Mixed messages abound from pollsters, here is another one: a Mail/BPIX poll suggests that the biggest Tory weakness is a lack of a clear message.  Labour’s key attack spin repeats endlessly ‘the same old Tories’ and ‘Osborne is too inexperienced‘ lines. Voters don’t think these issues are problems to the extent that they don’t know what the Tories stand for at the election.

Look at what would make voters more likely to vote Tory, traditional tougher messages on crime and immigration.  Tax and spending cuts would also sway voters.

The Tory detox period is over, voters want the traditional medicine to cure the nation’s ills…

Frustration with politicians is rightly at an all time high. Though about ten points ahead there is still no really coherent ideology from the Conservatives. No one is quite sure in what direction the chaotic and shambolic Downing St operation is going to go next, the whole thing is a mess. Guido normally leaves the psephology to Political Betting but he noted with some interest the figures buried in the latest YouGov data.

25% of people compared to 23% think that Labour chop and change too much and are more incoherent than the Tories. However 34% think they are both rubbish. 36% reckon neither party is led by people of any ability. Hardly a ringing endorsement. Looks like the stay at homes have it.

YouGov’s poll for the Sun found that if Mr Brown was replaced, 19% would be more likely to vote Labour, compared to 14% who said they would be more likely to back the party if he stayed on. 

That’s why CCHQ wants Gordon where he is…

YouGov polled 4,167 British adults on January 5 & 6.

YouGov’s poll for the Sun was obviously taken this was before today’s fun and games…

On his blog Bad Al Campbell argues that Dave hasn’t sealed the deal with the electorate thus; “December 5, 1996, Gallup poll. Labour 59. Tories 22. Now that’s what I call a lead. And they’re nowhere near it, because they have not sealed the deal, because they’re not serious on policy, because they haven’t changed much, and because a lot of people don’t really like them.”

Bad Al is really grasping with this line of spin. Labour are 19% behind in the polls; suggesting that if people don’t really like the Tories, they must despise Labour. The voters have come to a settled view of Gordon – that he is a useless weirdo. You can’t spin your way out of that…

Note that Labour’s number drops back before the end of their conference, immediately after Brown’s speech.  In contrast the speeches of Clegg and Cameron lifted their respective party’s numbers.  He is a Jonah for the Labour Party and the country…

Let the bloodletting begin…

With YouGov polling that the Tories are still seen as more trusted with the NHS than Labour, the Guardian/ICM poll has another glaring result:

Asked, regardless of individual party preferences, whether a Tory government under David Cameron, or a Labour one under Gordon Brown, would be best for Britain 37% of people who voted Labour in 2005 – now think Cameron would be best, only 31% back Brown.

The Conservatives lead Labour among all social classes and in all regions…

If those numbers were true in any other British political party they would just get rid of the leader. The Labour Party has lost the collective will to win and turned into a horde of lemmings…

The BBC is viewed by many right-wingers as the broadcasting arm of the Guardianistas.  The Beeboids argue that this is unfair, and that the BBC is an unbiased, objective, public service broadcaster.  The BBC and the Guardian jointly sponsored an ICM survey into public opinion about the Iraq war.  Guido can’t recall a time when the BBC has got into bed with a newspaper like this – imagine the uproar if the BBC had co-sponsored a poll about immigration with the Daily Mail.    Birds of a feather flock together?

Yesterday’s Mindtracker for PMQs was very interesting datawise for political geeks, over a thousand people (1,150 people between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m.) twiddled their knobs online, so the poll is statistically valid. In comparison Frank Luntz typically has only 30 people polled in a room.  Watch the video above to see how people responded in realtime.  The chart below shows how viewers scored the PMQs exchange at key points:

Overall yesterday was a win for William Hague. Crucially voters who defined themselves as being in the centre scored the contest as a win for Hague, even those who defined themselves as being on the left tended to think that Hague won the argument.  If you want to drill down the full analysis and get a look at a bigger chart it is all here.

Next week following PMQs the experiment will run across a number of blogs from across the spectrum.  Will be very interesting to compare differing responses from different readerships…