Without Boris, May Public’s Most Favoured Tory Leader


A new poll by Survation on behalf of the Constitutional Research Council tells you why people were calling Theresa May “Prime Minister” last night at the Spectator’s summer party. A poll of the general public has May as the only one with a significant positive favourability rating – Boris would have been the other.


What will concentrate Tory MPs minds is the likelihood to vote Tory numbers. May again is the run away winner…

Tory MPs Begin Voting, Gove’s Ratings Crushed


A long-term Gove loyalist told Guido yesterday that he hoped the Chilcot drama tomorrow will provide cover for his preferred candidate’s likely humiliation on Thursday. The miscalculation of the Boricide has been devastating for Gove’s campaign. The polite, good-humoured, fun Gove – popular across the party – is now seen as a ruthless Machiavellian bastard. Gove’s ratings with Tory supporters have plummeted according to ConservativeHome, YouGov has also seen his personal net approval rating with Tory members plummet from +41 to -20 in a week. Unprecedented.

Last night the Johnsons split, with Boris backing Leadsom and Jo backing May after previously backing his brother. Not quite up to the psycho-drama of the Milibands…

Boris and May Neck and Neck


This is the much awaited Conservative Home poll of party members – Boris and T-May are neck and neck. May’s allies are confident she can win with the members. But Boris has the personality and was the hero of Brexit…

Final Campaign Report: Independence Day


Leave message: Vote Leave.

Remain message: Vote Remain.

Cut through: It is voting day.

Leave social media count: 541,694 likes, 68,734 followers.

Remain social media count: 540,681 likes, 48,280 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/4, Leave 7/2


Latest poll: Remain 48%, Leave 42% (Comres , phone), Remain 44%, Leave 45% (Opinium, online), Remain 45%, Leave 45% (YouGov, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 47%, Leave 45%. Two more polls expected today from Ipsos Mori and YouGov…

Leave 2 Points Ahead With YouGov

Remain: 42% (-2)

Leave: 44% (+1)

Don’t Know: 9% (uc)

Would Not Vote: 4% (uc)

Online poll taken between 17-19 June…

Via Sam Coates

UPDATE: ORB on the other hand has Remain leading 49-47.

Leave Move Ahead With Survation Too


LEAVE: 45% (+7)

REMAIN: 42% (-2)

The trend continues, another swing to Leave…

Leave 6 Points Ahead With Ipsos Mori


LEAVE: 53% (+10)

REMAIN: 47% (-10)

HUGE swing from last month…

Other top lines via the Standard:

  • only 17% believe Osborne’s £4,300 figure
  • half believe Vote Leave’s £350 million figure
  • immigration is the key issue, cited by one in three

ComRes: Remain Lead Crumbles

bad-newsLeave: 45% (+4)

Remain: 46% (-6)

Remain’s 11 point lead last month disappears…

Via The Sun

TNS: Leave 7 Points Ahead


After yesterday’s gold standard ICM online and phone polls showing a robust Leave lead, TNS have released new figures showing 47% for Out and 40% for In. This means Leave are now ahead seven points – higher than any poll since YouGov’s nine point lead for Out in February. […]


The Sun Comes Out For Brexit

The Sun backs Brexit:

“The EU cannot reform.

Remain has conducted a deceitful campaign. It has been nasty, cynical, personally abusive and beneath the dignity of Britain.

Our country has a glorious history.

This is our chance to make Britain even greater, to recapture our democracy, to preserve the values and culture we are rightly proud of.



Andrew Cooper’s Misplaced Arrogance

Andrew Cooper is the PM’s pollster and he is fanatically pro-EU. His Twitter feed is something to behold.

Yes, Guido remembers that it was Andrew Cooper’s polling firm Populus which built a super-clever model of all the polling data for the general election and concluded there was just a 0.5% of a Tory majority.[…]


Swing to Status Quo Scenario

Leavers are optimistic, Brexiteering Tory MPs really do believe they can do it, yet Remainers still think they’ll win. Neck and neck polls are giving both sides hope. Peter Kellner – a Europhile Labour supporting pollster  – has written a piece which tugs at a nagging doubt for Guido.[…]


Campaign Report: 17 Days to Go

nathalie bennett bse bus

Leave message: Stay and we’ll be paying for the Eurozone’s failure.

Remain message: Cameron, Farron, Harman and Bennett united: Leave must make plans clear.

Cut through: Polls changing drastically in Leave’s favour.

Leave social media count: 456,041 likes, 51,907 followers.

Remain social media count: 456,247 likes, 34,318 followers.[…]


Owen Jones’ Lexit U-Turn

Owen Jones Lexit

Owen Jones is a fully signed-up Remainer these days. He has joined John McDonnell’s Another Europe is Possible group in calling for a “radical In vote” and spent today lamenting polls putting Leave ahead. Yet only a year ago Owen was a self-proclaimed Lexiteer, making the left-wing case for Leave.[…]


Remainer Mercer Ignores Constituents


To the surprise of absolutely no-one, Tory MP Johnny Mercer finally came out for Remain yesterday. This morning he writes for ConHome calling Farage “pathetic“. What Johnny doesn’t mention is that just a few weeks ago, when he was supposedly still making up his mind, he polled his constituents about how they would be voting.[…]


Leave Lead By 5 Points With ICM

New ICM online poll out this morning:

Leave: 48% (+1)

Remain: 43% (-1)

Don’t Know: 9%

Without Don’t Knows:

Leave: 53%

Remain: 47%

All three polls out today have Leave in front…[…]


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Quote of the Day

Trump jokes about media bias…

“The media is even more biased against me than ever before. You want the proof? Michelle Obama gives a speech and everyone loves it. It’s fantastic. They think she’s absolutely great. My Wife Melania gives the exact same speech! And people get on her case! And I don’t get it! I don’t know Why!”

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