How Would Party Leaders Spend Friday Night?

Lord Ashcroft’s focus group is back, this time asked how they think each party leader would spend a free Friday night:

Cameron: “get a helicopter to Cornwall” with Sam and the kids, or go “to his club” to engage in “mildly inappropriate banter with Conservative MPs and eight bottles of Cabernet Sauvignon”

Farage: go to the pub, possibly after a spot of fishing, or “to a French restaurant with his German wife to complain about immigration”

Clegg: would take his wife and children ten-pin bowling, or stay in with them to watch Great British Bake Off

Miliband: if he did not have a “posh dinner party” planned, would be playing with the train set some suspect he has in his loft, or spend the time “reading the opinion polls for something to grab onto”

But how many lofts does Ed have?

Tories Maintain Lead in “Gold Standard” 36% Poll

Looks like that Green surge has turned into a Green slump and the votes have gone back to Labour.

Labour up though in Guardian ICM.

 

Ashcroft Focus Group Tell Leaders to Go Back to School

The Ashcroft focus group is back and this time his Lordship has asked which job would each party leader be best suited to outside of politics:

Cameron: “a headmaster, or a company director in charge of things”

Farage: “a pub landlord, and a good one at that, or would run his own small but successful business”

Clegg: “probably something administrative or perhaps a supermarket store manager”

Miliband: “university professor”

Former Harvard lecturer Miliband shouldn’t have quit the day job…

Blue Dawn: Is Lynton’s Late Swing Starting?

UKPR-3-5-15

Is that tiny blue uptick on the right hand edge of this graph the first sign of the long awaited swing to the Tories reportedly forecast by Lynton Crosby? This is the six month rolling 5 day average of all the pollsters* – based on UK Polling Report data. The uptick is a result of the last seven YouGov polls showing three Tory leads, three draws and only one Labour lead. Pollster Anthony Wells reckons “something may indeed be afoot”…

Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll is awaited, more eagerly than usual, for confirmation of a trend. Blip or shift?

UPDATE 22:30: False dawn, maybe?

*Ashcroft, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos-Mori, Opinium, Populus, Survation, TNS-BMRB and YouGov.

Ashcroft Scottish Marginal Polling Presentation

537 Pollsters, Academics and Journalists Call the Election

psa-experts

The Political Studies Association has asked 465 academics, 45 journalists and 27 pollsters to predict the election outcome and they concluded:

Our inaugural expert survey points towards a tight election, in which Labour is marginal favourite to come out ahead in terms of seats – but where the gap between the parties in terms of both predicted votes and seats is so small as to make it pretty much neck-and-neck.

What is technically known as “a toss up”…

Download full report here.

Survation: Farage 11 Points Ahead in Thanet

A much-needed boost for UKIP after previous polls showing Farage trailing in the seat…

UPDATE: Andrew Cooper, boss at rival pollsters Populus and late of Downing Street, says Survation has screwed up the data:

UPDATE II: Survation restate their position on past voting intention methodology – implicitly saying that it is in fact Andrew Cooper who doesn’t understand the data. Pointing out that 20% of a constituency churns between general elections.  We’ll find out which methodology works best on May 8…

POLL: Should Rifkind Resign From Intelligence Select Committee?


Should Sir Malcolm Rifkind stand down to spend more time with the lifestyle to which he aspires?

Green Party Surge is Cashless

donations-q4-2014

According to the Electoral Commission the parties received donations totaling:

  • Conservative Party – £8,345,687
  • Labour Party – £7,163,988
  • Liberal Democrats – £3,038,500
  • UK Independence Party (UKIP) – £1,505,055
  • Green Party – £248,520

Which means the Green surge is cashless, Labour […]

+ READ MORE +

Tories Open Up 4 Point Lead With ICM

Screen Shot 2015-02-16 at 13.19.39

ICM were the most accurate pollsters in 2010.

This could shift the narrative this week…

 […]

+ READ MORE +

Mellow Yellow Numbers

Last year Guido reported on the concern of close Clegg family friends, who were worried the Deputy Prime Minister was ‘in a really bad place’. Despite Cleggy claiming he is far chirpier than his demeanor let on, today’s Survation[…]

+ READ MORE +

Jim On The Run

Jim Murphy has pulled out of a public appearance today, after the McAshcroft poll pointed to a total rout for the party north of the border. Guido is told that Scottish Labour hope to ‘reschedule’ a stunt that would have […]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

David Cameron tells MPs after voting:

“Wouldn’t miss this for the world. Secret ballots very important. Remember the Chartists.”

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