New polling from YouGov has asked Britons for their opinions on how 2020 has been so far. Despite presuming it’d be a pretty one-sided response, less than half the public – the magic 48% – think this year is going badly. Including don’t knows, 52% of the keep-calm-and-carry-on British public say 2020 has been great, good or OK. Guido has questions for the 2%…

According to YouGov polling 20% of voters for the Conservative and Unionist Party would be pleased to see Scotland independent and 29% would not be bothered if it happened. A total of 49% are unfazed by the prospect of Scottish independence. Only a minority of Tory voters (48%) would be upset. That means Tories are more sympathetic to Scottish independence than the average voter. When asked how they would feel about Scotland leaving, only 15% of English people and 16% of Welsh people saying they would be pleased to see the back of Scotland.

Ironically, given the party leadership’s staunch pro-union stance, it is Tory voters who are the most likely to say they would be pleased for Scotland to break away (apart from SNP voters of course). 59% of Labour voters support the union…

YouGov data tables.

In unsettling news for the Government, despite the Tories maintaining a lead in voting intentions, the latest YouGov poll puts Sir Keir ahead of Boris on the crucial ‘Best PM’ question for the first time. Willing to upset the hard left, write in the Mail on Sunday, and brush over his party’s own failings in Wales, Sir Keir is a much more formidable opponent than the Tories have faced in years…

A new Scottish YouGov poll released last night will make glum reading for unionists. The SNP are set to achieve a stonking 57% in the constituency vote for the Holyrood elections, as well as 47% on the proportional regional list vote. Taken together, this would give the party 74 seats out of 129. No party has ever before won more than 69 seats in the parliament…

The Scottish Tory vote share stands at 20% and 21% for constituencies and lists respectively, while Scottish Labour trails at just 14% in both. Scottish Labour leader and Corbynite relic Richard Leonard had the worst approval rating of any leader, standing at -27%. With Labour’s Scotland problem getting worse, not better, Guido is surprised Sir Keir hasn’t spent more time north of the border…

In line with other recent polls, YouGov found support for Scottish independence to stand at at 53%, compared to 47% for the Union. Westminster, take note.

It always seemed paradoxical to Guido that UKIP opposed Scottish independence, all the arguments about supra-nationalism they applied to Brussels rang true for Westminster from Edinburgh. The historical baggage of the Conservative & Unionist Party was more understandable, though increasingly contradicted by the observed attitude of party activists who, unlike the party leadership, are more likely to see Scotland and Wales as a burden on English (Tory) taxpayers. Emotional arguments don’t play so well with practical-minded voters.

The media frequently tells us this is a “Vote Leave” government, so Guido has dug into a recent June 2020 YouGov poll of English voters and their attitude to independence for England, which effectively translates into their attitude to Scottish and Welsh independence, given they won’t have a vote in another Scottish referendum. Their attitudes are telling…

Of those who expressed a view, over 55% of English Leave voters supported an English exit from the union, that is striking. When it came to Tory voters, the majority of Conservative & Unionist Party voters do still support the union, by a smaller margin. It is still something extraordinary for nearly half the party’s voters to reject the stance towards the union expressed in the party’s very name. The trend suggests that the English Conservative Party will soon have to consider dropping “unionist” from their name if they want to reflect the modern views of the party’s membership.

If Scotland had to stand on its own fiscal feet it would soon discover that having a Sovietised economy, with a dominant massive public sector, is just not sustainable.  An independent Scotland would mean that English taxpayers would no longer have to subsidise their public sector… 

Total sample size was 1,384 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 17th – 18th June 2020. Full data tables [PDF]

For those of you waiting for the latest Survation, Tories will be pleased in the circumstances to add another 3 points to their lead, giving them an 8 point margin over Labour. Boris will be pleased to see he has 7 point margin over Starmer in the “Who Would Make the Best Prime Minister” stakes, less pleased that his public approval rating is neutral whereas Starmer’s is a healthy plus 9. The public is warming to Starmer slightly, still not keen on his party though. Starmer’s left-wing enemies are still demanding to know when the 20-point lead Tony Blair forecast will appear…