Tories Lead By 5 With Ipsos Mori

But the Tory lead is just one point with YouGov:

The final polls come in in seven days…

Ashcroft: Farage and Clegg Behind

Worth taking with a large pinch of salt because Ashcroft doesn’t prompt candidates’ names, but he has UKIP behind in South Thanet:

And Clegg trailing in Sheffield Hallam:

Guido has a considerable amount of money saying otherwise in Sheffield…

Jim Murphy Reacts to Ipsos Mori Poll

An unfortuante juxtaposition as news of Labour’s impending doom in Scotland broke on Sky…


Ipsos Mori Poll Predicts Wipeout in Scotland

Look at those zeroes…

TNS: Tories 1 Point Ahead

TNS have usually had Labour in front during the last few weeks, but today the Tories lead by one… 

Tories Lead By 6 With Ashcroft

Following the ICM poll putting the Tories three points ahead, now Ashcroft gives them a lead of six:

Labour lead by one with YouGov and three with Populus today.

Meanwhile the Ashcroft focus group was asked who would play each party leader in a film of their life:

Nicola Sturgeon: Dame Helen Mirren

Jim Murphy: Peter Capaldi, Jim Carrey or Ewan McGregor

Ruth Davidson: Sue Perkins

David Cameron: Hugh Grant or Colin Firth

Ed Miliband: Woody Allen


‘Gold Standard’ ICM Poll: Tory Lead Up to 3 Points

Margin of error. Pump it!

Ashcroft Poll: UKIP Set To Take Thurrock

Louise Mensch, who has donated £19,000 to assist Tory candidates standing against UKIP candidates, spent much of last week explaining why polls are wrong. Perhaps it is because Guido is by the sunny seaside on the Atlantic coast that he can hear the faint sound of sobbing this morning. Tim Aker looks set to have become a councillor, MEP and an MP in the space of one amazing year. All that talk of the ‘Kippers having no ground game looks misplaced. High contact rates match their polling lead. They have learnt from the old LibDem strategy of focusing their resources on a few winnable seats…


Farage Takes 9% Lead in Thanet South

unnamed (1)Alert Louise Mensch…south thanet contact

Twice as many local voters say they have met Farage rather than the Labour or Tory candidate. In fact contact rates in terms of door knocking, leafleting and tele-canvassing all give the campaign to UKIP. It appears the Tories are throwing only a kitchenette at the Thanet South… […]


Survation/Mirror Poll Has 4% Lead for Tories


Headline voting intention (with change in brackets since last Survation poll on 17th April): CON 33% (-1); LAB 29% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 10% (+3); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 4% (+1); AP 1% (-1). Outlier or…[…]


Tories Down 7 Points in UKIP Target Seats

ComRes have polled ten Conservative-held UKIP target seats, finding the Tories are 7.3% down on their vote share since 2010:

UKIP’s vote share is up 15.4% since 2010, but they are still well behind in third place. Voters in these marginals prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM by 54% to 32%.[…]


Tory Lead Falls to 2 Points With ICM

Down from 39% last week…

Full story on Guardian.


The “Pitiless Empiricism” of Elections


Guido has said this before and he will say it again: if the Tories lose this election a large part of the blame belongs to the former Downing Street pollster Andrew Cooper, who claimed that UKIP were a “flash in the pan”.[…]


Ashcroft: Murphy and Dougie Set to Lose Seats to SNP

Jim Murphy is trailing the SNP by 9 points in his East Renfrewshire seat, according to the latest Ashcroft constituency polling.

Wee Dougie Alexander is also behind by 11 points in Paisley.

LibDem MP for Berwickshire Michael Moore’s seat falls to the Tories.[…]


Survation/Mirror Snap Poll: Miliband Wins



LibDems Face Tory Wipeout in South West


If this poll is correct the Tories will take all their coalition colleague’s seats.

Tory party chairman Grant Shapps has been predicting strong gains in the South West for months…[…]


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Trump jokes about media bias…

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