Miliband’s Tactical Blunder

Europe is now the third most important issue to voters. A few months ago Guido suggested that if Ed had any eye for the long game he would ground Labour in popular Euroscepticism. He didn’t listen, in fact he did the polar opposite, and now he’s paying the price in the polls. Miliband’s lead over the Tories is about the only reason most of the Parliamentary Labour Party put up with him. Today every major polling firm has the Tories ahead or at least level with Labour again. Uh oh…

YouGov and Ipos-Mori both have the Tories on 2 points ahead on 41, while Survation and ComRes have them tied on 38. The LibDems are still just on the right side of double digits, while UKIP, who have been enjoying a recent surge while it appeared Cameron was going to sell the country down the river, have dropped back down to the 4 or 5 point mark.  That vote is sure to trickle back up after the initial veto-honeymoon for Dave…

Miliband has slumped in personal rankings as well. And it’s not just the pro-polling:

“But it’s a new LabourList poll of grassroots members that may also dismay Team Miliband. It found that the number of their readers rating Ed a good or excellent leader has fallen from 40% in November to just 26% this month. His decline in popularity appears to be linked to the public sector strikes: although 83% of readers backed the industrial action, only 25% though the Labour leader handled his party’s response well.”

Labour will win tomorrow’s by-election, but if these numbers become a regular feature it’s going take more than a “five-point plan for jobs and growth” to save Ed’s bacon.

Poll Bounce Reflects Lucky Hat-Trick for Dave

The ICM poll showing a 2% Tory lead is being discounted as a rogue, after all YouGov and others show a single digit lead for Ed Miliband. That may be true, but there is a consistent Tory lead when poll respondents are forced to choose between Cameron and Miliband. A cabinet minister told Guido that come election day the choice will boil down to Prime Minister Miliband or Prime Minister Cameron and that is no contest. Dave, like Blair before him, is lucky in his opponents.

Dave’s luck held last week, for on the day following George Osborne telling the nation that the Coalition would fail to in its primary mission of closing the deficit by the end of this parliament, a failure to achieve the goal which Osborne set himself, the news flow turned on the unions. Any attack by Ed Balls on Osborne was drowned out by the Labour Party’s paymasters striking against deficit reducing measures.

Dave’s third piece of luck was provided by his friend Jeremy Clarkson. Clarkson’s “shoot the strikers” row drowned out the union’s message. Most of the population will remember only Clarkson’s outburst about strikers rather than the exact reason they were striking. Instead of the front page story being about pensions it was about Clarkson, some might think the unions were protesting against JeremyDave couldn’t have planned it better…

Dead Ed Data

Guido is currently up to his neck trying to unravel sleazy paper trails, company documents and bank account details. He’s not quite ready to lift that lid, so in the mean time he thought he’d share some bad news for Red Ed in the latest Ipos Mori data. Reality based Labour supporters are waking up to what a disaster he is going to be for them:

 

The number of Labour voters dissatisfied with his leadership has tripled in a year. Nearly forty percent are not happy…

70% of the Public Want a Vote

As the Honourable Members go through the division lobbies at ten o’clock tonight they will be voting against the will of the public. Even the Guardian say so

Their ICM poll conducted this week says that 70% want a referendum. 49% want to leave the EU. Empirical proof that our political class are not representing the people…

Was Starkey Racist?

Popular Support for the Restore Justice Campaign

Pollster Anthony Wells has reviewed the polling evidence, all of which shows popular support for the death penalty everywhere in Britain, except in parliament.

A lot of readers are asking why the e-petition specifies child killers and cop killers. The reasons are two-fold, in the case of child killers some crimes are so abhorrent that society demands more than protection, it wants retribution. Myra Hindley and Ian Brady’s 13 minute tape of them sexually torturing 10 year-old Lesley Ann Downey, with the child’s endless screams and pleas for her mother, truly shocked a nation. Hindley and Brady tortured and killed five children for sexual kicks. Even after half-a-century of pampered imprisonment they proved beyond rehabilitation. In cases like theirs, where there is no doubt of guilt and after due process of the law, justice should not prevent retribution. Retribution is missing from the criminal justice system.

