Ashcroft Tory Marginal Poll: One More Blue Seat Turns Red

According to Ashcroft’s latest projection, the following Tory MPs’ seats are on course to fall to Labour: Bob Blackman (Harrow East), Mike Weatherley (Hove), David Morris (Morecambe and Lunesdale), James Wharton (Stockton South).

Better news for Paul Maynard (Blackpool North and Cleveleys), Richard Graham (Gloucester), Chris Skidmore (Kingswood), Nicky Morgan (Loughborough) and Andrew Stephenson (Pendle), all set to hold on. Stuart Andrew in Pudsey is tied with Labour.

The only change from the last Ashcroft poll in these constituencies is Harrow East, whoch turns from blue to red. Ashcroft explains “The most notable movement across the board in this round of polling was a move towards the two main parties at the expense of UKIP”…

Jews Think David Star

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According to a Survation survey for the Jewish Chronicle, British Jews will vote overwhelmingly for David Cameron. 69% of Jewish voters said they would support the Tories with only 22% saying they would vote Labour.  Almost none plan to vote for the party of David Ward and Baroness Tonge

YouGov: Greens Seen as Most Honest Party

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According tp YouGov the FibDems are seen as the least trustworthy party.

Most honest or most naive? It is all relative…

ComRes ITV Poll: People More likely to Vote Labour As A Result of Debate

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The ComRes/ITV News Poll asked:  As a result of the debate are you more likely to vote for any of the following parties?

Poll Round Up: Miliband Fourth With YouGov

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YouGov have Miliband in fourth.

UPDATE: ICM/Guardian gives it to Miliband by a whisker…

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UPDATE II: ComRes shows a dead heat

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Survation:

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Ashcroft Poll: Clegg Behind in Sheffield Hallam

The LibDems have dismissed talk of Nick Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam as nonsense, but Lord Ashcroft has him trailing Labour by two points in the seat today. The rest of the LibDem battleground polling makes dire reading too. Just a snapshot…

Post-Paxo Poll of Polls

As of this morning there have been 5 polls since Paxo interviewed the two leaders. Averaging them all out it appears there has been no ‘Miliband bounce’ post-Paxo as Labour have hoping, the two main parties are still neck and neck. Both the Tories and Labour are squeezing up towards that 35% mark, while UKIP are feeling it down on an average 12%. The Green surge has fallen away slightly down on 5 points.

Not like the Sunday Times to have an errant poll throwing everyone off guard

Voters Don’t Trust ‘Em, Say Sod ‘Em

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If you want an illustration of just how low trust in politicians is nowadays, Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report has a classic example from last week:

I mentioned some YouGov polling about which taxes would rise under a Labour or Conservative government, conducted before Prime Minister’s Question time, Cameron ruling out a VAT rise and Ed Balls ruling out an NI rise. YouGov repeated those questions in this poll to see if they had changed. At the start of the week, 31% of people thought VAT would rise if the Conservatives won.

Following David Cameron ruling out a rise in VAT, this is now… 32%. At the start of the week 39% of people expected national insurance to rise if Labour won, but since Ed Balls ruled it out, that has changed to… 40%. A lovely illustration of how much of the politicians’ arguments, exchanges and pledges make not the slightest difference to public opinion.

Savour that. After the Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, the Right Honourable David Cameron and the Right Honourable Ed Balls both solemnly promised not to raise specific taxes, the public now believes they are actually more likely to do it. This is why, in Guido’s opinion, Nigel Farage is on to something with the vote winning campaign slogan: “Sod the lot. Vote UKIP”

ComRes ITV/Mail Poll Settles Tory Nerves

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After the YouGov poll on Sunday showing a 4% lead for Labour post-Paxman Tory nerves were frazzled. This morning ComRes has it; Con 36%, Lab 32%, Lib 9%, UKIP 12%, Green 5%.

That will settle Tory nerves…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Douglas Alexander Responds to ICM/Guardian Snap Poll Giving It 54% v 46% for Cameron

YouGov calls it for Dave too…

[…]

+ READ MORE +

How Would Party Leaders Spend Friday Night?

Lord Ashcroft’s focus group is back, this time asked how they think each party leader would spend a free Friday night:

Cameron: “get a helicopter to Cornwall” with Sam and the kids, or go “to his club” to engage in

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Tories Maintain Lead in “Gold Standard” 36% Poll

Looks like that Green surge has turned into a Green slump and the votes have gone back to Labour.

Labour up though in Guardian ICM.

 […]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Mary Creagh’s coded attack on Ed Miliband…

‘I want the country to be united behind a single vision, we aren’t going to do it by sort of having a Rubik’s Cube approach to politics’. 

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