Leave 6 Points Ahead With Ipsos Mori

bad-news

LEAVE: 53% (+10)

REMAIN: 47% (-10)

HUGE swing from last month…

Other top lines via the Standard:

  • only 17% believe Osborne’s £4,300 figure
  • half believe Vote Leave’s £350 million figure
  • immigration is the key issue, cited by one in three

ComRes: Remain Lead Crumbles

bad-newsLeave: 45% (+4)

Remain: 46% (-6)

Remain’s 11 point lead last month disappears…

Via The Sun

TNS: Leave 7 Points Ahead

LEAVE LEAD

After yesterday’s gold standard ICM online and phone polls showing a robust Leave lead, TNS have released new figures showing 47% for Out and 40% for In. This means Leave are now ahead seven points – higher than any poll since YouGov’s nine point lead for Out in February. Remain have won just one poll in the last seven days…

This poll was embargoed til 6pm but the embargo was busted by the Times and Britain Elects.

The Sun Comes Out For Brexit

The Sun backs Brexit:

“The EU cannot reform.

Remain has conducted a deceitful campaign. It has been nasty, cynical, personally abusive and beneath the dignity of Britain.

Our country has a glorious history.

This is our chance to make Britain even greater, to recapture our democracy, to preserve the values and culture we are rightly proud of.

A VOTE FOR LEAVE IS A VOTE FOR A BETTER BRITAIN.”

Read their editorial in full here

Meanwhile Leave are 7 points ahead with YouGov:

Leave: 46% (+3)

Remain: 39% (-3)

Don’t Know: 11% (nc)

Would Not Vote: 4% (nc)

Huge day for Leave…

Andrew Cooper’s Misplaced Arrogance

Andrew Cooper is the PM’s pollster and he is fanatically pro-EU. His Twitter feed is something to behold.

Yes, Guido remembers that it was Andrew Cooper’s polling firm Populus which built a super-clever model of all the polling data for the general election and concluded there was just a 0.5% of a Tory majority. This may have had something to do with his pique at being kicked off the Tory campaign by Lynton Crosby…

Half the country is stupid…

Swing to Status Quo Scenario

Leavers are optimistic, Brexiteering Tory MPs really do believe they can do it, yet Remainers still think they’ll win. Neck and neck polls are giving both sides hope. Peter Kellner – a Europhile Labour supporting pollster  – has written a piece which tugs at a nagging doubt for Guido. The tendency of referendums in Britain to swing towards the status quo in the final days…

referendum-swings

Kellner explains away the exception, the 1997 Scottish referendum in favour of devolution as a mechanism for ratifying a national consensus, not a means of resolving a major national dispute. Hmmm… 

Kellner doesn’t look at international referendums that have favoured change: gay marriage in Ireland, legalising marijuana in various US states. In these cases he could argue that they were again ratifying a consensus. There is obviously no UK consensus on the merits of the EU. There is however a near national consensus on the need to control immigration…

Campaign Report: 17 Days to Go

nathalie bennett bse bus

Leave message: Stay and we’ll be paying for the Eurozone’s failure.

Remain message: Cameron, Farron, Harman and Bennett united: Leave must make plans clear.

Cut through: Polls changing drastically in Leave’s favour.

Leave social media count: 456,041 likes, 51,907 followers.

Remain social media count: 456,247 likes, 34,318 followers.

Odds: Remain 4/9, Leave between 11/5

Latest poll: Remain 43% (-1), Leave 48% (+1) (ICM, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51%, Leave 49%.

Owen Jones’ Lexit U-Turn

Owen Jones Lexit

Owen Jones is a fully signed-up Remainer these days. He has joined John McDonnell’s Another Europe is Possible group in calling for a “radical In vote” and spent today lamenting polls putting Leave ahead. Yet only a year ago Owen was a self-proclaimed Lexiteer, making the left-wing case for Leave. As late as last July, OJ told us:

“The case for Lexit grows ever stronger, and – at the very least – more of us need to start dipping our toes in the water.” 

As for McDonnell, for whom a young Owen was once a bag-carrier, the conversion has been even more dramatic. This explicit call to Leave is from 2014:

Interesting that both Owen and McDonnell are ditching their long-held views on the EU. It’s not just Tories who are selling out to help their careers…

Remainer Mercer Ignores Constituents

MERCER poll

To the surprise of absolutely no-one, Tory MP Johnny Mercer finally came out for Remain yesterday. This morning he writes for ConHome calling Farage “pathetic“. What Johnny doesn’t mention is that just a few weeks ago, when he was supposedly still making up his mind, he polled his constituents about how they would be voting.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Leave Lead By 5 Points With ICM

New ICM online poll out this morning:

Leave: 48% (+1)

Remain: 43% (-1)

Don’t Know: 9%

Without Don’t Knows:

Leave: 53%

Remain: 47%

All three polls out today have Leave in front…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Two New Polls Put Leave Ahead

POLLS

Leave are ahead for the first time with YouGov/GMB, and are also beating Remain with TNS. The YouGov poll finds immigration is the key issue for voters. 17 days to go – Brexit has the big mo…[…]

+ READ MORE +

+ + + ICM SHOWS LEAVE AHEAD PHONE & ONLINE + + +

gbp

ICM has Leave on 45% versus 42% for Remain, with 13% saying don’t know. Excluding “don’t knows” that’s 52% for Brexit, against 48% for Remain.

Online ICM has 47% for Leave, and 44% Remain, with 9% saying they don’t know. Again that is  52% to 48% in favour of Leaving excluding don’t knows.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Leave Poll Surge as Migrant Crisis Cuts Through

migrants

These are all front page headlines from the last seven days. They’re from Remain-backing papers as well as Leave. With three weeks to go immigration is the main story in town – whether it’s net migration rising to 330,000 or the 18 Albanians rescued off the Kent coast.[…]

+ READ MORE +

2% Think Osborne “Natural Leader”

George Osborne Boom and Bust

Osborne’s meteoric fall continues, with a YouGov poll for the Times reporting that just 2% of voters think he’s a “natural leader”. Only 11% say he would be up to the PM’s job, with that number plunging to just 7% among Brexit supporters. […]

+ READ MORE +

Momentum Rejoice! Only 65% Think Corbyn Not Ready to be PM

corbyn READY TO BE PM

Corbyn has always had a popularity problem within Labour. He was less popular than both Gordon and Red Ed when he took over in September, and scored an identical net dislike for both himself and his party as Tony Blair was quitting in 2007. […]

+ READ MORE +

71% of Scots Think Corbyn’s a Disaster

YouGov Regional Poll Labour

YouGov’s poll of Labour members produced a miserable top-line figure for ardent Corbynistas, showing just 18% of members thought the left-wing leader had done well in the recent round of local and PCC elections. Although that’s not so bad considering he’s the first opposition leader to have lost local seats in over 30 years…

Looking at the regional breakdown, a much bigger problem for Corbyn emerges.[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Heather Wheeler talks to Burton Mail about her tweet…

“It was a tongue in cheek pop after the European Parliament tweet – it was purely that. I also wanted to congratulate Team GB on a brilliant result and thirdly congratulate the Commonwealth countries who also did very well. Fourth, I am also looking forwarded to establishing new trade agreements. That was it – nothing more. Let’s just enjoy the summer!”

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