Tory Leadership Runners and Riders

This is where the potential Tory leadership contenders stand this morning:

  • Boris Johnson – Will announce he’s running within days. Jesse Norman, Nadhim Zahawi and Ben Wallace are phoning round MPs canvassing for support. Faces a battle to get on the ballot from Cameron’s allies, Remain MPs and a number of Leavers too. The story of the next few weeks is whether anyone can ‘Stop Boris’.
  • Theresa May – Definitely a goer, the leading ‘Anyone But Boris’ candidate. Her aides did a ring around yesterday and a group of 20+ Remain MPs met on Friday where her name came up. MPs believe only she can beat Boris with the members. Several Leavers would back her. But would Cameron and Osborne?
  • Michael Gove – Many Leave MPs wanted him to run but he has always had reservations. Sunday Times says he is backing Boris. Out of the running.
  • Stephen Crabb – Sets out his stall in two Sunday papers. Has the personal story but MPs say he isn’t PM material. Could be the Cameron/Osborne choice. Faces fight to the death with May to be the Remain candidate.
  • Andrea Leadsom – Name has been doing the rounds for months. Leader of the Fresh Start group which will be a player in the next few years. Potential Chancellor?
  • Liam Fox – Intends to stand. Has significant backing from the south-west contingent of MPs. Will he make a deal for a Cabinet post? Whoever squares him off will get a boost.
  • George Freeman – Who? He’s the Life Sciences minister and the Sunday Times says he’s running with the backing of 30 MPs from the 2010 and 2015 intakes. He has tweeted that he is “discussing how best to get a bold Programme of OneNation reforms centre stage. #NoPlansUPDATE: Tells Crick he’s not running.
  • Nicky Morgan – Arch-Europhile. “Friends” unsubtly briefed Sky that she was “taking soundings“, which was treated with as much derision as when she put herself forward at conference last year.
  • Jeremy Hunt – Tipped by the Mail on Sunday today, and previously by Toby Young and Peter Oborne. Could Cameron and Osborne back him? His SpAd Ed Jones has cryptically posted on Facebook that he is “losing his job”.
  • Dominic Raab – David Davis’ old chief of staff is something of a hipster choice for Tories who fancy a flutter. Name was in the mix pre-referendum and he had a good war. An outside right-wing choice, seems a long shot. UPDATE: Told Question Time tonight “I can tell you now I won’t be running.”
  • Priti Patel – Has ruled herself out.
  • George Osborne – Missing, loathed by Leavers over his scorched earth campaign and punishment budget. Isabel Oakeshott says he spent yesterday canvassing support. Has longer odds than Priti, and she’s not even in the running.
  • Sajid Javid – Eurosceptic who went with Osborne and will forever live to regret it.
  • David Davis – Said to want another go.
  • Graham Brady – Chairman of the 1922 so has influence, said to fancy himself.
  • Adam Afriyie – Genuinely not ruling himself out. LOL.
  • Alan Duncan – hard for anyone he tells to keep a straight face. Attention seeking behaviour.

  • Jeremy Hunt – well you have to dream. Will need a personality change.

So, who are you backing?

Boris and Gove Pay Tribute to Cameron

Next Prime Minister Runners and Riders

Boris Johnson 4/5

Theresa May 3/1

Michael Gove 5/1

Andrea Leadsom 10/1

Stephen Crabb 16/1

Priti Patel 16/1

George Osborne 16/1

Sajid Javid 20/1

Dominic Raab 20/1

Philip Hammond 20/1

Liam Fox 25/1

Amber Rudd 25/1

Ruth Davidson 25/1

These are the initial next PM odds via Ladbrokes. Meanwhile “friends of” dripping Europhile Nicky Morgan have told Sky she is “taking soundings”, which is a laugh. Several of the above names can immediately be discounted. Boris presser at 11am…

Cameron Resigns

An emotional Cameron announces he will stand down, new leader in place by October…

Referendum Day CCHQ Leak

cchq

Tory HQ has flooded:

From: Conservative Campaign Headquarters
To:
Subject: Access to Lower Ground Floor

There is no access to the lower ground floor at Matthew Parker Street due to flooding. Seating arrangements will be made on the Upper floor.

Down the road the Spectator’s offices have been submerged too. The Guy Newsroom remains dry, for now…

3 Tory Chickens Yet to Declare

TORY

A few last minute MP referendum declarations coming in: Charlotte Leslie has backed Brexit and Jackie Doyle-Price has chosen Remain. Good luck in Ukippy Thurrock in 2020. By Guido’s count there are 140 Tory MPs backing Leave, far higher than anyone ever predicted…

With two days to go, there are still 3 Tory MPs who have yet to publicly make up their minds. They are:

Tracey Crouch, Huw Merriman, Jesse Norman (who says he won’t declare)

Get in touch with any updates here and see the spreadsheet in full here.

