Official: Lazy Socialists Lost the Election

Most of the analysis of the pollsters’ collective nightmare has blamed the ‘Shy Tories’ – people who planned on voting Tory but didn’t tell the pollsters. Ipsos MORI have a different theory: that ‘Lazy Labour’ supporters not turning up to vote skewed the numbers.

The final MORI poll suggested 12.5 million people would vote Tory, just ahead of 12.2 million voting Labour.

They weren’t too far off on the Tory number – 11.3 million voted Tory on the day – but some 3 million Labour supporters went missing. Where did they go? MORI chief Ben Page says:

“we think not voted. Predicted turnout 82% day before. Was only 66%”

Their analysis suggests it was young left-wing voters not turning out on the day that explains the difference. The Russell Brand effect…

Exit Poll: CON 316 LAB 239 LD 10 SNP 58 UKIP 2

BUT this is what YouGov say:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/596056851625746433/photo/1

Seats Sweepstake Prize Competition

Adam Boulton has made his own forecast:

Log in and record your prediction down below in the comments and the most accurate prediction will get sent some Guido paraphernalia and goodies that we have around. Predict away…

Guido’s Poll of Final Polls

Here is Guido’s poll of final polls, averaging out the final numbers from Populus, TNS, Opinium, ICM, Panelbase, YouGov, ComRes, Survation, Ashcroft and Ipsos MORI:

Funnily enough they have all converged. The Tories need them to be wrong…

TONIGHT’S FINAL POLLS

YouGov have polled 10,000 people:

The final ComRes poll:

And Survation:

The Tories need a better result than that…

Final ‘Gold Standard’ ICM Poll

Labour up three on last week. Not good for the Tories…

The Final Polls: Labour on 30% With Ashcroft

Tomorrow is the big day for most pollsters, with seven companies releasing their final numbers before the election. Today it is the turn of Populus and Lord Ashcroft:

Populus: CON 34, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13, GREEN 5

Ashcroft: CON 32, LAB 30, LD 11, UKIP 12, GREEN 7

The last time we’ll hear Lord A tell us “it’s a snapshot not a predicition” before polling day…

Final Polls of the Season

Mike Smithson has put together a list of the final polls in the run up to Thursday. The exit poll will be released on the stroke of ten, Thursday night. It’s a group effort from BBC/ITV News/Sky News and the pollsters, and was spot on in 2010…

Labour Back Ahead With Survation

Weird how this is the only poll showing Labour gaining rather than losing five points in the last week…[…]

+ READ MORE +

ICM: Cameron Wins Question Time

Guardian/ICM snap result:

icm

Cameron: 44%, Miliband: 38%, Clegg: 19%.[…]

+ READ MORE +

ComRes Election Poem

ComRes have for some reason commissioned a special election poem:

I PREFER DEMOCRACY
 
You can run a land with armies
You can rule a sea with boats
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with votes.
 
You can run a land with bullets
You can crush dissent with sticks 
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with ticks.

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Labour Smashed in Ipsos MORI Drill Down

The PM’s approval rating is on the up. According the Standard’s polling:

“The percentage who are satisfied with his performance has jumped from 39 to 46 in two weeks, giving him his best net rating since 2012, at -2, which is markedly better than his rivals.Mr Clegg’s net score has been boosted by 10 points to -21, while Mr Miliband has stayed level at -19. 

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Tories Lead By 5 With Ipsos Mori

But the Tory lead is just one point with YouGov:

The final polls come in in seven days…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Ashcroft: Farage and Clegg Behind

Worth taking with a large pinch of salt because Ashcroft doesn’t prompt candidates’ names, but he has UKIP behind in South Thanet:

And Clegg trailing in Sheffield Hallam:

Guido has a considerable amount of money saying otherwise in Sheffield…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Jim Murphy Reacts to Ipsos Mori Poll

An unfortuante juxtaposition as news of Labour’s impending doom in Scotland broke on Sky…

UPDATE:

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Ipsos Mori Poll Predicts Wipeout in Scotland

Look at those zeroes…[…]

+ READ MORE +



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team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Heather Wheeler talks to Burton Mail about her tweet…

“It was a tongue in cheek pop after the European Parliament tweet – it was purely that. I also wanted to congratulate Team GB on a brilliant result and thirdly congratulate the Commonwealth countries who also did very well. Fourth, I am also looking forwarded to establishing new trade agreements. That was it – nothing more. Let’s just enjoy the summer!”

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