According to a poll by Survation the student demonstrations have actually cost students support. The net change in support since the demonstrations has been negative, down 13%:

The toytown revolutionaries don’t seem to grasp that tearing flags off the Cenotaph, pissing on Churchill’s statue and wrecking London won’t help their cause. Who’d have thunk it?

Guido noted with a wry smile that Labour’s poll standing increased when they were leaderless. Ed Miliband was also the first Labour leader since polling began not to get a bounce when taking over, and now he’s gone on paternity leave you’ll never guess what’s happened. As Guido predicted, Labour have risen in the rankings…

Funny how Labour have their highest poll rating since before the-election-that-never-was when the leader they did not choose, or want, disappears from public life for a week. David must be smirking…

*Osborne trick or treat slasher mask courtesy of The Mirror (download here N.B. 22 megabytes).

Guido’s poll yesterday sampled more people than most polling companies manage for their political polls splashed across national newspapers. He likes to think his readers give a fair and balanced view too. The results are in and show an overwhelming desire for the BBC to be scrapped:

These one IP address, one vote polls might be a regular thing…

Ed Balls liked to tell the hustings that he was the one the Tories feared most, hence the attacks on him from the right-wing media. Guido takes the opposite view, he is the one that opponents of the Labour Party most badly want to win the Labour leadership because he would be as disastrous as his mentor was for Labour. Today during PMQs Guido polled online 462 co-conspirators during the PMQs live-chat to test the theory. The results are clear:

39% of co-conspirators want Ed Balls to be Labour leader, 30% want Abbot, 23% Ed Miliband, 7% David Miliband and only 2% Andy Burnham. If only, alas punters make Balls favourite to be eliminated in the first round…

Someone is going to get a shock based on these Sunday Times/YouGov polling results. With two weeks to go until the results are known and voting already taking place it is, all are agreed, going to be close. Punters are predicting a win for David Miliband whilst pollsters YouGov are predicting a narrow win for Ed Miliband.  Admittedly the punters could change their positions on this news, but as things stand currently they are ignoring the pollster overall.

Guido is sticking with his money on David Miliband to beat his brother Ed because he disagrees with the YouGov / LeftFootForward analysis of how the second preference votes will break. It will be close undoubtedly and there does seem to have been a shift in the union affiliates section of the electoral college and Guido has taken money off David to win that section (Ed is now 60% favourite to win the union members vote). David Miliband is still overall favourite to win the leadership, the MEP/MPs votes and the members votes. Guido can only think that the switch in union affiliates to Ed is a result of Union bosses’ endorsements sent out with ballot papers.

UPDATE : Ed Balls remains favourite to be eliminated in the first round. Oh dear…

Buried away in the Sunday Times was a poll on the Hague story – 46% of people asked think the Foreign Secretary was telling the truth about his relationship with Christopher Myers. That leaves over half the country doubting the Foreign Secretary’s words.

Asked about that statement, a small majority of 59% think he was right to publish it leaving a lot doubting Hague’s political judgement. On whether it was right to share a room  a slim majority (43% to 42%) think not. For those lining up to say this is a non-story, perhaps they should take on board that well over half of voters now have serious doubts about the man representing them on the global stage. Even the loyalists at ConservativeHome have registered a drop in approval. Easy on those “I will survive” tweets…

Ipsos Mori have been tracking the public’s attitude towards spending cuts. Looks like this is another argument the deficit deniers are losing. When asked did they agree that “There is a real need to cut spending on public services in order to pay off the very high national debt we now have” the response was resoundingly in favour:

Some on the Labour left are basically advocating that the party collectively sticks its fingers in its ears on the deficit and then its head in the sand as well on cuts for good measure. The next Labour leader will need to rethink his deficit denial if Labour wants to be seen as credible on the economy…

Here is something you probably didn’t ever expect to read: George Osborne is the most popular Tory chancellor in modern history according to pollsters Ipsos Mori.

Guido called them up to check. Yes they have asked the same question since Geoffrey Howe; “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with what X is doing?”

Osborne has a 20% net approval rating, higher than Lawson’s at the time of the boom, higher than that nice Mr Major’s rating, higher than Ken Clarke when he handed over the goldilocks economy to Labour. Incidentally, Darling had a 20% net disapproval rating immediately before him.