Nigel Farage is up against John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, in Buckingham. He is appealing for funds to support his campaign online and he is also running fundraising advertising in the arch-Tory magazine the Spectator.

Buckingham is of course a rock solid Tory seat held by an expense fiddling, mortgage flipping member of parliament.

So why is Farage running there?

Because there are a lot of chihuahuas in British politics – and they  have votes and they are angry.  ChIHUAHuas are Conservatives In their Heads, Ukip At Heart.  Some are hardcore irreconcilable Eurosceptics, some are disappointed with the melting away of the cast iron guarantee and many more are just mainstream conservatives who vote Tory because in their heads they know it is the only realistic choice they have, even though they are UKIP sympathisers at heart. Chihuahuas are off that loyalty leash in Buckingham, which because Bercow is the speaker hasn’t even got a nominally Conservative Party candidate. Bercow is universally loathed by grassroots conservatives as well as more establishment Tories up to and including David Cameron.

Whatever they say publicly there will be cheering in CCHQ if Bercow loses. Many will see it as a conservative gain, Farage’s politics are their politics after a few gin and tonics; cut taxes, stuff the EU, cut spending and show a bit of pride in being British.  Chihauhuas may be small, but they can’t half nip…

The non-partisan online fund-raising site YouFund.Me.uk has raised thousands in small online donations to beat Ed Balls, hundreds to unseat Nadine Dorries and is aiming to raise even more money for Nigel Farage in his bid to unseat Bercow.  Guido will bet that a lot of conservatives around the country will be donating to get rid of Bercow.  The unprecedented ”Friends of the Speaker” slush fund has ensured Bercow will be fighting for survival hard, so why not throw Farage a tenner to oust the troughing flipper…

The “Cameron Girls” admit…

“The Cameron Girls” (one Conservative, one Liberal Democrat) is a comedy video filmed and supported by a plethora of people with various political allegiances… We have been quite astounded by the level of interest in our story. Clearly the political classes were short on entertainment in this election.

Antony Calvert has raised a five figure sum from small online donations towards his attempt to beat Ed Balls in Morley and Outwood. The Daily Politics reported on his campaign and his online fund-raising efforts using YouFund.Me:

Where will you be for the “Balls moment”?

Labour’s trusted twitterers are on the front page of the party’s website, further confirming the belief in Labour circles that twitter is some kind of alternative to democracy.  They have made sure that it won’t be easily hacked.  Not sure what the value is – presumably they are hoping that hacks will consult the page to see what the Labour faithful think of the debate.  A virtual twitter spin room… hmmm…  come back to Guido’s later this evening for a rival virtual twitter spin room…

Spin is cheap, punters put their money where their mouth is, currently the punters on Political Smarkets rate the chances of victory for the leaders in the debates thus:

16:45 David Cameron 55%  Nick Clegg 48% Gordon Brown 29%

18:30 David Cameron 65%  Nick Clegg 48% Gordon Brown 20%

Gordon’s price has improved from this morning where punters where giving him only a 10% chance of winning* tonight’s debate, Clegg was favourite though in late betting Cameron has pulled ahead.   All to play for…

*Winning defined by ICM’s post debate polling results.

A few months ago Guido was speaking at events and pontificating on panels with politicians who were going on about how they had learnt from Obama’s campaign.  We were told there was going to be online fund raising on a major scale in the manner of Obama.

So far as Guido can tell Compass, 38 Degrees, Old Holborn and Anna Raccoon‘s smoking landlord campaign, MyConservatives.com, YouFund.Me.uk and the Taxpayers’ Alliance are the only groups successfully raising money from the many via small online donations resulting from advertising and email lists.  Even so we are talking thousands of pounds rather than tens of thousands of pounds.  Labour’s efforts so far have not borne much fruit by all accounts.

The stand out candidate who has raised more online than any other candidate ever is Antony Calvert, who is standing against Ed Balls in Morley & Outwood.  Although trying to over-turn a notional majority of 9,000 against the Unite-backed bruiser, Ed Ball’s price at the bookies has steadily moved in from sure-fire favourite towards only a 50% chance of  him holding his seat.  Antony Calvert  is running him neck and neck.  Why is that?  Could it be because Antony Calvert is Britain’s unlikely answer to Obama, having raised more money in small online donations than other candidate in Britain.  George Osborne singled out Calvert’s campaign for praise in a speech to CCHQ staffers, calling it “a castration strategy”.

The truth is, if Antony Calvert takes Morley and Outwood, he will be Britain’s first digital election winner…

(Incidentally, you can donate to his campaign here and you can bet on him winning Morely & Outwood at PoliticSmarkets.)

Don’t miss the Labour Party’s broadcast tonight: “The Road Ahead” will be broadcast tonight at 17:55 (BBC2), 18:25 (ITV1), 18:55 (BBC1), 19:25 (Five) and 19:55 (Channel 4).  Above is Guido’s look into the future if we stay on this road…

The Labour manifesto launch for Gordon had an introduction from Ellie Gellard, but she was kept away from the press and it is no wonder Sky were refused interviews with “BevaniteEllie” – before she became Gordon’s cheerleader she was calling for him to resign and pass the reigns (sic) to Alan Johnson. From her no doubt soon-to-disappear old blog:

“How dare he stand by with personal interest watching our party sink it is not his to lose, it is ours.  Here’s my ideal scenario for the coming months. Brown accepts that too much damage has been done and while I feel sorry for someone who has waited so long for a job which he has done averagely and been slaughtered for, I care more for our party and supporters. Alan Johnson takes the reigns (sic). In short, Brown (although I had high hopes and don’t burden you with total responsibility) get your coat, time’s up.”

Guido couldn’t agree more. Incoming Nokia alert…

As the Prime Mentalist took to the stage at his Pyongyang  style manifesto launch he was introduced by his chief cheerleader the famous-for-Twitter Ellie Gellard. Some might know her better as the self-titled “BevaniteEllie“, Labour’s 24/7 twittering foghorn. While she may tweet her way through the ups and downs of Brown’s last days, some might consider the choice less than appropriate. Given that Labour last week sacked a candidate for inappropriate jokes on Twitter, there seems to be some double standard for poster girls. Making jokes about Thatcher breaking her neck is fine apparently, and gets you a spot on the top platform.  But who is this dyed in the wool Labour activist?

Reading between the lines you can see why Labour wouldn’t want this well spoken, rich-girl socialite on television before. She’s hardly your average Labour voter. Growing up on the mean streets of Holland Park and attending one of the most selective schools in the country, Bevan must be turning in his grave. How many “average students” Labour are trying to reach out to can quaff champagne when flitting between London and Paris to go clubbing whenever she chooses? Does Gellard really relate to working people whilst sipping cocktails on a yacht?  She is more Mandelsonian New Labour than anything Old Labour’s Nye Bevan would recognise…

UPDATE: Seems Sky News are a little grumpy that reams of press officers wouldn’t let them get anywhere near Gellard for an interview. The whole painfully stage managed affair is unravelling. She was only trusted to read from a script and perhaps that plummy accent wouldn’t have gone down so well on the lunchtime news…

Stuart MacLennan said wistfully…

“Never thought I’d be a trending topic on Twitter.”