Thursday, December 18, 2014

Labour Three Points Behind Tories in New Ipsos Mori Poll

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Greens 2 Points Ahead of LibDems For First Time

Labour and UKIP types talking down the Green Surge should beware today’s YouGov/Sun poll. For the first time the Greens are two points clear of the LibDems, with Natalie Bennett’s party hotting up to 8% and Nick Clegg’s melting away to 6%. As you can see from the full numbers in Guido’s tracker, the Greens’ poll rating is rising faster than the anthropogenic concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere…

Friday, December 12, 2014

Labour Oppositions Never Gain Ground in Final Six Months

Fascinating analysis on ConHome showing how Labour’s poll ratings six months out from elections have historically compared with the final election result. Guido’s graph above illustrates how “Labour consistently end up winning fewer votes in the general election than the polls would have suggested six months in advance”. Lewis Baston concludes: “Governments gain more often than oppositions: if my Conservative-supporting readers want some comfort, there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months”. Something for Tory MPs to cling onto going into next year…

Thursday, December 11, 2014

YouGov/Sun Poll Tracker: Greens in Fourth Again

The YouGov website does not include the Green Party in their voting intentions graphs, so Guido has decided to give them their deserved billing. Once again the Greens are in fourth today, knocking the LibDems down into fifth. As you can see above this is starting to look like a trend. You can read the numbers in full here. Natalie Bennett says “a grassroots green revolution is under way”…

Poll: Labour Won’t Deliver “Programme British People Want”

How many relaunches is that now? Ed Miliband’s big speech on the economy today is being tipped by sympathetic quarters of the press as showing Labour are serious about reducing the deficit, so at least there’s no chance he will forget to mention it this time. Yet Ed is also going to attack the Tories for planning to cut spending to “1930s levels”, insisting “That is not our programme, that will never be our programme, and I do not believe it is the programme the British people want”. Just one problem: a ComRes poll for ITV out last night shows that this is the “programme the British people want”. 33% support cutting spending to 1930s levels, 26% oppose. Another great relaunch success…

Friday, December 5, 2014

Official: No One Cares About #CameronMustGo

The less reality-based elements of the loony left are still banging on at the ‘biased’ media failing to cover a hashtag calling for the PM to step down. Today’s Populus poll offers a more likely reason: no one cares. Not one person in the real world thought it was a story this week:

The final proof it was never news…

GREEN SURGE: LibDems Slump to Fifth Place

Two polls in two consecutive days now have the Greens ahead of the LibDems, with YouGov now putting Clegg in fifth place. Natalie Bennett’s party meanwhile rise from 7% to 8% this morning. The Staggers ask why the LibDems aren’t panicking, though Labour should also be watching the Green Surge with concern. It’s their votes the Greens are coming for…

Public Think Liberal Elite Media Biased Against UKIP
54% Believe Politico-Media Class Trying to Stop UKIP

Media bias  you gov

Stitch-up2[1]Fascinating research from YouGov, confirms what Guido has always believed, you can’t fool the public all the time. The mainstream media’s campaign to demonise UKIP is recognised by the public to be a result of a biased media. UKIP have the Tory press and the left-wing papers / BBC against them, so it is hardly surprising that the public recognise the bias against that party most clearly. It is widely accepted by political strategists that the over-the-top press campaign against UKIP during the European elections in May was so transparently biased that it had no negative effect and probably counter-productively bolstered UKIP’s vote.

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time…

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Osborne’s Poll Ratings Slide
As Conservative Lead on the Economy Grows

As Osborne delivers his Autumn Statement today, a YouGov poll for the Sun finds his personal ratings have dropped from -3 to -8 over the last nine months. Optimism that the economy will improve is down from 39% to 25%, while pessimism is up from 23% to 32%. The Chancellor’s credibility will hardly be helped this afternoon when he announces OBR numbers confirming he has missed his deficit forecasts and that there is a £50 billion black hole in public finances, when in the same speech he pledges:

  • £3 billion extra cash for the NHS
  • £15 billion for road improvement infrastructure spending
  • £400 million extra to the British Business Bank
  • £500 million of new lending guaranteed
  • No fresh cuts

Cynical Neo-Keynesianism nevertheless appears to be paying electoral dividends for the Conservatives, proving once again that voters prefer jam today to jam tomorrow. This generation of voters prefers to put the burden for its profligacy on the next generation…

osborne-poll

The Times leader puts it plainly: “What is clear is that he has decided to risk what progress has been made towards repairing the nation’s finances on an electorally inspired spending spree that will have to be funded… at least partly with debt.” Douglas Carswell has a point when he says Osborne will today deliver Gordon Brown’s 18th Autumn Statement

Friday, November 28, 2014

Poll: Public Backs Brexit if Cam Plan Fails

A poll for the Standard tonight finds Londoners currently want to stay in the EU by 45% to 37%, but the numbers reverse almost completely if Cameron’s renegotiation attempts fail. No pressure…

UPDATE: And a ComRes/ITV poll finds if a referendum was held tomorrow the UK would leave:


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