Friday, July 6, 2012

Vote-Loser Cameron Suffers Exodus From Tory Party

David Cameron has taken a battering on the blogs today with both ConservativeHome and LabourList revealing damaging new statistics about the PM’s waning popularity. Polling undertaken by Lord Ashcroft has found that a staggering 43% of  ConservativeHome readers see Cameron as a vote-loser, with a paltry 36% backing his electoral prowess. ConservativeHome gunning for Dave is ominous in the long-term. He has been warned…

LabourList is pushing a Commons report that shows membership of the Conservative Party has dropped by almost a third since Cameron became leader. The slump is pretty damning even considering that membership is usually cyclical, rising before a new leader is chosen and falling afterwards – hence why Labour’s membership numbers seem relatively flattering. Holding a leadership election to boost the coffers seems a tad extreme…

Saturday, June 2, 2012

Open Source a Private Members’ Bill

Douglas Carswell MP is a winner in the Private Members’ Bill ballot and has decided to crowd-source his Bill. Guido has set up a poll allowing readers to choose from five ideas what you would like to see debated. As a result of this exercise in direct democracy, Carswell will prepare a formal Bill with the table office, and present the winner to Parliament. Below are five ideas to choose from, use the voting form below to vote (your email is required to validate your votes).

1. Bloggers Freedom Bill: the law on copyright and libel developed in an age when very few people ever published anything. Today, millions of people blog and tweet. The law needs to reflect this. While other people’s intellectual property needs to be safeguarded, and people need protection from libel, this law would provide bloggers and tweeters with some protection against being sued, with a 48 hour period of grace before legal action could be taken.

2. Defence Procurement Bill: too much of the defence budget is spent in the interests of big defence contractors, and not in the interests of our armed forces. This Bill would make it a legal requirement to put most defence contracts out to public tender, and prevent those who have worked for the Ministry of Defence from working for defence contractors without clear safeguards.

3. Great Repeal Bill: there are too many rules and regulations. The government’s Freedom Bill, which promised to do something about it, has turned out to be pretty useless. Instead, the Great Repeal Bill – the world’s first Wiki-Bill – would repeal a vast swathe of unnecessary red tape. The details of the Bill are here.

4. Repeal of the European Communities Bill: Britain joined the European Economic Community in 1973. It has turned out to be an economic and political disaster. This Bill will get us out.

5. Competing Currencies Bill: having struggled to save the Pound, this Bill will save the value of the Pound. It will prevent ministers debauching our currency to help pay their debts. While the idea of competing currencies is not new, the internet – which allows different currencies to be used seamlessly – is, making it practically possible. Translations of the Bill will be available in Greek, Spanish and perhaps even French.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

Best Polling Question Ever

Thursday, May 3, 2012

London GLA Projections

YouGov, who were the most accurate pollsters in London 4 years ago, have produced projections for the Greater London Assembly. The good news is they expect the BNP to be wiped out, the bad news is that London could be looking at a Red-Green majority in the assembly trying to thwart Boris on cost cutting. In Germany Red-Green governed cities have veered to the far left.

It is still close and with the Tories polling double digits behind Labour since the budget, Boris has to overcome a tough national polling deficit. Paddick, despite being a better candidate than he was in 2008, is not expected to poll in double digits and UKIP are projected to cement their claim to be the third party gaining two seats and equaling the LibDems. The graphic below shows how London became Boris Town in 2008:

The suburbs besieged inner London to take control of City Hall from Red Ken…

Flandering About Yesterday

Stephanie Flanders is the Theresa May of democracy…

Sunday, April 22, 2012

24% of Tory Voters Prefer Farage to Cameron
Carswell Ahead of Cameron on Preferred Policies

Dave beats Ed 37% to 30% when it comes to the question of which party leader best defends Britain’s interests. No great surprise there.

