Guido’s Poll of Final Polls

Here is Guido’s poll of final polls, averaging out the final numbers from Populus, TNS, Opinium, ICM, Panelbase, YouGov, ComRes, Survation, Ashcroft and Ipsos MORI:

Funnily enough they have all converged. The Tories need them to be wrong…

TONIGHT’S FINAL POLLS

YouGov have polled 10,000 people:

The final ComRes poll:

And Survation:

The Tories need a better result than that…

Final ‘Gold Standard’ ICM Poll

Labour up three on last week. Not good for the Tories…

The Final Polls: Labour on 30% With Ashcroft

Tomorrow is the big day for most pollsters, with seven companies releasing their final numbers before the election. Today it is the turn of Populus and Lord Ashcroft:

Populus: CON 34, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13, GREEN 5

Ashcroft: CON 32, LAB 30, LD 11, UKIP 12, GREEN 7

The last time we’ll hear Lord A tell us “it’s a snapshot not a predicition” before polling day…

Final Polls of the Season

Mike Smithson has put together a list of the final polls in the run up to Thursday. The exit poll will be released on the stroke of ten, Thursday night. It’s a group effort from BBC/ITV News/Sky News and the pollsters, and was spot on in 2010…

Labour Back Ahead With Survation

Weird how this is the only poll showing Labour gaining rather than losing five points in the last week…

ICM: Cameron Wins Question Time

Guardian/ICM snap result:

icm

Cameron: 44%, Miliband: 38%, Clegg: 19%.

ComRes Election Poem

ComRes have for some reason commissioned a special election poem:

I PREFER DEMOCRACY
 
You can run a land with armies
You can rule a sea with boats
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with votes.
 
You can run a land with bullets
You can crush dissent with sticks 
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with ticks.
 
You can run a land with slogans
You can dominate with voice  
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with choice.
 
You can run a land with torture
You can keep control with fights
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with rights.
 
You can run a land with freedom
You can find a people’s heart
But if this is democracy
You have to play your part.
 
You can run a land that dances
You can run a land that rocks
By voting for democracy
With your cross inside a box.
 
Steve Turner 2015

Kill Guido now.

Labour Smashed in Ipsos MORI Drill Down

The PM’s approval rating is on the up. According the Standard’s polling:

“The percentage who are satisfied with his performance has jumped from 39 to 46 in two weeks, giving him his best net rating since 2012, at -2, which

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Tories Lead By 5 With Ipsos Mori

But the Tory lead is just one point with YouGov:

The final polls come […]

+ READ MORE +

Ashcroft: Farage and Clegg Behind

Worth taking with a large pinch of salt because Ashcroft doesn’t prompt candidates’ names, but he has UKIP behind in South Thanet:

And Clegg trailing in Sheffield Hallam:

Guido has a considerable amount of money saying otherwise in Sheffield…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Jim Murphy Reacts to Ipsos Mori Poll

An unfortuante juxtaposition as news of Labour’s impending doom in Scotland broke on Sky…

UPDATE:[…]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Cameron on Trump:

“I have to say that knowing the gruelling nature of the primaries and what you have to go through, anyone who makes it through that extraordinary contest to lead their party into a general election deserves our respect.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

