If the Tories Lose in 2015, Blame Cooper Not Farage

andrew-cooper

Matthew D’Ancona once quoted a “Cameron ally” dismissing the long-term threat posed by UKIP. D’Ancona’s soothsaying source predicted Farage’s party “should reach its peak in the European elections on May 22”, leading the Telegraph columnist to urge Dave to “forget UKIP”, warn “too much time is still devoted to soothing those who might jump ship” and profess “UKIP will not be Cameron’s biggest problem”. 

The ill-fated “peak UKIP” analysis adopted by Downing Street up until recently was based on the fatally flawed insight of Cameron’s über-modernising gay-marriage architect and pollster Andrew Cooper, who told the Prime Minister two years ago that UKIP would just be a “flash in the pan”. He once argued via Powerpoint slides in a presentation to Tory MPs that UKIP’s rise was down to “mid-term grumbles” rather than anything more serious. Since then UKIP have stubbornly maintained their position in the polls, two Tory MPs have defected, thousands of true blue activists have joined the purple army and they have just taken a formerly safe Tory seat in a by-election. If the Tories lose in 2015, Cooper is the man most to blame – he may well go down in British political history as the worst adviser/pollster of the modern era…

Huge Tory Swing in Bath

Carpet-bagging wannabe MP and renowned bon viveur Ben Howlett has been getting to know his constituency, sampling the delights of Bath’s night-life. These photos were taken at the Po Na Na club, which Guido can confirm from personal experience is a dive. A fellow reveller reports:

“He was wasted and bumping into people, he even said ‘don’t you know who I am’. This was only at 11pm. Lightweight.”

One way of swaying the voters…

Oliver Dowden Finally Finds a Seat

Congratulations to No. 10 Deputy Chief of Staff Oliver Dowden who has, after many years of trying, finally found a seat. Hertsmere has a majority of 17,605, which should be UKIP-proof for even the ultimate political class lobbyist turned government spinner. Croydon South’s loss is Hertsmere gain.

Tories Demand Investigation Into Speaker’s Spokesperson
Bercow Spinner Accused of “Serious Breach” of Impartiality

The Tories are very angry about the Speaker’s official spokesperson going native and accusing them of “aim[ing] to buy the election”, a story followed up by the Mail and the Times this morning. Guido understands Tory MP Nadhim Zahawi has written to John Bercow accusing Justine McGuinness of “a serious breach of the guidance on Speaker’s impartiality.” Zahawi demands that an investigation is carried out by “one of your deputies” because of Bercow’s “close working relationship with Ms McGuinness”, so that “full confidence and transparency and upholding the integrity of your esteemed office” can been guaranteed. As Zahawi writes:

“The guidance on Speakers impartiality is clear: “The Speaker must be above party political controversy and must be seen to be completely impartial in all public matters. All sides in the House rely on the Speaker’s disinterest, and understand that he or she must stand aside from controversy.””

He concludes: “I’m sure you will agree with me Ms McGuinness’ actions constitute a serious breach of impartiality and must be urgently investigated.” Perhaps Eleanor Laing could take a look. As someone once said, when the spokesperson needs a spokesperson…

WATCH: Have I Got News For You on ‘Sophie’

“I always get them confused with ISIS,” says Armando Iannucci of IPSO…

LISTEN: Boris Can’t Name Tory Clacton Candidate

The Mayor of London has evidently never seen Bread. Any connoisseur of eighties sitcoms knows that the Tory candidate in Clacton is actor Giles Watling, but not Boris on LBC this morning:

BJ: “We’ve got a fantastic guy called… bloody… superb man… Stirling? Girling? Something like that. What’s he called? You tell me.”

NF: “Giles…”

BJ: “Giles… come on what is it again?”

NF: “Giles… the Bread actor? Remember Bread?”

BJ: “No. Come on stop sitting there like a great big fat Buddha and tell me the name of this guy.”

NF: “No need to get personal Mr Mayor… It’s Giles Watling.”

BJ: “Giles Watling, that’s right. I knew it. Something to do with ling. Tingaling.”

Close…

Third Post-Conference Poll Puts Tories Ahead

Dave’s post-conference bounce continues this afternoon, with a national poll from Lord Ashcroft putting the Tories two points ahead of Labour. That’s the third poll since the PM’s speech to give the Tories a lead, following YouGov in the Sun on Friday and then in the Sunday Times. Still pointing toward a Labour victory…

Meating of the Clans: Osbo and BoJo BBQ

Boris and Osborne have been having secret narrative-busting family barbecues. Apparently, we are all mi-steak-en to think the Chancellor and the Mayor are anything but best buddies without a leadership ribbing in sight. As revealed in yesterday’s Sun on Sunday, the Johnsons and the Osbornes broke bread over the summer at the Mayor’s Henley pad. Guido grilled both teams to find out what was really going on…

BBQ sauces close to the Chancellor says this is nothing new and there is “no hatchet to bury”. Meanwhile the Mayor’s people insist it is a “regular thing” and a “chance to catch up informally, away from Whitehall and their officials”, and that “they are friends”. This one has legs; delicious, flame-grilled legs.

WATCH: Newmark Story Was Not Entrapment

Fleetstreet Fox’s defence of the Sunday Mirror’s Brooks Newmark story on Question Time last night is worth watching. Critics who have not read the original story and trigger happy IPSO bosses should watch:

“I think in this particular case that

[…]

+ READ MORE +

CON 35 / LAB 34: Tories Take Poll Lead for First Time Since 2012

Tax cuts are popular? Who knew![…]

+ READ MORE +

Newmark Speaks: “I Blame No One But Myself”
58% of Local Residents Say He Should Quit as an MP

“I hope people will balance the good I have done for the community over the years with a foolish thing I did one evening several months ago. Although what the Sunday Mirror did was underhand I blame no one but

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Shapps Confirms PM Will Campaign in Clacton

Many thought the PM would want to avoid the UKIP landslide. Apparently not…

In case you missed the Guy News special report during conference, it’s not looking good for the Tories on the Essex coast:

Guido is not sure a […]

+ READ MORE +



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Preston Council leader Peter Rankin explains rising anti-Semitism…

“You need to think why this anti-semitism is getting worse. It’s because of the actions of the IDF shelling schools and hospitals and killing and maiming thousands of men, women and children.”

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