The International Monetary Fund has downgraded the UK’s growth forecast by the G7. The IMF’s latest global forecasts have downgraded the UK’s growth projection for this year by 0.5% to only 0.8%…
| Country | 2026 Forecast | Diff. from Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| UK | 0.8 | -0.5 |
| Germany | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| France | 0.9 | -0.1 |
| Italy | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| Japan | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| US | 2.3 | -0.1 |
| Canada | 2.5 | -0.1 |
“In the United Kingdom, inflation, which in 2025 increased partly because of one-off changes in regulated prices, is expected to pick up again temporarily toward 4 percent before returning to target by the end of 2027 as the effects of higher energy prices fade and a weakening labor market continues to exert downward pressure on wage growth.”
It also says the unemployment rate will hit 5.6% this year. Big gulps can be heard from the Treasury…
The International Monetary Fund has today released its World Economic Outlook report. It now predicts that the UK’s economic growth will be lower this year than last…
Since its last forecast in October the IMF has bumped up 2025’s growth by one point to 1.4% and says that this year will post 1.3% growth. Cheers for that Winter Budget, Rachel…
The IMF adds: “In the United Kingdom, inflation, which increased last year partly due to one-off regulated price changes, is expected to return to target by the end of 2026 as a weakening labour market continues to exert downward pressure on wage growth.” Destroying the labour market – that’s one way to bring inflation down…
There is still no sign of additional support for pubs or any other hospitality businesses for that matter. Downing Street is now saying it will be closer to the Spring Statement on 3 March…
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Rachel Reeves is whacking up taxes at the fastest pace of any G7 country. While the overall tax burden is not (yet) the highest in the bloc, the Chancellor is accelerating quicker than everyone else, including France, Germany and the United States. And she is now openly admitting it’s going to get worse…
British Government revenues are set to account for 40.6% of GDP by 2029, up from 38.3% when Reeves entered Number 11 last year. That’s around £65 billion added to the tax burden. A colossal rise…
Last year, Reeves promised her car-crash budget was a once-in-a-Parliament necessary evil. Now, not so much…
The International Monetary Fund has increased the UK’s GDP growth projections by only 0.1% since its last Economic Outlook report in April. When it warned of global economic doom from Trump’s tariffs…
In the July GDP Projections 2025’s growth is forecast at 1.2% and in 2026 1.4%. That is after Starmer’s trade deal with Trump. A 0.1% uplift for this year and no change for last year compared to April’s report…
Compare that to January’s projections of 1.6% for this year and 1.5% for next year. The report adds it expects the Bank of England to cut “around twice more this year after pausing to assess incoming data.” Sluggish…
The International Monetary Fund has produced a new report on the UK economy this afternoon in which it warns that taxes will have to go up. Quelle surprise…
The report from the tax-and-spend-happy organisation was written on 1 July but only published today. The IMF hilariously praises Reeves’ now-watered down welfare reforms:
“Unless the authorities revisit their commitment not to increase taxes on “working people,” further spending prioritization will be required, to align better the scope of public services with available resources. The authorities have already embarked on this process through recent reforms to incapacity and disability benefits, but other avenues for savings need to be considered. In particular, the triple lock could be replaced with a policy of indexing the state pension to the cost of living, as recommended in previous Art. IV reports. Access to public services could also depend more on an individual’s capacity to pay, with charges levied on higher-income users, such as copayments for health services, while shielding the vulnerable. There may also be scope to expand means testing of benefits.”
State pension indexing is political suicide as apparently are any other money-saving measures Reeves looks to go ahead with. Taxes it is, then…
Javier Milei’s minister of deregulation and state transformation Federico Sturzenegger is having a great time at the IMF today. He quoted Yoda in a forum discussion:
“Master Yoda says: ‘the fear of loss is the path to the dark side’. (…) Meaning, in this turbulent times you have to stick to your vision, to your values and your policies. In our case: fiscal macroeconomic stability, deregulation, and economic freedom.”
Sturzenegger, formerly professor of economics at Harvard, also handed IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva chainsaw pin: “Our symbol is this pin which is a chainsaw – we wear proudly this chainsaw pin – which paid with our own money and not with government money I just want to clarify.” Does he have one to give to Reeves…
Milei relaxed the fixed exchange rate of the peso on 14 April and, contrary to constant statements from left-wing economists and think tanks that it would crash, it yesterday traded at above its previous fixed rate. Economy minister Luis Caputo mocked them: “We’d wait for a wave of apologies from colleagues and journalists apologising for telling people we were devaluing, but I’m sure it won’t come.” Oops…
Red Wall Labour backbencher Jonathan Brash told GB News that Starmer should resign:
“I’m completely fed up about it, and I think it’s got to the point now where I genuinely think that, as far as the Prime Minister is concerned, it’s not a case of if, it’s when.”