Look at those zeroes…
Look at those zeroes…
TNS have usually had Labour in front during the last few weeks, but today the Tories lead by one…
Following the ICM poll putting the Tories three points ahead, now Ashcroft gives them a lead of six:
Labour lead by one with YouGov and three with Populus today.
Meanwhile the Ashcroft focus group was asked who would play each party leader in a film of their life:
Nicola Sturgeon: Dame Helen Mirren
Jim Murphy: Peter Capaldi, Jim Carrey or Ewan McGregor
Ruth Davidson: Sue Perkins
David Cameron: Hugh Grant or Colin Firth
Ed Miliband: Woody Allen
Margin of error. Pump it!
Louise Mensch, who has donated £19,000 to assist Tory candidates standing against UKIP candidates, spent much of last week explaining why polls are wrong. Perhaps it is because Guido is by the sunny seaside on the Atlantic coast that he can hear the faint sound of sobbing this morning. Tim Aker looks set to have become a councillor, MEP and an MP in the space of one amazing year. All that talk of the ‘Kippers having no ground game looks misplaced. High contact rates match their polling lead. They have learnt from the old LibDem strategy of focusing their resources on a few winnable seats…
Alert Louise Mensch…
Twice as many local voters say they have met Farage rather than the Labour or Tory candidate. In fact contact rates in terms of door knocking, leafleting and tele-canvassing all give the campaign to UKIP. It appears the Tories are throwing only a kitchenette at the Thanet South…
Headline voting intention (with change in brackets since last Survation poll on 17th April): CON 33% (-1); LAB 29% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 10% (+3); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 4% (+1); AP 1% (-1). Outlier or…
ComRes have polled ten Conservative-held UKIP target seats, finding the Tories are 7.3% down on their vote share since 2010:
UKIP’s vote share is up 15.4% since 2010, but they are still well behind in third place. Voters in these marginals prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM by 54% to 32%. Breaking: poll shows Tories to hold safe seats…
Jim Murphy is trailing the SNP by 9 points in his East Renfrewshire seat, according to the latest Ashcroft constituency polling.
Wee Dougie Alexander is also behind by 11 points in Paisley.
LibDem MP for Berwickshire Michael Moore’s seat falls to the Tories.[…]
There are three more gains for Labour in the latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s polls in key Tory-held marginals. Mike Freer is facing a fight to defend his 12 point majority in Finchley and Golders Green:
And things are going to be tight for Edward Timpson in Crewe and Nantwich:
And Tory MP Iain Stewart is currently behind in Milton Keynes South:
There are also ties in Rossendale and Darwen and South Ribble.[…]