Monday, June 23, 2014

Diane Abbott Tops Poll as Labour’s Choice for London Mayor

Today’s Standard brings encouraging news in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London mayor. Diane Abbott is now ahead of Tessa Jowell among Labour supporters, with 17% saying they want Diane to be their candidate compared to just 14% choosing Tessa. As you can see from the chart below, the party is spoilt for choice:

Guido offers his warm support for Diane’s candidacy…

Friday, June 20, 2014

Cable Finally Declares £6,000 Clegg Plot Poll Gift

Four days after the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards announced she would be launching an inquiry into Vince Cable’s failure to declare the Lord Oakeshott poll in his constituency as a gift, this entry appears in the Business Secretary’s Register of Interests:

Name of donor: Lord Oakeshott
Address of donor: private
Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: conducting a local opinion poll, value £6,000
Donor status: individual

Tessa Munt has still failed to declare the poll in her constituency. Oops.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Labour’s Westminster Bubble Bursts
Half of Party’s Key Marginal Candidates are Political Insiders 

Researched published in the Guardian today confirms Labour’s bubble problem: half of the party’s candidates selected to fight marginal seats come from jobs in politics. 54% of Labour candidates in marginal and inherited seats have previously worked in politics or wonk world, compared with 46% of LibDem candidates and 17% of Tories. Created in the image of their leader…

The research finds that former or current staff of Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Tessa Jowell, Ruth Kelly, Hazel Blears, Alistair Darling, Hilary Armstrong, Mary Creagh, Lord Foulkes, David Blunkett and Lord Sugar are all running, as are 15 ex-Labour MPs standing again, as readers will remember they include expenses piggies Joan Ryan and Andrew Dismore. They identified four Red Princes so far: Jack Straw’s son Will, Neil Kinnock’s son Stephen, former MP Colin Burgon’s son Richard and ex-MP Shona McIsaac’s husband Peter. They won’t be the last.

In 2012 Miliband championed a new Labour Party programme to find more working class MPs to try to address concerns that too many of the party’s candidates had backgrounds as researchers and SpAds, but as Bath University’s Dr Peter Allen says, “it is more a Labour problem” and it is not going away. An ICM poll finds 44% say they are fed up with careerist MPs who “look and sound the same“, indeed a Times/YouGov poll earlier this year found that not having had a “real” job outside of politics was the least attractive quality for candidates, with 55% saying it made them unsuitable for public office. Even Tony Blair said last year that there was a “problem” with MPs not working in normal jobs before entering politics. Might there possibly be a link between Ed Miliband spending his adult life in the bubble and the public’s perception of him as an out of touch weirdo?

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Ed Smashes His Negative Polling Record, Slumps Below Clegg
Osborne’s Shock Positive Approval Rating Grows

Ed Miliband has hit his lowest ever personal rating by gold-standard pollsters ICM for the Guardian. The Labour leader has dropped 14 points in the last month to -39, below even Nick Clegg, who has a rating of -37. Cameron has lost last month’s positive rating of +2, dropping to -5, though Osborne has seen an increase in his own rating from +5 to +6.

The force is strong in that one.

Monday, June 16, 2014

Ashcroft Focus Groups: Labour “Lazy Slobs Lying on a Sofa”

This afternoon’s latest fluid Ashcroft poll has the Tories on 29%, Labour six points clear on 35%, the LibDems on 8% and UKIP on 15%. More interesting are the results of his focus groups in Thurrock and Halifax, which found the Tories are seen as out of touch but sensible,“aggressively” campaigning to sort out the economy. Music to Lynton Crosby’s ears…

Labour meanwhile are seen as weak, confused and dull, and maintains its image as being summed up by miners and “a lazy slob lying on a sofa, beer in hand”.

What could it be about Ed’s refusal to back any cuts, his anti-benefit reform stance and dependency on the unions that give them that impression…

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Final Survation Newark Poll Predicts Comfortable Tory Win

The polls have closed in Newark and Survation have released the results of their final poll in the constituency:

The results are expected between 2am and 3am…

More Want to Leave the EU Than Stay In

President Obama is in Brussels with Dave to tell us how he thinks the British people should be voting. He says Scots should vote no to freedom and that Britain should stay in the EU, haughtily remarking: “I’m sure the people of Britain will make the right decision”. Unfortunately for the President an ITV/ComRes poll out today shows more Britons want to leave the EU than stay in. 42% would vote to leave if there was a referendum tomorrow and just 40% would vote to stay. Sadly Obama didn’t give us his verdict on whether the people of Newark should go for Robert Jenrick or Roger Helmer today…

Monday, June 2, 2014

Ashcroft Newark Poll Has Tories 15 Points Clear

Lord Ashcroft reports:

“A by-election two weeks after the European election means that Newark’s electors have enjoyed the prolonged attention of the parties, a privilege for which they must surely be grateful. The evidence from my poll is that the Tories have had the better of an intense ground war and have by no means taken the seat for granted. More than nine out of ten voters say they have heard from the Conservatives locally, including 81 per cent who have had literature through the door; nearly half have received personally addressed mail. Eight in ten say they have heard from UKIP; the party is reported to be slightly more active than Labour in all elements of the local campaign.

The poll was conducted in the week before polling day, and just under a fifth of voters say they may yet change their mind. Despite this, it looks clear that the next MP for Newark will be Robert Jenrick.”

The full data is here.

It’s theirs to lose…

Another Troublesome Peer Leaks Polling Data to Troll Leader

Lord Oakeshott jumped before he was pushed last week, after commissioning unsolicited bad news polling for the  LibDems, but has he set a precedent? Nick Clegg said he thought it ‘totally unacceptable’ that a ‘senior member of the party’ was ‘spending time and money to undermine the fortunes of the party’ and that ‘appropriate measures’ would be taken. Will Dave be so bold in standing up to Tory peer Lord Ashcroft? The billionaire former party donor has been commissioning unhelpful polls left right and centre that suggest a comfortable Labour majority in 2015.

Douglas Alexander MP, Labour’s General Election Strategy, commenting on Ashcroft’s last poll in marginal seats, said gratefully: “Lord Ashcroft’s poll confirms that we are making real progress in seats where we need to do well and that Labour can win next year’s General Election.”

There is an Ashcroft Newark poll out at 4pm…

What ‘appropriate measures’ will the PM be taking with his own troublesome peer?

ConservativeHome Readers Increasingly Favour UKIP Pact

ch-ukip-pact

ConservativeHome’s post Euro elections reader survey shows that the reality of the national vote result was not lost on the site’s readership. Support* for a blue-purple pact has risen…

*Usual caveats about self-selecting samples.


Seen Elsewhere

May SpAd Removed From Candidates List | ConHome
Clodagh’s Law | Press Gazette
Whitehall Bosses Ban Christmas | Sun
Meanwhile, in Russia… | Media Guido
Christmas TV Tips | Laura Perrins
Labour Marginal Fright | Lord Ashcroft
Osborne’ Real Deficit Reduction Record | ConHome
Blameronism | Peter Oborne
Everyone Can Lose | Staggers
Splintering of the Left | Tim Montgomerie
Fallon’s Lawyer Loathing | Quentin Letts


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Labour insiders turn on Ed over Powell’s latest gaffe:

“When is he going to stop promoting useless people? He was warned about her.”


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