Poll: UKIP Lead Increasing in Rochester & Strood

rochester-strood-survation-poll

The latest poll has UKIP 15% ahead of the Tories in Rochester & Strood.

The gap is increasing…

Ipsos Mori Poll: Labour Face Wipeout in Scotland

Remarkable Ipsos Mori poll out this afternoon putting Scottish Labour on just 23%, a massive fall from the 42% they won in 2010 and miles behind the SNP, who rocket to 52%.

STV reports:

“Those who would lose their seat include Jim Murphy, who is standing to be the next leader of Scottish Labour, Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran… The only Scottish Labour MPs who would survive would be Willie Bain in Glasgow North East, Tom Clarke in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath and Ian Davidson in Glasgow South West.”

No wonder Jim Murphy is planning his next career move…

UPDATE:

Ed Miliband’s Ratings Still Tanking

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Rochester & Strood Constituency Poll
UKIP Takes 13-Point Lead Over Tories

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Ashcroft Poll Shows UKIP Turning Tory-Held Marginals Labour

Sobering polling for the Tories from Lord Ashcroft today, who has a snapshot of voting intentions in ten Tory-held marginals with Labour currently in second place (plus Corby, which went Labour mid-term). Nine of the eleven are Labour gains. Ashcroft concludes “swings to Labour appear to be related to the UKIP presence”, finding:

“UKIP could hamper Labour in Tory-held target seats by diverting voters who might otherwise switch straight from blue to red – though the evidence so far is that this effect is not yet strong enough in these seats to counteract the erosion of the Tory vote.”

28% of UKIP voters polled say they’d prefer a Labour government, 35% want a Tory win…

If the Tories Lose in 2015, Blame Cooper Not Farage

andrew-cooper

Matthew D’Ancona once quoted a “Cameron ally” dismissing the long-term threat posed by UKIP. D’Ancona’s soothsaying source predicted Farage’s party “should reach its peak in the European elections on May 22″, leading the Telegraph columnist to urge Dave to “forget UKIP”, warn “too much time is still devoted to soothing those who might jump ship” and profess “UKIP will not be Cameron’s biggest problem”. 

The ill-fated “peak UKIP” analysis adopted by Downing Street up until recently was based on the fatally flawed insight of Cameron’s über-modernising gay-marriage architect and pollster Andrew Cooper, who told the Prime Minister two years ago that UKIP would just be a “flash in the pan”. He once argued via Powerpoint slides in a presentation to Tory MPs that UKIP’s rise was down to “mid-term grumbles” rather than anything more serious. Since then UKIP have stubbornly maintained their position in the polls, two Tory MPs have defected, thousands of true blue activists have joined the purple army and they have just taken a formerly safe Tory seat in a by-election. If the Tories lose in 2015, Cooper is the man most to blame – he may well go down in British political history as the worst adviser/pollster of the modern era…

Ashcroft Poll’s Margin of Error Was 17%

lord-ashcroft-H+M

On Monday newbie pollster Michael Ashcroft told us that Labour was 19% ahead in Heywood & Middleton. His polling in the marginals has also consistently forecast Labour making a remarkably strong showing. Something that over in CCHQ Grant Shapps and Lynton Crosby bitterly dispute. They will take some consolation that Ashcroft’s margin of error on Thursday in Labour’s favour was 17%…

Today’s By-Elections: The Numbers

In 2010 UKIP decided not to run a candidate against Douglas Carswell, clearing the way for the Tories to beat Labour by 53% to 25% and hand Carswell a majority of 12,068. Some last minute jitters/expectation management in Clacton from a source close to Carswell suggest he is nowhere near the 32 point lead given to him by Lord Ashcroft’s most recent poll in the constituency. UK Polling Report‘s demographics show Clacton has a high proportion of over 65s, a high proportion not in work and very low numbers of ethnic minorities:

Meanwhile up in Heywood and Middleton:

Labour are on course for a comfortable hold despite a party aide today telling the Staggers Miliband’s attitude to the constituency has been “deeply frustrating” and that they are “completely out of touch” with the concerns of local voters. Even the uninspiring Liz McInnes should be able to defend the late Jim Dobbin’s 5,971 majority. Here are the demographics from UK Polling Report:

We should have the results in the early hours…

Third Post-Conference Poll Puts Tories Ahead

Dave’s post-conference bounce continues this afternoon, with a national poll from Lord Ashcroft putting the Tories two points ahead of Labour. That’s the third poll since the PM’s speech to give the Tories a lead, following YouGov in the Sun[…]

CON 35 / LAB 34: Tories Take Poll Lead for First Time Since 2012

Tax cuts are popular? Who knew![…]

Tories Out-Poll Labour On Almost Every Issue
Except “For Who Are You Going to Vote?”

yougov-govs

“Do you think the Labour government of 1997-2010 or the current Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government has been more effective in dealing with each of the following areas”?

This from YouGov’s poll for the Times RedBox would suggest that on every […]

Balls Can Spin, But Labour Numbers Don’t Lie

As Ed Balls takes to the stage to try and pretend that his party has an economic credibility, the facts just do not fit the rhetoric.

Only four per cent of candidates standing for Labour at the next election think […]



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Quote of the Day

Andrew Neil on the dying Dead Tree Press

“I read more bloggers now than mainstream columnists, because they’ve got more interesting things to say. Too many columnists today make you think, ‘Yeah, I think you’ve said that 10 times before and I’ve just noticed your column has not go a single fact in it’”.

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