Mellow Yellow Numbers

Last year Guido reported on the concern of close Clegg family friends, who were worried the Deputy Prime Minister was ‘in a really bad place’. Despite Cleggy claiming he is far chirpier than his demeanor let on, today’s Survation poll of his Sheffield seat makes for grim reading:

LAB 33% (+17), LD 23% (-30), CON 22% (-2)

Even though this union funded poll is not weighted to take into account previous voting intentions, that ten point Labour lead will be eye-watering for Lib Dem strategists.

Nationally the Tories lead by a point:

And the LibDems a point behind the Greens…

Jim On The Run

Jim Murphy has pulled out of a public appearance today, after the McAshcroft poll pointed to a total rout for the party north of the border. Guido is told that Scottish Labour hope to ‘reschedule’ a stunt that would have their leader selling copies of the Big Issue for the day. Jim will have the opportunity to do so full time at this rate…

Meanwhile, here is the party’s mature response to utter Caledonian clusterf*ck. You would never have thought they’re a bunch of former NUS chumps:

Yeah, retreat to that comfort zone. That will solve everything.

Poll: Both Alexanders Set to Lose Seats to SNP

In what appears to be a premature data dump of Lord Ashcroft’s much anticipated Scotland polling, Danny Alexander is predicted to lose his seat at the election:

Screen Shot 2015-02-03 at 23.50.33

As is Douglas Alexander:

Screen Shot 2015-02-03 at 23.53.41

Not Great for Alexanders…

Ashcroft Focus Group: Cameron is Like Dick Dastardly

Lord Ashcroft has asked a focus group which cartoon character they think the party leaders most resemble:

Ed Miliband is “Elmer Fudd, in perennial but fruitless pursuit of the Prime Ministerial wabbit”…

Two Graphs Which Show How Greens Are Splitting the Left

Guido’s Green Party poll tracker is back today as Natalie Bennett’s party surge onto 10% with YouGov, an all time high. The split in the left is clear: Labour slump to 30% this morning, a five year low, leaving the Tories 2 points clear at the top on 32%. The debate about the debates is having an impact too. 

Worth comparing the final poll in 2014 to where we are today. On December 22 Labour were 4 points clear on 36%, with the Greens down on 5%. Since then Labour have lost 6 points and the Greens have doubled their poll rating…

See the numbers in full in Guido’s tracker here.

Plummeting Public Trust in Lefty NGOs

Edelman has published its annual “trust barometer”, sampling a massive 27,000 people on how they rate politicians, industries and organisations on honesty. The stand out figure is the huge drop in trust for leftist activists disguised as do-gooders: NGOs. In the last year trust in NGOs has plummeted from 67% to 51%, falling below business in the honesty stakes.

Why? The survey found “an excessive focus on money and NGOs losing touch with the UK are the main causes for those losing trust in NGOs”. The report concludes that “the UK is drifting in the ‘trust doldrums’… NGOs are the worst hit”…

Greens on 11% in Latest Ashcroft Poll

Big leap for the Greens in this afternoon’s Ashcroft poll. Both Tories and Labour under 30%…

72% Say Let Greens in Leaders Debate

How much is Dave’s “chicken” debate demand to let the Greens take part hurting him with voters? A YouGov/Sun poll today finds 7 in 10 agree with the PM that Natalie Bennett should be allowed in. Meanwhile, overnight:

Guido understands as of yesterday UKIP’s memberships stands at 41,943, but the Greens have now overtaken that. Over to the broadcasters…

Ashcroft Poll: Tories 6 Points Clear of Labour
Populus Poll 5 Points Other Way

Think that’s what you call an outlier… on the other hand…

POP-POLL-12-1

A range of opinion polls…

Phil Webster dryly sums it up:

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Labour Three Points Behind Tories in New Ipsos Mori Poll

Labour types crowing about yesterday’s outlier ICM poll aren’t so chirpy about this one putting the Tories three points ahead. Meanwhile the Green Surge continues. Just 4% below UKIP…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Greens 2 Points Ahead of LibDems For First Time

Labour and UKIP types talking down […]

+ READ MORE +

Labour Oppositions Never Gain Ground in Final Six Months

Fascinating analysis on ConHome showing how Labour’s poll ratings six months out from elections have historically compared with the final election result. Guido’s graph above illustrates how “Labour consistently end up winning fewer votes in the general election than the […]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Out of the bubble prole Andy Burnham tells Mumsnet

“I’m afraid I’m going to depress you all by saying that I don’t have a sweet tooth and don’t eat biscuits… Give me a beer and chips and gravy any day.”

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