LEAVE: 53% (+10)
REMAIN: 47% (-10)
HUGE swing from last month…
Other top lines via the Standard:
- only 17% believe Osborne’s £4,300 figure
- half believe Vote Leave’s £350 million figure
- immigration is the key issue, cited by one in three
After yesterday’s gold standard ICM online and phone polls showing a robust Leave lead, TNS have released new figures showing 47% for Out and 40% for In. This means Leave are now ahead seven points – higher than any poll since YouGov’s nine point lead for Out in February. Remain have won just one poll in the last seven days…
The Sun backs Brexit:
“The EU cannot reform.
Remain has conducted a deceitful campaign. It has been nasty, cynical, personally abusive and beneath the dignity of Britain.
Our country has a glorious history.
This is our chance to make Britain even greater, to recapture our democracy, to preserve the values and culture we are rightly proud of.
A VOTE FOR LEAVE IS A VOTE FOR A BETTER BRITAIN.”
Read their editorial in full here…
Meanwhile Leave are 7 points ahead with YouGov:
Leave: 46% (+3)
Remain: 39% (-3)
Don’t Know: 11% (nc)
Would Not Vote: 4% (nc)
Huge day for Leave…
Andrew Cooper is the PM’s pollster and he is fanatically pro-EU. His Twitter feed is something to behold.
Yes, Guido remembers that it was Andrew Cooper’s polling firm Populus which built a super-clever model of all the polling data for the general election and concluded there was just a 0.5% of a Tory majority. This may have had something to do with his pique at being kicked off the Tory campaign by Lynton Crosby…
Half the country is stupid…
Leavers are optimistic, Brexiteering Tory MPs really do believe they can do it, yet Remainers still think they’ll win. Neck and neck polls are giving both sides hope. Peter Kellner – a Europhile Labour supporting pollster – has written a piece which tugs at a nagging doubt for Guido. The tendency of referendums in Britain to swing towards the status quo in the final days…
Kellner explains away the exception, the 1997 Scottish referendum in favour of devolution as a mechanism for ratifying a national consensus, not a means of resolving a major national dispute. Hmmm…
Kellner doesn’t look at international referendums that have favoured change: gay marriage in Ireland, legalising marijuana in various US states. In these cases he could argue that they were again ratifying a consensus. There is obviously no UK consensus on the merits of the EU. There is however a near national consensus on the need to control immigration…
Leave message: Stay and we’ll be paying for the Eurozone’s failure.
Remain message: Cameron, Farron, Harman and Bennett united: Leave must make plans clear.
Cut through: Polls changing drastically in Leave’s favour.
Odds: Remain 4/9, Leave between 11/5
Latest poll: Remain 43% (-1), Leave 48% (+1) (ICM, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51%, Leave 49%.
Owen Jones is a fully signed-up Remainer these days. He has joined John McDonnell’s Another Europe is Possible group in calling for a “radical In vote” and spent today lamenting polls putting Leave ahead. Yet only a year ago Owen was a self-proclaimed Lexiteer, making the left-wing case for Leave. As late as last July, OJ told us:
“The case for Lexit grows ever stronger, and – at the very least – more of us need to start dipping our toes in the water.”
As for McDonnell, for whom a young Owen was once a bag-carrier, the conversion has been even more dramatic. This explicit call to Leave is from 2014:
Interesting that both Owen and McDonnell are ditching their long-held views on the EU. It’s not just Tories who are selling out to help their careers…
To the surprise of absolutely no-one, Tory MP Johnny Mercer finally came out for Remain yesterday. This morning he writes for ConHome calling Farage “pathetic“. What Johnny doesn’t mention is that just a few weeks ago, when he was supposedly still making up his mind, he polled his constituents about how they would be voting.[…]
ICM has Leave on 45% versus 42% for Remain, with 13% saying don’t know. Excluding “don’t knows” that’s 52% for Brexit, against 48% for Remain.
Online ICM has 47% for Leave, and 44% Remain, with 9% saying they don’t know. Again that is 52% to 48% in favour of Leaving excluding don’t knows.[…]
YouGov’s poll of Labour members produced a miserable top-line figure for ardent Corbynistas, showing just 18% of members thought the left-wing leader had done well in the recent round of local and PCC elections. Although that’s not so bad considering he’s the first opposition leader to have lost local seats in over 30 years…
Looking at the regional breakdown, a much bigger problem for Corbyn emerges.[…]