Continuity Clegg: Winning Here Graph

The Clegg fans over LibDemVoice have launched a delayed rebuttal operation, releasing a poll showing 54% of 992 members want him to stay and 39% want him to stand down. Always one for statistical excellence, Guido brings you the findings in a format LibDem HQ would be proud of:

Nothing to worry about…

UPDATE: Vince has broken cover slam Oakeshott for commissioning the ICM poll. He calls it inexcusable.

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.

Final Polls Put UKIP in First

Sun/YouGov:

UKIP: 27%

Lab: 26%

Con: 22%

Green: 10%

LD: 9%

Mail/Opinium:

UKIP: 32%

Lab: 25%

Con: 21%

Green: 6%

LD: 6%

They’re predicting an earthquake…

YouGov: Public Rate Only Nigel Farage Positively

yougov approval ratings

YouGov’s fieldwork was done on Thursday and Friday, so only partially covering the recent furore. Even so Nigel is way ahead of the other political leaders in terms of public approval. That is why they are all ganging up on him…

 

Round-Up of Differing ComRes & ICM Poll Results


ComRes
UKIP 35% (+1), Labour 24%, Con 20% (-2), Green 7% (+2), LibDem 6% (-2)

ICM
Labour 29% (-1), Con 26% (+4), UKIP 25% (-2) LibDem 7%

survey-round-up

This graph from Simon Lock captures the latest polls in an easy to understand format.

The Balls Offensive

With Ed Balls dissing Douglas Alexander on LBC last night, this morning his wife Yvette Cooper has launched another broadside against the embattled election coordinator. As Guido reported earlier in the week, Alexander is under attack internally from the likes of Michael Dugher for not “taking the fight to UKIP”, and today that row has spilled over to the pages of the Mirror:

“Like their plans for NHS charges or millionaire tax cuts, UKIP’s Thatcherite policies are worse than David Cameron’s. Pulling out of Europe won’t help. That risks jobs. Better to get EU reforms – including better controls when countries join.

We mustn’t ignore UKIP … nor must we imitate them – we are challenging all the other parties because they have no answers to help working people.”

Finally it appears at least one faction in Labour has noticed the party ahead of them in the EU polling rather than being obsessed by the one languishing in last place. Looks a lot like a coordinated Balls camp shift…

Tories Beat UKIP to First Place in Guardian/ICM Euros Poll

Tonight’s Guardian/ICM poll has the Tories in first place for the Euros on 27%, ahead of UKIP on 26%. Labour drop to third on 24%. In their state of the parties poll the Tories are also in first, this time two points clear of Labour, on 33% and 31% respectively. Things get even worse for Miliband in the leadership poll, he has a worse approval rating than Clegg:

UKIP will say this is an outlier for the Euros, though Labour will struggle for an excuse given the Ashcroft polling earlier. If it rings true it is devastating for both parties…

Tories Take Lead in Ashcroft Telephone Polling

The Tories have pulled ahead in a national poll for the first time in two years. The Ashcroft/ConHome telephone poll will cheer CCHQ, though it’s a slender lead. Ashcroft says:

“one thing I should point out is that the Tory lead is somewhat more slender than it looks: if one fewer interviewee had named the Conservatives the party’s score would have been rounded down to 33 per cent rather than up to 34 per cent, and the lead would be down to one point.”

The psychological impact is far more important than the details though. 

YouGov: LibDems Now Behind Greens in Fifth Place


eu--yougov-poll

Among those who tell YouGov that they are certain to vote the LibDems are in fifth place.

Euro-wipeout for the most europhile party…[…]

+ READ MORE +

UKIP 11% Clear Among Those Certain to Vote

UKIP are up 8 points on the beginning of April according to this Euro election poll by ITV/ComRes, now 11 points clear of Labour among those certain to vote. The Tories are down 4 points on just 18%. UKIP’s […]

+ READ MORE +

UKIP Stealing 1 in 5 2010 Labour Voters

Labour are getting spooked by the rise of Red UKIP. Ed’s British guru Lord Glasman used his interview with the Sunday Times to warn middle-class metropolitan Miliband that he is haemorrhaging working class votes to Farage:

“This is a

[…]

+ READ MORE +

UKIP Winning Despite Media Attacks

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

euro-yougov-april-14

YouGov UKIP 31% CON 19%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 9% 

Despite the BBC-led commentariat throwing the kitchen sink at Farage, UKIP are ahead nationally.

Papers don’t like to back losers, expect the commentariat to fracture soon…[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

FT leader on Labour’s “Jewish problem”:

“If Mr Corbyn had serious aspirations to leadership he would tackle this problem head-on. Instead it falls to Labour’s moderates to ask themselves how long they will tolerate this state of affairs. Edmund Burke wrote that “the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing”. Labour’s inaction over anti-Semitism is a stigma that must now be erased by the good people in its ranks.”

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