Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Only 3 in 10 Unite Members Would Opt In to Political Fund
Just 12% Would Join Labour Party

A damning Lord Ashcroft poll of Unite members out this morning. If members had to opt in to the political fund, where their membership fees go towards the Labour Party, only 30% would choose to do so. 53% say they would not. 57% want the rules changed to an opt-in system. As evidence of just how unrepresentative and anti-democratic Unite is, if members who opted in to the political fund were no longer automatically made affiliated Labour members, just 12% would join the party as an individual member. 65% of Unite members say that donating funds to Labour is not an effective way of advancing their interests. Most amusingly only 16% could name Len McCluskey when given a photo, confusing him with Sir Alex Ferguson.

Last night Miliband announced a “Special Conference” to “ensure that affiliated members are given a real choice about joining the party”. This poll shows exactly why they need to change. And exactly why they won’t…

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Two Things to Note From Today’s Guardian/ICM Poll

Labour and the Tories are neck and neck with UKIP trailing off in this morning’s ICM poll for the Guardian. Though as Mike Smithson explains ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP at the 2009 Euros, where it undershot their result by 6.5% and had them in fourth place when they came second. Also worth taking into account that at the weekend Survation had UKIP on 20%, Opinium on 19% and ComRes on 18%. Still, who knew union bashing and welfare reform was so popular?

Friday, July 5, 2013

UKIP on 22% in Survation Poll

One point behind the Tories. Interesting to see how today’s vote affects that…

Friday, June 7, 2013

Dave Less Popular Than Tories For First Time

One of Dave’s best defences against leadership chatter has been the line that he is personally more popular than the Tory party as a whole. Worryingly for him, for the first time that is no longer the case. This Lord Ashcroft poll is pretty bad for the PM:

Paging Adam Afriyie…

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

EU Poll Split Down Middle

A big poll for Sky News and Survation this morning. Their EU referendum poll is split down the middle with the No vote just shading it. Interestingly the majority say they won’t change their mind, 96% say they either won’t change their mind or that there is just a small chance of them changing their minds. Meaning the 5% up for grabs (2.5% margin of error) will swing it either way. What’s the betting most of them are wavering Yes voters…

Monday, June 3, 2013

Balls Abandons Universality to Save His Job

Ed Balls has finally blinked, tearing up the party’s previously unbreakable commitment to universal benefits, alienating the Labour left and cynically conceding to the centre ground. He announced today that Labour would cut winter fuel payments to the rich, something Miliband has previously defended as “a bedrock of our society”. Channelling Osborne, Balls will say:

“In tough economic times we have to make difficult choices about priorities for public spending and what the right balance is between universal and targeted support. So at a time when the public services that pensioners and others rely on are under strain, it can no longer be a priority to continue paying the winter fuel allowance to the wealthiest pensioners.”

This is of almost no financial significance, it is however hugely significant politically. Abandoning such a historically fundamental Labour policy reveals much of Balls’ fears for his own job. He knows that if he cannot improve flat-lining public confidence in his competency by next year Miliband has a decision to make. This LabourList/Survation poll is why Balls knows being fired could easily become a reality:

ed-kinnockIn the Sun today Trevor Kavanagh says Miliband is the new Kinnock. This is a comparison Guido has made in the past, not least to Ed himself, that he would go the same way as Labour’s 1992 leader. It makes sense for Miliband and Balls to change track two years before the election rather than leave it any later and risk their credibility sinking even lower. They have two years to get the party, then the people, on board…

Thursday, May 30, 2013

INFOGRAPHIC: Ed v Gordon

Ouch, you can see why Andy Coulson in GQ describes Prime Minister Ed as “a fate worse than Gordon.”

Numbers via Times/YouGov.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Poll: UKIP Heading For 2014 Victory

David Ruffley has been bursting through his shirt to warn Dave he could face a leadership challenge if he doesn’t deal with UKIP in time for next year’s Euro elections, so these numbers won’t make for happy post-holiday reading for the PM. An OpenEurope/ComRes poll has UKIP topping the bill on 27% among those certain to vote in 2014, and still breaking the 20 point mark for the general election. The key number for Dave: two-fifths of Conservative voters from 2010 would vote UKIP in a European election if it were held tomorrow…

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Voters Trash Clegg’s Failed Fairness Mantra

Clegg’s strategy in coalition has been to promote the LibDems as the party of fairness. Apparently with no sense of irony, he has attacked the Tories for failing to “adopt the politics of fairness”, told Martha Kearney he is the “voice of fairness” in government, and dreamt up that catchy-as-it-is-believable slogan “Building a fairer Britain”. Unfortunately for Nick, repeating something over and over doesn’t mean the public will believe him.

A YouGov poll out this morning finds only 6% think Clegg would be the most effective leader at making Britain a fairer place. Nearly double that, 11%, choose Nigel Farage as the fairest party leader. There’s bad news for Ed too, he comes second to Dave by 21% to 19%. Topping the poll is public apathy: 29% said no leader could deliver a fairer society. People might disagree about what fairness means, but nearly everyone agrees Clegg won’t deliver it…

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Even Labour Supporters are Hardening on Hand Outs

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation have actually put out something interesting for a change. Over the last thirty years, Labour supporters’ attitudes to welfare have hardened considerably. In the late eighties 41% believed social injustice was the main cause of poverty, now that figure is just 27%. This can be explained in part by the number that blame laziness amongst those on benefits, up from 13% to 22%. 31% of Labour backers see welfare recipients as undeserving, compared to just 21% thirty years ago. The biggest jump: 46% now believe the welfare state encourages dependency, up from just 16% in 1987. You can see how attitudes have changed among Labour supporters by clicking on the interactive chart above. Ed may want to lead the party of welfare, but his voters are not with him.


Seen Elsewhere

Guardian April Fools Apology | Press Gazette
Jenni Russell and Her Child’s Godfather, Ed Miliband | Breitbart
Labour’s Left and Right are Growing Restive | Staggers
Corrupt, Incompetent UN Has No Right to Lecture Us | Dan Hannan
Mirror’s Lazy Lie | Guardian
Hungary’s Heir to Thatcher | Conservative Woman
Farage and Salmond Both Want Outopia | David Aaronovitch
More Missing UKIP Money | Times
Church Should Fight Evil of Welfare Dependency | Stephen Glover
1 in 16 Pick Up Infections in Filthy NHS Hospitals | Mail
Let’s Get Evangelical | David Cameron


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Guido-hot-button (1) Guido-hot-button (1)


Rod Liddle on the loony UN sexism special rapporteur:

“There is more sexism in Britain than in any other country in the world, according to a mad woman who has been sent here by the United Nations.

Rashida Manjoo is a part-time professor of law at Cape Town University in the totally non-sexist country of South Africa (otherwise known as Rape Capital Of The World).

Mrs Magoo has been wandering around with her notebook and is appalled by the sexist “boys’ club” culture here, apparently.

I don’t doubt we still have sexism in the UK. But is it worse than in, say, Saudi Arabia, d’you think, honey-lamb? Or about 175 other countries? Get a grip, you doolally old bat.”



orkneylad says:

What’s he been doing FFS, mining bitcoins?


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