BOTTOMS UP! HUGH BONNEVILLE CELEBRATES STAGE SUCCESS BOTTOMS UP! HUGH BONNEVILLE CELEBRATES STAGE SUCCESS
NUTJOB PLAID CANDIDATE: UK CREATED ISIS NUTJOB PLAID CANDIDATE: UK CREATED ISIS
MEDIA MINISTER MONITOR: LEAVE WINNING AIR WAR MEDIA MINISTER MONITOR: LEAVE WINNING AIR WAR
CPS SAYS UP TO COPS TO PURSUE TORIES CPS SAYS UP TO COPS TO PURSUE TORIES
IPSO: COKE PROBABLY WAS SNORTED AT MOMENTUM PARTY IPSO: COKE PROBABLY WAS SNORTED AT MOMENTUM PARTY
PMQS SKETCH: Corbyn Withstands Heavy Shelling PMQS SKETCH: Corbyn Withstands Heavy Shelling
DECC: Please Think Before You Print DECC: Please Think Before You Print
TOP TORY COPPER IN MILF PORN SHOCKER TOP TORY COPPER IN MILF PORN SHOCKER
SHAPPS THROWS FELDMAN UNDER THE BATTLE BUS SHAPPS THROWS FELDMAN UNDER THE BATTLE BUS
CORBYN REFUSES TO WITHDRAW HAMAS “FRIENDS” COMMENT 4 TIMES CORBYN REFUSES TO WITHDRAW HAMAS “FRIENDS” COMMENT 4 TIMES
SADIQ: “I’M SORRY” FOR RACIAL SLUR AGAINST MODERATE MUSLIMS SADIQ: “I’M SORRY” FOR RACIAL SLUR AGAINST MODERATE MUSLIMS
TWO MORE LABOUR COUNCILLORS RANTED ABOUT “JEWS” TWO MORE LABOUR COUNCILLORS RANTED ABOUT “JEWS”
CRUZ QUITS, HITS WIFE CRUZ QUITS, HITS WIFE
KHAN CALLED MODERATE MUSLIMS “UNCLE TOMS” ON IRANIAN STATE TV KHAN CALLED MODERATE MUSLIMS “UNCLE TOMS” ON IRANIAN STATE TV
NAZ SHAH RESIGNS FROM HOME AFFAIRS SELECT COMMITTEE NAZ SHAH RESIGNS FROM HOME AFFAIRS SELECT COMMITTEE
HAMAS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM CORBYN HAMAS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM CORBYN
LABOUR COUNCILLOR DEFENDS COMPARING JEWS TO HITLER LABOUR COUNCILLOR DEFENDS COMPARING JEWS TO HITLER
TOP CORBYNISTA MP TWEETED ABOUT PUTTING ISRAEL IN MID-WEST OF AMERICA TOP CORBYNISTA MP TWEETED ABOUT PUTTING ISRAEL IN MID-WEST OF AMERICA
GOVE TOPS CONHOME POLL AGAIN GOVE TOPS CONHOME POLL AGAIN
UBER, BUT FOR BREXIT UBER, BUT FOR BREXIT
LABOUR’S BANK HOLIDAY TIMELINE LABOUR’S BANK HOLIDAY TIMELINE
THIRD LABOUR COUNCILLOR SUSPENDED OVER “HITLER” TWEET THIRD LABOUR COUNCILLOR SUSPENDED OVER “HITLER” TWEET
LABOUR COUNCILLOR: ISRAEL BEHIND ISIS, “ZIONIST JEWS ARE A DISGRACE TO HUMANITY” LABOUR COUNCILLOR: ISRAEL BEHIND ISIS, “ZIONIST JEWS ARE A DISGRACE TO HUMANITY”
ANOTHER LABOUR POLITICIAN WANTS TO “RELOCATE” JEWS TO AMERICA ANOTHER LABOUR POLITICIAN WANTS TO “RELOCATE” JEWS TO AMERICA
DIANE ABBOTT CAR CRASH: ANTI-SEMITISM A “SMEAR” DIANE ABBOTT CAR CRASH: ANTI-SEMITISM A “SMEAR”
KHAN ALLY: “ISRAEL IS A TERRORIST STATE LIKE ISIS” KHAN ALLY: “ISRAEL IS A TERRORIST STATE LIKE ISIS”
DIANE ABBOTT DEFENDS NAZ SHAH, SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM ISN’T A PROBLEM FOR LABOUR DIANE ABBOTT DEFENDS NAZ SHAH, SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM ISN’T A PROBLEM FOR LABOUR
Fiorina Drops Fiorina Drops
£500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED £500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED
SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS