Osborne’s Poll Ratings Slide
As Conservative Lead on the Economy Grows

As Osborne delivers his Autumn Statement today, a YouGov poll for the Sun finds his personal ratings have dropped from -3 to -8 over the last nine months. Optimism that the economy will improve is down from 39% to 25%, while pessimism is up from 23% to 32%. The Chancellor’s credibility will hardly be helped this afternoon when he announces OBR numbers confirming he has missed his deficit forecasts and that there is a £50 billion black hole in public finances, when in the same speech he pledges:

  • £3 billion extra cash for the NHS
  • £15 billion for road improvement infrastructure spending
  • £400 million extra to the British Business Bank
  • £500 million of new lending guaranteed
  • No fresh cuts

Cynical Neo-Keynesianism nevertheless appears to be paying electoral dividends for the Conservatives, proving once again that voters prefer jam today to jam tomorrow. This generation of voters prefers to put the burden for its profligacy on the next generation…

osborne-poll

The Times leader puts it plainly: “What is clear is that he has decided to risk what progress has been made towards repairing the nation’s finances on an electorally inspired spending spree that will have to be funded… at least partly with debt.” Douglas Carswell has a point when he says Osborne will today deliver Gordon Brown’s 18th Autumn Statement

Poll: Public Backs Brexit if Cam Plan Fails

A poll for the Standard tonight finds Londoners currently want to stay in the EU by 45% to 37%, but the numbers reverse almost completely if Cameron’s renegotiation attempts fail. No pressure…

UPDATE: And a ComRes/ITV poll finds if a referendum was held tomorrow the UK would leave:

Poll: UKIP-Tory Tactical Voting in Doncaster Would Unseat Ed
+Labour Just 3% Behind Clegg in Sheffield
+Farage Trails Tories By 5% in South Thanet

“How many Tories in Doncaster will be tempted to lend UKIP their vote, just this once?” ponders Lord A.

Vote Tory, get Labour up in Donny…

UPDATE I: Clegg is not safe in Sheffield Hallam, while Farage is struggling in South Thanet:

UPDATE II: Miliband’s constituents trust Cameron and Osborne more with the economy than their own MP and Ed Balls:

UPDATE III: Unfortunately this turns out to be bollocks, see: Lord Ashcroft: I Screwed Up That Doncaster Poll, Sorry

Labour Marginals Lead 8%

marginals comres

Labour appear to be holding on to their lead in 40 key marginals…

UPDATE: Full tables.

Which Politician Would You Snog Under the Mistletoe?

Guido is donning his brown cords for the Political Studies Association awards dinner this evening. The PSA have done some very early festive polling to find out who the public would most like to stand under the mistletoe with. Clegg soars to 2%…

Working Klass Hero: The People Back Myleene Over Ed

You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

Today’s poll on Metro just about says it all:

At least he didn’t sniff a fellow guest on the show, this time.

Survation/Daily Record: 2% of Scots Trust Ed Miliband

2%scotas

The Labour supporting Daily Record has published this poll showing 2% of Scots trust Ed Miliband completely. The paper says he is “sending party towards General Election catastrophe”.

Far more Scots believe in the Loch Ness monster than Ed Miliband…

How UKIP Became More Attractive to Labour Voters

Writing in the Guardian, YouGov supremo Peter Kellner explains how UKIP’s support has changed in recent months. As Guido’s graphic shows, in January last year the party’s backers were overwhelmingly former Tory voters. Since then, the proportion of UKIP voters coming from Labour has trebled. The RedUKIP effect?

Miliband is Least Popular Leader Since Polling Began

This graphic from the Mail shows Ed Miliband’s net satisfaction ratings are the worst ever for any party leader six months before a general election, according to IpsosMori polls dating back to the 1970s. Save Ed…[…]

Tories 3 Points Ahead in New Mori Poll

Biggest Tory poll lead since 2010…[…]

Voters Say Labour More Likely to Win if They Sack Ed

A massive 49% of voters say Labour would be more likely to win the election if they sack Ed Miliband and replace him with someone else. This morning’s damning YouGov poll for LBC says just 5% believe slotting the Ed […]

Ed Miliband Polling Lower Than Gordon Brown

sun-yougov

YouGov have done some drilling down into the public’s expectations and perceptions for The Sunthe numbers are terrible for Ed Miliband. With six months to election day a mere 19% think he is up to the job […]



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Quote of the Day

Tim Shipman to Adam Boulton on the TV debates…

“If Cameron gets in a car to go to the debate, Lynton Crosby will stage a car crash.”

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