Ashcroft Poll: UKIP Set To Take Thurrock

thurrock
Louise Mensch, who has donated £19,000 to assist Tory candidates standing against UKIP candidates, spent much of last week explaining why polls are wrong. Perhaps it is because Guido is by the sunny seaside on the Atlantic coast that he can hear the faint sound of sobbing this morning. Tim Aker looks set to have become a councillor, MEP and an MP in the space of one amazing year. All that talk of the ‘Kippers having no ground game looks misplaced. High contact rates match their polling lead. They have learnt from the old LibDem strategy of focusing their resources on a few winnable seats…

UPDATE:

Farage Takes 9% Lead in Thanet South

unnamed (1)Alert Louise Mensch…south thanet contact

Twice as many local voters say they have met Farage rather than the Labour or Tory candidate. In fact contact rates in terms of door knocking, leafleting and tele-canvassing all give the campaign to UKIP. It appears the Tories are throwing only a kitchenette at the Thanet South… 

Survation/Mirror Poll Has 4% Lead for Tories

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Headline voting intention (with change in brackets since last Survation poll on 17th April): CON 33% (-1); LAB 29% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 10% (+3); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 4% (+1); AP 1% (-1). Outlier or…

Tories Down 7 Points in UKIP Target Seats

ComRes have polled ten Conservative-held UKIP target seats, finding the Tories are 7.3% down on their vote share since 2010:

UKIP’s vote share is up 15.4% since 2010, but they are still well behind in third place. Voters in these marginals prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM by 54% to 32%. Breaking: poll shows Tories to hold safe seats…

Tory Lead Falls to 2 Points With ICM

Down from 39% last week…

Full story on Guardian.

The “Pitiless Empiricism” of Elections

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Guido has said this before and he will say it again: if the Tories lose this election a large part of the blame belongs to the former Downing Street pollster Andrew Cooper, who claimed that UKIP were a “flash in the pan”. Here is the evidence in hard data form from YouGov; 5 percentage points of the 2010 Tory vote has gone to UKIP, in exchange for 3 percentage points of the LibDem vote. Pollsters and statisticians can argue about what might have been, the data suggests that the Cameroon positioning which claimed the Conservatives could win from the centre has cost at least 2 percentage points. The number of former LibDems wooed is fewer than the number of former Tories spurned and now voting UKIP.

Cooper’s “peak UKIP” theory does not appear to have been anything more than a theory. This YouGov data, based on re-interviewing 31,210 voters polled in 2010, shows Cooper’s hunch that UKIP were a “flash in the pan” which would fade away and return to the blue column was just a hunch, motivated by an ideological preference for centrist modernisation rather than any campaigning logic. Cooper was once lionised by the metropolitan commentariat – in 2011 Matthew D’Ancona claimed that his “great gift to the Conservative Party has not been liberal ideology, but a pitiless empiricism”. A real judgement based on pitiless empiricism is about to be delivered by the voters. Guido suspects that Cooper’s years as Downing Street’s Director of Strategy will be seen as wasted years when the modernisers’ distaste for conservative instincts was over indulged at the expense of a strategy to both secure the base and gain new voters. An arrogant and recklessly rushed modernisation has fatally split the right-of-centre vote.

Ashcroft: Murphy and Dougie Set to Lose Seats to SNP

Jim Murphy is trailing the SNP by 9 points in his East Renfrewshire seat, according to the latest Ashcroft constituency polling.

Wee Dougie Alexander is also behind by 11 points in Paisley.

LibDem MP for Berwickshire Michael Moore’s seat falls to the Tories.

Ming Campbell and Charlie Kennedy both fall to the SNP.

Scotland is turning yellow…

Survation/Mirror Snap Poll: Miliband Wins

LibDems Face Tory Wipeout in South West

sw-poll

If this poll is correct the Tories will take all their coalition colleague’s seats.

Tory party chairman Grant Shapps has been predicting strong gains in the South West for months…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Ashcroft: Labour Lead in Key Marginals

There are three more gains for Labour in the latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s polls in key Tory-held marginals. Mike Freer is facing a fight to defend his 12 point majority in Finchley and Golders Green:

And things are going to be tight for Edward Timpson in Crewe and Nantwich:

And Tory MP Iain Stewart is currently behind in Milton Keynes South:

There are also ties in Rossendale and Darwen and South Ribble.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Miliband Beats His Wife

As does Farage.

But Miriam Clegg really thrashes Nick in the Daily Mail poll of Leaders vs Spouses[…]

+ READ MORE +

ICM Gives Tories 6% Lead

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That’s tomorrow’s Guardian splash sorted…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Public Wake Up to Election

After five years of the public ignoring politics, it seems the election is finally getting cut through. Though Labour will disappointed at how little the public noticed their non-dom hit:

Don’t you know there’s a war on?[…]

+ READ MORE +

Ipsos MORI: Not a Single Labour PPC Thinks the Deficit is Important

From this morning’s Ipsos Mori election briefing:

Not a single potential Labour MP thinks the government spending, or the deficit is most important.

Kerching!

Via Paul Blanchard
[…]

+ READ MORE +

The Day the Polls Didn’t Turn

This is a poll of polls average for today only:

Worth noting that the Labour figure is inflated by their very high rating with Panelbase.

As you can see below, TNS, Panelbase and Survation all put Labour ahead, but the latest polls out tonight from ComRes and YouGov have the Tories in first:

Which makes this Guardian splash, released before the ComRes and YouGov polls, look rather premature:

day-pols-didnt-turn

Too late to change the splash?[…]

+ READ MORE +

Ashcroft Tory Marginal Poll: One More Blue Seat Turns Red

According to Ashcroft’s latest projection, the following Tory MPs’ seats are on course to fall to Labour: Bob Blackman (Harrow East), Mike Weatherley (Hove), David Morris (Morecambe and Lunesdale), James Wharton (Stockton South).

Better news for Paul Maynard (Blackpool North and Cleveleys), Richard Graham (Gloucester), Chris Skidmore (Kingswood), Nicky Morgan (Loughborough) and Andrew Stephenson (Pendle), all set to hold on. […]

+ READ MORE +



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Heather Wheeler talks to Burton Mail about her tweet…

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