Final Campaign Report: Independence Day

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Leave message: Vote Leave.

Remain message: Vote Remain.

Cut through: It is voting day.

Leave social media count: 541,694 likes, 68,734 followers.

Remain social media count: 540,681 likes, 48,280 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/4, Leave 7/2

pop

Latest poll: Remain 48%, Leave 42% (Comres , phone), Remain 44%, Leave 45% (Opinium, online), Remain 45%, Leave 45% (YouGov, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 47%, Leave 45%. Two more polls expected today from Ipsos Mori and YouGov…

Leave 2 Points Ahead With YouGov

Remain: 42% (-2)

Leave: 44% (+1)

Don’t Know: 9% (uc)

Would Not Vote: 4% (uc)

Online poll taken between 17-19 June…

Via Sam Coates

UPDATE: ORB on the other hand has Remain leading 49-47.

Leave Move Ahead With Survation Too

bad-news

LEAVE: 45% (+7)

REMAIN: 42% (-2)

The trend continues, another swing to Leave…

Leave 6 Points Ahead With Ipsos Mori

bad-news

LEAVE: 53% (+10)

REMAIN: 47% (-10)

HUGE swing from last month…

Other top lines via the Standard:

  • only 17% believe Osborne’s £4,300 figure
  • half believe Vote Leave’s £350 million figure
  • immigration is the key issue, cited by one in three

ComRes: Remain Lead Crumbles

bad-newsLeave: 45% (+4)

Remain: 46% (-6)

Remain’s 11 point lead last month disappears…

Via The Sun

TNS: Leave 7 Points Ahead

LEAVE LEAD

After yesterday’s gold standard ICM online and phone polls showing a robust Leave lead, TNS have released new figures showing 47% for Out and 40% for In. This means Leave are now ahead seven points – higher than any poll since YouGov’s nine point lead for Out in February. Remain have won just one poll in the last seven days…

This poll was embargoed til 6pm but the embargo was busted by the Times and Britain Elects.

The Sun Comes Out For Brexit

The Sun backs Brexit:

“The EU cannot reform.

Remain has conducted a deceitful campaign. It has been nasty, cynical, personally abusive and beneath the dignity of Britain.

Our country has a glorious history.

This is our chance to make Britain even greater, to recapture our democracy, to preserve the values and culture we are rightly proud of.

A VOTE FOR LEAVE IS A VOTE FOR A BETTER BRITAIN.”

Read their editorial in full here

Meanwhile Leave are 7 points ahead with YouGov:

Leave: 46% (+3)

Remain: 39% (-3)

Don’t Know: 11% (nc)

Would Not Vote: 4% (nc)

Huge day for Leave…

Andrew Cooper’s Misplaced Arrogance

Andrew Cooper is the PM’s pollster and he is fanatically pro-EU. His Twitter feed is something to behold.

Yes, Guido remembers that it was Andrew Cooper’s polling firm Populus which built a super-clever model of all the polling data for the general election and concluded there was just a 0.5% of a Tory majority. This may have had something to do with his pique at being kicked off the Tory campaign by Lynton Crosby…

Half the country is stupid…

Swing to Status Quo Scenario

Leavers are optimistic, Brexiteering Tory MPs really do believe they can do it, yet Remainers still think they’ll win. Neck and neck polls are giving both sides hope. Peter Kellner – a Europhile Labour supporting pollster  – has written a piece which tugs at a nagging doubt for Guido.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Campaign Report: 17 Days to Go

nathalie bennett bse bus

Leave message: Stay and we’ll be paying for the Eurozone’s failure.

Remain message: Cameron, Farron, Harman and Bennett united: Leave must make plans clear.

Cut through: Polls changing drastically in Leave’s favour.

Leave social media count: 456,041 likes, 51,907 followers.

Remain social media count: 456,247 likes, 34,318 followers.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Owen Jones’ Lexit U-Turn

Owen Jones Lexit

Owen Jones is a fully signed-up Remainer these days. He has joined John McDonnell’s Another Europe is Possible group in calling for a “radical In vote” and spent today lamenting polls putting Leave ahead. Yet only a year ago Owen was a self-proclaimed Lexiteer, making the left-wing case for Leave.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Remainer Mercer Ignores Constituents

MERCER poll

To the surprise of absolutely no-one, Tory MP Johnny Mercer finally came out for Remain yesterday. This morning he writes for ConHome calling Farage “pathetic“. What Johnny doesn’t mention is that just a few weeks ago, when he was supposedly still making up his mind, he polled his constituents about how they would be voting.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Leave Lead By 5 Points With ICM

New ICM online poll out this morning:

Leave: 48% (+1)

Remain: 43% (-1)

Don’t Know: 9%

Without Don’t Knows:

Leave: 53%

Remain: 47%

All three polls out today have Leave in front…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Two New Polls Put Leave Ahead

POLLS

Leave are ahead for the first time with YouGov/GMB, and are also beating Remain with TNS. The YouGov poll finds immigration is the key issue for voters. 17 days to go – Brexit has the big mo…[…]

+ READ MORE +

+ + + ICM SHOWS LEAVE AHEAD PHONE & ONLINE + + +

gbp

ICM has Leave on 45% versus 42% for Remain, with 13% saying don’t know. Excluding “don’t knows” that’s 52% for Brexit, against 48% for Remain.

Online ICM has 47% for Leave, and 44% Remain, with 9% saying they don’t know. Again that is  52% to 48% in favour of Leaving excluding don’t knows.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Leave Poll Surge as Migrant Crisis Cuts Through

migrants

These are all front page headlines from the last seven days. They’re from Remain-backing papers as well as Leave. With three weeks to go immigration is the main story in town – whether it’s net migration rising to 330,000 or the 18 Albanians rescued off the Kent coast.[…]

+ READ MORE +



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