Guido’s Adam Cherry has trekked up to Makerfield ahead of the by-election. The full video is coming next week. Subscribe to Guido’s YouTube channel to be the first to see it…
Guido hears some Labour doorknockers who encounter Reform/Restore waverers in Makerfield – of which there are a few – are more than happy to suggest voting for Rupert Lowe’s party. With a grin…
Meanwhile Burnham outrider Dan Hodges is posting constantly about how strong the Restore vote is in the constituency. Labour house rag the New Statesman is assessing Lowe’s chances in the seat in light of his strong polling returns. It got 7% in a Times poll, enough to overtake Burnham when combined with Reform…
Everyone is at the same time having a field day with Reform candidate Robert Kenyon who, among other things, suggested Russia was right to take control of Crimea. Going well…
Reform’s internal polling suggests 163 Labour MPs (164 if poor Karl Turner is let back in) would lose their seats at the next election, including seven Cabinet ministers. Guido has the data…
Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy, Jonathan Reynolds, Pat McFadden, and even Angela Rayner are all under threat from Reform. David Lammy would lose to Polanksi’s Greens. The Tories would take Rachel Reeves’ seat. A bloodbath…
The polling is based on the votes cast at last week’s local elections. See the full list below. This list obviously only applies to areas that had elections last Thursday. The other half would be presumably just as bad. Labour MPs who aren’t on this list shouldn’t get too comfortable…
| # | MP & Seat | To | PP |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cabinet on the chopping block
|
|||
| 23 | CABINETLisa Nandy · Wigan | REF | -25.2 |
| 46 | CABINETJonathan Reynolds · Stalybridge and Hyde | REF | -21.2 |
| 53 | CABINETYvette Cooper · Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | REF | -19.8 |
| 54 | CABINETBridget Phillipson · Houghton and Sunderland South | REF | -19.6 |
| 62 | CABINETPat McFadden · Wolverhampton South East | REF | -18.3 |
| 127 | CABINETDavid Lammy · Tottenham | GRN | -7.7 |
| 152 | CABINETRachel Reeves · Leeds West and Pudsey | CON | -4.2 |
|
Biggest swings against Labour
|
|||
| 1 | Josh Newbury · Cannock Chase | REF | -43.1 |
| 2 | Sarah Edwards · Tamworth | REF | -41.8 |
| 3 | Chris Vince · Harlow | CON | -40.6 |
| 4 | Sonia Kumar · Dudley | REF | -37.6 |
| 5 | Matt Turmaine · Watford | LD | -35.7 |
| 6 | Leigh Ingham · Stafford | CON | -33.9 |
| 7 | Oliver Ryan · Burnley | REF | -33.3 |
| 8 | Fred Thomas · Plymouth Moor View | REF | -32.5 |
| 9 | David Williams · Stoke-on-Trent North | REF | -32.4 |
| 10 | Rachel Taylor · North Warwickshire and Bedworth | REF | -31.8 |
| 11 | Melanie Onn · Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | REF | -31.6 |
| 12 | MINStephen Morgan · Portsmouth South | LD | -29.8 |
| 13 | Richard Quigley · Isle of Wight West | REF | -29.7 |
| 14 | Andy MacNae · Rossendale and Darwen | REF | -28.5 |
| 15 | Jonathan Brash · Hartlepool | REF | -28.3 |
| 16 | Jonathan Hinder · Pendle and Clitheroe | REF | -28.1 |
| 17 | Mark Sewards · Leeds South West and Morley | REF | -27.5 |
| 18 | Jodie Gosling · Nuneaton | REF | -27.3 |
| 19 | Josh Simons · Makerfield | REF | -27.1 |
| 20 | Cat Eccles · Stourbridge | REF | -26.5 |
| 21 | Jess Phillips · Birmingham Yardley | LD | -26.1 |
| 22 | Amanda Martin · Portsmouth North | REF | -25.6 |
| 24 | Danny Beales · Uxbridge and South Ruislip | CON | -25.2 |
| 25 | Helena Dollimore · Hastings and Rye | GRN | -25.0 |
| 26 | Sam Carling · North West Cambridgeshire | REF | -24.8 |
| 27 | Jen Craft · Thurrock | REF | -24.8 |
| 28 | Connor Rand · Altrincham and Sale West | CON | -24.5 |
| 29 | Chris Bloore · Redditch | REF | -24.5 |
| 30 | Sarah Smith · Hyndburn | REF | -24.4 |
| 31 | Maya Ellis · Ribble Valley | LD | -24.3 |
| 32 | Laurence Turner · Birmingham Northfield | REF | -24.1 |
| 33 | Emma Lewell-Buck · South Shields | REF | -24.1 |
| 34 | Clive Lewis · Norwich South | GRN | -23.8 |
| 35 | Kim Leadbeater · Spen Valley | REF | -23.8 |
| 36 | Joe Powell · Kensington and Bayswater | CON | -23.8 |
| 37 | Jo Platt · Leigh and Atherton | REF | -23.4 |
| 38 | Clive Betts · Sheffield South East | REF | -23.3 |
| 39 | Bayo Alaba · Southend East and Rochford | REF | -23.3 |
| 40 | Abtisam Mohamed · Sheffield Central | GRN | -22.6 |
| 41 | MINEmma Hardy · Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | REF | -22.2 |
| 42 | Sureena Brackenridge · Wolverhampton North East | REF | -22.2 |
| 43 | MINDiana Johnson · Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham | LD | -22.2 |
| 44 | Kirith Entwistle · Bolton North East | REF | -21.6 |
| 45 | Alex Ballinger · Halesowen | REF | -21.5 |
| 47 | Debbie Abrahams · Oldham East and Saddleworth | REF | -20.8 |
| 48 | Afzal Khan · Manchester Rusholme | GRN | -20.6 |
| 49 | Rachel Blake · Cities of London and Westminster | CON | -20.4 |
| 50 | Elsie Blundell · Heywood and Middleton North | REF | -20.4 |
| 51 | Lewis Atkinson · Sunderland Central | REF | -20.2 |
| 52 | Alice Macdonald · Norwich North | GRN | -20.2 |
| 55 | Jon Trickett · Normanton and Hemsworth | REF | -19.2 |
| 56 | Olivia Blake · Sheffield Hallam | LD | -19.2 |
| 57 | Adam Jogee · Newcastle-under-Lyme | REF | -19.1 |
| 58 | Marie Tidball · Penistone and Stocksbridge | REF | -19.1 |
| 59 | David Burton-Sampson · Southend West and Leigh | REF | -18.8 |
| 60 | Alex Sobel · Leeds Central and Headingley | GRN | -18.7 |
| 61 | Kate Osborne · Jarrow and Gateshead East | REF | -18.4 |
| 63 | Jim McMahon · Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | REF | -18.1 |
| 64 | John Slinger · Rugby | REF | -18.0 |
| 65 | Ben Coleman · Chelsea and Fulham | CON | -17.6 |
| 66 | Jade Botterill · Ossett and Denby Dale | REF | -17.4 |
| 67 | Ashley Dalton · West Lancashire | REF | -17.2 |
| 68 | Simon Lightwood · Wakefield and Rothwell | REF | -17.1 |
| 69 | Kevin Bonavia · Stevenage | REF | -16.7 |
| 70 | Antonia Bance · Tipton and Wednesbury | REF | -16.7 |
| 71 | Angela Rayner · Ashton-under-Lyne | REF | -16.6 |
| 72 | Michael Wheeler · Worsley and Eccles | REF | -16.4 |
| 73 | Al Carns · Birmingham Selly Oak | GRN | -16.2 |
| 74 | Louise Haigh · Sheffield Heeley | GRN | -16.1 |
| 75 | Sean Woodcock · Banbury | REF | -16.1 |
| 76 | Valerie Vaz · Walsall and Bloxwich | REF | -15.6 |
| 77 | Paul Davies · Colne Valley | REF | -15.6 |
| 78 | Stephanie Peacock · Barnsley South | REF | -15.4 |
| 79 | Daniel Francis · Bexleyheath and Crayford | REF | -15.3 |
| 80 | Yuan Yang · Earley and Woodley | CON | -15.3 |
| 81 | Sharon Hodgson · Washington and Gateshead South | REF | -14.5 |
| 82 | Yasmin Qureshi · Bolton South and Walkden | REF | -14.5 |
| 83 | Andrew Lewin · Welwyn Hatfield | REF | -14.3 |
| 84 | David Pinto-Duschinsky · Hendon | CON | -14.2 |
| 85 | Pam Cox · Colchester | REF | -14.1 |
| 86 | Mark Ferguson · Gateshead Central and Whickham | REF | -14.1 |
| 87 | Kate Dearden · Halifax | REF | -14.0 |
| 88 | Darren Paffey · Southampton Itchen | REF | -13.8 |
| 89 | Steve Race · Exeter | GRN | -13.5 |
| 90 | Feryal Clark · Enfield North | CON | -13.5 |
| 91 | Luke Murphy · Basingstoke | REF | -13.3 |
| 92 | Harpreet Uppal · Huddersfield | REF | -13.3 |
| 93 | Alex Baker · Aldershot | REF | -13.3 |
| 94 | Josh Fenton-Glynn · Calder Valley | REF | -13.3 |
| 95 | Peter Lamb · Crawley | REF | -13.2 |
| 96 | Phil Brickell · Bolton West | REF | -13.1 |
| 97 | Vicky Foxcroft · Lewisham North | GRN | -13.0 |
| 98 | David Baines · St Helens North | REF | -12.9 |
| 99 | Marie Rimmer · St Helens South and Whiston | REF | -12.5 |
| 100 | Gill Furniss · Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | REF | -12.3 |
| 101 | Mary Glindon · Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | REF | -12.3 |
| 102 | Paul Foster · South Ribble | REF | -12.1 |
| 103 | Paulette Hamilton · Birmingham Erdington | REF | -12.0 |
| 104 | Emma Foody · Cramlington and Killingworth | REF | -11.8 |
| 105 | Judith Cummins · Bradford South | REF | -11.8 |
| 106 | Andrew Pakes · Peterborough | CON | -11.8 |
| 107 | Patrick Hurley · Southport | REF | -11.6 |
| 108 | Uma Kumaran · Stratford and Bow | GRN | -11.3 |
| 109 | Hamish Falconer · Lincoln | REF | -11.2 |
| 110 | Joe Morris · Hexham | REF | -11.0 |
| 111 | Sarah Sackman · Finchley and Golders Green | CON | -10.6 |
| 112 | Taiwo Owatemi · Coventry North West | REF | -10.4 |
| 113 | Chi Onwurah · Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | REF | -10.1 |
| 114 | Liam Byrne · Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | REF | -9.9 |
| 115 | Rebecca Long-Bailey · Salford | REF | -9.9 |
| 116 | Margaret Mullane · Dagenham and Rainham | REF | -9.6 |
| 117 | Anna Dixon · Shipley | GRN | -9.3 |
| 118 | Beccy Cooper · Worthing West | REF | -9.2 |
| 119 | MINEllie Reeves · Lewisham West and East Dulwich | GRN | -9.2 |
| 120 | Matt Rodda · Reading Central | GRN | -9.1 |
| 121 | Derek Twigg · Widnes and Halewood | REF | -9.0 |
| 122 | Dan Jarvis · Barnsley North | REF | -9.0 |
| 123 | Dan Tomlinson · Chipping Barnet | CON | -8.9 |
| 124 | Catherine McKinnell · Newcastle upon Tyne North | LD | -8.4 |
| 125 | Tahir Ali · Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | GRN | -8.1 |
| 126 | Natasha Irons · Croydon East | CON | -7.8 |
| 128 | Christian Wakeford · Bury South | REF | -7.7 |
| 129 | Meg Hillier · Hackney South and Shoreditch | GRN | -7.6 |
| 130 | Richard Burgon · Leeds East | REF | -7.5 |
| 131 | Paul Waugh · Rochdale | REF | -7.5 |
| 132 | Daniel Zeichner · Cambridge | GRN | -7.3 |
| 133 | Kate Osamor · Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | CON | -7.1 |
| 134 | Callum Anderson · Buckingham and Bletchley | REF | -6.8 |
| 135 | Tom Rutland · East Worthing and Shoreham | REF | -6.8 |
| 136 | Neil Coyle · Bermondsey and Old Southwark | LD | -6.5 |
| 137 | Rupa Huq · Ealing Central and Acton | LD | -6.4 |
| 138 | Fleur Anderson · Putney | CON | -6.2 |
| 139 | Calvin Bailey · Leyton and Wanstead | GRN | -6.2 |
| 140 | James Frith · Bury North | REF | -6.0 |
| 141 | Jack Abbott · Ipswich | REF | -5.8 |
| 142 | Apsana Begum · Poplar and Limehouse | REF | -5.0 |
| 143 | Emily Darlington · Milton Keynes Central | REF | -5.0 |
| 144 | Barry Gardiner · Brent West | CON | -4.8 |
| 145 | Liz Twist · Blaydon and Consett | REF | -4.8 |
| 146 | Marsha De Cordova · Battersea | CON | -4.4 |
| 147 | Mark Hendrick · Preston | REF | -4.3 |
| 148 | Anneliese Midgley · Knowsley | REF | -4.3 |
| 149 | Luke Pollard · Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | REF | -4.3 |
| 150 | Chris Curtis · Milton Keynes North | REF | -4.3 |
| 151 | Navendu Mishra · Stockport | REF | -4.3 |
| 153 | Lucy Powell · Manchester Central | GRN | -4.2 |
| 154 | Satvir Kaur · Southampton Test | REF | -4.0 |
| 155 | Jeff Smith · Manchester Withington | GRN | -3.6 |
| 156 | Hilary Benn · Leeds South | GRN | -3.5 |
| 157 | Will Stone · Swindon North | CON | -3.5 |
| 158 | Heidi Alexander · Swindon South | CON | -3.4 |
| 159 | Warinder Juss · Wolverhampton West | REF | -3.3 |
| 160 | Tulip Siddiq · Hampstead and Highgate | LD | -3.0 |
| 161 | Mary Creagh · Coventry East | REF | -2.8 |
| 162 | Bambos Charalambous · Southgate and Wood Green | CON | -2.4 |
| 163 | Clive Efford · Eltham and Chislehurst | REF | -2.1 |
As voters head to the polls today, here is how Starmer’s six “First Steps for Change” – the Blair-style pledge cards launched in May 2024 – are holding up after almost two years in office:
Deliver economic stability: The OBR has downgraded 2026 GDP growth to 1.1%, with the IMF and OECD cutting their UK forecasts by 0.5 percentage points – the largest 2026 downgrade for any advanced economy. Inflation is 3.3%, well above target and higher than when Starmer entered Number 10. UK gilt yields rose more than any G7 country bar Italy in March, costing the typical first-time buyer an extra £100 a month on their mortgage. Reeves has all but given up on mentioning the word ‘growth’…
Cut NHS waiting times: 7.25 million are still waiting. The interim target of 65% treated within 18 weeks by March was missed at 61.5%. Trusts are now trimming the list by removing patients who fail to reply to text messages. 54,649 patients waited more than 12 hours on trolleys this winter, up 15% on the year. Streeting has at least hit his weekend appointments target. He has not hit much else. And has his eyes on a bigger job now anyway…
Launch a Border Security Command: 41,500 small boat arrivals in 2025, up 13%. Cumulative crossings since 2018 passed 199,920 last week. Crossings up 45% since the general election. Almost 65,000 crossed in Starmer’s first 18 months, just short of Boris Johnson’s 39-month total. The gangs remain un-smashed…
Set up Great British Energy: Bills are higher in cash terms than when Labour took office. Miliband warns voters they will not see all of April’s supposed £150 reduction because of “investment in the network”. The £300 cut by 2030, which was always a fantasy, is obviously unreachable…
Crack down on antisocial behaviour: 3,000 officers redeployed into neighbourhood roles by January, hitting the first-year target. The total number of police officers is down 0.6%. Forces are moving warm bodies between desks rather than adding them. Respect Orders are still working their way through Parliament. Does it feel like antisocial behaviour is in decline?
Recruit 6,500 new teachers: The pledge has been quietly redefined to exclude primary schools, add FE colleges and count retention rather than new recruits. Secondary recruitment remains 11% below target…
Admittedly these ‘first steps’ constituted Starmer’s 16th reset. He is now on 30. Can anyone in Number 10 name even one of these promises anymore?
As Guido has long predicted, the BBC’s declining audience share meant that YouTube overtook the state broadcaster as the most-watched outlet by Brits earlier this year. YouTube is bigger than the BBC…
Now regulators are running to catch up. New ‘prominence’ rules being considered by Starmer after his ill-advised reset with the EU, the BBC could be given special treatment as an organisation hand-picked by ministers. Attempts are being made to ask social media platforms to change their display algorithms to give more ‘prominence’ to this content. In other words, some want to try to force YouTube and other video sites to give ‘prominence’ to the BBC over every other creator…
That’s ironic as the video sites themselves are massive net givers to the creative economy: YouTube alone contributed 7 billion Euros to the EU’s otherwise faltering media market in 2024. In the UK, that platform alone has added more than £2 billion to GBP…
State regulation of poplar platforms never works. Starmer’s internet crackdown is reaching insane new levels…
Today Water Minister Emma Hardy said she is considering banning over-the-counter flea medication for pets to crack down on ‘environmental contamination’. War has broken out in the Middle East, the country is flat broke, and we have no Navy. The government has no answers to the real problems, so instead it makes itself feel better by banning things. Below is an exhaustive list of all the things they’ve outlawed already, and what they’re considering banning in future. Guido will update the list as it inevitably grows…
Former leader of the SNP in Westminster Ian Blackford told Times Radio why he believes Nicola Sturgeon’s claim that she spent no time in the kitchen and therefore didn’t see any of her husband’s purchases:
“She doesn’t have a passion for cooking.”