Thursday, April 24, 2014

Public Says UKIP Posters Aren’t Racist
Agree With Farage That They Reflect Reality

YouGov’s polling is conclusive: the public does not agree the UKIP posters are racist, offensive or ignorant, with 57% saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality. More support them than oppose them.

Also worth noting that 61% of 2010 Tory voters support the posters, with 68% of 2010 Tories saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality.

Goes to show what the out of touch Oxbridge-educated metropolitan establishment elite know…

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

POLL: UKIP on 27% for Euro Elections

This morning’s Sun/YouGov poll has UKIP on 27% for next month’s Euros, just three points off Labour. The Tories are well down in third place on 22% and the LibDems are on 10%. As you can see by clicking the tabs on our interactive graph, the only redeeming news for Dave is that voting intentions for 2015 see much of that UKIP support in the Euros come home to the Tories. Faced with Miliband in No. 10, the Tories are on 34%, three points behind Labour on 37%. UKIP are on 12% for the general election, with the LibDems again on 10%. The poll was carried out on Monday and Tuesday this week – the ‘Tory establishment stooge’ attacks haven’t made any difference to voters…

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Coetzee Polling Presentation Reality Check

The Times has got hold of some polling slides presented by Nick Clegg’s taxpayer-funded strategist Ryan Coetzee, which give the LibDem leader suspiciously sky high approval ratings:

coetzee-slide-2-500x376

Compare Coetzee’s polling with that of independent companies however and the result is quite different. Back in October Ipsos Mori had 57% of the public saying they were dissatisfied with Clegg. In June they had his net approval rating at -37. YouGov meanwhile said he was the least popular party leader since Michael Foot.

Ed gets clapped by his brainwashed staff. Nick gets fantasy data. And Dave is surrounded by tits

UPDATE: Stephen Tall says he thinks this poll data is of “switchers” in target marginal seats. It still doesn’t explain why these people give a some 20% higher approval rating to Clegg than YouGov attributes to actual LibDem voters. Given these were produced by a civil servant, Coetzee, and the LibDem defence is that it is entirely legitimate and compatible with his role as a civil servant, we’ve FoI’d the presentation. Smells wrong…

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Even Labour MPs See Falling Unemployment, Economy Growing

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Latest Polls Have New Highs for UKIP
Miliband Win Worse for Tories Than Farage Win

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

ComRes CON 29% (-3), LAB 35% (=), LDEM 7% (-2), UKIP 20% (+4)

Opinium CON 30% (-2), LAB 36% (+3), LDEM 7% (-3), UKIP 18% (+3)

Ipsos MORI CON 31%( -1), LAB 37% (+2), LDEM 9% (-4), UKIP 15% (+4)

The trend is clear, since the Nick ‘n Nige Euro Debate UKIP have gained at the expense largely of the LibDems and to a lesser extent the Tories. Clegg’s gamble on solidifying the pro-EU vote behind him has been a double-barrelled shot to his own foot. He came off worse and his mis-judgement has cost his party dearly. Guido hears LibDem loyalists now talking of them losing all their MEP’s seats…

Labour are 6% ahead in current polls, though this may not result in them winning the most seats at the Euro elections because when it comes to certainty to vote, UKIP voters are more motivated. CCHQ is dreading a UKIP victory at the polls sending their backbenchers into headless chicken mode. This chart shows why they should fear Labour winning more than UKIP winning:

ukip-source-voters

If Labour get beaten by UKIP in May the pressure on Ed will explode and the divisions in his party will come out into the open. Whereas if Labour wins Ed will have the wind behind him for the general election. UKIP voters are more likely to return to the Tories when it comes to a general election choice between Miliband and Cameron, therefore it will be a far worse portent for the Tories if Labour rather than UKIP wins in May.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Osborne’s Strict Discipline Leaves You Satisfied

As the Times reported on its front page today and Guido pointed out at the time, Osborne had the most obvious motive to want Maria Miller out. Today’s Evening Standard poll taken at the height of the Miller scandal shows Osborne does have still a strong approval rating and as a No. 11 source notes, the Miller distraction was “highly annoying”. Let’s see if that lasts when the cuts actually start…

The Standard / Ipsos Mori poll also has Farage as the only leader with a positive net satisfaction rate. That LibDem spin that the debates were good for Clegg unravels too, he is down 4% since last month…

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Two Thirds Say Standards Committee Should Be Abolished

69% of the public agree with Guido that MPs should not be allowed to sit on the committee that judges whether politicians are guilty of fiddling their expenses, according to a Survation poll for Breitbart London. 47% say Maria Miller makes them less likely to vote Tory in 2015, 55% say Dave has handled it badly and the same number say Miller is the worst expenses cheat since 2009. But you keep on fighting for her, Prime Minister…

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

POLL RESULTS: Farage Wins

The Blurrt worm tells the whole story:

Click to enlarge.

Knockout…

Friday, March 28, 2014

What the Public Thinks About Each Party Leader

Big exclusive polling by the Daily Politics today. Who do you most trust to manage the economy? Cameron/Osborne 58%, Miliband/Balls 42% – damning for Labour. A glimmer of hope for Ed that he is seen as less weird than Farage, but a very small silver lining. Here is what the people think:

Click to enlarge.
Via Populus / Daily Politics.

Pundit’s “Budget for the Old” Wins Youth Vote
Weird Ed Has Lost Younger Voters Since Budget 

If you read the pundits, for example  and , the budget was aimed at older voters to counteract UKIP’s attraction to older more traditional small ‘c’ conservative voters. This is the pundit’s explanation for the poll lead collapse by Labour – now down to just 1%. Pundits claim Osborne has cunningly found granny’s political g-spot.

Has he really? Here is the move post budget in Tory support:

tory-budget-poll

Younger voters up 5%, middle years up 3%, grey-haired support unchanged for the Tories. Whereas for Ed Miliband:

lab-budget-poll

Labour has actually gained older voters perhaps nostalgic for the Kinnock type socialism now offered by Miliband. Weird Ed has lost 6% support from young voters, slightly less from middle age voters and gained 2% more support from aging lefties. Don’t think this is a random poll error – the YouGov results above are based on combining 8 polls to give some good sample sizes. Pundits will no doubt mull this over and recalibrate their musings. Guido has a working hypothesis, backed up by some data: Ed just isn’t cool. He’s an uncool weirdo that younger voters don’t want to be associated with, he has loser written all over him. 51 per cent of 18-24 year olds describe Ed Miliband as weird, the percentage of the Shadow Cabinet that agrees is even higher…


Seen Elsewhere

Comply or Die at Grauniad | MediaGuido
Labour Beats UKIP in South Yorkshire | LabourList
Mock the Week’s Weak Comedy | Nigel Farage
Can Jim Murphy Save Scottish Labour? | Guardian
There is Still Appetite for the Westminster Lunch | Jon Craig
Labour Turn Their Backs on Jewish Community | Dan Hodges
Chivalry is Not Dead | Laura Perrins
Jonathan Jones is a Tw*t | Iain Dale
Second Scotland Poll Suggests Labour Wipeout | Times
Paedo Probe Boss Urged to Quit | Sun
Keynesian Tories Won’t Eliminate Deficit | Tim Montgomerie


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