Andrew Cooper’s Misplaced Arrogance

Andrew Cooper is the PM’s pollster and he is fanatically pro-EU. His Twitter feed is something to behold.

Yes, Guido remembers that it was Andrew Cooper’s polling firm Populus which built a super-clever model of all the polling data for the general election and concluded there was just a 0.5% of a Tory majority. This may have had something to do with his pique at being kicked off the Tory campaign by Lynton Crosby…

Half the country is stupid…

Swing to Status Quo Scenario

Leavers are optimistic, Brexiteering Tory MPs really do believe they can do it, yet Remainers still think they’ll win. Neck and neck polls are giving both sides hope. Peter Kellner – a Europhile Labour supporting pollster  – has written a piece which tugs at a nagging doubt for Guido. The tendency of referendums in Britain to swing towards the status quo in the final days…

referendum-swings

Kellner explains away the exception, the 1997 Scottish referendum in favour of devolution as a mechanism for ratifying a national consensus, not a means of resolving a major national dispute. Hmmm… 

Kellner doesn’t look at international referendums that have favoured change: gay marriage in Ireland, legalising marijuana in various US states. In these cases he could argue that they were again ratifying a consensus. There is obviously no UK consensus on the merits of the EU. There is however a near national consensus on the need to control immigration…

Campaign Report: 17 Days to Go

nathalie bennett bse bus

Leave message: Stay and we’ll be paying for the Eurozone’s failure.

Remain message: Cameron, Farron, Harman and Bennett united: Leave must make plans clear.

Cut through: Polls changing drastically in Leave’s favour.

Leave social media count: 456,041 likes, 51,907 followers.

Remain social media count: 456,247 likes, 34,318 followers.

Odds: Remain 4/9, Leave between 11/5

Latest poll: Remain 43% (-1), Leave 48% (+1) (ICM, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51%, Leave 49%.

Owen Jones’ Lexit U-Turn

Owen Jones Lexit

Owen Jones is a fully signed-up Remainer these days. He has joined John McDonnell’s Another Europe is Possible group in calling for a “radical In vote” and spent today lamenting polls putting Leave ahead. Yet only a year ago Owen was a self-proclaimed Lexiteer, making the left-wing case for Leave. As late as last July, OJ told us:

“The case for Lexit grows ever stronger, and – at the very least – more of us need to start dipping our toes in the water.” 

As for McDonnell, for whom a young Owen was once a bag-carrier, the conversion has been even more dramatic. This explicit call to Leave is from 2014:

Interesting that both Owen and McDonnell are ditching their long-held views on the EU. It’s not just Tories who are selling out to help their careers…

Remainer Mercer Ignores Constituents

MERCER poll

To the surprise of absolutely no-one, Tory MP Johnny Mercer finally came out for Remain yesterday. This morning he writes for ConHome calling Farage “pathetic“. What Johnny doesn’t mention is that just a few weeks ago, when he was supposedly still making up his mind, he polled his constituents about how they would be voting. Over 400 responded, with 74.1% of Plymouth Moor View residents backing Leave. Just 19.2% supported Remain. Mercer won his seat by 1,000 votes in 2015, with UKIP coming third with over 9,000 votes. Ammo for them in 2020…

Leave Lead By 5 Points With ICM

New ICM online poll out this morning:

Leave: 48% (+1)

Remain: 43% (-1)

Don’t Know: 9%

Without Don’t Knows:

Leave: 53%

Remain: 47%

All three polls out today have Leave in front…

Two New Polls Put Leave Ahead

POLLS

Leave are ahead for the first time with YouGov/GMB, and are also beating Remain with TNS. The YouGov poll finds immigration is the key issue for voters. 17 days to go – Brexit has the big mo…

+ + + ICM SHOWS LEAVE AHEAD PHONE & ONLINE + + +

gbp

ICM has Leave on 45% versus 42% for Remain, with 13% saying don’t know. Excluding “don’t knows” that’s 52% for Brexit, against 48% for Remain.

Online ICM has 47% for Leave, and 44% Remain, with 9% saying they don’t know. Again that is  52% to 48% in favour of Leaving excluding don’t knows.

ORB for The Telegraph this morning had it:

orb-chart

Squeaky bum time in Downing Street…

Leave Poll Surge as Migrant Crisis Cuts Through

migrants

These are all front page headlines from the last seven days. They’re from Remain-backing papers as well as Leave. With three weeks to go immigration is the main story in town – whether it’s net migration rising to 330,000 or the 18 Albanians rescued off the Kent coast.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

2% Think Osborne “Natural Leader”

George Osborne Boom and Bust

Osborne’s meteoric fall continues, with a YouGov poll for the Times reporting that just 2% of voters think he’s a “natural leader”. Only 11% say he would be up to the PM’s job, with that number plunging to just 7% among Brexit supporters. […] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Momentum Rejoice! Only 65% Think Corbyn Not Ready to be PM

corbyn READY TO BE PM

Corbyn has always had a popularity problem within Labour. He was less popular than both Gordon and Red Ed when he took over in September, and scored an identical net dislike for both himself and his party as Tony Blair was quitting in 2007. […] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

71% of Scots Think Corbyn’s a Disaster

YouGov Regional Poll Labour

YouGov’s poll of Labour members produced a miserable top-line figure for ardent Corbynistas, showing just 18% of members thought the left-wing leader had done well in the recent round of local and PCC elections. Although that’s not so bad considering he’s the first opposition leader to have lost local seats in over 30 years…

Looking at the regional breakdown, a much bigger problem for Corbyn emerges.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Gove Tops ConHome Poll Again

Gove extends his lead as ConHome readers’ favourite for next Tory leader, rising another five points this month. May also had a good month, though Boris slipped a couple of points and Osborne dropped another percentage point to just 8%. Will certainly add fuel to those Gove for deputy PM rumours…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

YouGov: Majority Know Celebrity Threesome Identity

The decision on whether the celebrity threesome injunction is to be lifted will be announced at 12:30pm. This morning YouGov found 55% of the 2,000 plus polled now know the identities of those involved. Not to mention anyone and everyone in the US, Canada, Scotland, Sweden and China.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Farage, Like Marmite, is Popular

farage

Nigel Farage is under pressure internally from carping ‘Kippers and Farage-sceptic fellow Brexiteers of the Tory persuasion. UKIP are reminding everyone that although he may be like Marmite, repelling as many as he attracts, he is still more popular than any other politician bar Boris.[…] Read the rest

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Osborne’s Post-Budget Poll Plunge

Osborne dissatisfaction March

Yet more evidence of decline – the Chancellor’s personal ratings plunge with Ipsos Mori, the Budget gets its worst rating since 2010. He’s now less popular than he was after the Omnishambles Budget. The Osborne effect is so toxic that Corbyn’s satisfaction score even overtakes Cameron’s…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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