With the PM on his way back from holidays and apparently a “pretty full diary” after that, Whitehall sources whisper to Guido that they are expecting the “reasonable clear-out” to begin tomorrow morning. There is some talk of Cabinet being cancelled first thing Tuesday and the fun and games commencing then. This would make sense given the last thing the PM would want to do is sit round the table just before putting bullets in careers. But then he could just as easily make the calls tonight and convene his new team tomorrow morning. As PPS Jake Berry tweeted, and then deleted: “I hear Cabinet should be reshuffled by tonight with everyone else knowing on Tuesday.” Tick tock…

UPDATE:  The latter option of movements happening before Cabinet is looking more likely.

International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell is a master of his own spin. At any one time over the last two years he’s been a contender for Defence, the Foreign Office or the position of Chief Whip. The latter was the only idea not greeted with howls of derision and the weekend’s papers were full of the speculation that David Davis’ former campaign manager could be about to spin himself into the job. The position of keeping the troops in line requires a paragon of virtue - or the closest thing you can get to that in Parliament – so there is an interesting turn of phrase from Ben Brogan this morning on the subject:

“He’s admired in No 10, but even his friends recognise that Thrasher’s bedside manner might not be to everyone’s taste.”

Whatever could he mean?

This morning on ConservativeHome Alistair Thompson reported that beleaguered Tory chairman Baroness Warsi was both “on holiday” and “destined for demotion“. A few hours later CCHQ went out of their way to deny one of those claims:

In the comments Thompson says CCHQ emailed ConHome to refute that Warsi was currently on a summer break, but gave no such rebuttal that she is facing the chop in the Autumn reshuffle. Telling…

It’s Kill Osborne season. Trevor Kavanagh in the Sun keeps up the pressure after another terrible round of Sunday’s for the Chancellor:

“It is Mr Osborne, not Nick Clegg’s Lib Dem rabble, who is to blame for the Government’s collapse in public esteem… In a few short weeks, Mr Osborne has shredded his reputation and turned the Coalition into a lame duck administration. It takes a special talent to cast Mr Balls on the right side of an economic argument but Mr Osborne somehow managed to do so. If the Prime Minister cannot grasp this nettle, he is finished.”

It’s amazing who you bump into on trains. Guido was chatting with this morning a loyal Cameroon source, familiar with Andrew Cooper’s polling numbers, who confirmed the speculation that Osborne is the biggest drag on the ticket in Downing Street’s private polling. Since the budget, George’s already shaky polling figures have apparently dropped through the floor and are showing no sign of recovery.

Guido understands that the reshuffle was planned for the week after the senior government appearances at Leveson. It would have been a nice distraction if things had gone disastrously. However given that the outcome of Cameron evidence was seen as an embarrassment rather than full on danger, with his tactician’s hat on, Osborne convinced Dave to delay. A month ago he would have been safe in his job, but 5 September is a very long way away…