Latest Polls Have New Highs for UKIP Miliband Win Worse for Tories Than Farage Win


ComRes CON 29% (-3), LAB 35% (=), LDEM 7% (-2), UKIP 20% (+4)

Opinium CON 30% (-2), LAB 36% (+3), LDEM 7% (-3), UKIP 18% (+3)

Ipsos MORI CON 31%( -1), LAB 37% (+2), LDEM 9% (-4), UKIP 15% (+4)

The trend is clear, since the Nick ‘n Nige Euro Debate UKIP have gained at the expense largely of the LibDems and to a lesser extent the Tories. Clegg’s gamble on solidifying the pro-EU vote behind him has been a double-barrelled shot to his own foot. He came off worse and his mis-judgement has cost his party dearly. Guido hears LibDem loyalists now talking of them losing all their MEP’s seats…

Labour are 6% ahead in current polls, though this may not result in them winning the most seats at the Euro elections because when it comes to certainty to vote, UKIP voters are more motivated. CCHQ is dreading a UKIP victory at the polls sending their backbenchers into headless chicken mode. This chart shows why they should fear Labour winning more than UKIP winning:


If Labour get beaten by UKIP in May the pressure on Ed will explode and the divisions in his party will come out into the open. Whereas if Labour wins Ed will have the wind behind him for the general election. UKIP voters are more likely to return to the Tories when it comes to a general election choice between Miliband and Cameron, therefore it will be a far worse portent for the Tories if Labour rather than UKIP wins in May.

Osborne’s Strict Discipline Leaves You Satisfied

As the Times reported on its front page today and Guido pointed out at the time, Osborne had the most obvious motive to want Maria Miller out. Today’s Evening Standard poll taken at the height of the Miller scandal shows Osborne does have still a strong approval rating and as a No. 11 source notes, the Miller distraction was “highly annoying”. Let’s see if that lasts when the cuts actually start…

The Standard / Ipsos Mori poll also has Farage as the only leader with a positive net satisfaction rate. That LibDem spin that the debates were good for Clegg unravels too, he is down 4% since last month…

Two Thirds Say Standards Committee Should Be Abolished

69% of the public agree with Guido that MPs should not be allowed to sit on the committee that judges whether politicians are guilty of fiddling their expenses, according to a Survation poll for Breitbart London. 47% say Maria Miller makes them less likely to vote Tory in 2015, 55% say Dave has handled it badly and the same number say Miller is the worst expenses cheat since 2009. But you keep on fighting for her, Prime Minister…


The Blurrt worm tells the whole story:

Click to enlarge.


What the Public Thinks About Each Party Leader

Big exclusive polling by the Daily Politics today. Who do you most trust to manage the economy? Cameron/Osborne 58%, Miliband/Balls 42% – damning for Labour. A glimmer of hope for Ed that he is seen as less weird than Farage, but a very small silver lining. Here is what the people think:

Click to enlarge.
Via Populus / Daily Politics.

Pundit’s “Budget for the Old” Wins Youth Vote Weird Ed Has Lost Younger Voters Since Budget

If you read the pundits, for example  and , the budget was aimed at older voters to counteract UKIP’s attraction to older more traditional small ‘c’ conservative voters. This is the pundit’s explanation for the poll lead collapse by Labour – now down to just 1%. Pundits claim Osborne has cunningly found granny’s political g-spot.

Has he really? Here is the move post budget in Tory support:


Younger voters up 5%, middle years up 3%, grey-haired support unchanged for the Tories. Whereas for Ed Miliband:


Labour has actually gained older voters perhaps nostalgic for the Kinnock type socialism now offered by Miliband. Weird Ed has lost 6% support from young voters, slightly less from middle age voters and gained 2% more support from aging lefties. Don’t think this is a random poll error – the YouGov results above are based on combining 8 polls to give some good sample sizes. Pundits will no doubt mull this over and recalibrate their musings. Guido has a working hypothesis, backed up by some data: Ed just isn’t cool. He’s an uncool weirdo that younger voters don’t want to be associated with, he has loser written all over him. 51 per cent of 18-24 year olds describe Ed Miliband as weird, the percentage of the Shadow Cabinet that agrees is even higher…

Just 1 in 5 Say Miliband is Prime Minister in Waiting

Last week this blog pointed out that Ed Miliband is hardly coming across as the Prime Minister in waiting, well today the people agree. A Times/Yougov poll has just 19% saying they can see Ed in Number 10, when the same question was asked of Dave in 2008 the number was 49%. Just 26% think Labour is ready for government. As Morten Morland says in the video above, Britain can do better than this…

End of Ed’s “Cost of Living Crisis”

At the beginning of the year Guido predicted that the data would soon show that Ed’s “Cost-of-Living Crisis” was at an end. Today inflation fell to 2%, hitting the Bank of England’s target for the first time in four years and last month saw reported UK wage growth hit a six year high. Wage growth is set to outstrip inflation and with that the end of the rationale for Ed Miliband’s “Cost-of-Living Crisis”. The public are increasingly confident:


All Ed’s slogans turn to dust “too far, too fast” was demonstrated to be wrong and Labour MPs think “One Nation Labour” is vacuous. Back to the drawing board…

Sleepless Night Figures for Labour Stategists

No wonder the Tories are determined to play this as a presidential straight fight.

