Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The Race for Number Two

Guido was perusing the Betfair political markets and suddenly lost his enthusiasm for gambling. It seems all so boringly predictable. Sarko will be Presidente, Blair will go in the summer, Brown will be PM. Only the deputy leadership looks a bit less predictable.

It also has some characters, Hain and Blears provide a lot of comedic potential. Guido feels we should know more about these people and their campaigns – well not the campaign issues so much as the campaigners themselves – we’re not interested in policy. So co-conspirators, email Guido with titbits and gossip.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Hilary Benn is a "Limey SheMale"

In New York Hilary’s “we-don’t-call-it-the- war-on-terror” speech got noticed.

See it on Guynews.

Friday, April 20, 2007

If Not Miliband, Who Will Challenge Brown?

Miliband has apparently told everyone he really means it and he won’t stand. So we are left with the joke candidacies of John McDonnell and Michael Meacher – who are unlikely to even manage to get 44 MPs to back their nomination.

Reid is wounded but circumstances can change, 40/1 currently on Betfair seems a bit too long a price. Particularly as he still very firmly refuses to rule himself out of the running.

Milburn (100/1) would be humiliated and knows it.

Charle Clarke (50/1) is bitter enough to give it a stab “to encourage a debate”, citing principle rather than ambition.

John Hutton (150/1) is another one – he is certain to be sacked by Brown, since he famously told Nick Robinson that “Brown would be a fucking disastrous PM”. As a result he is not going to feature in a future Brown cabinet. He is surely worth a few quid as a trading bet on Betfair? Guido has a few quid on him running as an outside bet. He is the only Blairite in the cabinet with the inclination to chance it.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

The News is Not News

Guido was off getting trashed so missed this “live”, but Benedict Brogan* has decoded it for us all.

At lunchtime Nick Robinson told us that David Miliband was not standing for leader. Something Miliband tells us weekly. This time it was news. Benedict thinks that this time Miliband was saying – “No fucking way am I standing. End of. Drop it. Got it?”

Clear?

*Likely to soon supplant Iain Dale as the second best political blogger going – if Iain doesn’t watch it.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

MySpacers Don’t Vote

Politicians including Hilary Clinton think getting down with the kids requires a MySpace site. Research by Heather Hopkins at Hitwise suggests it is an ineffective way of reaching voters. In the UK MySpacers are more likely to be welfare chavs on council estates* who don’t vote. Peter Hain’s leadership campaign has a MySpace site. Is that smart targeting of his likely supporters, or just stupid?

*Heather didn’t describe them in those words.

Slippery as a Silverfish

Dizzy got a nice scoop* yesterday. Basically Silverfish TV have bought up gordonbrown4leader.com and similar sites. So what? Well Gordon doesn’t officially have a campaign and when he does he will be expected to list cash donations and donations in kind. The Electoral Commission is taking a tough line on this sort of stuff. Silverfish rushed out an explanation that they had bought the domain merely as a speculative punt to make money (something – as Dizzy points out this morning – is prohibited by the internet authorities). Guido frankly finds it unbelieveable that Silverfish really were going to try and make a quick profit out of Gordon Brown.

Silverfish.TV are Labour’s preferred new media / video producers, doing most recently Scottish and Welsh Labour’s Party Political Broadcasts. They also did the “Dave the Chameleon” video for Labour, for free. Obviously it costs quite a lot to do an expensive CGI animation, but they didn’t charge the Labour party a penny. They do however have a number of juicy contracts awarded by Labour cronies and paid for by the taxpayer.

Do you see a pattern here? The Smith Institute is paid thousands of pounds to organise seminars for HM Treasury at the taxpayers expense. The Smith Institute gets to use No. 11 Downing Street for seminars for free. Opinion Leader Research is paid huge amounts to do polling for HM Treasury. Opinion Leader Research does polling for the Smith Institute for free. Silverfish are paid by Downing Street at fat rates, subsidising them to do “Dave the Chameleon” attack videos and coincidentally buy campaign websites on Gordon’s behalf for free.

It is a corrupt practice, Gordon’s campaign bills are being picked up by the taxpayer indirectly. In a secretive, behind closed doors, third-world style, “you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours way”. He is running an undeclared campaign, it is funded, and no declarations are being made to the Electoral Commission because the funding is covert. Donors get tax relief from HM Treasury on donations to the Smith Institute, which is a charity of which Gordon is the only identifiable beneficiary. His pollster gets HM Treasury contracts and produces positive push polling for him. Labour’s friendly new media production outfit similarly wins Whitehall contracts and does work for Labour and Gordon for free. It has come to something when Nigerian newspapers are running stories about political corruption in Britain which feature the Smith Institute.

*Notice how despite Channel 4 News and the Times running with it, no credit was given to Dizzy. They say bloggers are parasitical leeches on the Dead-Tree-Press etc.

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Beermatters

Not a photoshop job, genuine campaign beermat from Blears. Wonder where they were when thought up that idea?

Thursday, March 29, 2007

The Sun to Set on Tony

Rumour has it that Tony Blair has arranged an interview with George Pascoe-Watson at The Sun to run the day before Local Election polling day (2nd May). This could well be the day we get firm news as to Tony’s departure date – some think he might announce it to be immediately after polling day to fit in with the assumption that the Labour leadership campaign will run for 7 weeks until the start of July. Would this help Labour in Scotland? Is Gordon any more popular than Blair? Guido still has money on Q3, but it is looking less certain that Blair has the will to to exit the stage as late as possible.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Hilary Benn’s Arms Length Viral

Just as the anti-Hilary attack ad made by an “independent” supporter of Obama turned out to not be so independently made after all, this independently made ad will, Guido has no doubt, have the blessing of Hilary Benn’s team.
Why not run the ad officially? Because firstly it breaches Zephyr Film’s copyright, it is also a little bit risky in that humour can often have disastrous and unexpected consequences. Gweirdo (James Mason) carefully takes responsibility for it in case Benn’s team need to avoid getting any backwash. Humour has hitherto been sadly lacking in political videos, now that anyone with a laptop and a digital camera can make one, that is going to change. This one works and won’t harm Hilary Benn at all, but as Sion Simon’s anti-WebCameron debacle proves, it can backfire badly.

See the Benn viral on Guynews.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Hutton v Brown? What has he got to lose?

He has recently sorted out his contact lenses and started getting his hair done more fashionably. He hasn’t endorsed Brown and he is careful in interviews not to do so using a word formula that is in itself revealing. He was challenged in an interview and repeatedly asked if he thought Brown needed a “cabinet-level” challenger. He basically did not say no. Evasive. Unlike Miliband he has not gone on bended knee before Brown and publicly repented for his Blairite sins. He is more Blairite than Blair.

He famously told Nick Robinson that “Brown would be a fucking disastrous PM”.

As a result he is not going to feature in a Brown cabinet. After Reid and Johnson he is the next favourite, ahead of Miliband and Hilary Benn. He is surely worth a few quid on Betfair?

Seen Elsewhere

Bercow ‘Wounded’ | Speccie
This Goes Further Than Rotherham | Simon Danczuk
Bercow Mocked | Times
Indy Deletes ‘Jewish Lobby’ Headline | MediaGuido
Cracknell v Boris | Sun
British Muslims are Failing to Integrate | Dan Hodges
Dear Sarah Wollaston… | ASI
Treatment of Ashya King’s Family Authoritarian | Brendan O'Neill
Stop the War Should Disband | Rob Marchant
State Should Not Act as Parent | Kathy Gyngell
Guido’s Column | Sun


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Douglas Carswell…

“I stab people in the front, not the back.”



Owen Jones says:

We also need Zil lanes.


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