Tories Lead By 17 Points

Guido is getting a little worried that Labour is bottoming too soon for a proper general election wipe-out. Tories up three points with YouGov, Labour down two, 17 points behind…

‘Shy’ Tories Actually Just Busy, Labour Voters Home More

It is often said half-teasingly that canvassers and pollsters are more likely to meet Labour voters than Tories because Tory voters are still at work. Now there is empirical evidence for the claim. Professor John Curtice, perhaps the only pollster with his reputation intact after he called the 2015 election, says there is no such thing as “shy” Tories skewing polls, they are just “busy“. Curtice’s study found that if polls were based on people who answered the door on a first visit, Labour would be six points ahead. If polls were based on those who needed three to six visits before answering, the Tories had an 11 point lead. His conclusion: Labour voters were more likely to be at home rather than out at work.

“Conservatives are just simply more difficult to get hold of. There is an availability bias. People who you can get hold of first time round, who say, ‘oh yes come in’ are disproportionately Labour voters. The people you can easily get hold of are not representative.”

As the old joke goes, the Tory voters really were still at work…

Polling Died in the Margin of Error

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Pollsters called the British general election wrong, they called Brexit very wrong and now they have got the US election wrong. Apologists for polling can talk about margin’s of error, probabilities and the difficulties of reaching the disaffected parts of the population. They can cling to irrelevant popular vote share qualifications. The fact is the industry has failed to call the right result, a hat-trick of fail.

With all their PhDs, data models and 99% confidence levels they missed it – again. This will of course give heart to Corbynistas who dont believe their hero has a double digit deficit against the Tories. Madame Le Pen will be measuring up the curtains for the Élysée Palace and no one will be paying much attention to pollsters prognostications. Gut instinct is back in fashion…

Zac Has 27 Point Lead With Standard/BMG

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A BMG survey for the Evening Standard suggests Richmond Park isn’t as close as the bookies suggest…

Poll Puts Nuttall Way Ahead

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Forget the spin, Nuttall is going to win according to polling of councillors by Matthew Goodwin. His support is greater than all the other declared candidates combined. Despite Raheem running a characteristically energetic and noisy campaign he is in a distant third place…leader-ukip-poll

Kassam is optimistic about his noisy online campaign’s reach and the rhetorical backing of Arron Banks turning into financial, and more importantly, organising muscle. There is a call centre owned by Banks in Bristol that could be used to his advantage. Assuming the ever fluid rules of the NEC don’t prohibit its use…

UPDATE: Taking a leaf out of Trump’s playbook, Raheem is questioning the sample size of the poll and whining that the media is lying, despite linking to the source, where it clearly says “we surveyed nearly 150 Ukip local councillors and 91 replied”. That is a representative survey of 1 in 5 of UKIP’s councillors nationally…

Early Election Prospects

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Theresa May’s poll ratings are stratospheric compared to Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers. YouGov’s latest opinion poll has Corbyn on a net approval rating of -40. May is on +31. That means Corbyn is -71 behind the Prime Minister. Guido can’t recall a bigger margin this century.

Downing Street briefs openly and privately that there will be no early election – despite an 18% lead with Ipsos Mori – yet the nagging doubt remains. What could be the catalyst for a change of attitude is losing the Brexit court case being pursued by die-hard Remainers. This constitutional conundrum could be solved by winning a mandate, possibly even a mandate to negotiate without publicly revealing the details of the government’s negotiating strategy. This may prove very tempting to Theresa May with the small majority she owes to Cameron.

According to the latest projection, based on the old boundaries, May would gain a 40-seat majority and unstoppable momentum for Brexit. It seems likely that if the Remainiacs win their court battle, they will lose the war…

Tories Lead By 18 Points

ipsos

Theresa May’s Miliband-esque economics and ‘Kippy immigration rhetoric cleans up Labour and UKIP votes…

Tories Lead By 17 Points

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The joint highest ever Tory lead recorded by ICM, who have been doing these polls since 1992. Even the Greens are surging…

Voters Back Naming & Shaming

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This will not please Labour MPs – most of their voters back the government’s plans to force companies to report how many foreign workers they employ. In fact 59% of the population is in favour, even LibDem voters are in favour.[…] Read the rest

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Progressive Majority Update

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The noisy progressives in our public life are forever claiming there is a “progressive majority” in Britain. More evidence from YouGov today that they are wrong. The progressive majority is a delusion[…] Read the rest

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Tories Lead by 14 Points

CON LEAD

The Tories’ lead over Labour is holding strong, as a gold standard survey from ICM for the Guardian reveals a 14 point gap between the parties. When these figures are plugged into Electoral Calculus’s seat calculator, they project a Conservative majority of 367 seats, next to Labour’s 195 – a drop of 35.[…] Read the rest

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Corbyn Leads Smith By 24 Points

POLL

Corbyn is beating Smith by 62% to 38% with YouGov, a lead of 24 points.

Labour leadership breakdown-01 (540x270)

Incidentally #Traingate encouraged people planning to vote for Jezza, 18% said the events had given them a more positive view of the leader, compared to just 5% who said it had given them a more negative view.[…] Read the rest

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Labour MPs Love Theresa May As Well

THERESA MAY MOST IMPRESSIVE MPS

It’s not just Labour’s former advisers who like Theresa May – their MPs think she’s impressive too. Theresa May was deemed “most impressive parliamentarian” by no less than 35% of Labour MPs, putting her second on the leadership table only to be beaten by Cameron in an Ipsos MORI poll of members.[…] Read the rest

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#TrainGate: Labour Voters Trust Corbyn

CORBYN TRAINGATE YOUGOV

Labour voters showed their trust in Corbyn in a recent YouGov poll on TrainGate. 39% of current Labour voters believe Corbyn’s version of events – that there were no unreserved seats available – compared to 34% believing Virgin’s story. 44% think Corbyn was being dishonest but only 36% of Labour voters think that his dishonesty matters.[…] Read the rest

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4% of Jewish Labour Movement Backs Corbyn

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Jezza’s “Zionist” problem…[…] Read the rest

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Dave Most Popular PM Since Maggie

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Until the referendum at least Cameron was the Tories’ best electoral asset and that is still reflected in his polling numbers – YouGov finds he is the most popular PM since Maggie. Blair remains Labour’s most/only successful PM in recent memory.[…] Read the rest

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