Above is the Guy News rolling poll of polls from the last seven days. Tories and Others up tick 1%. Lab / Lib unchanged.

Elsewhere YouGov reveal that 35% or 15 million voters don’t know / haven’t made up their minds.  Guido suspects most of them won’t vote…

Above is the Guy News rolling poll of polls from the last seven days. Tories and Labour down slightly, LibDems benefitting. Others unchanged.

Elsewhere YouGov reveal that 43% of voters are bored with the campaign already…

Charlie Whelan will be wanting his money back: the once McBride/Draper controlled website now under new management has gone way off message tonight.  Advised by Labour supporting YouGov pollster Peter Kellner, the website is using various statistical methods to forecast the May 6 result. Using polynomial trending (no, Guido doesn’t understand it either) they are forecasting a 9% lead for the Tories on polling day. In other words, a comfortable Tory majority…

Above is the Guy News poll of polls from the last seven days. The expanded Guy Newsroom will over the next few weeks bring Guido Morning TV, Guidorama and Guy News with Harry and Emily.  Fun, frolics and frills from the campaign frontline…

Mixed messages abound from pollsters, here is another one: a Mail/BPIX poll suggests that the biggest Tory weakness is a lack of a clear message.  Labour’s key attack spin repeats endlessly ‘the same old Tories’ and ‘Osborne is too inexperienced‘ lines. Voters don’t think these issues are problems to the extent that they don’t know what the Tories stand for at the election.

Look at what would make voters more likely to vote Tory, traditional tougher messages on crime and immigration.  Tax and spending cuts would also sway voters.

The Tory detox period is over, voters want the traditional medicine to cure the nation’s ills…

Frustration with politicians is rightly at an all time high. Though about ten points ahead there is still no really coherent ideology from the Conservatives. No one is quite sure in what direction the chaotic and shambolic Downing St operation is going to go next, the whole thing is a mess. Guido normally leaves the psephology to Political Betting but he noted with some interest the figures buried in the latest YouGov data.

25% of people compared to 23% think that Labour chop and change too much and are more incoherent than the Tories. However 34% think they are both rubbish. 36% reckon neither party is led by people of any ability. Hardly a ringing endorsement. Looks like the stay at homes have it.

YouGov’s poll for the Sun found that if Mr Brown was replaced, 19% would be more likely to vote Labour, compared to 14% who said they would be more likely to back the party if he stayed on. 

That’s why CCHQ wants Gordon where he is…

YouGov polled 4,167 British adults on January 5 & 6.

YouGov’s poll for the Sun was obviously taken this was before today’s fun and games…

On his blog Bad Al Campbell argues that Dave hasn’t sealed the deal with the electorate thus; “December 5, 1996, Gallup poll. Labour 59. Tories 22. Now that’s what I call a lead. And they’re nowhere near it, because they have not sealed the deal, because they’re not serious on policy, because they haven’t changed much, and because a lot of people don’t really like them.”

Bad Al is really grasping with this line of spin. Labour are 19% behind in the polls; suggesting that if people don’t really like the Tories, they must despise Labour. The voters have come to a settled view of Gordon – that he is a useless weirdo. You can’t spin your way out of that…

Note that Labour’s number drops back before the end of their conference, immediately after Brown’s speech.  In contrast the speeches of Clegg and Cameron lifted their respective party’s numbers.  He is a Jonah for the Labour Party and the country…