The old guard laughed when newbie pollsters Survation started showing an ascendancy pattern for the UKIP vote last year, yet today a third pollster has UKIP at around 20% for the Euro elections and now they are giving Nick Clegg a kicking on the home front too. Ipsos Mori report that the party are beating the LibDems into fourth place on general election voting intentions. There is hardly cause for celebration for Ed Miliband either - 75% of Tories are satisfied with Cameron but just 53% of Labour supporters are happy with their leader. Bad news all round for the pro-EU parties.
Pollster Andrew Hawkins warns Cameron…
“…the party loses more votes than it gains as a result of the policy, and that former Conservative voters are especially less likely to return to the fold.’
Well this one has got people chatting this afternoon. Guido’s favourite figure is that more people would rather not go for a drink with either Miliband or Cameron, but the other figures are rather intriguing.
Labour are ahead, but not thanks to their leader.
Tories are behind, but it could be a lot worse without Dave.
The recent plots have been on the wrong team…
UPDATE: Searching for a different result?
Survation is the only pollster that prompts by party name (like on the ballot paper), they are once again showing UKIP on 12% ahead of the LibDems on 10%.
The division of the right-of-centre vote in a first past the post system is going to prove fatal for the Tories. Electoral logic will eventually force a new accomodation with UKIP…
Boris is positively out-polling the PM nationally…
After Occupy tramp Bryn Phillips lied to get on the ballot at the upcoming City of London by-election, you would think he would try to stay on the right side of the law. This rioter, who was recently found guilty of violent disorder and burglary, is hilariously trying to stand on a moral platform.
He’s not too hot on the law though and failed to declare his conviction on his ballot submission.
Guido would now like to introduce him to some new legislation - Section 66 of the 1983 Representation of the People Act. That’s the bit that that forbids “any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election” being made before polls close.
So perhaps bonkers Bryn could explain his latest Twitter outpouring:
1/2 Postal votes are out in force for me already, messages of support from disgruntled bankers are flooding in…—
Bryn Phillips (@bryn__phillips) July 24, 2012
Labour MP Kerry McCarthy was cautioned for an identical crime during the last election. Either Bryn is lying, and he has not seen the postal votes, or he has broken the law. Which is it?
It’s Kill Osborne season. Trevor Kavanagh in the Sun keeps up the pressure after another terrible round of Sunday’s for the Chancellor:
“It is Mr Osborne, not Nick Clegg’s Lib Dem rabble, who is to blame for the Government’s collapse in public esteem… In a few short weeks, Mr Osborne has shredded his reputation and turned the Coalition into a lame duck administration. It takes a special talent to cast Mr Balls on the right side of an economic argument but Mr Osborne somehow managed to do so. If the Prime Minister cannot grasp this nettle, he is finished.”
It’s amazing who you bump into on trains. Guido was chatting with this morning a loyal Cameroon source, familiar with Andrew Cooper’s polling numbers, who confirmed the speculation that Osborne is the biggest drag on the ticket in Downing Street’s private polling. Since the budget, George’s already shaky polling figures have apparently dropped through the floor and are showing no sign of recovery.
Guido understands that the reshuffle was planned for the week after the senior government appearances at Leveson. It would have been a nice distraction if things had gone disastrously. However given that the outcome of Cameron evidence was seen as an embarrassment rather than full on danger, with his tactician’s hat on, Osborne convinced Dave to delay. A month ago he would have been safe in his job, but 5 September is a very long way away…
How Mervyn King Lost Bank Battle War | WSJ
BBC Corporation Tax Horror Story | IEA
Sally Bercow Judgement in Full | Mr Justice Tugendhat
Commies Blame Capitalism For Terror Attack | The Commentator
Lord Black v Press Regulation | Guardian
Osborne’s Complacency | FT
DWP’s Welfare Failings | Isabel Hardman
Get Used to Coalitions | David Aaronovitch
Woolwich a Showcase in the Banality of Evil | Fraser Nelson
The Enemy Within | Max Hastings
Muslim Led Military-Style Free School Needed | Toby Young
Ed Balls stretches credulity by claiming he isn’t ambitious…
“I would love to be part of Ed’s Labour government but what I do next for me is not an all-consuming passion. I’m more bothered, in a personal sense, about getting to grade 8 piano by the time I’m 50.”
Ned Flanders – Clegg
Lisa Simpson – Natalie Bennett
Milhouse – Hilary Benn
Martin Prince – Andy Burnham
Edna Krabappel – Luciana Berger
Crazy Cat Lady – Glenda jackson
Comic book guy – John Prescott
Carl – Chucka
Lenny – Philip Hammond
Willie – Eric joyce
Poochie – Gordon Brown
Reverend Lovejoy – Tony Blair