Friday, January 18, 2013

Misery Index: Winter of Discontent

As parts of the country grind to a standstill at the first sight of snow, it is little surprise we are feeling sad this January. Detoxing, dieting, giving up alcohol – Guido calls them quitters – the New Year naysayers have been collectively bringing us down this month. Our increased misery may also have something to do with inflation being on the up, though at least unemployment is holding at 7.8%. Roll on February…

N.B. stats bods can check Guido’s adding up here.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Saturday Seven Up

This week traffic halved as people enjoyed the holidays and a mere 53,289 visitors visited 142,122 times viewing 215,522 pages. The top stories in order of popularity were:

You’re either in front of Guido, or behind…

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Labour Taxed Poor More and Rich Less Than Coalition

With the dividing lines for the next election seemingly drawn at PMQs, one of Ed’s main attack lines is the claim that the Tories are hurting the poor and helping the rich. But do the stats back him up? According to HMRC these are the average income tax rates across the pay scale comparing Labour between 2009-10 and the Coalition for 2012-13:

income-tax

It is clear that lower earners paid more income tax under Labour than they do under the Coalition, while high earners are paying more now than they did back in 2009-10. This graph shows the relative percentage change in average income tax rates between Labour and the Coalition:

income-tax-2

Guido isn’t too happy about the higher-earners end of things, believing that the rich have suffered enough already and we are beyond Laffer optimal tax rates, though you can bet the Conservatives are rather pleased they listened to the LibDems and raised the lower threshold. This should be hammered home by the Tories every single day until the election…

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Saturday 7-Up

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Saturday Seven Up

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Misery Index: Happy Days

We are officially the happiest we have ever been since the Coalition came to power. Unemployment has fallen below the crucial 8% mark, inflation has dipped to 2.6% and the Public Sector Net Cash Requirement has plummeted. Best of all today’s better than expected 1% GDP growth sees this month’s misery index fall to an all-time low of 10.68. The Treasury insists complacency will not set in.

Enjoy it while it lasts…

N.B. stats bods can check Guido’s adding up here.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

David Blanchflower’s Terrible Tips

Whenever Gordon Brown’s favourite former appointee to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, David Blanchflower, makes a prediction, it’s probably a safe bet to expect the exact opposite to come true. Back in 2009 the out-of-luck economist looked into his evidently faulty crystal ball and predicted that unemployment would top 5 million if the Tories came into power. As of yesterday it stands at 2.53 million and falling. David is very nearly 100% wrong – quite a wide margin of error.

He forecast that unemployment would surge past 3 million to 3.4 million in 2010. It peaked at 2.5 million in 2010.

On Tuesday Blanchflower was at it again, wagering that the new set of unemployment figures would bring bad news:

Lo and behold once again the opposite happened, with unemployment dropping by 50,000 to below 8%. Keep trying David, you might get one right eventually…

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Double Dip Pipped

This afternoon research group NIESR reports that the UK economy grew by 0.8% in the last quarter, all but bringing an end to the double dip recession:

“Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in September after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in August 2012. This is the most robust rate of growth since the three months to July 2010.”

The overall growth forecast is remains poor. Still, handy timing for Dave…

How Many Britons Are Net Recipients of the State?

Poll-leading Mitt Romney’s hopes of defeating Barack Obama were written off by many when he attacked the 47% of Americans who don’t pay federal income tax last month. At the time Guido’s own number-crunching revealed that 46% of the British electorate are dependent on the state:

Now a report by the Centre for Policy Studies has found that 53.4% of UK households receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes. That figure has gone up by almost 10% since 2000:

This is why the IDS-Osborne battle is so significant…

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

How Many Working Age British Voters Don’t Pay Income Tax?

Mitt Romney’s highlighting of the 47% of Americans who don’t pay federal income tax has got Guido thinking this morning. Having crunched the numbers it seems that a far greater number of Britons chip in to the Treasury than our stateside counterparts. Of the 34.1 million people of working age in the UK some 30.1 million pay income tax, leaving just 12% not contributing. Using Romney’s less reasonable registered voter method – including other groups such as the elderly – that figure rises to 35%.

Over at the Speccie Fraser Nelson has some interesting research of his own, noting the large number of public sector “dependents” who vote Tory. Fraser goes on: “If you add Brits who derive most of their income from government jobs or welfare, you’d get to about half of registered voters”.

46.1 million registered voters, a public sector workforce of 5.9 million5.8 million on working age benefits and 9.5 million recipients of old-age pensions – that’s approximately 46% of voters who could be described as dependent on the government. They might not all vote Labour but that’s still quite a figure…


Seen Elsewhere

Guido’s Column | Sun
NUT’s Loony Defence of Status Quo | Jago Pearson
A Dozen Reasons to Be Cheerful | John McTernan
Political Bloggers Are Equal Opportunities Attackers | ConHome
Michael Gove Should Resign | Conservative Women
Sarah Wollaston’s Naming and Shaming of Bloggers | LibDemVoice
Fraser Nelson: Put Your Money on Ed Miliband to Win | Guardian
Guido Fawkes is Too Aggressive | The Times
Ditch Tobacco Plain Packaging | Grassroots Conservatives
What Farage, Boris and Rob Ford Have in Common | William Walter
Labour Spell New Adviser’s Name Wrong | ITV


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Rod Liddle on the loony UN sexism special rapporteur:

“There is more sexism in Britain than in any other country in the world, according to a mad woman who has been sent here by the United Nations.

Rashida Manjoo is a part-time professor of law at Cape Town University in the totally non-sexist country of South Africa (otherwise known as Rape Capital Of The World).

Mrs Magoo has been wandering around with her notebook and is appalled by the sexist “boys’ club” culture here, apparently.

I don’t doubt we still have sexism in the UK. But is it worse than in, say, Saudi Arabia, d’you think, honey-lamb? Or about 175 other countries? Get a grip, you doolally old bat.”



orkneylad says:

What’s he been doing FFS, mining bitcoins?


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