Ipsos Mori Poll Predicts Wipeout in Scotland

Look at those zeroes…

TNS: Tories 1 Point Ahead

TNS have usually had Labour in front during the last few weeks, but today the Tories lead by one… 

Tories Lead By 6 With Ashcroft

Following the ICM poll putting the Tories three points ahead, now Ashcroft gives them a lead of six:

Labour lead by one with YouGov and three with Populus today.

Meanwhile the Ashcroft focus group was asked who would play each party leader in a film of their life:

Nicola Sturgeon: Dame Helen Mirren

Jim Murphy: Peter Capaldi, Jim Carrey or Ewan McGregor

Ruth Davidson: Sue Perkins

David Cameron: Hugh Grant or Colin Firth

Ed Miliband: Woody Allen

Harsh.

‘Gold Standard’ ICM Poll: Tory Lead Up to 3 Points

Margin of error. Pump it!

Ashcroft Poll: UKIP Set To Take Thurrock

thurrock
Louise Mensch, who has donated £19,000 to assist Tory candidates standing against UKIP candidates, spent much of last week explaining why polls are wrong. Perhaps it is because Guido is by the sunny seaside on the Atlantic coast that he can hear the faint sound of sobbing this morning. Tim Aker looks set to have become a councillor, MEP and an MP in the space of one amazing year. All that talk of the ‘Kippers having no ground game looks misplaced. High contact rates match their polling lead. They have learnt from the old LibDem strategy of focusing their resources on a few winnable seats…

UPDATE:

Farage Takes 9% Lead in Thanet South

unnamed (1)Alert Louise Mensch…south thanet contact

Twice as many local voters say they have met Farage rather than the Labour or Tory candidate. In fact contact rates in terms of door knocking, leafleting and tele-canvassing all give the campaign to UKIP. It appears the Tories are throwing only a kitchenette at the Thanet South… 

Survation/Mirror Poll Has 4% Lead for Tories

unnamed

Headline voting intention (with change in brackets since last Survation poll on 17th April): CON 33% (-1); LAB 29% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 10% (+3); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 4% (+1); AP 1% (-1). Outlier or…

Tories Down 7 Points in UKIP Target Seats

ComRes have polled ten Conservative-held UKIP target seats, finding the Tories are 7.3% down on their vote share since 2010:

UKIP’s vote share is up 15.4% since 2010, but they are still well behind in third place. Voters in these marginals prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM by 54% to 32%. Breaking: poll shows Tories to hold safe seats…

Tory Lead Falls to 2 Points With ICM

Down from 39% last week…

Full story on Guardian.

[…]

+ READ MORE +

The “Pitiless Empiricism” of Elections

StratLabApr2015-01[1]

Guido has said this before and he will say it again: if the Tories lose this election a large part of the blame belongs to the former Downing Street pollster Andrew Cooper, who claimed that UKIP were a “flash in […]

+ READ MORE +

Ashcroft: Murphy and Dougie Set to Lose Seats to SNP

Jim Murphy is trailing the SNP by 9 points in his East Renfrewshire seat, according to the latest Ashcroft constituency polling.

Wee Dougie Alexander is also behind by 11 points in Paisley.

LibDem MP for Berwickshire Michael Moore’s seat falls […]

+ READ MORE +

Survation/Mirror Snap Poll: Miliband Wins

[…]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Cameron on Trump:

“I have to say that knowing the gruelling nature of the primaries and what you have to go through, anyone who makes it through that extraordinary contest to lead their party into a general election deserves our respect.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

