Final Debate Poll Verdict: Salmond Wins

The Blurrt worm has spoken:

Salmond wins.

Via @David_Taylor

UPDATE: ICM call it for Salmond 71% to 29%. Also known as a total thumping. 

THE CHOICE: Tories Draw Level With Labour

At the end of July Labour launched their summer offensive, drawing up the battle lines for next year with the catchy slogan: “The Choice: The Labour Future, The Tory Threat”. Well, after three weeks of shadow cabinet speeches up and down the country outlining “the choice” faced by voters, the people have spoken. YouGov’s poll for the Sun today sees the Tories draw level with Labour for the first time in three months, both parties on 35%. This confirms yesterday’s Ipsos Mori poll which also had both parties level. Labour are telling voters what “the choice” is, and the voters are making it…

#ScotDecides Blurrt Twitter Worm: Darling Narrowly Wins

Click to enlarge.
Via Blurrt.

UPDATE: Guardian exit poll says Darling beats Salmond 56% to 44%.

Reality Check for McPangloss

brilliant-balls

John McTernan must surely be nearing peak McPangloss in The Scotsman this morning…

“…today, no-one has ever doubted Ed Balls’s brilliance. What no-one could anticipate was quite how brilliantly he would grow into his role.”

Guido likes McTernan, he has a dry wit, with a certain concentrated menace that lurks in his soul, eager to be released. His new self-appointed role as a panglossian Labour media cheerleader just doesn’t suit him. He just goes over the top and humiliates himself.

For example, just before the European elections he told nervous Labour loyalists to relax, they were going to win the Euros. UKIP convincingly won the Euros…

Claiming no one doubts Ed Balls’s brilliance and events have proved Balls right is just silly. Half the shadow cabinet have their doubts, Ed Miliband did not even want to give the job to Balls – giving it at first to Alan Johnson. Most importantly and in direct contradiction to McTernan’s central thesis, as the economy recovers sceptical voters doubt even more the supposed wisdom of Ed Balls and have increasing confidence in George Osborne:

balls-osborne

Go back to attack, McPangloss, it is what you do, cheerleading just doesn’t suit you…

UKIP on Course for Two MPs According to Ashcroft Poll

Lord Ashcroft’s latest constituency polling has UKIP in first place in two Tory held seats where Labour came second in 2010. Thurrock Tory MP Jackie Doyle-Price, who has a majority of just 92 in Thurrock, drops to third on 28%. In first place is UKIP’s Tim Aker, on 36%, well ahead of the Labour candidate, Ed Miliband’s carpet-bagging former SpAd Polly Billington, who is on 30%. Meanwhile in Thanet South, where Farage is expected to run, UKIP are first on 33%, with the Tories and Labour level pegging on 29%. The LibDems are almost wiped out in both constituencies, on 2% and 4% respectively. If Ashcroft is on the money, UKIP will have at least two MPs in 2015. They are not just hurting the Tories, but Labour too…

Tories Go Ahead With 5% Jump Giving 2% Lead

ASHCROFT-VOLATILITY

Ashcroft has released his weekly poll and the Tory number has jumped significantly. Why?

First of all nobody cares about Coulson’s conviction. The voters think they are all the same, Coulson, McBride, Baldwin – meh, whatever. So what is it? Economic growth, that is improving, not dramatically enough to cause a 5% jump. Last time Guido recalls a 5% move in a poll in a week was April 2009.

So it must be the Juncker effect, as much as Labour and their media allies try to paint the whole failure to block Juncker affair as a humiliation the voters don’t care (and nor incidentally do Tory MPs). Voters like handbag swinging in Europe.

