It’s going to be a long day…
As the anger grows over Andrew Marr’s audacity at paying to hide his own public interest story, while being paid to probe the lives of the rest of the political class, Guido thought he would gauge opinion:
Don’t forget we pay him £600,000 a year for the pleasure. No wonder he could afford the luxury of an injunction and to support a child that wasn’t even his.
Despite Westminster being abandoned, it has been a long political week, that has thrown up an interesting poll by Ipos-Mori. Political Betting report that the Tories are back up to 40%, level-pegging with Labour. Despite the NHS reforms apple cart being kicked over and Miliband constantly popping up all over the place making speeches, his lead is has disappeared. The continued dire LibDem percentage doesn’t bode well for the Yes campaign.
Guido wonders how far ahead Labour would be by now with David in charge…
Theoretically Hague is meant to be leading the No2AV charge for the Tories, yet he has been virtually invisible so far due to Libya et al. Instead Osborne has given the Yes campaign two barrels in not one, but two, identical interviews this morning. He told the Mail:
“The ERS, which is actually running some of the referendum ballots, and is being paid to do that by the taxpayer, stands to benefit if AV comes in… that organisation, the Electoral Reform Society – part of it is a company that makes money – is funding the Yes campaign. That stinks frankly and is exactly the sort of dodgy, behind the scenes shenanigans that people don’t like about politics.”
He told the Sun it was “dodgy” and they have a new poll that shows the more people know about AV the less they like it. When asked the referendum question 44% said No – with 37% backing Yes. But this grows to 45% and 33% once the system is explained. The bookies prices reflect this with with the latest odds for Yes at 44% (+6%) versus no 60% (-1%). It seems Yes’s attempt to become the anti-politics vote is falling flat.
The deputy Prime Minister (when he remembers) is set to be humiliated in the Barnsley by-election because, according to a survey in the Mail, the LibDems are looking likely to come fourth after coming second in the general election.
UKIP’s Jane Collins was ‘born and bred’ in Yorkshire, raised in Pontefract, the daughter of a miner and is the blonde who is set to land a bombshell on Clegg’s party.
Dan Jarvis (Labour) will cruise home with a wacking 63%, James Hockney (Conservative) will stay in double figures on 13%, Jane Collins (UKIP) on 9% could push Dominic Carman (Liberal Democrats) into a humiliating fourth place next to the BNP and other assorted loonies. The survey data shows the most former LibDem voters switching back to Labour. This will give Clegg party management problems with the left of the LibDems…
The latest YouGov polling [pdf] on the London mayoral voting intentions shows Boris leads Ken 44% to 41% amongst the “C2DE” working class voters, even though Labour has a 12% lead nationally amongst the same group of voters in a general election. Ken is clearly the Islington Guardianista candidate…
Downing Street should be worried – the failure to attract working class voters stopped Dave from winning last year. On these numbers Boris could have done it…
Guido is contemplating catching up on Channel 4’s latest slice of leftism, but he thought he would test the water first…
As the Old and Sad voters head to the polls this morning, Labour seem certain that they are heading for win. Buoyed by the ICM and Populus poll boosts, Newsnight all but declared them victors last night, excitedly preparing their “dark day for the Coalition” lines. Smarkets punters say Labour are going to take it too…
Could the celebrations be a little premature though? The Survation poll showed there was still a huge amount of undecided voters. The fieldwork for all three polls showed there was already a shift from Conservatives to the LibDems, and given the coverage the “it’s a two horse race” line has got since Sunday, it’s possible that even more Tories might decide to do what Dave wants them to do and back the LibDem. Whether or not this has enough of an impact to sway it, the result is certainly going to be closer than the 17% lead suggested by some pollsters…
Does Europe Really Want Britain to Quit? | Nick Wood
Immigration Nation | Hopi Sen
Tories Choose Anti-Israel Candidate in Rochester | JC
Osborne’s Daycare Obsession is a Time Bomb | Kathy Gyngell
BBC Marr Pinko Trying to Ban the Queen | Speccie
Eric Hobsbawm: Companion of Dishonour | Standpoint
Guido Party Gossip | Iain Dale
Russell Brand Comes Out as 9/11 Truther | Guardian
Health Revolution is Underway | Fraser Nelson
UKIP Gets Professional | Red Box
Kelly Tolhurst Wins Rochester Open Primary | BBC
Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann on Cameron’s refusal to pay the £1.7 billion EU bill by December 1st:
“Well, then he’s gonna pay on December 2nd”