Labour Three Points Behind Tories in New Ipsos Mori Poll

Labour types crowing about yesterday’s outlier ICM poll aren’t so chirpy about this one putting the Tories three points ahead. Meanwhile the Green Surge continues. Just 4% below UKIP…

Greens 2 Points Ahead of LibDems For First Time

Labour and UKIP types talking down the Green Surge should beware today’s YouGov/Sun poll. For the first time the Greens are two points clear of the LibDems, with Natalie Bennett’s party hotting up to 8% and Nick Clegg’s melting away to 6%. As you can see from the full numbers in Guido’s tracker, the Greens’ poll rating is rising faster than the anthropogenic concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere…

Labour Oppositions Never Gain Ground in Final Six Months

Fascinating analysis on ConHome showing how Labour’s poll ratings six months out from elections have historically compared with the final election result. Guido’s graph above illustrates how “Labour consistently end up winning fewer votes in the general election than the polls would have suggested six months in advance”. Lewis Baston concludes: “Governments gain more often than oppositions: if my Conservative-supporting readers want some comfort, there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months”. Something for Tory MPs to cling onto going into next year…

YouGov/Sun Poll Tracker: Greens in Fourth Again

The YouGov website does not include the Green Party in their voting intentions graphs, so Guido has decided to give them their deserved billing. Once again the Greens are in fourth today, knocking the LibDems down into fifth. As you can see above this is starting to look like a trend. You can read the numbers in full here. Natalie Bennett says “a grassroots green revolution is under way”…

Poll: Labour Won’t Deliver “Programme British People Want”

How many relaunches is that now? Ed Miliband’s big speech on the economy today is being tipped by sympathetic quarters of the press as showing Labour are serious about reducing the deficit, so at least there’s no chance he will forget to mention it this time. Yet Ed is also going to attack the Tories for planning to cut spending to “1930s levels”, insisting “That is not our programme, that will never be our programme, and I do not believe it is the programme the British people want”. Just one problem: a ComRes poll for ITV out last night shows that this is the “programme the British people want”. 33% support cutting spending to 1930s levels, 26% oppose. Another great relaunch success…

Official: No One Cares About #CameronMustGo

The less reality-based elements of the loony left are still banging on at the ‘biased’ media failing to cover a hashtag calling for the PM to step down. Today’s Populus poll offers a more likely reason: no one cares. Not one person in the real world thought it was a story this week:

The final proof it was never news…

GREEN SURGE: LibDems Slump to Fifth Place

Two polls in two consecutive days now have the Greens ahead of the LibDems, with YouGov now putting Clegg in fifth place. Natalie Bennett’s party meanwhile rise from 7% to 8% this morning. The Staggers ask why the LibDems aren’t panicking, though Labour should also be watching the Green Surge with concern. It’s their votes the Greens are coming for…

Public Think Liberal Elite Media Biased Against UKIP
54% Believe Politico-Media Class Trying to Stop UKIP

Media bias  you gov

Stitch-up2[1]Fascinating research from YouGov, confirms what Guido has always believed, you can’t fool the public all the time. The mainstream media’s campaign to demonise UKIP is recognised by the public to be a result of a biased media. UKIP have the Tory press and the left-wing papers / BBC against them, so it is hardly surprising that the public recognise the bias against that party most clearly. It is widely accepted by political strategists that the over-the-top press campaign against UKIP during the European elections in May was so transparently biased that it had no negative effect and probably counter-productively bolstered UKIP’s vote.

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time…

Osborne’s Poll Ratings Slide
As Conservative Lead on the Economy Grows

As Osborne delivers his Autumn Statement today, a YouGov poll for the Sun finds his personal ratings have dropped from -3 to -8 over the last nine months. Optimism that the economy will improve is down from 39% to 25%, […]

+ READ MORE +

Poll: Public Backs Brexit if Cam Plan Fails

A poll for the Standard tonight finds Londoners currently want to stay in the EU by 45% to 37%, but the numbers reverse almost completely if Cameron’s renegotiation attempts fail. No pressure…

UPDATE: And a ComRes/ITV poll finds if […]

+ READ MORE +

Poll: UKIP-Tory Tactical Voting in Doncaster Would Unseat Ed
+Labour Just 3% Behind Clegg in Sheffield
+Farage Trails Tories By 5% in South Thanet

“How many Tories in Doncaster will be tempted to lend UKIP their vote, just this once?” ponders Lord A.

Vote Tory, get Labour up in Donny…

UPDATE I: Clegg is not safe in Sheffield Hallam, while Farage is struggling in […]

+ READ MORE +

Labour Marginals Lead 8%

marginals comres

Labour appear to be holding on to their lead in 40 key marginals…

UPDATE: Full tables.[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Labour’s Austin Mitchell muses on the campaign:

“What’s the problem? No use pointing at the leader. Too late to change and unnecessary for Miliband is doing well at Question Time. His problem is connecting with the real world. He doesn`t speak people and his protective team of naive kids are playing West Wing rather than letting the leader relate to real people. We could point at the party, shrunk in numbers and enthusiasm because everything, from policy formulation to candidate selection, comes top down rather than bubbling up from below so campaigning becomes the opium of members deprived of any real role, though they`re not even sure what they’re campaigning about, with or for, but its role is marginal.”

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