Don’t be a chicken…

Time to Say-eeda Goodbye…

“Although I was never a member of the group, I did hum along to one of their songs two weeks ago…”

Warsi ‘Defection’ Unravels

The Times have watered down their mischievous first edition claiming Sayeeda Warsi has ‘defected’ from Leave to Remain. No one in Vote Leave thought she was a Brexit supporter or is aware of her doing any campaigning for them at all. She has only tweeted about Vote Leave once – ten days ago – to attack them. She did not appear on the website of pro-Leave group Muslims for Britain. In February Warsi told Eurosceptic campaigners she had not declared. When Dan Hannan invited her to join the Leave campaign, she declined. Neil Kinnock even once backed her for EU commissioner…

What about her own words? Speaking in 2013, Sayeeda said:

“Membership of the EU is in the UK’s national interest”

In 2014 she said:

“One of the things that attracted me to David Cameron was that he was not obsessed with Europe and immigration. I would hate to think that is where we end up again – obsessing with Europe and immigration.”

And in 2011 she told the Tory group of MEPs she explicitly supported being a member of the EU:

“Now is not the time to turn our backs on our friends. We must continue the work we have started together. This is the work that Margaret Thatcher began, bringing about growth through a competitive single market. And that must be our mission today. And with that, it is my great pleasure to introduce a man who is leading this mission [William Hague]. A man who fought a campaign about being in Europe but not run by Europe. He was criticised – but he was right.”

Forget dead cat, Downing Street and Sayeeda have sold the Times a pup…

Fizz All Gone from Cam’s Champagne

cameron champagne

Selling £90 bottles of champagne signed by the PM used to be easy money for Tory fundraisers. Is it a sign of the times that local associations have cut the price of an autographed bottle in half to a bargain £45? […]

+ READ MORE +

50 Signatures Secured in an Hour

Guido understands it took Vote Leave little more than an hour to secure 50 signatures of Tory MPs who would vote down Osborne’s empty threat budget:

Iain Duncan Smith, Liam Fox, Cheryl Gillan, David Jones, Owen Paterson, John Redwood, Sir Gerald Howarth, Tim Loughton, Crispin Blunt, Sir William Cash, Bernard Jenkin, Julian Lewis, Adam Afriyie, Nigel Adams, Lucy Allan, Steve Baker, Bob Blackman, Peter Bone, Andrew Bridgen, David Burrowes, Maria Caulfield, Christopher Chope, Chris Davies, Philip Davies, David TC Davies, Nadine Dorries, Steve Double, Richard Drax, Nigel Evans, Michael Fabricant, Marcus Fysh, Chris Green, Rebecca Harris, Gordon Henderson, Philip Hollobone, Adam Holloway, Kwasi Kwarteng, Jonathan Lord, Craig Mackinlay, Anne Main, Karl McCartney, Nigel Mills, Anne Marie Morris, Sheryl Murray, David Nuttall, Matthew Offord, Andrew Percy, Tom Pursglove, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Andrew Rosindell, Henry Smith, Derek Thomas, Anne Marie Trevelyan, Martin Vickers, David Warburton, Bill Wiggin, William Wragg

Little more than an hour to get 50 Tory MPs to sign a letter vowing to bring down the government.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Whitto Spotted With Black Eye After Chat With Russian Sports Minister

john

John Whittingdale was spotted sporting a nasty looking black eye on his way into work this morning. Nothing to do with him discussing the violence at the Euros with Russia’s sports minister yesterday, Guido is assured:

“John has a black eye from walking into a lamppost.

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Tyrie: Government Job Would be “Greatest Honour”

TYRIE

As expected Andrew Tyrie came out for Remain today with a speech at the Centre for Policy Studies. Equally unsurprisingly, Tyrie told the room he was open to a government job in the future:

“I’ve always said it would be the greatest honour to serve in any government.”

Asked if Nadine Dorries was right that he’d been offered a “sniff of Osborne’s dirty socks”, he replied: “David Cameron’s never offered me anything.[…]

+ READ MORE +

BLUE ON BLUE: IDS Condemns Ros Altmann

ids

IDS has condemned his former junior DWP minister Ros Atlmann for her tweet this morning saying voters should not defy Remain MPs. He tells Guido:

“This is a very strange statement. The EU referendum is about the British people having a say over our future, yet a Government minister now seems to be suggesting that they should just obey their MPs – that voters have no right to their own opinions. 

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Unelected Tory Peer Orders Voters Not to Defy Remain MPs

Quite a tweet from the universally loathed Tory minister, arch-Remainer and unelected peer Ros Altmann:

Who would have thought an unelected Baroness would have trouble understanding democracy?[…]

+ READ MORE +

Three More MPs Declare For Leave

Tory MP Paul Maynard has declared for Leave -he says the PM’s renegotiation “didn’t deliver sufficient change”. On the other side Phillip Lee has backed Remain, Andrew Tyrie and Pauline Latham are expected to follow and one-time Eurosceptic Andrew Mitchell should join them on Sunday.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Whips Pressuring Leave MPs to Defect

Screen Shot 2016-06-08 at 20.34.54

Guido is getting reports that whips are calling up moderate Leave MPs and putting pressure on them to defect to Remain. A number of Tory backbenchers say they have been contacted by whips with overtures such as “you don’t want to be associated with Farage’s view of Britain”.[…]

+ READ MORE +



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team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Heather Wheeler talks to Burton Mail about her tweet…

“It was a tongue in cheek pop after the European Parliament tweet – it was purely that. I also wanted to congratulate Team GB on a brilliant result and thirdly congratulate the Commonwealth countries who also did very well. Fourth, I am also looking forwarded to establishing new trade agreements. That was it – nothing more. Let’s just enjoy the summer!”

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