Bigger Brother Twists Arms

Labour Uncut claims that “This Saturday, David Miliband will be elected. It will not mean that we are on the path back to power. Nor that we have fully come to terms with our election defeat. But we will have a new leader.” Well at least half of that is true, but that hasn’t stopped David’s campaign team putting a bit of stick about amongst the 2010 intake of MPs to secure their support in the non-secret ballot.

Guido hears that the David’s henchman have told the newbies “We are going to be back in power in 2015, so this decision is about whether you want a ministerial job or not.”

The campaign is clearly brimming with confidence…

Mandy’s Midnight Mili-Mischief

Guido commented yesterday on the nervousness in the David Miliband camp, but it seems things could be worse than previously thought. After so many years it is impossible to take anything Peter Mandelson says at face value so when his head pops up above the parapet it is not without reason. He has kept a relatively low profile in the campaign so far, only pushing his book rather than David Miliband. However with just a matter of hours left to vote, he dips an oar in to slam Ed.

Given most ballots have already been cast, the impact of such a spurious and late intervention is negligible, but it certainly shows some eleventh hour desperation to give it a go…

Nervousness in David Miliband’s Camp

After reading endless tips from Mike Smithson on PoliticalBetting.com to back Ed Miliband, Guido switched his bets on Friday. David Miliband’s implied probability of victory had already dropped from 75% to 65% by the time Guido shifted his money from one brother to the other. He is at the time of writing given a 59% chance of winning the leadership (40% for Ed Miliband). Given it is too close to call that could narrow to 50% / 50% soon. Both camps are of course claiming their internal polling numbers point to victory.

In the humiliation stakes punters reckon that despite Guido’s never-ending support, Ed Balls is still the favourite to to be eliminated in the first round. His odds on avoiding humiliation have improved, dropping from a 62% certainty down to a still not good 41%, with Diane Abbott on 35% and Burnham given 30% a chance of going out first. If you are reading this Sally Bercow, and still think Balls is going to win the leadership, a £5 bet will win you £1000.

Windswept Tom Harris Applies for Shadow Cabinet

If Chris Bryant was somewhat over-detailed in his resume – including every boy scout badge was hardly necessary, Tom Harris is going to the other extreme, or, as he puts it “cutting to the chase”. He looks manly, as he says, he can hold his own at the dispatch box. He includes pictures in his email  to prove it:

Via Labour Uncut.

AV Means Labour’s Self-Perceived Lesser Miliband Could Win

YouGov’s data is now out from the Sunday Times Labour leadership poll which forecasts Ed Miliband winning. The Labour party’s use of AV shows how perverse that electoral system can be.

  • 44% think David Miliband “would be most effective, as leader of the opposition, at holding the present government to account”, versus 21% for his brother Ed.
  • 55% think David “Is most likely to lead Labour to victory at the next General Election”, only 25% think Ed would do so.
  • 45% think David “Would make the best Prime Minister” versus 28% for Ed.

Yet YouGov calculate Ed will just shade it on second preferences. Are they mad? Labour supporters think David Miliband is twice the leader his younger brother will be, yet they are going to choose the weaker candidate on second preferences. As Forrest Gump might say – “Stupid is as stupid does”…

Pollsters Backing Ed V Punters Backing David

Someone is going to get a shock based on these Sunday Times/YouGov polling results. With two weeks to go until the results are known and voting already taking place it is, all are agreed, going to be close. Punters are predicting a win for David Miliband whilst pollsters YouGov are predicting a narrow win for Ed Miliband.  Admittedly the punters could change their positions on this news, but as things stand currently they are ignoring the pollster overall.


Guido is sticking with his money on David Miliband to beat his brother Ed because he disagrees with the YouGov / LeftFootForward analysis of how the second preference votes will break. It will be close undoubtedly and there does seem to have been a shift in the union affiliates section of the electoral college and Guido has taken money off David to win that section (Ed is now 60% favourite to win the union members vote). David Miliband is still overall favourite to win the leadership, the MEP/MPs votes and the members votes. Guido can only think that the switch in union affiliates to Ed is a result of Union bosses’ endorsements sent out with ballot papers.

UPDATE : Ed Balls remains favourite to be eliminated in the first round. Oh dear…

Ed Miliband Admits Defeat

In a chat with Mumsnet the Labour leadership contenders were asked which historical figure they would be. Cue standard answers like Nye Bevan (Burnham), Republican president Lincoln (Mili-D) and, er, Elvis (Balls). However most telling was Ed Miliband’s answer – Bobby Kennedy.

So he’s the little brother who never made it to the top. Though the similarities must end there, David Miliband “is no Jack Kennedy” to coin a phrase

Asatoband

Ever wondered how David Miliband miraculously has time to blog while he is out and about sewing up the leadership vote. Well he doesn’t:

A little look at the RSS feed for the blog shows us who the real blogger is…

UPDATE: Jess loyally claims that David writes absolutely everything and it’s just her job to put things up. So what do his speech writers do?

David Plans Victory Party as Polls Peak

In the closing days punters are shifting decisively towards David Miliband becoming the next leader of the Labour Party and winning all three sections of the vote. The money is on him winning even the trade union block, despite […]

Blair Bashes Balls For Miliband

No surprises that Tony showers praise on his loyal heir David Miliband. A good spot by Andrew Sparrow who notes:

“Blair says that Miliband was “fundamentally uncertain” in 2007 about whether he wanted the top job. But Blair also says:

[…]

The “Special” One

So Labour “oldies”, or election winners as they are also known, are not allowed to comment on the future direction of the party apparently. Unless of course they are Alan Johnson. But was his description of David Miliband as […]

Labour Lords a’Leaping

As much as the candidates may try to spin it, it is clear the old guard still have the ability to upset the leadership apple-cart. Guido, like most people, wasn’t really paying much attention to the squabbles of the weekend […]



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Quote of the Day

Adam Spiegel, producer of Nazi themed “The Producers” musical says…

“Margate seemed a perfect place to start the promotion. I’m disappointed but not entirely surprised to see that UKIP are trying to hitch a publicity ride on the back of the show.”

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