Saturday, May 17, 2014

Round-Up of Differing ComRes & ICM Poll Results

Thursday, May 15, 2014

The Balls Offensive

With Ed Balls dissing Douglas Alexander on LBC last night, this morning his wife Yvette Cooper has launched another broadside against the embattled election coordinator. As Guido reported earlier in the week, Alexander is under attack internally from the likes of Michael Dugher for not “taking the fight to UKIP”, and today that row has spilled over to the pages of the Mirror:

“Like their plans for NHS charges or millionaire tax cuts, UKIP’s Thatcherite policies are worse than David Cameron’s. Pulling out of Europe won’t help. That risks jobs. Better to get EU reforms – including better controls when countries join.

We mustn’t ignore UKIP … nor must we imitate them – we are challenging all the other parties because they have no answers to help working people.”

Finally it appears at least one faction in Labour has noticed the party ahead of them in the EU polling rather than being obsessed by the one languishing in last place. Looks a lot like a coordinated Balls camp shift…

Monday, May 12, 2014

Tories Beat UKIP to First Place in Guardian/ICM Euros Poll

Tonight’s Guardian/ICM poll has the Tories in first place for the Euros on 27%, ahead of UKIP on 26%. Labour drop to third on 24%. In their state of the parties poll the Tories are also in first, this time two points clear of Labour, on 33% and 31% respectively. Things get even worse for Miliband in the leadership poll, he has a worse approval rating than Clegg:

UKIP will say this is an outlier for the Euros, though Labour will struggle for an excuse given the Ashcroft polling earlier. If it rings true it is devastating for both parties…

Tories Take Lead in Ashcroft Telephone Polling

The Tories have pulled ahead in a national poll for the first time in two years. The Ashcroft/ConHome telephone poll will cheer CCHQ, though it’s a slender lead. Ashcroft says:

“one thing I should point out is that the Tory lead is somewhat more slender than it looks: if one fewer interviewee had named the Conservatives the party’s score would have been rounded down to 33 per cent rather than up to 34 per cent, and the lead would be down to one point.”

The psychological impact is far more important than the details though. 

Sunday, May 4, 2014

YouGov: LibDems Now Behind Greens in Fifth Place

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

UKIP 11% Clear Among Those Certain to Vote

UKIP are up 8 points on the beginning of April according to this Euro election poll by ITV/ComRes, now 11 points clear of Labour among those certain to vote. The Tories are down 4 points on just 18%. UKIP’s support is entrenched and growing…

Monday, April 28, 2014

UKIP Stealing 1 in 5 2010 Labour Voters

Labour are getting spooked by the rise of Red UKIP. Ed’s British guru Lord Glasman used his interview with the Sunday Times to warn middle-class metropolitan Miliband that he is haemorrhaging working class votes to Farage:

“This is a long-term trend since 2001, in terms of the working-class vote just declining quite dramatically. The Labour middle-class vote held up [in 2010]. It was the working-class vote that died. These are often people who are earning, who have jobs, but they don’t see Labour as representing their interests. There was possibly an assumption at first that [the rise of Ukip] would just work against the Tories. But there is a view that says that after the European and local elections are over, there could be a swing back to the Conservatives of Ukip voters. But will there be necessarily a swing back to Labour from the Ukip voters?”

Do the numbers back him up? 

YouGov’s poll this weekend found that almost one in five of Labour’s 2010 voters said they would be voting UKIP on May 22. One in ten Labour 2010 voters said they would vote UKIP in 2015. That said UKIP is still hurting the Tories and LibDems far more. Just 46% of Tory 2010 voters are sticking with Dave for the Euros. The same number have defected to UKIP…

Sunday, April 27, 2014

UKIP Winning Despite Media Attacks

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

euro-yougov-april-14

YouGov UKIP 31% CON 19%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 9% 

Despite the BBC-led commentariat throwing the kitchen sink at Farage, UKIP are ahead nationally.

Papers don’t like to back losers, expect the commentariat to fracture soon…

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Public Says UKIP Posters Aren’t Racist
Agree With Farage That They Reflect Reality

YouGov’s polling is conclusive: the public does not agree the UKIP posters are racist, offensive or ignorant, with 57% saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality. More support them than oppose them.

Also worth noting that 61% of 2010 Tory voters support the posters, with 68% of 2010 Tories saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality.

Goes to show what the out of touch Oxbridge-educated metropolitan establishment elite know…

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

POLL: UKIP on 27% for Euro Elections

This morning’s Sun/YouGov poll has UKIP on 27% for next month’s Euros, just three points off Labour. The Tories are well down in third place on 22% and the LibDems are on 10%. As you can see by clicking the tabs on our interactive graph, the only redeeming news for Dave is that voting intentions for 2015 see much of that UKIP support in the Euros come home to the Tories. Faced with Miliband in No. 10, the Tories are on 34%, three points behind Labour on 37%. UKIP are on 12% for the general election, with the LibDems again on 10%. The poll was carried out on Monday and Tuesday this week – the ‘Tory establishment stooge’ attacks haven’t made any difference to voters…


Seen Elsewhere

5 Things We Learned From Guido’s Party | GQ
Revealed: Guido Fawkes Anniversary Dinner Guestlist | Peter Oborne
More Owen Jones Errors | Michael Ezra
Why Should Men Get Equal Maternity Leave? | Laura Keynes
Dentists Have Last Laugh Over Sneering Keynes | FT
Why’s Clegg Giving Men Paternity Leave? | Conservative Women
Cam Cannot Stem EU Immigration | David Keighley
9 Mansion Tax Questions for Ed Balls | TPA
Politicians are Lying to You About Immigration | Alex Wickham
Give Journalists Public Interest Defence in Law | Guardian
Cameron is Going to Have to Deal With UKIP | Dan Hodges


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Chris Bryant talks to the Times Diary about a famous gay actor:

“I don’t think I’ve had sex with him. He says we had sex in Clapham. I’m fairly certain I’ve never had sex south of the river”



Progressive Inclusion Champion says:

Great to hear Carswell call for inclusive policies and that UKIP must stand for first and second generation immigrants as much as the English.


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