Ipsos Mori Poll Predicts Wipeout in Scotland

Look at those zeroes…

TNS: Tories 1 Point Ahead

TNS have usually had Labour in front during the last few weeks, but today the Tories lead by one… 

Tories Lead By 6 With Ashcroft

Following the ICM poll putting the Tories three points ahead, now Ashcroft gives them a lead of six:

Labour lead by one with YouGov and three with Populus today.

Meanwhile the Ashcroft focus group was asked who would play each party leader in a film of their life:

Nicola Sturgeon: Dame Helen Mirren

Jim Murphy: Peter Capaldi, Jim Carrey or Ewan McGregor

Ruth Davidson: Sue Perkins

David Cameron: Hugh Grant or Colin Firth

Ed Miliband: Woody Allen

Harsh.

‘Gold Standard’ ICM Poll: Tory Lead Up to 3 Points

Margin of error. Pump it!

Ashcroft Poll: UKIP Set To Take Thurrock

thurrock
Louise Mensch, who has donated £19,000 to assist Tory candidates standing against UKIP candidates, spent much of last week explaining why polls are wrong. Perhaps it is because Guido is by the sunny seaside on the Atlantic coast that he can hear the faint sound of sobbing this morning. Tim Aker looks set to have become a councillor, MEP and an MP in the space of one amazing year. All that talk of the ‘Kippers having no ground game looks misplaced. High contact rates match their polling lead. They have learnt from the old LibDem strategy of focusing their resources on a few winnable seats…

UPDATE:

Farage Takes 9% Lead in Thanet South

unnamed (1)Alert Louise Mensch…south thanet contact

Twice as many local voters say they have met Farage rather than the Labour or Tory candidate. In fact contact rates in terms of door knocking, leafleting and tele-canvassing all give the campaign to UKIP. It appears the Tories are throwing only a kitchenette at the Thanet South… 

Survation/Mirror Poll Has 4% Lead for Tories

unnamed

Headline voting intention (with change in brackets since last Survation poll on 17th April): CON 33% (-1); LAB 29% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 10% (+3); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 4% (+1); AP 1% (-1). Outlier or…

Tories Down 7 Points in UKIP Target Seats

ComRes have polled ten Conservative-held UKIP target seats, finding the Tories are 7.3% down on their vote share since 2010:

UKIP’s vote share is up 15.4% since 2010, but they are still well behind in third place. Voters in these marginals prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM by 54% to 32%. Breaking: poll shows Tories to hold safe seats…

Tory Lead Falls to 2 Points With ICM

Down from 39% last week…

Full story on Guardian.
[…]

+ READ MORE +

The “Pitiless Empiricism” of Elections

StratLabApr2015-01[1]

Guido has said this before and he will say it again: if the Tories lose this election a large part of the blame belongs to the former Downing Street pollster Andrew Cooper, who claimed that UKIP were a “flash in the pan”.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Ashcroft: Murphy and Dougie Set to Lose Seats to SNP

Jim Murphy is trailing the SNP by 9 points in his East Renfrewshire seat, according to the latest Ashcroft constituency polling.

Wee Dougie Alexander is also behind by 11 points in Paisley.

LibDem MP for Berwickshire Michael Moore’s seat falls to the Tories.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Survation/Mirror Snap Poll: Miliband Wins

[…]

+ READ MORE +

LibDems Face Tory Wipeout in South West

sw-poll

If this poll is correct the Tories will take all their coalition colleague’s seats.

Tory party chairman Grant Shapps has been predicting strong gains in the South West for months…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Ashcroft: Labour Lead in Key Marginals

There are three more gains for Labour in the latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s polls in key Tory-held marginals. Mike Freer is facing a fight to defend his 12 point majority in Finchley and Golders Green:

And things are going to be tight for Edward Timpson in Crewe and Nantwich:

And Tory MP Iain Stewart is currently behind in Milton Keynes South:

There are also ties in Rossendale and Darwen and South Ribble.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Miliband Beats His Wife

As does Farage.

But Miriam Clegg really thrashes Nick in the Daily Mail poll of Leaders vs Spouses[…]

+ READ MORE +

ICM Gives Tories 6% Lead

icm+6

That’s tomorrow’s Guardian splash sorted…[…]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

George Osborne paraphrases Boris, telling the FT:

“If the ball came loose at the back of the scrum, I wouldn’t fumble it”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Did Boris Really Want Brexit? Did Boris Really Want Brexit?
Ken Interviewed, Doesn’t Mention Hitler Ken Interviewed, Doesn’t Mention Hitler
Chuka’s Single Market flip-flop Chuka’s Single Market flip-flop
LABOUR HQ PURGE FEARS LABOUR HQ PURGE FEARS
Carter Ruck Deleting Brooks Newmark Sext Pics Carter Ruck Deleting Brooks Newmark Sext Pics
Mandelson Aide Funding Owen Smith Mandelson Aide Funding Owen Smith
OILY WANTED CORBYN TO GO ON OILY WANTED CORBYN TO GO ON
Hinkley: Forseeable Financial Fiasco Hinkley: Forseeable Financial Fiasco
Baroness Shami(less) Baroness Shami(less)
Just How Totes Posh Is Stella Creasy? Just How Totes Posh Is Stella Creasy?
Thornberry “Sky Sexism” Meltdown Thornberry “Sky Sexism” Meltdown
WATCH HILLARY DROP WATCH HILLARY DROP
PMQs Sketch PMQs Sketch
Vaz Broke Law Vaz Broke Law
Cancel Hinkley Cancel Hinkley
Vaz On Front Pages Vaz On Front Pages
71% OF ECONOMISTS WILL BE PROVED WRONG ABOUT BREXIT 71% OF ECONOMISTS WILL BE PROVED WRONG ABOUT BREXIT
KAY BURLEY TELLS OWEN SMITH: “YOU’RE TOAST” KAY BURLEY TELLS OWEN SMITH: “YOU’RE TOAST”
PIERS MORGAN REFUSES TO DENY AFFAIR PIERS MORGAN REFUSES TO DENY AFFAIR