land speak and has no real world relevance to voters (‘left / right / centre’ is a political nerd invention, not a paradigm for how voters think). But if the Tories have decided they are only interested in prioritising the votes of a reducing number of ‘wet Tory’ seats mainly in the south of England, they are signing their own death warrant…
One problem is the LibDems, who remain competitive in most ‘centrist’ Tory territories. Tories at risk from the yellow peril say, so far, LOTO has had nothing to say about the LibDems whatsoever…
Then there’s the vibe shift on the right – a phenomenon the Tories have almost entirely failed to grasp so far. This cuts across both policy and campaigning style. Concern with immigration is the number one salient issue with every segmentation of voters, regardless of social class or education. The party’s lack of decisiveness on leaving the ECHR is costing it dearly with Tory to Reform switchers…
In reality, little is known about the direction that the new LOTO will actually take. If it’s a ‘tack to the centre’ it’s likely the outcome will be way off where any kind of target voters are, and certainly not the way to rebuild a broad governing coalition…
Labour house rag the New Statesman drops a long cover piece on Kemi Badenoch this morning after the Tory leader’s first reshuffle. It is an utterly brutal and uncompromising read…
Badenoch’s trouble with communications is a focus, with suggestions Niall Ferguson is helping her with speechwriting and her often-cited 2017 maiden speech was written by her former boss Fraser Nelson. The Statesman’s Will Lloyd also interviewed Badenoch’s former performance coach Graham Davies who claims she is a poor PMQs performer because she “doesn’t do the process, doesn’t do the practice and doesn’t like it.” When your own coach is saying it…
Staggeringly, the NS claims to have found Kemi’s old notebook from the period in which her strident comments about Sunak’s failures at the first post-election Shadow Cabinet found themselves on the pages of the Times. Notes said to be in her handwriting replicate the words leaked to the paper and include ‘affirmations’ such as:
The piece also notes that CCHQ has been gutted by staff redundancies with issues highlighted by Guido some time ago: only two press staff (actually inaccurate as there are now three), and Pads asked to work for free for shadow ministers. Badenoch herself is said to have “a habit of vanishing into her AirPods and iPad” and is “difficult to reach before 11 am.” Meanwhile donations to the Tory operation are being used to pay off debts from the election. Her team deny all the claims made in the piece – and the magazine is, after all, Labour’s chief organ. Things can only get better post-reshuffle…
On Cleverly’s first morning round back on the Tory front bench the new Shadow Housing Secretary has refused to back his party leader’s stated position on the ECHR. Who could have seen this coming?
Badenoch said at the beginning of June that she was “increasingly of the view” that the UK should leave the convention. Cleverly declined to back that on the Today Programme:
“Well, she’s commissioned a review by the Shadow Attorney General and it’s it’s right that we look at this… I completely understand her position on that… What I’m saying is she has commissioned a review and I’m going to wait to see… I’ve said what I believe.“
Pressed numerous times Cleverly repeated his previous claim that “leaving the European Convention on Human Rights will not necessarily be a silver bullet and we need to look at the wider implications… If the review sets out how we can make that work, then of course that becomes party policy. I will completely understand that and I will abide by that.”
Cleverly has been strident in his opposition to an ECHR withdrawal. Contrary lines already springing up in Badenoch’s reshuffled team…
In today’s Tory reshuffle Guido can reveal that strong performer Neil O’Brien has been promoted by Badenoch to the Shadow Cabinet – given a new role as ‘Shadow Minister for Policy Renewal and Development.’ He will lead on the policy programme as Party Conference approaches on 5 October…
O’Brien is a former SpAd to Osborne and subsequently Theresa May and served as a levelling up minister under Boris. He’s being moved from the education team up to Shadow Cabinet…
He is one of the most prolific new thinkers and he well connected to the now-influential online right. A sound hire…
James Cleverly has been appointed Shadow MHCLG, Kevin Hollinrake Party Chairman, Stuart Andrew Shadow Health and Nigel Huddleston Shadow DCMS. Five confirmed appointments so far…
UPDATE:
Julia Lopez takes DSIT from Alan Mak.
Richard Holden takes Transport from Gareth Bacon.
There is a little communications uncertainty ahead of the Tory reshuffle this afternoon – the lack of any concrete moves has set off a powder keg of media and parliamentary speculation. And unsurprisingly some dissatisfaction in Guido’s inbox at the mooted moves…
This sums up the hypothetical state of play – though Guido should emphasise this is based on internal or media rumour and not yet confirmed. Stride is said to be safe as Shadow Chancellor – a question is continually raised there over his position on various economic issues. The Tories say Cleverly will be returning – a nugget briefed to the BBC this morning – with no follow up as yet. Ed Argar has stepped down as Shadow Health Secretary – this was expected and is a voluntary move. There is a wild rumour going around (via The Telegraph) that Badenoch loyalist Rachel Maclean is set to replace Lord True as Shadow Leader of the Lords. Many Tories think that simply can’t be right…
It’s all but confirmed that Kevin Hollinrake is set to become party chairman. Stuart Andrew’s fate is said to hang in the balance with either an exit or a promotion on the cards. So far there has only been an exchange of letters with Argar before official confirmations this afternoon. Tories – not to mention the hacks – are madly discussing the rumours and are increasingly antsy. Wouldn’t it be better just to stick it all out there…
Former leader of the SNP in Westminster Ian Blackford told Times Radio why he believes Nicola Sturgeon’s claim that she spent no time in the kitchen and therefore didn’t see any of her husband’s purchases:
“She doesn’t have a passion for cooking.”