Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Ed Smashes His Negative Polling Record, Slumps Below Clegg
Osborne’s Shock Positive Approval Rating Grows

Ed Miliband has hit his lowest ever personal rating by gold-standard pollsters ICM for the Guardian. The Labour leader has dropped 14 points in the last month to -39, below even Nick Clegg, who has a rating of -37. Cameron has lost last month’s positive rating of +2, dropping to -5, though Osborne has seen an increase in his own rating from +5 to +6.

The force is strong in that one.

Monday, June 16, 2014

Ashcroft Focus Groups: Labour “Lazy Slobs Lying on a Sofa”

This afternoon’s latest fluid Ashcroft poll has the Tories on 29%, Labour six points clear on 35%, the LibDems on 8% and UKIP on 15%. More interesting are the results of his focus groups in Thurrock and Halifax, which found the Tories are seen as out of touch but sensible,“aggressively” campaigning to sort out the economy. Music to Lynton Crosby’s ears…

Labour meanwhile are seen as weak, confused and dull, and maintains its image as being summed up by miners and “a lazy slob lying on a sofa, beer in hand”.

What could it be about Ed’s refusal to back any cuts, his anti-benefit reform stance and dependency on the unions that give them that impression…

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Final Survation Newark Poll Predicts Comfortable Tory Win

The polls have closed in Newark and Survation have released the results of their final poll in the constituency:

The results are expected between 2am and 3am…

More Want to Leave the EU Than Stay In

President Obama is in Brussels with Dave to tell us how he thinks the British people should be voting. He says Scots should vote no to freedom and that Britain should stay in the EU, haughtily remarking: “I’m sure the people of Britain will make the right decision”. Unfortunately for the President an ITV/ComRes poll out today shows more Britons want to leave the EU than stay in. 42% would vote to leave if there was a referendum tomorrow and just 40% would vote to stay. Sadly Obama didn’t give us his verdict on whether the people of Newark should go for Robert Jenrick or Roger Helmer today…

Monday, June 2, 2014

Ashcroft Newark Poll Has Tories 15 Points Clear

Lord Ashcroft reports:

“A by-election two weeks after the European election means that Newark’s electors have enjoyed the prolonged attention of the parties, a privilege for which they must surely be grateful. The evidence from my poll is that the Tories have had the better of an intense ground war and have by no means taken the seat for granted. More than nine out of ten voters say they have heard from the Conservatives locally, including 81 per cent who have had literature through the door; nearly half have received personally addressed mail. Eight in ten say they have heard from UKIP; the party is reported to be slightly more active than Labour in all elements of the local campaign.

The poll was conducted in the week before polling day, and just under a fifth of voters say they may yet change their mind. Despite this, it looks clear that the next MP for Newark will be Robert Jenrick.”

The full data is here.

It’s theirs to lose…

Another Troublesome Peer Leaks Polling Data to Troll Leader

Lord Oakeshott jumped before he was pushed last week, after commissioning unsolicited bad news polling for the  LibDems, but has he set a precedent? Nick Clegg said he thought it ‘totally unacceptable’ that a ‘senior member of the party’ was ‘spending time and money to undermine the fortunes of the party’ and that ‘appropriate measures’ would be taken. Will Dave be so bold in standing up to Tory peer Lord Ashcroft? The billionaire former party donor has been commissioning unhelpful polls left right and centre that suggest a comfortable Labour majority in 2015.

Douglas Alexander MP, Labour’s General Election Strategy, commenting on Ashcroft’s last poll in marginal seats, said gratefully: “Lord Ashcroft’s poll confirms that we are making real progress in seats where we need to do well and that Labour can win next year’s General Election.”

There is an Ashcroft Newark poll out at 4pm…

What ‘appropriate measures’ will the PM be taking with his own troublesome peer?

ConservativeHome Readers Increasingly Favour UKIP Pact

ch-ukip-pact

ConservativeHome’s post Euro elections reader survey shows that the reality of the national vote result was not lost on the site’s readership. Support* for a blue-purple pact has risen…

*Usual caveats about self-selecting samples.

Friday, May 30, 2014

Survey Says…

Ipsos-MORI-graphic

According to an Ipsos Mori poll the Guido Fawkes Blog is the publication most read by MPs either online or in print. In case you were wondering it wasn’t commissioned by our advertising representatives MessageSpace. According to the research no other blog, political news website or newspaper is read by more MPs than Guido. We’re immensely proud, though not too surprised.

We don’t tend to do many interviews, waffling wordy comment pieces or publish rehashed press releases.  We get political stories quicker than most of our rivals, we’re more fun and we combine hard news with tittle-tattle, high brow and low brow into a hopefully compelling product. It is a formula that has seen us consistently top reader satisfaction surveys for a decade. From the Prime Minister down to A-Level politics students, we know that staying in touch with what our readers want is why we’re #1. You’re either in front of Guido, or you’re behind…

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Continuity Clegg: Winning Here Graph

The Clegg fans over LibDemVoice have launched a delayed rebuttal operation, releasing a poll showing 54% of 992 members want him to stay and 39% want him to stand down. Always one for statistical excellence, Guido brings you the findings in a format LibDem HQ would be proud of:

Nothing to worry about…

UPDATE: Vince has broken cover slam Oakeshott for commissioning the ICM poll. He calls it inexcusable.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.


Seen Elsewhere

Cops Seized Journalist’s Phone to Out Whistleblower | Press Gazette
Chuka’s £2,500 Tax Avoidance Donation | Times
Another BBC Stitch Up? | David Keighley
Divided, Pessimistic Tories Expect Defeat | Alex Wickham
Labour Suspends Rotherham Council Members | Sky
PM Used Terror Crisis to Deflect From Carswell | Rachel Sylvester
Scotland Surges for Freedom | Times
Carswell Left Because Cam Can’t Be Trusted on Reform | ConHome
Top 100 Most UKIP-Friendly Tory Seats | ConHome
Bercow ‘Wounded’ | Speccie
This Goes Further Than Rotherham | Simon Danczuk


VOTER-RECALL
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George Osborne rejects the Ice Bucket Challenge from Ed Balls:

“I’d rather pay the money to charity and pour cold water on his policies.”



Owen Jones says:

We also need Zil lanes.


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