The Guidoisation of polling…

It is still close and with the Tories polling double digits behind Labour since the budget, Boris has to overcome a tough national polling deficit. Paddick, despite being a better candidate than he was in 2008, is not expected to poll in double digits and UKIP are projected to cement their claim to be the third party gaining two seats and equaling the LibDems. The graphic below shows how London became Boris Town in 2008:

The suburbs besieged inner London to take control of City Hall from Red Ken…

Just tried to vote. My polling station, in Hammersmith, had closed two hours early. Has anyone else had same problem?—
Stephanie Flanders (@BBCStephanie) May 02, 2012

My democratic outrage is now in abeyance. Apparently all stations closed because, er, today isn't Thursday. Clearly I need an early night.—
Stephanie Flanders (@BBCStephanie) May 02, 2012

Stephanie Flanders is the Theresa May of democracy…

To those who claim UKIP is not going to cut through what is interesting is that the pollsters Survation found that 24% of those that voted Conservative in 2010 –  almost a quarter - choose UKIP’s Nigel Farage as the party leader that best defends Britain’s interests. The crowding at the centre of politics is opening up space for UKIP on the right…

Tory MP Douglas Carswell might also have the last laugh after being slapped down by Cameron at PMQs for a lack of a sense of humour. The Mail on Sunday found that voters preferred Carswell’s policies over Cameron’s:

To be fair Dave too used to be in favour of an EU referendum, open primaries, MP right to recall laws and the rest. Before he was elected…

Lots of chatter this morning about the “shock” poll that has seen UKIP overtake the LibDems, but once again it seems people just haven’t been paying attention. UKIP bloggers like Michael Heaver have been tracking this trend for months and predicted it was only a matter of time. Although they use a slightly different methodology, last week Survation had a similarly high UKIP standing. Yesterday the Standard called an Assembly Seat for the Eurosceptics and predict that the Greens will lose both of theirs, though you wouldn’t know that from most of the coverage. The crucial figure for UKIP strategists is where this surge is coming from: with reliable pensioner voters UKIP are on 17% and ten points clear of the LibDems. For those hacks saying how shocking this all is, Guido recommends reading Anthony Wells who calls it “inevitable”.

YouGov regularly asks respondents do they approve or disapprove of the party leaders. Subtracting disapproval from approval gives a net approval rating. Guido can’t recall public negativity towards politicians being higher.

Collectively it stands at -121, that is minus one hundred and twenty-one. Dave’s personal ratings are at an all time low at -27, Clegg’s continue to be the worst at -53 and despite a bad week for the Tories, Ed Miliband’s personal rating went down further to -41. In short, the public hates all politicians.

The political class can forget forcing the public to pay for politics. We hate them all. The Guidoised perception of politics is mainstream…

While the apparatchiks over at LabourList declare that “Ken’s campaign is in fact moving from strength to strength”, the Labour Uncut website is home to Labour members of the reality based community. This morning they have gone tonto on Ken. With facts to back up their argument… 

While Boris Johnson’s 49%-41% lead on first preferences was widely reported, some of the most striking results were lost in the news vortex of the budget. Chief among these is the scale of Ken Livingstone’s problem with Labour supporters: 31% say they will not vote for him in the mayoral election. Just weeks before the election, almost 1 in 3 Labour supporters are refusing to back the party’s candidate for mayor.

The figures highlight what anecdotally we have been saying for weeks – many on the left just cannot bring themselves to vote for the hypocritical friend of the clerics.

Those Labour types that are still in denial that Ken’s tax hypocrisy is not a problem need only look at these numbers.

Officially the line is that Napchan will be helping to craft Labour’s message by focus grouping on issues like Europe. However, given that Wee Dougie was one of the few figures able to flit between the Blairites and the Brownites, he is a key unity figure in Ed’s Shadow Cabinet and the slightest hint that he is on manoeuvres gets people talking. One Labour spinny-type suggests that he has studied how Brown did things from the shadows: “he’s building his own private operation, his own army”.  Another Labour source was not so sure though: ”The only army I see Douglas Alexander building is one with Action Men”. If there is ever a move against Ed, Guido would put good money on the “unity” man being involved…

Earlier today a ComRes poll for the BBC was a similar headache for Ken. Boris is beating him on crime, trust, likeability and, most embarrassingly, on transport issues. Ken has made his fares promise (which FactCheck said was rubbish) the central plank of his campaign, but the public just don’t buy it. Last month Ken was ahead of Boris on sticking to promises. That lead has now gone…

Ken has seen a six point drop in those who say he “sticks to what he believes”. If Ken can’t even be honest abut his own finances, what chance does he have of convincing others to trust him with their money. Trust is Ken’s biggest weakness and he seems incapable of being honest and straight-forward, despite evidence countering what he says being freely available. Take last night’s rally where his campaign claimed there were 500 people:

Surprise, surprise the pictures tell a different story.

UPDATE: Our co-conspirator who made it inside last night’s Ken event says by the entrance door there were two mug-shot pictures of Guido and Neo-Guido presumably for the benefit of the security guards. He also says that in his speech Ken called the Telegraph’s Andrew Gilligan “mad” and Guido a “thug“. Ken’s hurting, badly…

The latest YouGov Mayoral polling has Boris back in the lead, but within the margin of error. Guido imagines the fluctuation will continue for a while, but Joe Murphy at the Standard hits the nail on the head:

“What the headline figures do show, beyond doubt, is that Ken has failed to extend or harden his January lead. He is like a marathon runner who, in a stupendous effort, catches up with the leader only to find he cannot break ahead. “

Only 44% believe Ken will keep his promises, despite liking the ideas. As ever the breakdown is more interesting than the headline figures:

“In inner London, Ken is ahead by 53 per cent to 47. But the huge outer doughnut is sticking with Boris by 52 to 48. Among voters aged 18 to 24 the pair get 50 per cent each. Ken is somewhat ahead among 25 to 59-year-olds. But Boris has a massive “grey power” advantage, a two to one lead among the over-sixties.”

Crucially that suburban doughnut is a) bigger and b) full of those over 65s who are more likely to vote.