Today’s growth figures from the ONS are lower than expected:

• GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 2015 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 2014.
• Output increased in services by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2015. The other 3 main industrial groupings within the economy decreased, with construction falling by 1.6%, production by 0.1% and agriculture by 0.2%.

Ed Balls?

It is not so #SexyMiliband according to a YouGov survey bring further proof that we have passed peak #SexyMiliband. Nick Clegg is the housewife’s choice, Cameron is sloppy seconds. Ed comes a distant third just ahead of Nigel Farage.

MiliFandom is clearly a minority interest…

IFS verdict…

Here are the top lines:

• Tories: debt as a share of national income reduced from 80% in 2014–15 to 72% by 2019–20
• Labour, Liberal Democrat and SNP plans, debt in 2019–20 could be more like 77%, 75% and 78% respectively
• Labour have been much less clear about exactly what level of deficit reduction they want to achieve than the Tories
• The Tories need to spell out substantially more detail of how they will deliver the overall fiscal targets they have set themselves
• The SNP’s fiscal numbers imply the same reduction in borrowing over the next parliament as Labour
• Under the SNP, the period of austerity would be longer than under the other three parties

Ultimately, the IFS is scathing of all parties:

“the electorate is at best armed with only an incomplete picture of what they can expect from any of these four parties”

Even under the most ‘austere’ plans, those of the Tories, debt as a share of national income will still be 72%…

A LibDem leaflet from Wantage: 

Guido was commended by Royal Statistical Society at the Statistical Excellence in Journalism Awards 2014, so is in a strong position to pass judgement on such matters. Looks fine to him…

Even after Labour’s manifesto mea culpa about fiscal responsibility, Ed would still not say he thought Labour spent too much before the crisis. He had his audience cheering as he yelled “absolutely we were right to invest in those things”:

Miliband told the Labour manifesto launch:

“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…”

Really, Ed?

The financial crisis caused the deficit that Labour ran in 2002/3?

And grew in 2003/4?

And in 2004/5?

And in 2005/6?

“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…” in 2006/7?

And in 2007/8?

Really, Ed?