Progressive Majority Update

burka

The noisy progressives in our public life are forever claiming there is a “progressive majority” in Britain. More evidence from YouGov today that they are wrong. The progressive majority is a delusion

Tories Lead by 14 Points

CON LEAD

The Tories’ lead over Labour is holding strong, as a gold standard survey from ICM for the Guardian reveals a 14 point gap between the parties. When these figures are plugged into Electoral Calculus’s seat calculator, they project a Conservative majority of 367 seats, next to Labour’s 195 – a drop of 35. A messy leadership contest next to May’s continuing honeymoon means this gap could grow…

Corbyn Leads Smith By 24 Points

POLL

Corbyn is beating Smith by 62% to 38% with YouGov, a lead of 24 points.

Labour leadership breakdown-01 (540x270)

Incidentally #Traingate encouraged people planning to vote for Jezza, 18% said the events had given them a more positive view of the leader, compared to just 5% who said it had given them a more negative view.

He’s on course for a bigger mandate than last time round. Jez we can…

Labour MPs Love Theresa May As Well

THERESA MAY MOST IMPRESSIVE MPS

It’s not just Labour’s former advisers who like Theresa May – their MPs think she’s impressive too. Theresa May was deemed “most impressive parliamentarian” by no less than 35% of Labour MPs, putting her second on the leadership table only to be beaten by Cameron in an Ipsos MORI poll of members. While May was deemed impressive by more ministers, the ex-cabinet ministers sitting bitterly on the backbenches put Dave ahead in the overall stakes by just 1% – to 26%.

Labour’s strongest contender was unsurprisingly Hilary Benn, coming joint sixth with 6%, but was beaten to a top five place by Angus Robertson. Labour MPs went mostly unloved, with Tom Watson and Dan Jarvis gaining the support of just one MP each (possibly themselves?). One Conservative joker backed Corbyn for the title. If Labour MPs like May so much, why don’t they just…

#TrainGate: Labour Voters Trust Corbyn

CORBYN TRAINGATE YOUGOV

Labour voters showed their trust in Corbyn in a recent YouGov poll on TrainGate. 39% of current Labour voters believe Corbyn’s version of events – that there were no unreserved seats available – compared to 34% believing Virgin’s story. 44% think Corbyn was being dishonest but only 36% of Labour voters think that his dishonesty matters. On the stump supporters argue the attack by offshore privateer Branson helps Corbyn with activists…

4% of Jewish Labour Movement Backs Corbyn

jewish

Jezza’s “Zionist” problem…

Dave Most Popular PM Since Maggie

pms

Until the referendum at least Cameron was the Tories’ best electoral asset and that is still reflected in his polling numbers – YouGov finds he is the most popular PM since Maggie. Blair remains Labour’s most/only successful PM in recent memory. Gordon languishes in last, just 9% describe him as “good“. The former Prime Mentalist’s score with Labour voters is almost the same as Dave’s, Brown has a 19% favourable rating compared to Cameron’s 15%. Lady T still streets ahead of everyone…

Voters Don’t Regret Brexit

POLL

Given the coverage from parts of the Remainstream media over the last few weeks, they’d have you believe millions of Leave voters were having buyers’ remorse and now regret voting for Brexit. A new poll out from YouGov quashes that theory – the Leave vote is still ahead. Someone should tell Oily Smith and David Lammy they would lose a second referendum…

Hillary Leads By 7 Points, Melania Trump Girl-on-Girl

Melania

There are two major stories stateside today: Hillary Clinton has taken a 7 point lead in the polls and nude photos have emerged of Melania Trump in some racy girl-on-girl action. Hillary leads 46-39 in a new CBS national poll, a convention bounce after she was tied with the Donald last week.[…]

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Theresa May Smiling as Tory Polls Improving

poll icm july

When run through Election Polling’s UK swingometer, ICM’s figures today show that Labour is facing down the barrel of May’s gun next election. If these numbers become a uniform swing, the Tories are likely to take 41 seats from Labour and two from the LibDems, with a further surprise win in SNP held Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.[…]

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Trump 5% Ahead of Clinton

nate-trump

As Hillary Clinton prepares to woo America at the Democratic Convention, Trump is 5% ahead in a CNN national poll and on a state-by-state forecast basis according to Nate Silver.

This is the picture now. Hillary has the advantage that most of the press and broadcast networks will be for her and despite boos at the convention from Bernie supporters – after he sold out and backed her – she will get 90% of her party’s activist support.[…]

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Corbyn Miles Ahead, Eagle and Smith Crash and Burn

Jeremy Corbyn is more popular than ever with Labour members and is set to comfortably retain the leadership, while Angela Eagle and particularly Owen Smith have crashed and burned, according to a new YouGov poll. 54% of Labour members eligible to vote say Jez will be their first preference, way ahead of nearest challenger Eagle, who is second on 21%.[…]

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Labour Voters Agree Corbyn Would be “A Good Prime Minister”

eagle corbyn stats

Topline figures from Ipsos MORI’s July political monitor might have made gloomy reading for Corbyn supporters. When asked whether or not they agree that Corbyn has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister, only 23% agreed, with 68% disagreeing, 6% impartial, and 3% “Don’t Know” (Eagle scored 21%, 40%, 15%, and 24% respectively).[…]

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Without Boris, May Public’s Most Favoured Tory Leader

Fav-Rates

A new poll by Survation on behalf of the Constitutional Research Council tells you why people were calling Theresa May “Prime Minister” last night at the Spectator’s summer party. A poll of the general public has May as the only one with a significant positive favourability rating – Boris would have been the other.[…]

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Tory MPs Begin Voting, Gove’s Ratings Crushed

tory+leadership+pie

A long-term Gove loyalist told Guido yesterday that he hoped the Chilcot drama tomorrow will provide cover for his preferred candidate’s likely humiliation on Thursday. The miscalculation of the Boricide has been devastating for Gove’s campaign. The polite, good-humoured, fun Gove – popular across the party – is now seen as a ruthless Machiavellian bastard.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Boris and May Neck and Neck

poll

This is the much awaited Conservative Home poll of party members – Boris and T-May are neck and neck. May’s allies are confident she can win with the members. But Boris has the personality and was the hero of Brexit…[…]

+ READ MORE +



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George Osborne paraphrases Boris, telling the FT:

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