Friday, June 28, 2013

UKIP Voters Back Boris

The public don’t yet trust Boris to be PM, so says some pretty comprehensive polling released by Lord Ashcroft this morning. Only just over a third said he was capable of the running the country, while Tory voters overwhelmingly backed Dave. The UKIP results are arguably the most interesting. 35% of UKIP voters saying they would consider voting Tory if Boris were leader. Tory backbenchers must be wondering just how many would come home…

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Labour’s Favourite Think Tank Say Eds are Wrong

IPPR made a living out of producing pleasant reading for Labour, though even they couldn’t spin these figures in Ed’s favour. A YouGov poll commissioned by the Labour wonk-shop finds massive public opposition to the party’s position on welfare. 76% say the system is too soft on people who could work that don’t, with just 10% taking up Ed’s line backing those on benefits. Who is the type of person the public is most sympathetic to protecting? Pensioners, the very group that Balls has targeted for pension cuts if Labour win in 2015. With friends like these…

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

GRAPH: Cuts By Department

Pickles shows himself as the “model of lean government” with a 10% cut, alongside Grayling and Maude, while the Chancellor leads by example. Hammond and May get off lightly…

Friday, June 21, 2013

Osborne Borrowed More Last Year

Turns out government borrowing actually rose last year. Revised ONS figures show public sector borrowing for 2012-13 was £118.8 billion, up from £118.5 billion the year before. This week’s Speccie cover article gets to the point:

“When the Chancellor stands up to present his spending review next Wednesday it will be with the reputation of a crazed axeman. Much of the country, whether it thinks it a good thing or not, subscribes to the belief that George Osborne is shrinking the state year-on-year, slicing here, chopping there. In a recent poll 58 per cent of respondents agreed with the proposition that Osborne’s ‘austerity drive’ is ‘harming the economy’… Osborne is no mad axeman but a bodger blundering around with a blunt chisel.”

Osborne wants to portray himself as a responsible, sound money Chancellor making tough choices, streamlining an overbearing state and making government more efficient. The truth is borrowing, and as the graph below shows, spending is still going up:

The Treasury is pushing the fact that borrowing fell last month year-on-year, which is encouraging. But to say they are not doing enough is an understatement…

See also: Tale of Two Austerities

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Cyber Wars: UKIP Trumping Tories

UKIP’s efforts to do battle online are clearly paying off. According to analysis done by UK General Election 2015, the party is gaining Twitter followers and Facebook likes at a considerably greater rate than its opponents, with the Tories in particular falling way short. By way of comparison, over the same period @GuidoFawkes gained some 7,000 followers and now has 109,745 followers – more than any UK political party. Social media campaigning will have a big part to play over the next two years, so these stats make interesting reading…

UPDATE: Just noticed that LetBritainDecide.org seems to redirect UKIP.org. Not to be confused with CCHQ’s LetBritainDecide.com, or rather it is…

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

GRAPH: Tories Will Lose If They Ditch Dave

Two weeks ago Dave’s key defence against Tory plotters, his relative popularity compared to the party, was wobbling. Today Peter Kellner has some figures that will have Downing Street breathing a collective sigh of relief. Ed is less popular than Labour, somehow Clegg is less popular than the LibDems, though Cameron is again preferred to his party. Kellner says this is the graph that shows the Tories will lose in 2015 if they ditch Dave…

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Unemployment Stats in Full

  • Employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 71.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from November 2012 to January 2013
  • up 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier.
  • 29.76 million people in employment aged 16 and over, up 24,000 from November 2012 to January 2013
  • up 432,000 from a year earlier.
  • unemployment rate was 7.8%, unchanged from November 2012 to January 2013
  • down 0.4 percentage points from a year earlier
  • 2.51 million unemployed people, down 5,000 from November 2012 to January 2013 and down 88,000 from a year earlier
  • number employed in public sector at lowest level since 2001 at 5.7million
  • number of people claiming jobseeker’s allowance last month fell by 8,600 to 1.51 million

That last number one for the Tories to cling on to…

Thursday, May 23, 2013

ABC Online Figures for Newspaper Websites

UK national newspaper website figures for the last month are out, with the Mail still well out a head. The percentage change is year on year.

-MailOnline: 7,833,182 (up 39%)

-Guardian.co.uk: 4,771,866 (up 23.1%)

-Telegraph.co.uk: 3,041,594 (up 29.8%)

-Mirror: 1,176,217 (up 78%)

-The Sun: 1,698,572 (up 11%)

-Independent: 1,131,150 (62.5%)

-Metro: 406,187 (38,5%)

For the sake of comparison Guido had 516,730 unique visitors in April (up 53%).

Despite the new pay-wall, the Telegraph is beginning to catch up with the freebie Guardian.

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Voters Trash Clegg’s Failed Fairness Mantra

Clegg’s strategy in coalition has been to promote the LibDems as the party of fairness. Apparently with no sense of irony, he has attacked the Tories for failing to “adopt the politics of fairness”, told Martha Kearney he is the “voice of fairness” in government, and dreamt up that catchy-as-it-is-believable slogan “Building a fairer Britain”. Unfortunately for Nick, repeating something over and over doesn’t mean the public will believe him.

A YouGov poll out this morning finds only 6% think Clegg would be the most effective leader at making Britain a fairer place. Nearly double that, 11%, choose Nigel Farage as the fairest party leader. There’s bad news for Ed too, he comes second to Dave by 21% to 19%. Topping the poll is public apathy: 29% said no leader could deliver a fairer society. People might disagree about what fairness means, but nearly everyone agrees Clegg won’t deliver it…

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Even Labour Supporters are Hardening on Hand Outs

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation have actually put out something interesting for a change. Over the last thirty years, Labour supporters’ attitudes to welfare have hardened considerably. In the late eighties 41% believed social injustice was the main cause of poverty, now that figure is just 27%. This can be explained in part by the number that blame laziness amongst those on benefits, up from 13% to 22%. 31% of Labour backers see welfare recipients as undeserving, compared to just 21% thirty years ago. The biggest jump: 46% now believe the welfare state encourages dependency, up from just 16% in 1987. You can see how attitudes have changed among Labour supporters by clicking on the interactive chart above. Ed may want to lead the party of welfare, but his voters are not with him.


Seen Elsewhere

Does Europe Really Want Britain to Quit? | Nick Wood
Immigration Nation | Hopi Sen
Tories Choose Anti-Israel Candidate in Rochester | JC
Osborne’s Daycare Obsession is a Time Bomb | Kathy Gyngell
BBC Marr Pinko Trying to Ban the Queen | Speccie
Eric Hobsbawm: Companion of Dishonour | Standpoint
Guido Party Gossip | Iain Dale
Russell Brand Comes Out as 9/11 Truther | Guardian
Health Revolution is Underway | Fraser Nelson
UKIP Gets Professional | Red Box
Kelly Tolhurst Wins Rochester Open Primary | BBC


VOTER-RECALL
Find out more about PLMR


Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann on Cameron’s refusal to pay the £1.7 billion EU bill by December 1st:

“Well, then he’s gonna pay on December 2nd”



Mycroft says:

Have you read the last bit of Animal Farm?

You know where the animals are looking through the Farmhouse window?

My TV screen was that window at lunch-time today.

Be careful, the sudden self-congratulatory tone, the slightly pudgy outline of indulgence and you become exactly what you should despise.

The jolly face of the Quisling Cameron poses for your camera has mesmerised and deceived you, you who were once not so deceived.

You were no firebrand, you were a damp squib in my opinion, sorry.

You need a damned good kick up the ahse!


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