Tories 12% Ahead

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Tories 12% ahead and UKIP still holding on to third place.

If anyone believes polls any more…

Greek Poll Has “No” Side Ahead

greek-no

Greece looks likely to reject the creditors’ bailout according to the latest poll published today. Asked how they would vote in a referendum – assuming it goes ahead – 46% said they back the “no” vote, down from 57%, with “yes” up to 37% from 30%. Undecideds at 17% may yet say “yes” to the austerity status quo…

*Pollster ProRata and published in the daily newspaper Efimerida ton Syntaktonthis morning.

Ipsos Mori: Stewart Lewis Polling Surprisingly Well

stewart-lewisJust to see if the British public is paying attention pollsters Ipsos Mori added in a fake name to the leadership race survey. “Stewart Lewis” is giving Jeremy Corbyn a run for his money and the dummy name polls better amongst Labour supporters than the general public. This supports Guido’s long held view that Labour supporters are less informed and more stupid than the rest of us… 

Poll Finds Pollsters Less Trusted Than Bankers

pollster-poll

This poll from PLMR and ComRes reveals of 17% of people trust pollsters, whilst 18% trust bankers. That seems a very small difference well within the margin of error. In fact did no one at PLMR see the paradox in asking pollsters to find out how much pollsters are trusted? Politician is still by far the least trusted profession. Which shows people ain’t stupid…

Survey Shows Voters Think Labour Too Left-Wing

labour too left wing

In a survey for the Sunday Times 40% of voters think the next Labour leader should move closer to the centre. Even 35% of Labour voters think they should move to the centre though a worrying 30% think Labour should move to the left. A 30% rump led by the likes of Owen Jones, who is like one of those Japanese soldiers marooned on a pacific island who refuses to surrender, ranting against austerity in his Guardian column…

Official: Lazy Socialists Lost the Election

Most of the analysis of the pollsters’ collective nightmare has blamed the ‘Shy Tories’ – people who planned on voting Tory but didn’t tell the pollsters. Ipsos MORI have a different theory: that ‘Lazy Labour’ supporters not turning up to vote skewed the numbers.

The final MORI poll suggested 12.5 million people would vote Tory, just ahead of 12.2 million voting Labour.

They weren’t too far off on the Tory number – 11.3 million voted Tory on the day – but some 3 million Labour supporters went missing. Where did they go? MORI chief Ben Page says:

“we think not voted. Predicted turnout 82% day before. Was only 66%”

Their analysis suggests it was young left-wing voters not turning out on the day that explains the difference. The Russell Brand effect…

Exit Poll: CON 316 LAB 239 LD 10 SNP 58 UKIP 2

BUT this is what YouGov say:

Seats Sweepstake Prize Competition

Adam Boulton has made his own forecast:

Log in and record your prediction down below in the comments and the most accurate prediction will get sent some Guido paraphernalia and goodies that we have around. Predict away…

Guido’s Poll of Final Polls

Here is Guido’s poll of final polls, averaging out the final numbers from Populus, TNS, Opinium, ICM, Panelbase, YouGov, ComRes, Survation, Ashcroft and Ipsos MORI:

Funnily enough they have all converged. The Tories need them to be wrong…[…]

+ READ MORE +

TONIGHT’S FINAL POLLS

YouGov have polled 10,000 people:

The final ComRes poll:

And Survation:

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Final ‘Gold Standard’ ICM Poll

Labour up three on last week. Not good for the Tories…[…]

+ READ MORE +

The Final Polls: Labour on 30% With Ashcroft

Tomorrow is the big day for most pollsters, with seven companies releasing their final numbers before the election. Today it is the turn of Populus and Lord Ashcroft:

Populus: CON 34, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13, GREEN 5

Ashcroft:[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Liz Kendall is asked by Tom Newton Dunn if she would ever ban the Sun from one of her press conferences:

“If you stripped naked and ran in front of me, Tom, I might have second thoughts about it, but apart from that, no.”

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