ICM: Cameron Wins Question Time

Guardian/ICM snap result:

icm

Cameron: 44%, Miliband: 38%, Clegg: 19%.

ComRes Election Poem

ComRes have for some reason commissioned a special election poem:

I PREFER DEMOCRACY
 
You can run a land with armies
You can rule a sea with boats
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with votes.
 
You can run a land with bullets
You can crush dissent with sticks 
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with ticks.
 
You can run a land with slogans
You can dominate with voice  
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with choice.
 
You can run a land with torture
You can keep control with fights
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with rights.
 
You can run a land with freedom
You can find a people’s heart
But if this is democracy
You have to play your part.
 
You can run a land that dances
You can run a land that rocks
By voting for democracy
With your cross inside a box.
 
Steve Turner 2015

Kill Guido now.

Labour Smashed in Ipsos MORI Drill Down

The PM’s approval rating is on the up. According the Standard’s polling:

“The percentage who are satisfied with his performance has jumped from 39 to 46 in two weeks, giving him his best net rating since 2012, at -2, which is markedly better than his rivals.Mr Clegg’s net score has been boosted by 10 points to -21, while Mr Miliband has stayed level at -19.  Mr Farage is down a point to -25.”

And Labour get smashed in the other top jobs too:
  • Cameron/Miliband 52 to 31.
  • Osborne/Balls 47 to 34.
  • May/Cooper 45 to 36.
  • Clegg/Harman 42 to 39.
Only Dougie Alexander beats Philip Hammond, but he’s unlikely to even have a seat next week…

Tories Lead By 5 With Ipsos Mori

But the Tory lead is just one point with YouGov:

The final polls come in in seven days…

Ashcroft: Farage and Clegg Behind

Worth taking with a large pinch of salt because Ashcroft doesn’t prompt candidates’ names, but he has UKIP behind in South Thanet:

And Clegg trailing in Sheffield Hallam:

Guido has a considerable amount of money saying otherwise in Sheffield…

Jim Murphy Reacts to Ipsos Mori Poll

An unfortuante juxtaposition as news of Labour’s impending doom in Scotland broke on Sky…

UPDATE:

Ipsos Mori Poll Predicts Wipeout in Scotland

Look at those zeroes…

TNS: Tories 1 Point Ahead

TNS have usually had Labour in front during the last few weeks, but today the Tories lead by one… 

Tories Lead By 6 With Ashcroft

Following the ICM poll putting the Tories three points ahead, now Ashcroft gives them a lead of six:

Labour lead by one with YouGov and three with Populus today.

Meanwhile the Ashcroft focus group was asked who would play each party leader in a film of their life:

Nicola Sturgeon: Dame Helen Mirren

Jim Murphy: Peter Capaldi, Jim Carrey or Ewan McGregor

Ruth Davidson: Sue Perkins

David Cameron: Hugh Grant or Colin Firth

Ed Miliband: Woody Allen

Harsh.[…]

+ READ MORE +

‘Gold Standard’ ICM Poll: Tory Lead Up to 3 Points

Margin of error. Pump it![…]

+ READ MORE +

Ashcroft Poll: UKIP Set To Take Thurrock

thurrock
Louise Mensch, who has donated £19,000 to assist Tory candidates standing against UKIP candidates, spent much of last week explaining why polls are wrong. Perhaps it is because Guido is by the sunny seaside on the Atlantic coast that he can hear the faint sound of sobbing this morning.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Farage Takes 9% Lead in Thanet South

unnamed (1)Alert Louise Mensch…south thanet contact

Twice as many local voters say they have met Farage rather than the Labour or Tory candidate. In fact contact rates in terms of door knocking, leafleting and tele-canvassing all give the campaign to UKIP. It appears the Tories are throwing only a kitchenette at the Thanet South… […]

+ READ MORE +

Survation/Mirror Poll Has 4% Lead for Tories

unnamed

Headline voting intention (with change in brackets since last Survation poll on 17th April): CON 33% (-1); LAB 29% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 10% (+3); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 4% (+1); AP 1% (-1). Outlier or…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Tories Down 7 Points in UKIP Target Seats

ComRes have polled ten Conservative-held UKIP target seats, finding the Tories are 7.3% down on their vote share since 2010:

UKIP’s vote share is up 15.4% since 2010, but they are still well behind in third place. Voters in these marginals prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM by 54% to 32%.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Tory Lead Falls to 2 Points With ICM

Down from 39% last week…

Full story on Guardian.
[…]

+ READ MORE +

The “Pitiless Empiricism” of Elections

StratLabApr2015-01[1]

Guido has said this before and he will say it again: if the Tories lose this election a large part of the blame belongs to the former Downing Street pollster Andrew Cooper, who claimed that UKIP were a “flash in the pan”.[…]

+ READ MORE +



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