Poll Puts Nuttall Way Ahead


Forget the spin, Nuttall is going to win according to polling of councillors by Matthew Goodwin. His support is greater than all the other declared candidates combined. Despite Raheem running a characteristically energetic and noisy campaign he is in a distant third place…leader-ukip-poll

Kassam is optimistic about his noisy online campaign’s reach and the rhetorical backing of Arron Banks turning into financial, and more importantly, organising muscle. There is a call centre owned by Banks in Bristol that could be used to his advantage. Assuming the ever fluid rules of the NEC don’t prohibit its use…

UPDATE: Taking a leaf out of Trump’s playbook, Raheem is questioning the sample size of the poll and whining that the media is lying, despite linking to the source, where it clearly says “we surveyed nearly 150 Ukip local councillors and 91 replied”. That is a representative survey of 1 in 5 of UKIP’s councillors nationally…

Early Election Prospects


Theresa May’s poll ratings are stratospheric compared to Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers. YouGov’s latest opinion poll has Corbyn on a net approval rating of -40. May is on +31. That means Corbyn is -71 behind the Prime Minister. Guido can’t recall a bigger margin this century.

Downing Street briefs openly and privately that there will be no early election – despite an 18% lead with Ipsos Mori – yet the nagging doubt remains. What could be the catalyst for a change of attitude is losing the Brexit court case being pursued by die-hard Remainers. This constitutional conundrum could be solved by winning a mandate, possibly even a mandate to negotiate without publicly revealing the details of the government’s negotiating strategy. This may prove very tempting to Theresa May with the small majority she owes to Cameron.

According to the latest projection, based on the old boundaries, May would gain a 40-seat majority and unstoppable momentum for Brexit. It seems likely that if the Remainiacs win their court battle, they will lose the war…

Tories Lead By 18 Points


Theresa May’s Miliband-esque economics and ‘Kippy immigration rhetoric cleans up Labour and UKIP votes…

Tories Lead By 17 Points


The joint highest ever Tory lead recorded by ICM, who have been doing these polls since 1992. Even the Greens are surging…

Voters Back Naming & Shaming


This will not please Labour MPs – most of their voters back the government’s plans to force companies to report how many foreign workers they employ. In fact 59% of the population is in favour, even LibDem voters are in favour. This is the backlash from the years of uncontrolled immigration…

Progressive Majority Update


The noisy progressives in our public life are forever claiming there is a “progressive majority” in Britain. More evidence from YouGov today that they are wrong. The progressive majority is a delusion

Tories Lead by 14 Points


The Tories’ lead over Labour is holding strong, as a gold standard survey from ICM for the Guardian reveals a 14 point gap between the parties. When these figures are plugged into Electoral Calculus’s seat calculator, they project a Conservative majority of 367 seats, next to Labour’s 195 – a drop of 35. A messy leadership contest next to May’s continuing honeymoon means this gap could grow…

Corbyn Leads Smith By 24 Points


Corbyn is beating Smith by 62% to 38% with YouGov, a lead of 24 points.

Labour leadership breakdown-01 (540x270)

Incidentally #Traingate encouraged people planning to vote for Jezza, 18% said the events had given them a more positive view of the leader, compared to just 5% who said it had given them a more negative view.

He’s on course for a bigger mandate than last time round. Jez we can…

Labour MPs Love Theresa May As Well


It’s not just Labour’s former advisers who like Theresa May – their MPs think she’s impressive too. Theresa May was deemed “most impressive parliamentarian” by no less than 35% of Labour MPs, putting her second on the leadership table only to be beaten by Cameron in an Ipsos MORI poll of members.[…]


#TrainGate: Labour Voters Trust Corbyn


Labour voters showed their trust in Corbyn in a recent YouGov poll on TrainGate. 39% of current Labour voters believe Corbyn’s version of events – that there were no unreserved seats available – compared to 34% believing Virgin’s story. 44% think Corbyn was being dishonest but only 36% of Labour voters think that his dishonesty matters.[…]


4% of Jewish Labour Movement Backs Corbyn


Jezza’s “Zionist” problem…[…]


Dave Most Popular PM Since Maggie


Until the referendum at least Cameron was the Tories’ best electoral asset and that is still reflected in his polling numbers – YouGov finds he is the most popular PM since Maggie. Blair remains Labour’s most/only successful PM in recent memory.[…]


Voters Don’t Regret Brexit


Given the coverage from parts of the Remainstream media over the last few weeks, they’d have you believe millions of Leave voters were having buyers’ remorse and now regret voting for Brexit. A new poll out from YouGov quashes that theory – the Leave vote is still ahead. […]


Hillary Leads By 7 Points, Melania Trump Girl-on-Girl


There are two major stories stateside today: Hillary Clinton has taken a 7 point lead in the polls and nude photos have emerged of Melania Trump in some racy girl-on-girl action. Hillary leads 46-39 in a new CBS national poll, a convention bounce after she was tied with the Donald last week.[…]


Theresa May Smiling as Tory Polls Improving

poll icm july

When run through Election Polling’s UK swingometer, ICM’s figures today show that Labour is facing down the barrel of May’s gun next election. If these numbers become a uniform swing, the Tories are likely to take 41 seats from Labour and two from the LibDems, with a further surprise win in SNP held Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.[…]


Trump 5% Ahead of Clinton


As Hillary Clinton prepares to woo America at the Democratic Convention, Trump is 5% ahead in a CNN national poll and on a state-by-state forecast basis according to Nate Silver.

This is the picture now. Hillary has the advantage that most of the press and broadcast networks will be for her and despite boos at the convention from Bernie supporters – after he sold out and backed her – she will get 90% of her party’s activist support.[…]


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