Labour’s new poster out tonight is as deliberately misleading as the Tory effort earlier this week. What do the OBR say about Osborne’s spending plans? In 2020 public spending will fall to 35% of GDP, “below the previous post-war lows reached in 1957-58 and 1999-00 to what would probably be its lowest level in 80 years”. So as a proportion of GDP spending falls to 1930s levels, but in actual day-to-day real terms the OBR says: “by 2019-20 day-to-day spending on public services would be at its lowest level since 2002-03 in real terms“. Five more months of this to go…
Guido has in the past reflected on the accuracy of Danny Blanchflower’s economic forecasting. How have his more recent forecasts of doom and gloom fared?
“Pay is going nowhere,” said the sage of Dartmouth last month, warning “we won’t see real wage growth until 2016 at the earliest”. Dopey Danny was following up on his June prediction that there is “little likelihood of real wage growth rising in the months ahead”. He also made the same warning in May: “I wish the MPC good luck with their forecast that real wages are set to rise in the second half of 2014”.
Lo and behold, today’s ONS data shows that “average earnings are now definitely rising”. He really should throw away his crystal ball…
The Electoral Commission today reveals how much each party spent on their European election campaigns. The big bucks splashed by the Tories and UKIP meant they paid six figures for each seat won. Labour got best value for money, spending just over a million quid for their 20 seats, or just over £50,000 per MEP.
The LibDems blew £1.5 million with just one MEP to show for it…
Fascinating analysis on ConHome showing how Labour’s poll ratings six months out from elections have historically compared with the final election result. Guido’s graph above illustrates how “Labour consistently end up winning fewer votes in the general election than the polls would have suggested six months in advance”. Lewis Baston concludes: “Governments gain more often than oppositions: if my Conservative-supporting readers want some comfort, there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months”. Something for Tory MPs to cling onto going into next year…
Firefighting the somewhat unfortunate endorsement of UKIP by Nick Griffin, telly’s Suzanne Evans produced the stat of the day:
From whence came this macabre revelation? Archbishop Cranmer has found the answer:
“The article to which she refers is ‘Satanism in Britain Today’ by Graham Harvey in the Journal of Contemporary Religion (10:3, 1995). So it’s not so contemporary, but certainly worth a bit of extrapolation. Harvey found that 45 per cent of self-identifying Satanists voted Conservative in the 1992 General Election.”
So Suzanne was only slightly exaggerating. Lynton Crosby’s core vote strategy in action…
Via the ONS:
- Net migration was 260,000 last year, a statistically significant increase from 182,000 in the previous 12 months.
- It remains below the peak of 320,000 in the year ending June 2005.
- 583,000 people immigrated last year, a statistically significant increase from 502,000 in the previous 12 months. There were statistically significant increases in immigration of EU (up 45,000) and non-EU (up 30,000) citizens.
- 323,000 people emigrated last year.
- National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations to adult overseas nationals increased by 12% to 668,000 in the year ending September 2014 from the previous year. Romanian citizens had the highest number of registrations (104,000), followed by Polish citizens (98,000).
- 32,000 Romanian and Bulgarian citizens immigrated last year, a statistically significant increase from 18,000 in the previous 12 months.
So the government’s net migration figure has gone the same way as the deficit figure, the wrong way…
Guido is donning his brown cords for the Political Studies Association awards dinner this evening. The PSA have done some very early festive polling to find out who the public would most like to stand under the mistletoe with. Clegg soars to 2%…
It is four years this month since Guido began recording the misery of the nation. One of this government’s crowning achievements must surely be the decline in unhappiness among the population on their watch. Only the continuing deficit is preventing the index declining further.[…]
Parliament will debate Nick Clegg’s Recall fudge this afternoon. A clear choice for MPs to choose between Clegg’s Bill, which only lets the public boot out corrupt politicians if their fellow politicians agree, or Zac Goldsmith’s Real Recall amendment, which actually gives the public a say.[…]
Guido can only doff his cap to the LibDems for this piece of statistical brilliance. The unrivalled data wizards over at Great George Street, for whom any budding student of stats should take inspiration, have produced the following masterpiece on their membership numbers:
With no axes or numbers whatsoever, it really is a quite beautiful example of how to make a 5% increase in members over five quarters look like a 300% rise.[…]
Last week Guido pointed out the negative impact that the former Prime Mentalist was having on the No campaign’s poll ratings after getting involved late in the referendum. Yesterday’s YouGov bombshell shows the Jonah effect with even greater clarity. While many may dismiss this a terrible coincidence, they should note it is Scottish Labour support that is haemorrhaging to the optimism of the Yes campaign.[…]
This week 130,493 visitors visited 340,519 times viewing 550,678 pages. The top stories in order of popularity were:
- Rotherham Council’s £125,000 Officers
- Just How “Delighted” Is UKIP’s Clacton Candidate?
- + + + Douglas Carswell Defects to UKIP + + +
- Rotherham Town Hall Tyrants – Where Are They Now?
A YouGov poll for the Times RedBox finds that 71% of the country think that (former) Labour South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner should resign.
Interestingly the poll finds that now more than half of the country “have little or no confidence in the police.”
Even Wright’s own deputy has walked, saying he should go and everyone from the Prime Minister to Yvette Cooper agrees.[…]