The Soham murderer, Ian Huntley and Milly Dowler’s killer Levi Bellfield, a serial killer, would both under this proposed legislation pay for their crimes with their own life. That is the wish of many victim’s families, in the words of Gemma Dowler they want “a life for a life”. So do the public…

When the public are asked about the death penalty the results have consistently shown a majority in favour, when they are asked specifically about child killers, the numbers change dramatically with a range of polls showing two-thirds to three-quarters in in favour. On this issue there is definitely a clear regressive majority in Britain.

It is a similar picture for cop killers, the public understands that the police put themselves in harm’s way on their behalf every day. If a criminal in the course of committing a crime kills a police officer it is invariably deliberate. Having the death penalty for cop killers will make criminals fear the consequences and give extra legislative protection to the police beyond a stab vest. Once again the public shows a two-thirds majority in favour of the death penalty for cop killers. Not because their lives are worth more than ours, it is because the police daily risk their lives to protect our lives.

The third common objection is that Britain is bound by treaties that prevent us implementing the death penalty. Some claim that the ECHR prevents us, actually the Covenant itself specifically exempts “a sentence of a court following his conviction of a crime for which this penalty is provided by law”, it is later protocols which were added on that prohibit the death penalty. The protocols can be of course de-ratified or Britain can withdraw from the ECHR. The e-petition calls on the Ministry of Justice to first review international commitments and prepare a legislative escape path before bringing forward substantive legislation. This is what a free and sovereign nation of laws does if parliament wishes to change course. 

The “Restore Justice” campaign website will be up and running by the end of the week, thousands have registered to support the campaign already. You can too, here.

Second Poll Shows UK Wants Out of EU

It turns out other news is happening this week that doesn’t involve mobile phones. Guido thinks two polls in as many days that have shown half of the country are prepared to leave the EU would normally get more traction. This week the government forced a statutory instrument through Parliament, with the slimmest of majorities, that will see us giving more money through a £9.2 billion increase to the IMF, than we cut in the first round of spending cuts. The public is getting sick of it.

A YouGov@Cambridge/PoliticsHome poll poll showed that if there was an in/out referendum tomorrow 50% would vote to leave and just 33% to stay. Remarkably this is almost identical to yesterday’s 49%/25% Angus Reid poll. As Greece continues to burn money, Italy teeters on the brink and Ireland has its credit rating reduced to junk status, the public are finally waking up to the problem. Every cloud…

Only 7% Believe That Brooks Did Not Know

A poll by Survation for Channel 4 News has found 72% of the public do not believe that executives at News International were unaware of the new hacking allegations. As the nation wakes up to the confusion that the newspaper that most ardently supports our armed services was snooping on our dead servicemen, things aren’t looking good for anyone.

The country seems split on the BSkyB deal, with 48% now thinking News Corp are unfit to proceed with the deal, but that could the least of the worries. The magnificent Peter Oborne has given Cameron two barrels in the Telegraph:

“Until now it has been easy to argue that Mr Cameron was properly grounded with a decent set of values. Unfortunately, it is impossible to make that assertion any longer. He has made not one, but a long succession of chronic personal misjudgments…

So the Prime Minister is in a mess. To put the matter rather more graphically, he is in a sewer.”

Things are starting to turn for Cameron very rapidly and we’re yet to reach the bottom…

23% Of Voters Think Ed is David

The Indy have a hilarious Comres poll in which 2,000 voters were shown pictures of various members of the Shadow Cabinet. Unsurprisingly the majority of the bland B-team were not recognised, but most damning is the facet that one in […]

YouGov: 51% Want Ban On Taxpayer Funded Union Staff

A Taxpayers’ Alliance and YouGov poll shows more than half the country would like to see an end to the controversial practice of public sector union officials being paid while they do union activity instead of working. As the unions […]

Macintyre and Hasan Hit Ed Where It Hurts

Mehdi Hasan went into damage control mode over at the Guardian this morning, with a long piece that essentially boils down to “please don’t blame my book for Ed’s nosedive in the polls”. He goes on to offer […]

Clegg Gets a Spanking
Salmond Leaps

The local government campaigning experts the LibDems have lost every councillor in Manchester, control of Sheffield, and the decapitation of their council leaders across the north. They are 340 councillors down, with less than half of counts having declared. Labour […]



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Quote of the Day

Tim Shipman to Adam Boulton on the TV debates…

“If Cameron gets in a car to go to the debate, Lynton Crosby will stage a car crash.”

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