To those who claim UKIP is not going to cut through what is interesting is that the pollsters Survation found that 24% of those that voted Conservative in 2010 –  almost a quarter – choose UKIP’s Nigel Farage as the party leader that best defends Britain’s interests. The crowding at the centre of politics is opening up space for UKIP on the right…

Tory MP Douglas Carswell might also have the last laugh after being slapped down by Cameron at PMQs for a lack of a sense of humour. The Mail on Sunday found that voters preferred Carswell’s policies over Cameron’s:

To be fair Dave too used to be in favour of an EU referendum, open primaries, MP right to recall laws and the rest. Before he was elected…

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

The UKIP Surge is Not a “Shock”

Lots of chatter this morning about the “shock” poll that has seen UKIP overtake the LibDems, but once again it seems people just haven’t been paying attention. UKIP bloggers like Michael Heaver have been tracking this trend for months and predicted it was only a matter of time. Although they use a slightly different methodology, last week Survation had a similarly high UKIP standing. Yesterday the Standard called an Assembly Seat for the Eurosceptics and predict that the Greens will lose both of theirs, though you wouldn’t know that from most of the coverage. The crucial figure for UKIP strategists is where this surge is coming from: with reliable pensioner voters UKIP are on 17% and ten points clear of the LibDems. For those hacks saying how shocking this all is, Guido recommends reading Anthony Wells who calls it “inevitable”.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Public Negativity Towards Cameron, Clegg, Miliband Maxing Out

YouGov regularly asks respondents do they approve or disapprove of the party leaders. Subtracting disapproval from approval gives a net approval rating. Guido can’t recall public negativity towards politicians being higher.

Collectively it stands at -121, that is minus one hundred and twenty-one. Dave’s personal ratings are at an all time low at -27, Clegg’s continue to be the worst at -53 and despite a bad week for the Tories, Ed Miliband’s personal rating went down further to -41. In short, the public hates all politicians.

The political class can forget forcing the public to pay for politics. We hate them all. The Guidoised perception of politics is mainstream…

Friday, March 23, 2012

One in Three Labour Voters Fleeing From Ken

While the apparatchiks over at LabourList declare that “Ken’s campaign is in fact moving from strength to strength”, the Labour Uncut website is home to Labour members of the reality based community. This morning they have gone tonto on Ken. With facts to back up their argument… 

While Boris Johnson’s 49%-41% lead on first preferences was widely reported, some of the most striking results were lost in the news vortex of the budget. Chief among these is the scale of Ken Livingstone’s problem with Labour supporters: 31% say they will not vote for him in the mayoral election. Just weeks before the election, almost 1 in 3 Labour supporters are refusing to back the party’s candidate for mayor.

The figures highlight what anecdotally we have been saying for weeks – many on the left just cannot bring themselves to vote for the hypocritical friend of the clerics.

Those Labour types that are still in denial that Ken’s tax hypocrisy is not a problem need only look at these numbers.

Wee Dougie’s New Number Watcher

Eyebrows have been raised by the replacement Douglas Alexander has chosen for his departed spinner Steve Van Riel. You would have thought that as shadow Foreign Secretary he would have brought someone in with some actual foreign policy experience, but instead the one time campaign manager to David Miliband has chosen Michelle Napchan. She’s a pollster…

Officially the line is that Napchan will be helping to craft Labour’s message by focus grouping on issues like Europe. However, given that Wee Dougie was one of the few figures able to flit between the Blairites and the Brownites, he is a key unity figure in Ed’s Shadow Cabinet and the slightest hint that he is on manoeuvres gets people talking. One Labour spinny-type suggests that he has studied how Brown did things from the shadows: “he’s building his own private operation, his own army”.  Another Labour source was not so sure though: “The only army I see Douglas Alexander building is one with Action Men”. If there is ever a move against Ed, Guido would put good money on the “unity” man being involved


Seen Elsewhere

UKIP on 23% With Survation | Mirror
UKIP Could Deal With Dave | Douglas Carswell
Tories Would Lower Benefit Cap | Telegraph
Bashir Twitter Meltdown | Mirror
Bashir is a Wrong’un | Norman Tebbit
Natalie Bennett Says it Should Not be a Crime to Belong to ISIS | Indy
LibDems Fifth in London | Standard
45 Mirror Group Stories Linked to Phone-Hacking | Press Gazette
Dave’s Diet | Speccie
Pink’O’Flynn | HuffPo
Trojan Horse Destroying British Values | Nick Wood


Find out more about PLMR AD-MS


George Galloway says of his former Respect candidate the UKIP MEP turned Tory, Amjad Bashir…

“Clearly Bashir does not have any real political principles or commitment, only naked opportunism and self-interest. He represents the revolving door principle in politics. The Tories are welcome to him because he will cause them embarrassment. Fortunately Respect was able to act before he did it to us.”


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