Survation: Farage 11 Points Ahead in Thanet

A much-needed boost for UKIP after previous polls showing Farage trailing in the seat…

UPDATE: Andrew Cooper, boss at rival pollsters Populus and late of Downing Street, says Survation has screwed up the data:

UPDATE II: Survation restate their position on past voting intention methodology – implicitly saying that it is in fact Andrew Cooper who doesn’t understand the data. Pointing out that 20% of a constituency churns between general elections.  We’ll find out which methodology works best on May 8…

POLL: Should Rifkind Resign From Intelligence Select Committee?


Should Sir Malcolm Rifkind stand down to spend more time with the lifestyle to which he aspires?

Green Party Surge is Cashless

donations-q4-2014

According to the Electoral Commission the parties received donations totaling:

  • Conservative Party – £8,345,687
  • Labour Party – £7,163,988
  • Liberal Democrats – £3,038,500
  • UK Independence Party (UKIP) – £1,505,055
  • Green Party – £248,520

Which means the Green surge is cashless, Labour having almost 30 times as their more left-wing rivals whereas the Tories have less than 5 times as much as UKIP. LibDem finances are doing considerably better than their polling would suggest…

Tories Open Up 4 Point Lead With ICM

Screen Shot 2015-02-16 at 13.19.39

ICM were the most accurate pollsters in 2010.

This could shift the narrative this week…

 

Mellow Yellow Numbers

Last year Guido reported on the concern of close Clegg family friends, who were worried the Deputy Prime Minister was ‘in a really bad place’. Despite Cleggy claiming he is far chirpier than his demeanor let on, today’s Survation poll of his Sheffield seat makes for grim reading:

LAB 33% (+17), LD 23% (-30), CON 22% (-2)

Even though this union funded poll is not weighted to take into account previous voting intentions, that ten point Labour lead will be eye-watering for Lib Dem strategists.

Nationally the Tories lead by a point:

And the LibDems a point behind the Greens…

Jim On The Run

Jim Murphy has pulled out of a public appearance today, after the McAshcroft poll pointed to a total rout for the party north of the border. Guido is told that Scottish Labour hope to ‘reschedule’ a stunt that would have their leader selling copies of the Big Issue for the day. Jim will have the opportunity to do so full time at this rate…

Meanwhile, here is the party’s mature response to utter Caledonian clusterf*ck. You would never have thought they’re a bunch of former NUS chumps:

Yeah, retreat to that comfort zone. That will solve everything.

Poll: Both Alexanders Set to Lose Seats to SNP

In what appears to be a premature data dump of Lord Ashcroft’s much anticipated Scotland polling, Danny Alexander is predicted to lose his seat at the election:

Screen Shot 2015-02-03 at 23.50.33

As is Douglas Alexander:

Screen Shot 2015-02-03 at 23.53.41

Not Great for Alexanders…

Ashcroft Focus Group: Cameron is Like Dick Dastardly

Lord Ashcroft has asked a focus group which cartoon character they think the party leaders most resemble:

Ed Miliband is “Elmer Fudd, in perennial but fruitless pursuit of the Prime Ministerial wabbit”…

Two Graphs Which Show How Greens Are Splitting the Left

Guido’s Green Party poll tracker is back today as Natalie Bennett’s party surge onto 10% with YouGov, an all time high. The split in the left is clear: Labour slump to 30% this morning, a five year low, leaving the […]

Plummeting Public Trust in Lefty NGOs

Edelman has published its annual “trust barometer”, sampling a massive 27,000 people on how they rate politicians, industries and organisations on honesty. The stand out figure is the huge drop in trust for leftist activists disguised as do-gooders: NGOs. […]

Greens on 11% in Latest Ashcroft Poll

Big leap for the Greens in this afternoon’s Ashcroft poll. Both Tories and Labour under 30%…[…]

72% Say Let Greens in Leaders Debate

How much is Dave’s “chicken” debate demand to let the Greens take part hurting him with voters? A YouGov/Sun poll today finds 7 in 10 agree with the PM that Natalie Bennett should be allowed in. Meanwhile, overnight:

Guido […]



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Quote of the Day

Adam Spiegel, producer of Nazi themed “The Producers” musical says…

“Margate seemed a perfect place to start the promotion. I’m disappointed but not entirely surprised to see that UKIP are trying to hitch a publicity ride on the back of the show.”

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