Friday, December 12, 2014

Labour Oppositions Never Gain Ground in Final Six Months

Fascinating analysis on ConHome showing how Labour’s poll ratings six months out from elections have historically compared with the final election result. Guido’s graph above illustrates how “Labour consistently end up winning fewer votes in the general election than the polls would have suggested six months in advance”. Lewis Baston concludes: “Governments gain more often than oppositions: if my Conservative-supporting readers want some comfort, there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months”. Something for Tory MPs to cling onto going into next year…

Newmark Confirms Comeback is Off

Brooks Newmark has conceded defeat over the plan to stand again in Braintree. Speaking to his local paper, Newmark claims “I am extremely flattered by the lovely messages of support from members of the public and my local party asking me to reconsider my decision to step down at the next election,” adding: “However, I have decided to stick with my original decision”. As Guido revealed earlier this week, Brooks had been “wavering”, but any attempt by him to stand again was blocked by high command. The Tories say the selection process in the seat will now resume “in the near future”. In the New Year… when local associations can have shortlists thrust upon them by CCHQ.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Maguire Dave Dig Backfires

Perhaps Kev should have checked PA before his rant:

David Cameron is in Poland to visit Nazi death camp Auschwitz. The Prime Minister is travelling to the notorious site on the way back from Turkey, where he held talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The trip to Auschwitz, the first by Mr Cameron, was heralded in his speech to the Israeli Knesset in March. He has expressed his determination that memories of the atrocities are kept “strong and vibrant”.

A source points out the PM will be actually be on site during PMQs. Won’t be that easy for the leaders debates though…

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

MPs Warned to Disguise PM’s Number Over Security Concerns

Tired and emotional MPs stumbling into cabs late at night have been warned to change the Prime Minister’s name in their phone contacts to something inconspicuous, amid fears his mobile number could fall into the wrong hands. Many MPs – and researchers too – sync their mobile phone contacts to their Outlook email accounts, meaning the personal phone numbers of Cabinet members all the way up to Cameron are automatically in their phonebooks. Gavin Williamson, the PM’s PPS, has advised MPs not to have his number saved as “David Cameron”, replacing it with something less identifiable. As a Guido reader discovered over the weekend, this is probably a wise move:

GCHQ would need a full team working round the clock to keep safe the mobile phones of pissed up MPs…

Nigel Mills MP Opens New Westminster Office

Monday, December 8, 2014

#TM4PM: May Opens Up 11 Point Lead Amongst Tory Members

Theresa May’s busy, busy media month has seen has her hurtle to more than 11 points ahead of her closet rival for the Tory leadership.

ComHome’s regular voodoo poll will make for happy reading in the Home Office.

Not that there’s a vacancy, as she’s so keen to point out…

“Grumpy” Dave “Rather Rude” to Stonehenge Staff

grump

Guido leaves no stone unturned to bring you all the latest news. As revealed in yesterday’s column, staff at the Stonehenge visitors’ centre much preferred the Deputy PM to bad-tempered Dave and his jumbo entourage. “Nick was very friendly,” says a tour guide, pointing out that Clegg took time to talk to all the staff. “But the PM was very grumpy and rather rude.” Druid sources claim Cameron was only “interested in talking to Mr Lickarse from English Heritage… No one was as great as Obama though. At least he posed for selfies.” Not the first time Merlin’s caused a Tory to lose his temper…

Exclusive: Tories Block Newmark Comeback

As Guido revealed in yesterday’s Sun on Sunday, the selection process in Braintree to replace disgraced dick pic king Brooks Newmark has been cancelled amid speculation he is planning the unlikeliest of comebacks. Brooks was spotted holding secret talks with his local association after concerns about the quality of the other candidates. Despite him promising post-parliament penance working for charity, he saw his chance. Tory sources confirm from Westminster that Brooks had been “wavering”, however, Guido understands any attempt by him to stand again has been blocked by high command: “It’s not going to happen”. Just as Guido was preparing to stand as the Pyjama Party candidate…

Friday, December 5, 2014

Jittery UKIP Back on Track in Thurrock

UKIP MEP, policy chief and Thurrock parliamentary candidate Tim Aker has added councillor to list of his many jobs, last night winning the Aveley & Uplands by-election. UKIP were jittery amid concerns they would lose yesterday given they were thumped by Labour in a nearby council by-election in October, but Aker fought off the Tories’ dog whistle leaflet campaign calling him “Timür Aker” to romp home. Aker is still consistently ahead of Labour’s carpet-bagging candidate Polly Billington in the constituency polling. UKIP are bullish about his chances next year, but they will need to spend big bucks on their campaign infrastructure to translate this to a parliamentary seat…

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Mark Pritchard Arrested Over Rape Allegation

-20

Developing…

UPDATE:

v+p

 The Speaker released the news…

UPDATE II: Met letter to Speaker (via Sophy Ridge):

“I write to inform you that on 2nd December 2014, Mark Pritchard MP was arrested at 6.14pm at Holborn Police Station in London by MPS officers. Mr Pritchard was questioned by police and released on bail later the same evening at 10.16pm. The matter is subject to further investigation and is sub judice at the present time.”

Met statement:

“We can confirm that a 48-yr-old man voluntarily attended a north London police station on Tuesday 2 December where he was arrested following an allegation of rape in central London. He has been bailed to a date in early January 2015.”

UPDATE III:


Seen Elsewhere

What Did Britain Really Look Like in 1930s? | CapX
Who Is Steering Labour’s Strategy? | Ballot Box
Greens are UKIP for Young People | Telegraph
Short-Termism of CCHQ | ConHome
May Aide: CCHQ Are Being Misleading | Telegraph
Tories Planning For Second Election | Guardian
We Are Losing Cyber War | Fraser Nelson
Osborne Aide Lands Pay Rise | Mirror
The Sick Of It | Sun
UKIP MEP’s Welfare Hypocrisy | Channel 4
Rise of Angela Merkel | New Yorker


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The Economist asks Tony Blair about Wendi Deng:

“Mr Blair roundly denies any impropriety. Asked whether he was (at least) careless about his reputation, he says calmly that it is “not something I will ever talk about—I haven’t and I won’t”, and then bangs his coffee cup so loudly into its saucer that it spills and everyone in the room jumps. But did he find himself in a tangle over his friendship with Ms Deng? A large, dark pool of sweat has suddenly appeared under his armpit, spreading across an expensive blue shirt. Even Mr Blair’s close friends acknowledge that the saga damaged him—not least financially, since Mr Murdoch stopped contributing to Mr Blair’s faith foundation and cut him off from other friendly donors in America.”


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