CEBR Predicting London Led House Price Drop in 2015

cebr-house-price

CEBR’s Douglas McWilliams says “the London housing market is being hit by a double whammy of reduced domestic and overseas demand. Sterling appreciation since the start of 2013 means that London property is no longer as attractive an investment as it was a few years ago. In addition, fears of a future mansion tax are eroding the UK’s international safe haven status. This will bring down prices at the top end of the capital’s housing market.” House price apocalypse? Not really, the forecast 2.6% drop will be a pause for breath before the demographics reassert themselves…

SKETCH: Professor Krugman, Where’s the Shark?

Paul Krugman, the Nobel-prize-winning economist is in Oxford until mid-June as the Sanjaya Lall Visiting Professor in Development and Business.

The liberal Princeton/NY Times professor just delivered his inaugural lecture asking the question (the almost-rhetorical question) Do We Face Secular Stagnation?

It follows on from his books The Age of Diminished Expectation, the Return of Depression Economics and articles like Is Capitalism Too Productive? The Myth of Asia’s Miracle and – suggested title – What Are You Laughing At, Can’t You See the State We’re In?

His proposition is that the glory days are behind us, that each recession has been harder to get out of than the last, that we will have extended periods of low-to-no growth, and that under-employment will create “dreary lives” for large numbers of people – because politicians will not listen to him and his $300bn job-creation schemes.

If Labour can get him onto a stage with Ed Miliband, the election will be in the bag. For the Tories.

He talked about the impulses to “austerity” saying that it’s as though governments want to engineer a gratuitous recession in order to have a pre-election year boom, “like the Government has done here” (cosy laughter from the full-to-overflow hall).

Small, bearded, charming, Prof Krugman looks like the oceanographer in Jaws. Remember, that clever fellow, expert in his field, ran up and down the beach warning the pleasure-seekers there was a giant shark out there waiting to devour them.

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Even Labour MPs See Falling Unemployment, Economy Growing

comres-expectations

As the economy grows, Labour’s poll lead disappears…

UPDATE:  Note the 4% of Tories who think unemployment and economic growth are going to get worse are more pessimistic than their LibDem colleagues.

 

IMF Contemplating Mass Expropriation in €-Zone

IMF-exproriation

Christine Lagarde the French chief of the IMF narrowly escaped being charged recently. Her candidacy’s main cheerleader for the IMF was George Osborne, Guido had his doubts at the time. The IMF is searching for a solution for debt laden European states to stop the €uro collapsing. Stop spending more than you tax is considered naive – how will the ruling elites get re-elected if they stop bribing the electorate with their own children’s money? Option 6 in the IMF’s discussion paper on the subject is brutally straight-forward. The final act of financial repression is to steal from everyone who has savings with a 10% wealth tax.

You have been warned now – just like Cypriot political insiders were – don’t keep any capital in €urozone banks. The IMF argues that the element of surprise is essential for the success of a capital levy…

Brown’s Favourite Economist David Blanchflower Wrong Again Economist Who Advised Brown To Privatise, Ronald Coase R.I.P.

Yet another installment in the series of David Blanchflower’s Terrible Tips. The former Prime Mentalist’s favourite former appointee to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee got his faulty crystal ball out again at the end of March, predicting growth for the year of 0.2%. In April he said that a triple dip remains a real prospect. In May he nearly fell over laughing at the suggestion a recovery was in sight. He regularly predicted rising unemployment, when it fell. So did he fare any better this time round?

Well this week the OECD doubled its outlook for UK growth to 1.5%, now the OECD expects Britain to even outstrip Germany and France over 2013. What’s more, in the last quarter, the UK grew at an annualised healthy 4.5%, with growth across all sectors. The fastest for decades. Even Ed Balls now admits we are on the road to recovery…

Ronald Coase Obituary

David Blanchflower is a poor excuse for an economist, compared to Ronald Coase, who sadly died on September 2nd aged 102. The Nobel prize winner enjoys nowhere near as much fame as media-savvy left-wing economists like Blanchflower. Coase should be more famous because it was his idea originally to sell off radio spectrum rights, a policy idea which led to Gordon Brown raising £22.5 billion from the privatisation of the 3G spectrum. The greatest one-day privatisation ever seen in Britain, carried out by a socialist. That was genius… 

AP Changes Password

One hacked tweet yesterday and the DOW plunges 100 points, only to regain it all in a matter of minutes. The AP twitter account has been restored this afternoon, the offending tweet deleted, and normality returns to the markets…

Talking Balls

It was less than fifteen minutes after the GDP news was announced before Balls’ people started calling for more borrowing and spending on the back of the news:

Two hours later they have has managed to scramble together a line:

“A one-off boost from the Olympics is welcome. But it is no substitute for a plan to secure and sustain the strong recovery that Britain desperately needs if we are to create jobs, get the deficit down and make people better off.”

Balls chooses to simply ignore the ONS stating that it only 0.2 of the 1% change was down to the Olympics.

Funny how abnormalities are only considered when the growth is positive.

+++ GDP UP 1% +++ Above Expectations, GDP Flat Year-on-Year

David Blanchflower’s Terrible Tips

Whenever Gordon Brown’s favourite former appointee to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, David Blanchflower, makes a prediction, it’s probably a safe bet to expect the exact opposite to come true. Back in 2009 the out-of-luck economist looked into his evidently faulty crystal ball and predicted that unemployment would top 5 million if the Tories came into power.[…]

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Mugabenomics: Inflation in UK Higher than in Zimbabwe

Remember when Vince Cable warned that Quantitative Easing (QE) was “Mugabenomics”? Vince flip-flopped on that even before he joined the coalition. Guido remembers when George Osborne said “Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed.” In government Osborne has overseen the printing of more money than any other Chancellor in British history.[…]

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He's Still Jonah Brown

As we predicted beforehand, the Jonah effect wiped over 100 points off the value of the Dow and saw the NASDAQ experience its worst day since June. If you watch the video closely you’ll see that he even screwed up “ringing the bell” to open Wall Street.[…]

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Chuka Takes Cash From Casino Capitalist Tycoons to Party

Two-faced Chuka Umunna is forever banging on about the need for “responsible capitalism”. Chuka might be keen to bash the bankers in public, yet the latest update to the Register of Members’ Interests shows that the Streatham MP pocketed a generous donation of £6,030 from a financial services company to sponsor his summer party in July:

Realtime Analysis and News are better known to day traders and other running dogs of casino capitalism as RANsquawk, an extremely profitable online service set-up by City whizz-kids providing tips and rumours to traders.[…]

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ECB President Draghi Goes Comical Ali

Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, told a press conference following the meeting of the ECB Governing Council in Frankfurt this afternoon that “the euro is irreversible”. Asked by the media what he meant by that he exclaimed to much laughter “It stays, it stays, it stays.[…]

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Debt Bomb: Deficits and Dancing Girls [VIDEO]

Keynesian economics stripped bare…
[…]

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Simon Jenkins is uneasy about Quantitative Easing…

“The Bank of England quarterly bulletin is full of QE theology. Its report on a recent conference on the subject is pure angels on pinheads.”[…]

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Bank of England Still Artificially Lowballing Interest Rates

This morning the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet and in all likelihood order another £50 billion of Quantitative Easing, or money printing. This will again be used to buy government bonds, artifically holding down long term interest rates.[…]

+ READ MORE +



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