Monday, May 12, 2014

Tories Take Lead in Ashcroft Telephone Polling

The Tories have pulled ahead in a national poll for the first time in two years. The Ashcroft/ConHome telephone poll will cheer CCHQ, though it’s a slender lead. Ashcroft says:

“one thing I should point out is that the Tory lead is somewhat more slender than it looks: if one fewer interviewee had named the Conservatives the party’s score would have been rounded down to 33 per cent rather than up to 34 per cent, and the lead would be down to one point.”

The psychological impact is far more important than the details though. 

Sunday, May 4, 2014

YouGov: LibDems Now Behind Greens in Fifth Place


eu--yougov-poll

Among those who tell YouGov that they are certain to vote the LibDems are in fifth place.

Euro-wipeout for the most europhile party…

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

UKIP 11% Clear Among Those Certain to Vote

UKIP are up 8 points on the beginning of April according to this Euro election poll by ITV/ComRes, now 11 points clear of Labour among those certain to vote. The Tories are down 4 points on just 18%. UKIP’s support is entrenched and growing…

Monday, April 28, 2014

UKIP Stealing 1 in 5 2010 Labour Voters

Labour are getting spooked by the rise of Red UKIP. Ed’s British guru Lord Glasman used his interview with the Sunday Times to warn middle-class metropolitan Miliband that he is haemorrhaging working class votes to Farage:

“This is a long-term trend since 2001, in terms of the working-class vote just declining quite dramatically. The Labour middle-class vote held up [in 2010]. It was the working-class vote that died. These are often people who are earning, who have jobs, but they don’t see Labour as representing their interests. There was possibly an assumption at first that [the rise of Ukip] would just work against the Tories. But there is a view that says that after the European and local elections are over, there could be a swing back to the Conservatives of Ukip voters. But will there be necessarily a swing back to Labour from the Ukip voters?”

Do the numbers back him up? 

YouGov’s poll this weekend found that almost one in five of Labour’s 2010 voters said they would be voting UKIP on May 22. One in ten Labour 2010 voters said they would vote UKIP in 2015. That said UKIP is still hurting the Tories and LibDems far more. Just 46% of Tory 2010 voters are sticking with Dave for the Euros. The same number have defected to UKIP…

Sunday, April 27, 2014

UKIP Winning Despite Media Attacks

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

euro-yougov-april-14

YouGov UKIP 31% CON 19%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 9% 

Despite the BBC-led commentariat throwing the kitchen sink at Farage, UKIP are ahead nationally.

Papers don’t like to back losers, expect the commentariat to fracture soon…

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Public Says UKIP Posters Aren’t Racist
Agree With Farage That They Reflect Reality

YouGov’s polling is conclusive: the public does not agree the UKIP posters are racist, offensive or ignorant, with 57% saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality. More support them than oppose them.

Also worth noting that 61% of 2010 Tory voters support the posters, with 68% of 2010 Tories saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality.

Goes to show what the out of touch Oxbridge-educated metropolitan establishment elite know…

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

POLL: UKIP on 27% for Euro Elections

This morning’s Sun/YouGov poll has UKIP on 27% for next month’s Euros, just three points off Labour. The Tories are well down in third place on 22% and the LibDems are on 10%. As you can see by clicking the tabs on our interactive graph, the only redeeming news for Dave is that voting intentions for 2015 see much of that UKIP support in the Euros come home to the Tories. Faced with Miliband in No. 10, the Tories are on 34%, three points behind Labour on 37%. UKIP are on 12% for the general election, with the LibDems again on 10%. The poll was carried out on Monday and Tuesday this week – the ‘Tory establishment stooge’ attacks haven’t made any difference to voters…

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Coetzee Polling Presentation Reality Check

The Times has got hold of some polling slides presented by Nick Clegg’s taxpayer-funded strategist Ryan Coetzee, which give the LibDem leader suspiciously sky high approval ratings:

coetzee-slide-2-500x376

Compare Coetzee’s polling with that of independent companies however and the result is quite different. Back in October Ipsos Mori had 57% of the public saying they were dissatisfied with Clegg. In June they had his net approval rating at -37. YouGov meanwhile said he was the least popular party leader since Michael Foot.

Ed gets clapped by his brainwashed staff. Nick gets fantasy data. And Dave is surrounded by tits

UPDATE: Stephen Tall says he thinks this poll data is of “switchers” in target marginal seats. It still doesn’t explain why these people give a some 20% higher approval rating to Clegg than YouGov attributes to actual LibDem voters. Given these were produced by a civil servant, Coetzee, and the LibDem defence is that it is entirely legitimate and compatible with his role as a civil servant, we’ve FoI’d the presentation. Smells wrong…

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Even Labour MPs See Falling Unemployment, Economy Growing

comres-expectations

As the economy grows, Labour’s poll lead disappears…

UPDATE:  Note the 4% of Tories who think unemployment and economic growth are going to get worse are more pessimistic than their LibDem colleagues.

 

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Latest Polls Have New Highs for UKIP
Miliband Win Worse for Tories Than Farage Win

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

ComRes CON 29% (-3), LAB 35% (=), LDEM 7% (-2), UKIP 20% (+4)

Opinium CON 30% (-2), LAB 36% (+3), LDEM 7% (-3), UKIP 18% (+3)

Ipsos MORI CON 31%( -1), LAB 37% (+2), LDEM 9% (-4), UKIP 15% (+4)

The trend is clear, since the Nick ‘n Nige Euro Debate UKIP have gained at the expense largely of the LibDems and to a lesser extent the Tories. Clegg’s gamble on solidifying the pro-EU vote behind him has been a double-barrelled shot to his own foot. He came off worse and his mis-judgement has cost his party dearly. Guido hears LibDem loyalists now talking of them losing all their MEP’s seats…

Labour are 6% ahead in current polls, though this may not result in them winning the most seats at the Euro elections because when it comes to certainty to vote, UKIP voters are more motivated. CCHQ is dreading a UKIP victory at the polls sending their backbenchers into headless chicken mode. This chart shows why they should fear Labour winning more than UKIP winning:

ukip-source-voters

If Labour get beaten by UKIP in May the pressure on Ed will explode and the divisions in his party will come out into the open. Whereas if Labour wins Ed will have the wind behind him for the general election. UKIP voters are more likely to return to the Tories when it comes to a general election choice between Miliband and Cameron, therefore it will be a far worse portent for the Tories if Labour rather than UKIP wins in May.


Seen Elsewhere

Papers Pan Cam’s Immigration Pledge | ConHome
Deane of St Edmundsbury? | Times
Pay Volunteers and They Become Cheap Labour | Jill Kirby
UKIP Fundraiser Was Jailed for Running Brothels | Times
Bercow Faces Probe Over Pass Mystery | Mirror
Harman Breaks Rules on Paying Staff | Express
Labour Whinge About Sandi Toksvig Joke | Mail
BBC Boss Search in Disarray | Times
Tory Membership Set to Outstrip Labour | Staggers
Three Cheers for the David Brents | Ed Conway
Small State Keynesians, Anti-Corporate Hayekians? | Chris Dillow


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John McTernan told Channel 4 News

“You can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, you don’t win in politics without breaking legs.”



Rob Wilson says:

Without Predujice

Darling

What time will dinner be ready this evening?

Yours

Rob Wilson MP

In the interests of me I am placing a copy of this email in the public domain.


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