End of Ed’s “Cost of Living Crisis”

At the beginning of the year Guido predicted that the data would soon show that Ed’s “Cost-of-Living Crisis” was at an end. Today inflation fell to 2%, hitting the Bank of England’s target for the first time in four years and last month saw reported UK wage growth hit a six year high. Wage growth is set to outstrip inflation and with that the end of the rationale for Ed Miliband’s “Cost-of-Living Crisis”. The public are increasingly confident:

icm-confidence

All Ed’s slogans turn to dust “too far, too fast” was demonstrated to be wrong and Labour MPs think “One Nation Labour” is vacuous. Back to the drawing board…

Sleepless Night Figures for Labour Stategists


No wonder the Tories are determined to play this as a presidential straight fight.

Via YouGov/Electionista 

Cameron Optimistic for 2014 Pundits Divided for 2015

dc-14
Dave’s New Year message is essentially “The plan is working… Our recovery is real, but it’s also fragile, and there are more difficult decisions ahead” translation: more cuts coming. Electing the two Eds into government would mean their “economic madness would devastate this country.” The dig at French Hollibandism is well judged, “more borrowing, more spending and more debt” leads to “increasing unemployment, industrial stagnation and enterprise in free fall. The opposite of what’s happening here”. Expect a lot more of this before next year’s election…

Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com still reckons the Tories are doomed, he has three-figure bets at evens with Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs (of ConservativeHome) that the Tories won’t win most seats. He says it is “very hard to see a pathway to a Conservative majority.” UKIP of course stands in their way

Dan Hodges argues that 2013 was a disastrous year for Ed Miliband, whereas at the end of 2012 Labour’s YouGov daily poll average lead was 11.3%, as 2013 ends it has fallen to 6%. Ed Miliband’s personal YouGov approval rating was -21%, it has now fallen to -34%. Only Ted Heath has won an election from opposition with anything like such negative personal ratings.

Even as the Tories and LibDems have overseen a rising economy only UKIP can claim a good year,  yet many pundits seem to have subjectively upgraded Miliband’s chances of getting into 10 Downing Street despite, objectively, the polling numbers worsening for him.  Andrew Cooper, the pollster whom the PM replaced in Downing Street with Lynton Crosby, last night tweeted out facts repeatedly muttered by Blairites:

Someone once correctly said “there are no rules in politics”. That triple election winner was right. Guido makes it too close to call…

UKIP Polling Up to 30% in Key Swing Seats Donor Buys Page Ad in Telegraph to Rebut Ashcroft

Four more constituency polls from Survation out this morning, bankrolled by UKIP’s millionaire bookie donor Alan Bown. UKIP are up to 28% in Folkestone and Hythe, 30% in Great Yarmouth and 27% in Bognor Regis & Littlehampton. In Crewe and Nantwich they are only on 11%, but the Tories fall behind Labour into second. Indeed the Tories are down by an average of 14 points on their 2010 results across the four seats. You can use the drop down box on the interactive graph above to see the results in full.

Bown has taken out a full page ad in today’s Telegraph to answer Lord Ashcroft’s claim that voting UKIP puts Miliband into Number 10. UKIP have two lines on this. First, that today’s polls show the net gain to the Tories if UKIP were not to field a candidate would be only 2% nationally. Only 26% of voters polled said they would vote Tory if UKIP did not run so, put simply, not enough are not going to ‘come home’ in 2015 as the Tories hope. Second, that UKIP voters do not really care if Miliband becomes PM. 53% said they would rather vote UKIP than Tory even if that meant Ed won, just 33% said they would vote Tory instead of UKIP to stop him. That is the number that will cost the Tories in 2015…

GRAPHS: Labour 20 Points Clear in Key Marginals

Two more Survation polls on key marginals out this morning. If the trends in the three constituencies polled so far turn out to be representative, it is pretty clear what the consequences are for the Tories. In Great Grimsby Labour are 20 points clear, as UKIP rise to second place on 22%:

In Dudley North Labour have another 20 point lead, with the Tories down 12% on 2010 and the LibDems on 2%, almost competely wiped out. UKIP are up on 23%.

