Windswept Tom Harris Applies for Shadow Cabinet

If Chris Bryant was somewhat over-detailed in his resume – including every boy scout badge was hardly necessary, Tom Harris is going to the other extreme, or, as he puts it “cutting to the chase”. He looks manly, as he says, he can hold his own at the dispatch box. He includes pictures in his email  to prove it:

Via Labour Uncut.

AV Means Labour’s Self-Perceived Lesser Miliband Could Win

YouGov’s data is now out from the Sunday Times Labour leadership poll which forecasts Ed Miliband winning. The Labour party’s use of AV shows how perverse that electoral system can be.

  • 44% think David Miliband “would be most effective, as leader of the opposition, at holding the present government to account”, versus 21% for his brother Ed.
  • 55% think David “Is most likely to lead Labour to victory at the next General Election”, only 25% think Ed would do so.
  • 45% think David “Would make the best Prime Minister” versus 28% for Ed.

Yet YouGov calculate Ed will just shade it on second preferences. Are they mad? Labour supporters think David Miliband is twice the leader his younger brother will be, yet they are going to choose the weaker candidate on second preferences. As Forrest Gump might say – “Stupid is as stupid does”…

Pollsters Backing Ed V Punters Backing David

Someone is going to get a shock based on these Sunday Times/YouGov polling results. With two weeks to go until the results are known and voting already taking place it is, all are agreed, going to be close. Punters are predicting a win for David Miliband whilst pollsters YouGov are predicting a narrow win for Ed Miliband.  Admittedly the punters could change their positions on this news, but as things stand currently they are ignoring the pollster overall.


Guido is sticking with his money on David Miliband to beat his brother Ed because he disagrees with the YouGov / LeftFootForward analysis of how the second preference votes will break. It will be close undoubtedly and there does seem to have been a shift in the union affiliates section of the electoral college and Guido has taken money off David to win that section (Ed is now 60% favourite to win the union members vote). David Miliband is still overall favourite to win the leadership, the MEP/MPs votes and the members votes. Guido can only think that the switch in union affiliates to Ed is a result of Union bosses’ endorsements sent out with ballot papers.

UPDATE : Ed Balls remains favourite to be eliminated in the first round. Oh dear…

Ed Miliband Admits Defeat

In a chat with Mumsnet the Labour leadership contenders were asked which historical figure they would be. Cue standard answers like Nye Bevan (Burnham), Republican president Lincoln (Mili-D) and, er, Elvis (Balls). However most telling was Ed Miliband’s answer – Bobby Kennedy.

So he’s the little brother who never made it to the top. Though the similarities must end there, David Miliband “is no Jack Kennedy” to coin a phrase

Asatoband

Ever wondered how David Miliband miraculously has time to blog while he is out and about sewing up the leadership vote. Well he doesn’t:

A little look at the RSS feed for the blog shows us who the real blogger is…

UPDATE: Jess loyally claims that David writes absolutely everything and it’s just her job to put things up. So what do his speech writers do?

David Plans Victory Party as Polls Peak

In the closing days punters are shifting decisively towards David Miliband becoming the next leader of the Labour Party and winning all three sections of the vote. The money is on him winning even the trade union block, despite the hundred grand Unite gave his little brother. A poll for the Daily Politics had him ahead amongst local councillors in addition to MPs, MEPs and members. It looks like he’s got it sewn up.

So it is no surprise then that he is already planning his victory party. Free day passes to Labour Conference for David Miliband supporters are being organised by his “Movement for Change” on the condition that they turn up to his rally being held on the 28th, the day after the result of the leadership election is announced. Despite caveating that the rally will go ahead whoever wins, it sounds a lot like a victory party…

Supporters are also invited to the new leader’s first conference speech, all free of charge. This isn’t the first time the front-runner has been quite so brazen. Despite promising a thousand community organisers would be trained by his campaign, he apparently had to flood his eve-of-voting-rally in London with members of left-wing group London Citizens. Guido imagines his opponents might have one or two things to say about potentially bribing supporters with free conference access…

Blair Bashes Balls For Miliband

No surprises that Tony showers praise on his loyal heir David Miliband. A good spot by Andrew Sparrow who notes:

“Blair says that Miliband was “fundamentally uncertain” in 2007 about whether he wanted the top job. But Blair also says: “Two years later he would be a different calibre of politician, with clear leadership qualities.”

Blair says “two years later”. But we’re reading this more than three years later. Is that sloppy editing? Or does it mean that Blair thought Miliband should replace Brown in 2009, before the general election?”

No other leadership candidate gets anywhere near the support. Ed Miliband is merely seen as one of Brown’s “folk”. Pure venom is spat at Ed Balls. Along side talk of him “behaving badly” was this gem:

“He has guts and he can take decisions. But he suffers from the bane of all left-leaning intellectuals. As I have remarked elsewhere, these guys never ‘get’ aspiration”

The other two candidates are barely mentioned in passing. Blair admits he knew Brown would be a disaster and had David preparing for a leadership bid in 2007. Things would have been very different if the prodigy had found the courage…

The “Special” One

So Labour “oldies”, or election winners as they are also known, are not allowed to comment on the future direction of the party apparently. Unless of course they are Alan Johnson. But was his description of David Miliband as “special” really the best choice of phrase?

Well Guido chuckled anyway…

Labour Lords a’Leaping

As much as the candidates may try to spin it, it is clear the old guard still have the ability to upset the leadership apple-cart. Guido, like most people, wasn’t really paying much attention to the squabbles of the weekend […]

+ READ MORE +

Balls Admits Defeat

So it seems Balls’s campaign to be leader is officially over. Plan B, to get the Shadow Chancellorship, kicked in this morning at Bloomberg. As refreshing as it was to finally hear a leadership candidate talk about the economy, […]

+ READ MORE +

Question to Balls

Guido is off to watch the death throes of Ed Balls’s leadership campaign over at Clifford Chance where he is doing a Q&A at 18:30 with Steve Richards. Tomorrow morning he is also giving  a speech at Bloomberg at 08:30. […]

+ READ MORE +

Davided Endorsements

With the candidates back from holiday, the finishing line is finally in sight for the Labour leadership. The news that the New Statesman has fallen in line with the Labour youth and trade union movement to back Ed Miliband shouldn’t […]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Adam Boulton says David Cameron campaigned as a neo-Thatcherite…

“The manifesto programme, with its sell-off of social housing, clampdown on public sector strikes, EU in/out referendum and benefit cuts, represents a much more traditional, neo-Thatcherite conservatism than that offered by Cameron Mk 1…”

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