Theresa May Smiling as Tory Polls Improving

poll icm july

When run through Election Polling’s UK swingometer, ICM’s figures today show that Labour is facing down the barrel of May’s gun next election. If these numbers become a uniform swing, the Tories are likely to take 41 seats from Labour and two from the LibDems, with a further surprise win in SNP held Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. In all, the Tories have gained nine points since ICM’s last pre-referendum poll. Meanwhile, Labour are set to lose 43 seats. They’d even lose a seat to the Lib Dems in Cambridge…

Trump 5% Ahead of Clinton

nate-trump

As Hillary Clinton prepares to woo America at the Democratic Convention, Trump is 5% ahead in a CNN national poll and on a state-by-state forecast basis according to Nate Silver.

This is the picture now. Hillary has the advantage that most of the press and broadcast networks will be for her and despite boos at the convention from Bernie supporters – after he sold out and backed her – she will get 90% of her party’s activist support. Something is changing though and Trump’s cultural conservatism and protectionist “America First” positioning is appealing to blue collar Democrats. Left-wing activist Michael Moore reckons Trump is going to win because he connects with Americans in a way cold, calculating, “made in DC” Hillary never will. Trump has surprised all the pundits so far…

Corbyn Miles Ahead, Eagle and Smith Crash and Burn

Jeremy Corbyn is more popular than ever with Labour members and is set to comfortably retain the leadership, while Angela Eagle and particularly Owen Smith have crashed and burned, according to a new YouGov poll. 54% of Labour members eligible to vote say Jez will be their first preference, way ahead of nearest challenger Eagle, who is second on 21%. Smith, who Tom Watson and the ‘old Right’ Labour establishment want as the sole candidate, has bombed with the membership. A pitiful 15% would back him. In a one v one run-off Corbyn would beat either candidate by over 20 points. If you were Angela or Owen looking at these numbers, would you even want to be on the ballot?

Labour Voters Agree Corbyn Would be “A Good Prime Minister”

eagle corbyn stats

Topline figures from Ipsos MORI’s July political monitor might have made gloomy reading for Corbyn supporters. When asked whether or not they agree that Corbyn has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister, only 23% agreed, with 68% disagreeing, 6% impartial, and 3% “Don’t Know” (Eagle scored 21%, 40%, 15%, and 24% respectively).

However, when this is broken down into just Labour voters, the picture changes dramatically. 47% of Labour voters agree Jez has what it takes to be a good PM – compared to just 30% for Angela Eagle. In total, net 3% of Labour voters agreed with the question for Corbyn, compared to -7% for Eagle. These are voters – not members – and therefore could represent Labour’s core more accurately than internal membership polls. Though the distinction is irrelevant – both Labour members and voters clearly back Corbyn…

Without Boris, May Public’s Most Favoured Tory Leader

Fav-Rates

A new poll by Survation on behalf of the Constitutional Research Council tells you why people were calling Theresa May “Prime Minister” last night at the Spectator’s summer party. A poll of the general public has May as the only one with a significant positive favourability rating – Boris would have been the other.

More-likely

What will concentrate Tory MPs minds is the likelihood to vote Tory numbers. May again is the run away winner…

Tory MPs Begin Voting, Gove’s Ratings Crushed

tory+leadership+pie

A long-term Gove loyalist told Guido yesterday that he hoped the Chilcot drama tomorrow will provide cover for his preferred candidate’s likely humiliation on Thursday. The miscalculation of the Boricide has been devastating for Gove’s campaign. The polite, good-humoured, fun Gove – popular across the party – is now seen as a ruthless Machiavellian bastard. Gove’s ratings with Tory supporters have plummeted according to ConservativeHome, YouGov has also seen his personal net approval rating with Tory members plummet from +41 to -20 in a week. Unprecedented.

Last night the Johnsons split, with Boris backing Leadsom and Jo backing May after previously backing his brother. Not quite up to the psycho-drama of the Milibands…

Boris and May Neck and Neck

poll

This is the much awaited Conservative Home poll of party members – Boris and T-May are neck and neck. May’s allies are confident she can win with the members. But Boris has the personality and was the hero of Brexit…

Final Campaign Report: Independence Day

frontpages

Leave message: Vote Leave.

Remain message: Vote Remain.

Cut through: It is voting day.

Leave social media count: 541,694 likes, 68,734 followers.

Remain social media count: 540,681 likes, 48,280 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/4, Leave 7/2

pop

Latest poll: Remain 48%, Leave 42% (Comres , phone), Remain 44%, Leave 45% (Opinium, online), Remain 45%, Leave 45% (YouGov, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 47%, Leave 45%. Two more polls expected today from Ipsos Mori and YouGov…

Leave 2 Points Ahead With YouGov

Remain: 42% (-2)

Leave: 44% (+1)

Don’t Know: 9% (uc)

Would Not Vote: 4% (uc)

Online poll taken between 17-19 June…

Via Sam Coates

UPDATE: ORB on the other hand has Remain leading 49-47.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Leave Move Ahead With Survation Too

bad-news

LEAVE: 45% (+7)

REMAIN: 42% (-2)

The trend continues, another swing to Leave…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Leave 6 Points Ahead With Ipsos Mori

bad-news

LEAVE: 53% (+10)

REMAIN: 47% (-10)

HUGE swing from last month…

Other top lines via the Standard:

  • only 17% believe Osborne’s £4,300 figure
  • half believe Vote Leave’s £350 million figure
  • immigration is the key issue, cited by one in three
[…]

+ READ MORE +

ComRes: Remain Lead Crumbles

bad-newsLeave: 45% (+4)

Remain: 46% (-6)

Remain’s 11 point lead last month disappears…

Via The Sun
[…]

+ READ MORE +

TNS: Leave 7 Points Ahead

LEAVE LEAD

After yesterday’s gold standard ICM online and phone polls showing a robust Leave lead, TNS have released new figures showing 47% for Out and 40% for In. This means Leave are now ahead seven points – higher than any poll since YouGov’s nine point lead for Out in February. […]

+ READ MORE +

The Sun Comes Out For Brexit

The Sun backs Brexit:

“The EU cannot reform.

Remain has conducted a deceitful campaign. It has been nasty, cynical, personally abusive and beneath the dignity of Britain.

Our country has a glorious history.

This is our chance to make Britain even greater, to recapture our democracy, to preserve the values and culture we are rightly proud of.

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Andrew Cooper’s Misplaced Arrogance

Andrew Cooper is the PM’s pollster and he is fanatically pro-EU. His Twitter feed is something to behold.

Yes, Guido remembers that it was Andrew Cooper’s polling firm Populus which built a super-clever model of all the polling data for the general election and concluded there was just a 0.5% of a Tory majority.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Swing to Status Quo Scenario

Leavers are optimistic, Brexiteering Tory MPs really do believe they can do it, yet Remainers still think they’ll win. Neck and neck polls are giving both sides hope. Peter Kellner – a Europhile Labour supporting pollster  – has written a piece which tugs at a nagging doubt for Guido.[…]

+ READ MORE +



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