Saturday, October 10, 2009

The State of Play Post-Conference

rsz_yg-today-votingintentionNote that Labour’s number drops back before the end of their conference, immediately after Brown’s speech.  In contrast the speeches of Clegg and Cameron lifted their respective party’s numbers.  He is a Jonah for the Labour Party and the country…

Friday, October 2, 2009

No Post-Conference Brown Bounce

YG-today-votingIntention
Let the bloodletting begin…

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Even Labour Voters Prefer Cameron to Brown

With YouGov polling that the Tories are still seen as more trusted with the NHS than Labour, the Guardian/ICM poll has another glaring result:

Asked, regardless of individual party preferences, whether a Tory government under David Cameron, or a Labour one under Gordon Brown, would be best for Britain 37% of people who voted Labour in 2005 – now think Cameron would be best, only 31% back Brown.

The Conservatives lead Labour among all social classes and in all regions…

If those numbers were true in any other British political party they would just get rid of the leader. The Labour Party has lost the collective will to win and turned into a horde of lemmings…

Monday, July 13, 2009

BBC Guardian Co-Sponsoring Research

The BBC is viewed by many right-wingers as the broadcasting arm of the Guardianistas.  The Beeboids argue that this is unfair, and that the BBC is an unbiased, objective, public service broadcaster.  The BBC and the Guardian jointly sponsored an ICM survey into public opinion about the Iraq war.  Guido can’t guardian-logorecall a time when the BBC has got into bed with a newspaper like this – imagine the uproar if the BBC had co-sponsored a poll about immigration with the Daily Mail.    Birds of a feather flock together?

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Mindtracking PMQs – Crowdsourcing v Punditry

Yesterday’s Mindtracker for PMQs was very interesting datawise for political geeks, over a thousand people (1,150 people between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m.) twiddled their knobs online, so the poll is statistically valid. In comparison Frank Luntz typically has only 30 people polled in a room.  Watch the video above to see how people responded in realtime.  The chart below shows how viewers scored the PMQs exchange at key points:

pmq-mindtracker-chart

Overall yesterday was a win for William Hague. Crucially voters who defined themselves as being in the centre scored the contest as a win for Hague, even those who defined themselves as being on the left tended to think that Hague won the argument.  If you want to drill down the full analysis and get a look at a bigger chart it is all here.

Next week following PMQs the experiment will run across a number of blogs from across the spectrum.  Will be very interesting to compare differing responses from different readerships…

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

ComRes Johnson / Hung Parliament Poll

That ComRes poll frontpaged on the Indy this morning is interesting.  Just one note of caution, ComRes was the least accurate of the major pollsters last week. They say today that if Johnson replaced Brown, the the Tory share of the vote would be reduced 2% and the Labour share of the vote increased 4%.

ComRes got the shares of the votes wildy wrong in the euro-elections, the BNP actually tripled the share that ComRes predicted, the Greens doubled the share predicted and Labour got 7% less than they predicted.  Massive errors in polling terms, take this poll with a 7% pinch of salt.

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Another Poll Has Labour Third

conhom_rolling_poll
Nokias will be bouncing off the walls…

Friday, May 29, 2009

Populus Put Labour Behind UKIP

Populus

According to a Populus poll for The Times,  the Tories are on 30%, UKIP have surged to 19%, Labour fell to 16%, the Liberal Democrats are on 12%.  The Greens are on 10% and the BNP trail with 5%.  The BNP will be lucky to get a seat…

Thursday, April 30, 2009

8% of LibDem Voters are Mad

The PoliticsHome poll showing that 95% of Tories, 66% 0f LibDems and 50% of Labour voters think the Tories will win the next election is not much of a surprise.

That 8% of voters (who just happen to be LibDem supporters) surprisingly think the LibDems are going to win the general election suggests that they are either just extremely optimistic, mad or lying. Hmmm…

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Ipsos MORI : 52% Happy with Dave, 59% Unhappy with Gordon

Personal RatingsThere is no coming back from numbers like this whatever pundits say. Gordon is going to take the Labour Party down with him. The reality is that his personal negative rating is a deadweight on the party’s electoral prospects.

Ipsos MORI March Political Monitor – Conservative lead Labour by 10 points despite economic optimism rising

  • Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s personal ratings have increased since last month: one in three (34%) are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as Prime Minister, and three in five (59%) are dissatisfied, giving a net score (the percentage satisfied minus the percentage dissatisfied) of -25.
  • Public opinion on how David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party has shown a marked increase since February 2009: 52% are satisfied (up nine points from last month) and 30% dissatisfied (down four points), yielding a net figure of +22. This is a thirteen point ‘net’ increase (from last month’s net figure of +9) and matches the highest satisfaction rating we have ever recorded for David Cameron (in August 2008).

Labour strategists and activists know they are “going down with Brown”…

UPDATE : Labour contested the City Wards elections for the first time in history, breaking with the City’s tradition of independents. They lost every single seat.


Seen Elsewhere

Labour’s Plan to Attack Part-Time Boris | Standard
Ex-Sun Hack Cleared After 582 Days on Bail | MediaGuido
11 Times Boris Denied He Would Stand for Parliament | Buzzfeed
Attacking UKIP’s Posters is Counter-Productive | Guardian
Sarkozy Tried it on With Hollande’s Ex | Times
Another Spare Room Subsidy Cut Success | Harry Phibbs
Rich Now Have Less Leisure Than Poor | Economist
UKIP’s Immigration Policy Promotes Migrant Entrepreneurs | Breitbart
Another Feminist Lecture | Laura Perrins
UKIP Posters Bad Economics But Good Politics | James Delingpole
Tories Losing to UKIP in Scotland | ConHome


new-advert
Guido-hot-button (1) Guido-hot-button (1)


A confused Nick Griffin says Nigel Farage is a shill for the City, forgetting that City banks want to stay in the EU:

“Farage is a snake oil salesman, but a very good one. His supposed anti-immigration stance is all smoke and mirrors, as is his carefully cultivated image as a ‘man of the people’. The truth is that UKIP is a pro-immigration party that exists to lobby for the interests of the City of London.”



Alexrod says:

It’s money innit.


Tip off Guido
Web Guido's Archives

Subscribe me to:






RSS


AddThis Feed Button
Archive


Labels
Guido Reads