More worryingly for the Tories, 70 percent of UKIP voters say they did not vote Tory in 2010. So they are aren’t exactly going to come home. The UKIP effect on 2015 is becoming ever clearer…

UKIP on 30% in South Thanet

Retiring Tory MP Laura Sandys was well-liked in parliament but an arch-Europhile and a dripping wet, so South Thanet always offered potential for Farage. Now she is standing down there is no incumbency factor either, and a seat-specific poll from Survation has the Tories down 20 points in third place on 28%.

Labour are up in first in 35%, though it is UKIP’s 24 point increase to 30%, just 5 points behind Labour, that is interesting. Arguably most worryingly for Cameron, 78% of UKIP voters said they wouldn’t vote Tory even if there was no UKIP candidate and 52% said they did not care if Miliband became PM. Voting purple puts red in, and the Tories are so far completely failing to convince voters of the consequences…

Via Survation and Mike Smithson.

GRAPH: Majority Support Removal of Spare Room Subsidy

More evidence to show that Labour are consistently losing the debate on welfare. Even on the spare room subsidy – Labour’s “hated bedroom tax” – the public support the government. 54% say it is fair that people living in social housing who have more bedrooms than they need should receive less housing benefit. Just 27% disagree. The bedroom ‘tax’ is Labour’s favourite means of painting the Tories as callous and out of touch, the only problem is the public supports the policy…

Tories and Labour Neck and Neck

Ed’s poll lead hasn’t frozen, it’s melted away.

Compare and contrast to last month above…

POLL: 71% Say Parliament Made Right Call on Syria Miliband Loses Public Approval Battle

Despite 71% of the public thinking that Parliament made the right call over Syria, it’s Ed Miliband that comes out of it worse according to an ICM poll for the BBC. The full tables can be found here but, here are top line figures:

On which leader got it right:

On the UK’s image abroad:

Ed may have won the day on Thursday, but it doesn’t seem to be doing much for him.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Poll Ed-Ache

Where’s Ed Miliband has been the question on everyone’s lips this week. Well after briefly surfacing to be egged yesterday, today we find him languishing in an Evening Standard poll. The paper have gone with the extremely delicate headline “Sorry Ed, they’re just not that into you: Six out of 10 don’t like Labour leader Miliband”:

“63 per cent of people say they do not like Mr Miliband, up from 56 per cent last October and 51 per cent in January 2011. 

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Unite Behind Right-Wing Press

One gem hidden away at the bottom of Lord Ashcroft’s Unite polling today. As much as Ed and Red Len might want to think otherwise, just 11% of Unite members read the Guardian and Mirror respectively. Turns out not far off double that read the Mail and the Sun.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Poll Results: 58% Say MPs Ungrateful and Overpaid

This morning, following his story about lazy male MPs demanding longer lie-ins, Guido asked readers how they would describe the attitude of MPs to work. Over 2,000 responded and the results are in:

A rather damning indictment of the public’s attitude to MPs.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Lazy Male MPs Want Longer Lie-Ins

Lazy male MPs are demanding longer lie-ins before they start work in the morning. Leaked internal polling commissioned by the House of Commons Procedure Committee, in charge of sitting hours, reveals that 56% of male MPs say early starts are having a “negative impact” on the House’s effectiveness.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Only 3 in 10 Unite Members Would Opt In to Political Fund Just 12% Would Join Labour Party

A damning Lord Ashcroft poll of Unite members out this morning. If members had to opt in to the political fund, where their membership fees go towards the Labour Party, only 30% would choose to do so. 53% say they would not.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Two Things to Note From Today's Guardian/ICM Poll

Labour and the Tories are neck and neck with UKIP trailing off in this morning’s ICM poll for the Guardian. Though as Mike Smithson explains ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP at the 2009 Euros, where it undershot their result by 6.5% and had them in fourth place when they came second.[…]

+ READ MORE +

UKIP on 22% in Survation Poll

One point behind the Tories. Interesting to see how today’s vote affects that…[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Heather Wheeler talks to Burton Mail about her tweet…

“It was a tongue in cheek pop after the European Parliament tweet – it was purely that. I also wanted to congratulate Team GB on a brilliant result and thirdly congratulate the Commonwealth countries who also did very well. Fourth, I am also looking forwarded to establishing new trade agreements. That was it – nothing more. Let’s just enjoy the summer!”

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