BOTTOMS UP! HUGH BONNEVILLE CELEBRATES STAGE SUCCESS BOTTOMS UP! HUGH BONNEVILLE CELEBRATES STAGE SUCCESS
NUTJOB PLAID CANDIDATE: UK CREATED ISIS NUTJOB PLAID CANDIDATE: UK CREATED ISIS
MEDIA MINISTER MONITOR: LEAVE WINNING AIR WAR MEDIA MINISTER MONITOR: LEAVE WINNING AIR WAR
CPS SAYS UP TO COPS TO PURSUE TORIES CPS SAYS UP TO COPS TO PURSUE TORIES
IPSO: COKE PROBABLY WAS SNORTED AT MOMENTUM PARTY IPSO: COKE PROBABLY WAS SNORTED AT MOMENTUM PARTY
PMQS SKETCH: Corbyn Withstands Heavy Shelling PMQS SKETCH: Corbyn Withstands Heavy Shelling
DECC: Please Think Before You Print DECC: Please Think Before You Print
TOP TORY COPPER IN MILF PORN SHOCKER TOP TORY COPPER IN MILF PORN SHOCKER
SHAPPS THROWS FELDMAN UNDER THE BATTLE BUS SHAPPS THROWS FELDMAN UNDER THE BATTLE BUS
CORBYN REFUSES TO WITHDRAW HAMAS “FRIENDS” COMMENT 4 TIMES CORBYN REFUSES TO WITHDRAW HAMAS “FRIENDS” COMMENT 4 TIMES
SADIQ: “I’M SORRY” FOR RACIAL SLUR AGAINST MODERATE MUSLIMS SADIQ: “I’M SORRY” FOR RACIAL SLUR AGAINST MODERATE MUSLIMS
TWO MORE LABOUR COUNCILLORS RANTED ABOUT “JEWS” TWO MORE LABOUR COUNCILLORS RANTED ABOUT “JEWS”
CRUZ QUITS, HITS WIFE CRUZ QUITS, HITS WIFE
KHAN CALLED MODERATE MUSLIMS “UNCLE TOMS” ON IRANIAN STATE TV KHAN CALLED MODERATE MUSLIMS “UNCLE TOMS” ON IRANIAN STATE TV
NAZ SHAH RESIGNS FROM HOME AFFAIRS SELECT COMMITTEE NAZ SHAH RESIGNS FROM HOME AFFAIRS SELECT COMMITTEE
HAMAS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM CORBYN HAMAS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM CORBYN
LABOUR COUNCILLOR DEFENDS COMPARING JEWS TO HITLER LABOUR COUNCILLOR DEFENDS COMPARING JEWS TO HITLER
TOP CORBYNISTA MP TWEETED ABOUT PUTTING ISRAEL IN MID-WEST OF AMERICA TOP CORBYNISTA MP TWEETED ABOUT PUTTING ISRAEL IN MID-WEST OF AMERICA
GOVE TOPS CONHOME POLL AGAIN GOVE TOPS CONHOME POLL AGAIN
UBER, BUT FOR BREXIT UBER, BUT FOR BREXIT
LABOUR’S BANK HOLIDAY TIMELINE LABOUR’S BANK HOLIDAY TIMELINE
THIRD LABOUR COUNCILLOR SUSPENDED OVER “HITLER” TWEET THIRD LABOUR COUNCILLOR SUSPENDED OVER “HITLER” TWEET
LABOUR COUNCILLOR: ISRAEL BEHIND ISIS, “ZIONIST JEWS ARE A DISGRACE TO HUMANITY” LABOUR COUNCILLOR: ISRAEL BEHIND ISIS, “ZIONIST JEWS ARE A DISGRACE TO HUMANITY”
ANOTHER LABOUR POLITICIAN WANTS TO “RELOCATE” JEWS TO AMERICA ANOTHER LABOUR POLITICIAN WANTS TO “RELOCATE” JEWS TO AMERICA
DIANE ABBOTT CAR CRASH: ANTI-SEMITISM A “SMEAR” DIANE ABBOTT CAR CRASH: ANTI-SEMITISM A “SMEAR”
KHAN ALLY: “ISRAEL IS A TERRORIST STATE LIKE ISIS” KHAN ALLY: “ISRAEL IS A TERRORIST STATE LIKE ISIS”
DIANE ABBOTT DEFENDS NAZ SHAH, SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM ISN’T A PROBLEM FOR LABOUR DIANE ABBOTT DEFENDS NAZ SHAH, SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM ISN’T A PROBLEM FOR LABOUR
Fiorina Drops Fiorina Drops
£500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED £500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED
SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS