Monday, June 2, 2014

Ashcroft Newark Poll Has Tories 15 Points Clear

Lord Ashcroft reports:

“A by-election two weeks after the European election means that Newark’s electors have enjoyed the prolonged attention of the parties, a privilege for which they must surely be grateful. The evidence from my poll is that the Tories have had the better of an intense ground war and have by no means taken the seat for granted. More than nine out of ten voters say they have heard from the Conservatives locally, including 81 per cent who have had literature through the door; nearly half have received personally addressed mail. Eight in ten say they have heard from UKIP; the party is reported to be slightly more active than Labour in all elements of the local campaign.

The poll was conducted in the week before polling day, and just under a fifth of voters say they may yet change their mind. Despite this, it looks clear that the next MP for Newark will be Robert Jenrick.”

The full data is here.

It’s theirs to lose…

Another Troublesome Peer Leaks Polling Data to Troll Leader

Lord Oakeshott jumped before he was pushed last week, after commissioning unsolicited bad news polling for the  LibDems, but has he set a precedent? Nick Clegg said he thought it ‘totally unacceptable’ that a ‘senior member of the party’ was ‘spending time and money to undermine the fortunes of the party’ and that ‘appropriate measures’ would be taken. Will Dave be so bold in standing up to Tory peer Lord Ashcroft? The billionaire former party donor has been commissioning unhelpful polls left right and centre that suggest a comfortable Labour majority in 2015.

Douglas Alexander MP, Labour’s General Election Strategy, commenting on Ashcroft’s last poll in marginal seats, said gratefully: “Lord Ashcroft’s poll confirms that we are making real progress in seats where we need to do well and that Labour can win next year’s General Election.”

There is an Ashcroft Newark poll out at 4pm…

What ‘appropriate measures’ will the PM be taking with his own troublesome peer?

ConservativeHome Readers Increasingly Favour UKIP Pact

ch-ukip-pact

ConservativeHome’s post Euro elections reader survey shows that the reality of the national vote result was not lost on the site’s readership. Support* for a blue-purple pact has risen…

*Usual caveats about self-selecting samples.

Friday, May 30, 2014

Survey Says…

Ipsos-MORI-graphic

According to an Ipsos Mori poll the Guido Fawkes Blog is the publication most read by MPs either online or in print. In case you were wondering it wasn’t commissioned by our advertising representatives MessageSpace. According to the research no other blog, political news website or newspaper is read by more MPs than Guido. We’re immensely proud, though not too surprised.

We don’t tend to do many interviews, waffling wordy comment pieces or publish rehashed press releases.  We get political stories quicker than most of our rivals, we’re more fun and we combine hard news with tittle-tattle, high brow and low brow into a hopefully compelling product. It is a formula that has seen us consistently top reader satisfaction surveys for a decade. From the Prime Minister down to A-Level politics students, we know that staying in touch with what our readers want is why we’re #1. You’re either in front of Guido, or you’re behind…

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Continuity Clegg: Winning Here Graph

The Clegg fans over LibDemVoice have launched a delayed rebuttal operation, releasing a poll showing 54% of 992 members want him to stay and 39% want him to stand down. Always one for statistical excellence, Guido brings you the findings in a format LibDem HQ would be proud of:

Nothing to worry about…

UPDATE: Vince has broken cover slam Oakeshott for commissioning the ICM poll. He calls it inexcusable.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Final Polls Put UKIP in First

Sun/YouGov:

UKIP: 27%

Lab: 26%

Con: 22%

Green: 10%

LD: 9%

Mail/Opinium:

UKIP: 32%

Lab: 25%

Con: 21%

Green: 6%

LD: 6%

They’re predicting an earthquake…

Monday, May 19, 2014

YouGov: Public Rate Only Nigel Farage Positively

yougov approval ratings

YouGov’s fieldwork was done on Thursday and Friday, so only partially covering the recent furore. Even so Nigel is way ahead of the other political leaders in terms of public approval. That is why they are all ganging up on him…

 

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Round-Up of Differing ComRes & ICM Poll Results


ComRes
UKIP 35% (+1), Labour 24%, Con 20% (-2), Green 7% (+2), LibDem 6% (-2)

ICM
Labour 29% (-1), Con 26% (+4), UKIP 25% (-2) LibDem 7%

survey-round-up

This graph from Simon Lock captures the latest polls in an easy to understand format.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

The Balls Offensive

With Ed Balls dissing Douglas Alexander on LBC last night, this morning his wife Yvette Cooper has launched another broadside against the embattled election coordinator. As Guido reported earlier in the week, Alexander is under attack internally from the likes of Michael Dugher for not “taking the fight to UKIP”, and today that row has spilled over to the pages of the Mirror:

“Like their plans for NHS charges or millionaire tax cuts, UKIP’s Thatcherite policies are worse than David Cameron’s. Pulling out of Europe won’t help. That risks jobs. Better to get EU reforms – including better controls when countries join.

We mustn’t ignore UKIP … nor must we imitate them – we are challenging all the other parties because they have no answers to help working people.”

Finally it appears at least one faction in Labour has noticed the party ahead of them in the EU polling rather than being obsessed by the one languishing in last place. Looks a lot like a coordinated Balls camp shift…


Seen Elsewhere

Why Do Feminists Oppose Stay-at-Home Mothers? | Laura Perrins
Chris Cook’s “Excellent Journalism” | Iain Dale
The Deficit Hasn’t Gone Away | Tim Montgomerie
Doctors Against Burnham | Mail
Privatisation is Good for the NHS | John McTernan
Keep Juncker’s Hands Off the City | Allister Heath
Britain’s New Enemies: Immigrants & Capitalists | FT
Today’s 1914 Parallels | Jeremy Warner
David Ward’s Holocaust Denier Friends | Harry's Place
Grayling: Bercow Faces Questions | Sun
Paul Flynn Could Learn a Lot From a Trip to Israel | Breitbart


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Knifed former civil service chief Bob Kerslake on his recent troubles:

“Many thks for kind wishes following back opn. Incision measured 16cm. A pretty big knife in the back! Photos on request.”



TJ says:

And i’ve noticed that 100% of Guido Fawkes staff are men. Looks like Guido has a woman problem. Or is it an hypocrisy problem?


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