Via YouGov/Electionista 


Cameron Optimistic for 2014 Pundits Divided for 2015

Dave’s New Year message is essentially “The plan is working… Our recovery is real, but it’s also fragile, and there are more difficult decisions ahead” translation: more cuts coming. Electing the two Eds into government would mean their “economic madness would devastate this country.” The dig at French Hollibandism is well judged, “more borrowing, more spending and more debt” leads to “increasing unemployment, industrial stagnation and enterprise in free fall.[…]


UKIP Polling Up to 30% in Key Swing Seats Donor Buys Page Ad in Telegraph to Rebut Ashcroft

Four more constituency polls from Survation out this morning, bankrolled by UKIP’s millionaire bookie donor Alan Bown. UKIP are up to 28% in Folkestone and Hythe, 30% in Great Yarmouth and 27% in Bognor Regis & Littlehampton. In Crewe and Nantwich they are only on 11%, but the Tories fall behind Labour into second.[…]


GRAPHS: Labour 20 Points Clear in Key Marginals

Two more Survation polls on key marginals out this morning. If the trends in the three constituencies polled so far turn out to be representative, it is pretty clear what the consequences are for the Tories. In Great Grimsby Labour are 20 points clear, as UKIP rise to second place on 22%:

In Dudley North Labour have another 20 point lead, with the Tories down 12% on 2010 and the LibDems on 2%, almost competely wiped out.[…]


UKIP on 30% in South Thanet

Retiring Tory MP Laura Sandys was well-liked in parliament but an arch-Europhile and a dripping wet, so South Thanet always offered potential for Farage. Now she is standing down there is no incumbency factor either, and a seat-specific poll from Survation has the Tories down 20 points in third place on 28%.[…]


GRAPH: Majority Support Removal of Spare Room Subsidy

More evidence to show that Labour are consistently losing the debate on welfare. Even on the spare room subsidy – Labour’s “hated bedroom tax” – the public support the government. 54% say it is fair that people living in social housing who have more bedrooms than they need should receive less housing benefit.[…]


Tories and Labour Neck and Neck

Ed’s poll lead hasn’t frozen, it’s melted away.

Compare and contrast to last month above…


POLL: 71% Say Parliament Made Right Call on Syria Miliband Loses Public Approval Battle

Despite 71% of the public thinking that Parliament made the right call over Syria, it’s Ed Miliband that comes out of it worse according to an ICM poll for the BBC. The full tables can be found here but, here are top line figures:

On which leader got it right:

On the UK’s image abroad:

Ed may have won the day on Thursday, but it doesn’t seem to be doing much for him.[…]


Tip offs: 0709 284 0531

Quote of the Day

Peter Bone has some advice for the Commons:

“Isn’t it time we stopped banging on about Europe?”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.


Man On Sun’s Front Page Is Not Interpreter Man On Sun’s Front Page Is Not Interpreter
UKIP Leadership Latest UKIP Leadership Latest
Was it Davis or Davies? Was it Davis or Davies?
Multi-Millionaire’s “Hipster Begging” Multi-Millionaire’s “Hipster Begging”
Six Figures For Baroness Scotland’s Friends Six Figures For Baroness Scotland’s Friends
Sadiq Tree Policy Chop Sadiq Tree Policy Chop
Marmite Round-Up Marmite Round-Up
Watch Theresa May Burn Emily Thornberry Watch Theresa May Burn Emily Thornberry
Cameron: Brexit Means Leaving Single Market Cameron: Brexit Means Leaving Single Market
Runners & Riders Runners & Riders
Shami Stories Round-Up Shami Stories Round-Up
Masked Glitterballs Masked Glitterballs
Momentum Kids Momentum Kids
Slug-on-Thames for Parliament? Slug-on-Thames for Parliament?
John Cleese’s Spectator Column So Bad It Was Canned After One Article John Cleese’s Spectator Column So Bad It Was Canned After One Article
No Colleagues Attend Remain MP’s Brexit Whinge No Colleagues Attend Remain MP’s Brexit Whinge
Mark Clarke’s Ex-Lover Launching Tory Youth Group Mark Clarke’s Ex-Lover Launching Tory Youth Group