A three-point drop for the Tories since last week puts them virtually neck-and-neck with Reform in the fight for second place in YouGov’s latest political intention polling. Music to the ears of No10…
Electoral Calculus’s latest prediction gives Labour an 80-seat majority from just 28.1% of the vote, were an election to be held tomorrow. The same 365-seat win as the Tories under Boris in 2019…
The Tories would win 128 seats on 21.4%. Reform, despite polling 21.3%, is pushed into fourth place on seats with 57, behind the LibDems on 60. The model gives Labour a 44% chance of an outright majority and an 83% chance of being the largest party. The usual health warnings about polls apply. But Number 10 is looking closely at these numbers just like everyone else…
A bloody battle for second place…
Still a close heat between Labour and Reform at the top:
Reform: 25% (+4 from 20-21 Sep)
Labour: 24% (+1)
Conservatives: 19% (-2)
LibDems: 12% (=)
Greens: 11% (-3)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
SNP: 2% (=)
The Greens have taken their joint lowest share in YouGov’s tracker this year. Just weeks before Holborn and St Pancras constituents deliver their verdict on Zack Polanski…
YouGov’s first MRP since Burnham became PM projects a hung Parliament, with Labour the largest party on 241 seats. 85 short of a majority and down 170 on 2024…
The Tories take 130, and Reform come third on 123. A year ago, the same model had Reform on 311 and the Tories fourth on 45. A year is an eternity in politics…
Labour’s lead evaporates on vote share, where the party sits on 24% to Reform’s 22% and the Conservatives’ 21%. FPTP can produce wild results when the vote share is so close like this. A few votes here, a few votes there make all the difference…
The latest from YouGov:
All within the margin of error of their previous polling…
Lucy Powell told Sky News that the Ed Miliband-Russell Brand interview happened in part because the ‘social media age’ had not begun by 2015:
“Look, I mean, he approached the Labour Party, he approached the campaign team, and we’re in very different times now. We weren’t in the social media age at the time – where you could maybe search things up and see allegations about somebody at the time. and as I say, if there was any suggestion at all, we were dealing with someone who was a known sexual predator at the time, then, of course, you know, no one would have done that. But as I say, he was a well known public figure. Lots of people from Hollywood to the BBC to many others gave this person a very, very powerful platform. And we didn’t know at the time, unfortunately. It was a different era.”