Or it is a statistical aberration…

Diane Abbott Tops Poll as Labour’s Choice for London Mayor

Today’s Standard brings encouraging news in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London mayor. Diane Abbott is now ahead of Tessa Jowell among Labour supporters, with 17% saying they want Diane to be their candidate compared to just 14% choosing Tessa. As you can see from the chart below, the party is spoilt for choice:

Guido offers his warm support for Diane’s candidacy…

Cable Finally Declares £6,000 Clegg Plot Poll Gift

Four days after the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards announced she would be launching an inquiry into Vince Cable’s failure to declare the Lord Oakeshott poll in his constituency as a gift, this entry appears in the Business Secretary’s Register of Interests:

Name of donor: Lord Oakeshott
Address of donor: private
Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: conducting a local opinion poll, value £6,000
Donor status: individual

Tessa Munt has still failed to declare the poll in her constituency. Oops.

Labour’s Westminster Bubble Bursts
Half of Party’s Key Marginal Candidates are Political Insiders 

Researched published in the Guardian today confirms Labour’s bubble problem: half of the party’s candidates selected to fight marginal seats come from jobs in politics. 54% of Labour candidates in marginal and inherited seats have previously worked in politics or […]

Ed Smashes His Negative Polling Record, Slumps Below Clegg
Osborne’s Shock Positive Approval Rating Grows

Ed Miliband has hit his lowest ever personal rating by gold-standard pollsters ICM for the Guardian. The Labour leader has dropped 14 points in the last month to -39, below even Nick Clegg, who has a rating of -37. […]

Ashcroft Focus Groups: Labour “Lazy Slobs Lying on a Sofa”

This afternoon’s latest fluid Ashcroft poll has the Tories on 29%, Labour six points clear on 35%, the LibDems on 8% and UKIP on 15%. More interesting are the results of his focus groups in Thurrock and Halifax, which found […]

Final Survation Newark Poll Predicts Comfortable Tory Win

The polls have closed in Newark and Survation have released the results of their final poll in the constituency:

The results are expected between 2am and 3am…[…]



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Paul Waugh asks Chuka Umunna if he wants children:

“It’s always something that my father taught me, which is really the bedrock of everything is your family and that’s true. My family and the people close to me keep me sane. Sometimes, things get blown up out of all proportion in this place and that’s always the reaction of my family, my girlfriend and my friends. I can use that to judge whether it really is that important.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

UKIP Candidate’s Song for Dave UKIP Candidate’s Song for Dave
Green’s Loony Tune Fracking Conspiracy Theory Green’s Loony Tune Fracking Conspiracy Theory
MOD PREPARING TO DEFEND YOUR FRIDGE FROM CYBER ATTACK MOD PREPARING TO DEFEND YOUR FRIDGE FROM CYBER ATTACK
The Only Way Is Dave The Only Way Is Dave
Debate Dodging Dave Debate Dodging Dave
Guardianistas Vote for Editor Guardianistas Vote for Editor

Former Tory MP Denies ‘Rent Boy Ring’ Former Tory MP Denies ‘Rent Boy Ring’
JEREMY HUNT SLASHES NHS TECH FUND JEREMY HUNT SLASHES NHS TECH FUND
Gordon’s Seat Could Go to SNP Gordon’s Seat Could Go to SNP
NHS ADMIT MEDICAL RECORDS ARE NOT SAFE NHS ADMIT MEDICAL RECORDS ARE NOT SAFE
Today’s PMQs SKETCH: A New Low Today’s PMQs SKETCH: A New Low
Yet Another Mainstream Media UKIP Smear Yet Another Mainstream Media UKIP Smear
HANDS ON WITH THE NEW SINCLAIR ZX SPECTRUM HANDS ON WITH THE NEW SINCLAIR ZX SPECTRUM
Typical Trade Union Drivers Typical Trade Union Drivers
Labour MP in Misuse of Taxpayer Cash Row Labour MP in Misuse of Taxpayer Cash Row
BOFFINS: CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED ISIS BOFFINS: CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED ISIS
Mystery of Massive Miliband Mystery of Massive Miliband
Cameron With a Gun to His Head Cameron With a Gun to His Head
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,818 other followers