Ashcroft Focus Group Tell Leaders to Go Back to School

The Ashcroft focus group is back and this time his Lordship has asked which job would each party leader be best suited to outside of politics:

Cameron: “a headmaster, or a company director in charge of things”

Farage: “a pub landlord, and a good one at that, or would run his own small but successful business”

Clegg: “probably something administrative or perhaps a supermarket store manager”

Miliband: “university professor”

Former Harvard lecturer Miliband shouldn’t have quit the day job…

Blue Dawn: Is Lynton’s Late Swing Starting?

UKPR-3-5-15

Is that tiny blue uptick on the right hand edge of this graph the first sign of the long awaited swing to the Tories reportedly forecast by Lynton Crosby? This is the six month rolling 5 day average of all the pollsters* – based on UK Polling Report data. The uptick is a result of the last seven YouGov polls showing three Tory leads, three draws and only one Labour lead. Pollster Anthony Wells reckons “something may indeed be afoot”…

Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll is awaited, more eagerly than usual, for confirmation of a trend. Blip or shift?

UPDATE 22:30: False dawn, maybe?

*Ashcroft, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos-Mori, Opinium, Populus, Survation, TNS-BMRB and YouGov.

Ashcroft Scottish Marginal Polling Presentation

537 Pollsters, Academics and Journalists Call the Election

psa-experts

The Political Studies Association has asked 465 academics, 45 journalists and 27 pollsters to predict the election outcome and they concluded:

Our inaugural expert survey points towards a tight election, in which Labour is marginal favourite to come out ahead in terms of seats – but where the gap between the parties in terms of both predicted votes and seats is so small as to make it pretty much neck-and-neck.

What is technically known as “a toss up”…

Download full report here.

Survation: Farage 11 Points Ahead in Thanet

A much-needed boost for UKIP after previous polls showing Farage trailing in the seat…

UPDATE: Andrew Cooper, boss at rival pollsters Populus and late of Downing Street, says Survation has screwed up the data:

UPDATE II: Survation restate their position on past voting intention methodology – implicitly saying that it is in fact Andrew Cooper who doesn’t understand the data. Pointing out that 20% of a constituency churns between general elections.  We’ll find out which methodology works best on May 8…

POLL: Should Rifkind Resign From Intelligence Select Committee?


Should Sir Malcolm Rifkind stand down to spend more time with the lifestyle to which he aspires?

Green Party Surge is Cashless

donations-q4-2014

According to the Electoral Commission the parties received donations totaling:

  • Conservative Party – £8,345,687
  • Labour Party – £7,163,988
  • Liberal Democrats – £3,038,500
  • UK Independence Party (UKIP) – £1,505,055
  • Green Party – £248,520

Which means the Green surge is cashless, Labour having almost 30 times as their more left-wing rivals whereas the Tories have less than 5 times as much as UKIP. LibDem finances are doing considerably better than their polling would suggest…

Tories Open Up 4 Point Lead With ICM

Screen Shot 2015-02-16 at 13.19.39

ICM were the most accurate pollsters in 2010.

This could shift the narrative this week…

 

Mellow Yellow Numbers

Last year Guido reported on the concern of close Clegg family friends, who were worried the Deputy Prime Minister was ‘in a really bad place’. Despite Cleggy claiming he is far chirpier than his demeanor let on, today’s Survation[…]

+ READ MORE +

Jim On The Run

Jim Murphy has pulled out of a public appearance today, after the McAshcroft poll pointed to a total rout for the party north of the border. Guido is told that Scottish Labour hope to ‘reschedule’ a stunt that would have […]

+ READ MORE +

Poll: Both Alexanders Set to Lose Seats to SNP

In what appears to be a premature data dump of Lord Ashcroft’s much anticipated Scotland polling, Danny Alexander is predicted to lose his seat at the election:

Screen Shot 2015-02-03 at 23.50.33

As is Douglas Alexander:

Screen Shot 2015-02-03 at 23.53.41

Not Great for Alexanders…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Ashcroft Focus Group: Cameron is Like Dick Dastardly

Lord Ashcroft has asked a focus group which cartoon character they think the party leaders most resemble:

Ed Miliband is “Elmer Fudd, in perennial but fruitless pursuit of the Prime Ministerial wabbit”…[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Mary Creagh’s coded attack on Ed Miliband…

‘I want the country to be united behind a single vision, we aren’t going to do it by sort of having a Rubik’s Cube approach to politics’. 

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