Wednesday, December 4, 2013

GRAPHS: Labour 20 Points Clear in Key Marginals

Two more Survation polls on key marginals out this morning. If the trends in the three constituencies polled so far turn out to be representative, it is pretty clear what the consequences are for the Tories. In Great Grimsby Labour are 20 points clear, as UKIP rise to second place on 22%:

In Dudley North Labour have another 20 point lead, with the Tories down 12% on 2010 and the LibDems on 2%, almost competely wiped out. UKIP are up on 23%.

More worryingly for the Tories, 70 percent of UKIP voters say they did not vote Tory in 2010. So they are aren’t exactly going to come home. The UKIP effect on 2015 is becoming ever clearer…

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

UKIP on 30% in South Thanet

Retiring Tory MP Laura Sandys was well-liked in parliament but an arch-Europhile and a dripping wet, so South Thanet always offered potential for Farage. Now she is standing down there is no incumbency factor either, and a seat-specific poll from Survation has the Tories down 20 points in third place on 28%.

Labour are up in first in 35%, though it is UKIP’s 24 point increase to 30%, just 5 points behind Labour, that is interesting. Arguably most worryingly for Cameron, 78% of UKIP voters said they wouldn’t vote Tory even if there was no UKIP candidate and 52% said they did not care if Miliband became PM. Voting purple puts red in, and the Tories are so far completely failing to convince voters of the consequences…

Via Survation and Mike Smithson.

Friday, November 8, 2013

GRAPH: Majority Support Removal of Spare Room Subsidy

More evidence to show that Labour are consistently losing the debate on welfare. Even on the spare room subsidy – Labour’s “hated bedroom tax” – the public support the government. 54% say it is fair that people living in social housing who have more bedrooms than they need should receive less housing benefit. Just 27% disagree. The bedroom ‘tax’ is Labour’s favourite means of painting the Tories as callous and out of touch, the only problem is the public supports the policy…

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Tories and Labour Neck and Neck

Ed’s poll lead hasn’t frozen, it’s melted away.

Compare and contrast to last month above…

Monday, September 2, 2013

POLL: 71% Say Parliament Made Right Call on Syria
Miliband Loses Public Approval Battle

Despite 71% of the public thinking that Parliament made the right call over Syria, it’s Ed Miliband that comes out of it worse according to an ICM poll for the BBC. The full tables can be found here but, here are top line figures:

On which leader got it right:

On the UK’s image abroad:

Ed may have won the day on Thursday, but it doesn’t seem to be doing much for him.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Poll Ed-Ache

Where’s Ed Miliband has been the question on everyone’s lips this week. Well after briefly surfacing to be egged yesterday, today we find him languishing in an Evening Standard poll. The paper have gone with the extremely delicate headline “Sorry Ed, they’re just not that into you: Six out of 10 don’t like Labour leader Miliband”:

“63 per cent of people say they do not like Mr Miliband, up from 56 per cent last October and 51 per cent in January 2011. The latest score is his worst as leader and compares to ex-Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s in July 2008.” 

The Son of Brown is finding it hard to break free from his political father’s shadow.

And as if he did not have enough on his plate, over at the Intercontinental Westminster, they have renamed their Eggy Bread Wedge on the breakfast menu “The Miliband Special”.

Personally Guido would have gone with Ed’s Benedict…

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Unite Behind Right-Wing Press

One gem hidden away at the bottom of Lord Ashcroft’s Unite polling today. As much as Ed and Red Len might want to think otherwise, just 11% of Unite members read the Guardian and Mirror respectively. Turns out not far off double that read the Mail and the Sun. Good on them.

Via @schofieldkevin

Poll Results: 58% Say MPs Ungrateful and Overpaid

This morning, following his story about lazy male MPs demanding longer lie-ins, Guido asked readers how they would describe the attitude of MPs to work. Over 2,000 responded and the results are in:

A rather damning indictment of the public’s attitude to MPs. Though Guido isn’t sure quite what the 17% of readers who say they “work hard for little reward and deserve praise” are smoking. Suppose they could have been MPs…

Lazy Male MPs Want Longer Lie-Ins

Lazy male MPs are demanding longer lie-ins before they start work in the morning. Leaked internal polling commissioned by the House of Commons Procedure Committee, in charge of sitting hours, reveals that 56% of male MPs say early starts are having a “negative impact” on the House’s effectiveness. 58% of men oppose rules stopping them from bunking off Tuesday mornings, while many are unhappy at having to be in for 9:30am on Thursdays. 116 MPs polled had the cheek to argue early starts have a negative impact on their personal effectiveness. It turns out the girls are far harder-working, 54% of women MPs are happy with the current family-friendly arrangement. Since Parliament isn’t sitting again until September 2nd they can snooze all day for the rest of the summer…

In response to the poll of MPs who want longer lie-ins, Guido thought we should poll voters to find out what they think:

Only 3 in 10 Unite Members Would Opt In to Political Fund
Just 12% Would Join Labour Party

A damning Lord Ashcroft poll of Unite members out this morning. If members had to opt in to the political fund, where their membership fees go towards the Labour Party, only 30% would choose to do so. 53% say they would not. 57% want the rules changed to an opt-in system. As evidence of just how unrepresentative and anti-democratic Unite is, if members who opted in to the political fund were no longer automatically made affiliated Labour members, just 12% would join the party as an individual member. 65% of Unite members say that donating funds to Labour is not an effective way of advancing their interests. Most amusingly only 16% could name Len McCluskey when given a photo, confusing him with Sir Alex Ferguson.

Last night Miliband announced a “Special Conference” to “ensure that affiliated members are given a real choice about joining the party”. This poll shows exactly why they need to change. And exactly why they won’t…


Seen Elsewhere

Bercow’s £12,000 of VIP Sporting Freebies | Sun
Aldous Huxley v George Orwell | FatPita
Blinkered BBC is Ripe for Reform | David Keighley
Calls for Bercow to Face Inquiry | Mail
Labour Mad to Fight Tories on Tax | Dan Hodges
Right to be Forgotten is a Disaster | Padraig Reidy
Dave Could Be Finished Before 50 | James Forsyth
Why Do Politicians Keep Getting Caught on Tape? | BBC
Ed Guru: It’s Good to Tax the Dead | Mail
Dave Must Get Serious or He Will Lose | Tim Montgomerie
Polling Averages Trend | PoliticalBetting.com


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Knifed former civil service chief Bob Kerslake on his recent troubles:

“Many thks for kind wishes following back opn. Incision measured 16cm. A pretty big knife in the back! Photos on request.”



Rob Wilson says:

Without Predujice

Darling

What time will dinner be ready this evening?

Yours

Rob Wilson MP

In the interests of me I am placing a copy of this email in the public domain.


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