The National Institute for Economic and Social Research released a report overnight into the UK’s domestic economic conditions. Not pretty…
The respected research institute – the oldest in the UK – blames Reeves’ tax rises “are playing a more dominant role” than Trump’s tariff announcements when it comes to economic weakness, and placed particular blame on the NICs hike, which “leaves the budget — and the UK economy as a whole — in a risky and vulnerable position. This is especially true given the downside risks posed by the global trade war and heightened geopolitical tensions; now is not the best time to take a gamble.” Some other points the report makes:
- Reeves is on course to miss her fiscal rule to balance the budget by £62.9 billion at current projections.
- The OBR forecasts Reeves relies upon have a poor record as “systematically optimistic” compared to reality. Blind dart throwing would be more accurate…
- The NICs hike will reduce employment, raise inflation, and will cost £10 billion on the £25 billion raised in lower growth.
- The UK economy will grow by 1.2% this year. Down from previous 1.5% projection…
Niesr adds that the fiscal rules will leave Reeves no option but to raise taxes to boost her ‘headroom,’ which is damaging business confidence. It concludes the budget’s tax rises leave the economy “risky and vulnerable.” A growing chorus of voices against Reeves here…
Business confidence in Starmer’s Britain has nosedived as taxation fears hit a record high, according to the British Chambers of Commerce. A whopping 63% of businesses said they were concerned about the tax burden — up from 48% before Rachel Reeves’ Budget. Another record shattered by Labour that the Treasury won’t be celebrating…
The survey shows investment is drying up and price hikes loom thanks to the “devastating” Budget. One business leader blasted Labour’s policies, saying:
“Labour’s decision to increase National Insurance for businesses has been a hammer blow to business confidence and has caused a reversal in plans to increase investment.”
Meanwhile, Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill has also gone down like a cup of cold sick. Two thirds of small businesses saying they planned to cut back on hiring and a third preparing to reduce overall headcount, according to the Federation of Small Businesses. The New Year getting off to a good start…
A post from the neutral Civil Service Twitter account of HM Treasury yesterday advertises that the budget included “no increases to the rates of income tax, National Insurance, or VAT.” A blatant lie…
The post has been ridiculed and even drew ire this morning from the IFS’ Paul Johnson who says it’s “at best dubious.” Now the Tories have finally waded in…
Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride has written to Treasury Permanent Secretary James Bowler about the post. He indicates Civil Service impartiality guidance may have been broken. The code does state:
“Honesty You must: set out the facts and relevant issues truthfully, and correct any errors as soon as possible You must not: deceive or knowingly mislead ministers, Parliament or others.”
Bowler is asked if he will “commit to ensuring all future communications are factual.” Why does Labour keep bothering with this pretence about not breaking their pledges?
Read Stride’s full letter below:
Continue reading “Stride Accuses Treasury of Breaking Civil Service Guidance Over Budget Tax Post”
Pollsters are continuing their research into Brits’ attitudes ahead of Labour’s first budget. MoreInCommon found the public prefer lower taxes to pouring more money into public services…
YouGov asked voters whether they support some tax rises to raise funds for public services – their answers won’t make happy reading for Reeves. An inheritance tax hike, one of Labour’s favourite proposed measures, is rejected by 66% of the public compared to only 34% in support. Worse still are the public’s views on a National Insurance rise – opposed by 75% of Brits. Reeves’ team briefed The Times that she would increase employers’ NI by up to 2% because “there is a universal consensus that the NHS needs more money.“ Voters don’t agree…
Six in ten voters tell YouGov their taxes are already high. As everyone has pointed out, an employer NI rise will hit employees’ pay packets. The IEA’s analysis states reduced wages resulting from a hike would cut the average employee’s take-home pay by £260. Starmer today claims the budget will “protect working people’s payslips.” Wrong…
Before Starmer gives a pitch-rolling speech for what’s predicted to be one of the largest tax-raising budgets in history Pat McFadden had the morning round. Some of the focus was on Labour’s manifesto pledge: “Labour will not increase taxes on working people”…
Since the election Labour completely changed the definition of “working people” and on the Today Programme McFadden suggested Labour wouldn’t be keeping to its pledge at all:
“We made promises in the manifesto about income tax, about National Insurance, and VAT. We will keep to those promises when the Chancellor gets to her feet on Wednesday.”
McFadden repeated the suggestion that the “working people” bit doesn’t count over on Sky. Voters seem to have thought Labour’s pledge was wider than those three taxes. Wonder what gave them that impression…
You’ve been played… pic.twitter.com/G3Ce2JLG2Q
— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) July 31, 2024
Emma Barnett pointed out that Labour’s “wordplay” and dishonesty over their pledges has “alienated and annoyed a lot of people.” To which McFadden hit back:
“If people are annoyed what they should be annoyed at is the fiscal fiction the the fictions that we inherited that have forced us to face up to this situation.”
Tetchy. The public might not see things his way…
While Labour scrambles to clarify who exactly they meant by “working people” in their manifesto’s tax pledges, one shrewd businessman knew exactly what was coming. Anthony Bamford, top Tory donor and controller of JCB, distributed a £300 million ($389 million) dividend last year, signing off just weeks before Labour came to power. Cashing out before the Labour could cash in…
With JCB profits surging 43% to an impressive £620.7 million in 2023, Bamford has now climbed to the rank of the world’s 198th-richest person. His timely move will mean the Bamford dynasty avoids any upcoming punitive taxes that Labour is eyeing. A reminder: according to the OBR, around 60% of income tax revenue comes from the top 10% of earners and 30% from the top 1%. As the Laffer curve bends, other businessmen will wish they had done the same…
Former leader of the SNP in Westminster Ian Blackford told Times Radio why he believes Nicola Sturgeon’s claim that she spent no time in the kitchen and therefore didn’t see any of her husband’s purchases:
“She doesn’t have a passion for cooking.”
