Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Budget Bingo

Click the above to download the PDF with hyperlinks. Rules are simple: choose one phrase, policy or scenario from each row, so eight overall. Listen out during the Chancellor’s statement, first to six wins. Don’t forget to shout “Budget Bingo”!

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Ed Balls Calls for Tax Cuts to Boost Growth from Zero

Ed Balls was on the Marr show this morning and also has an article in the Sunday Times ahead of the budget, advocating tax cuts to boost growth. He repeats his long-standing call for a reversal of the consumer whacking VAT hike and comes over like a born-again Nigel Lawson in his article:

…cut the basic rate of income tax by 3p for a year. Or raise the income tax personal allowance to more than £10,000… It would be better to cut VAT now — it’s fairer and quicker and would help pensioners and others who don’t pay income tax. But any substantial tax cuts to help households and stimulate the economy would be better than doing nothing.

Tax cuts won’t scare international bond markets, even the austerity friendly IMF is advocating a VAT cut for Britain, government gilts are propped up by QE (for now) so the issue of bond market vigilantism doesn’t arise.

It was a mistake to hike VAT and it is a strategic error to burden industry with crushingly high green taxes and penal marginal income tax rates of over 50% discouraging entrepreneurs from coming to invest in Britain. If the government is going to miss the deficit target, and it is, miss it because the government slashed taxes to grow the economy. The international bond markets will forgive a finance minister with a growing economy who misses his deficit target, they won’t forgive a finance minister with a contracting economy in any circumstances. Chancellor Zero knows that with no growth there is no hope for the deficit.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Zero GDP Growth Has Zero To Do With €urozone

Last week’s shrinking GDP figures were spun by George Osborne as due to the crisis in the €urozone. The decline in GDP could hardly be blamed on the US market which is picking up and growing at a respectable 2.8% last quarter, nor on Asian markets where China grew at an annualised 8.9% and India at 7.8%.

Is the decline in UK GDP really, as George Osborne implies, down to economic trade with the crisis ridden continent falling? The answer is no.

UK exports to €urozone states actually rose a healthy 11.3% last year:

It is a myth that the decline in GDP has anything to do with the €uro-crisis leading to a decline in exports to the €urozone. The barriers to growth are a domestic problem… 

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Not a Single Billion More

George Osborne gave a cast iron promise last October:

“Britain will not be putting money into the bailout fund either directly or through the IMF… the IMF exists to support countries, it does not exist to support currencies. The IMF contributing money to the eurozone bailout fund, no; Britain contributing money to the eurozone bailout fund, no. That is Britain’s clear position.”

Ed Balls and Tory backbenchers are at one on this, it is for Germany through the ECB to support the €uro. The American and Chinese Treasury ministers agree, it is not the purpose of the IMF to bailout an ill-conceived currency union. Don’t forget your promise George*…

*Guido hasn’t forgotten his IMF promise.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Chancellor Zero

Even if the GDP numbers are not entirely unexpected, they are still a failure, a failure to grow the economy. The deficit can only be paid down if the economy grows, we can’t borrow our way out of a debt crisis. It is time for a supply-side revolution, why is the government implementing a policy of selected regional enterprise zones, why not make the whole economy an enterprise zone? It was a mistake to hike VAT and it is a strategic error to burden industry with crushingly high green taxes and penal marginal income tax rates of over 50% discourage entrepreneurs from coming to invest in Britain.

If the government is going to miss the deficit target, and it is, miss it because the government slashed taxes to grow the economy. The international bond markets will forgive a finance minister with a growing economy who misses his deficit target, they won’t forgive a finance minister with a contracting economy in any circumstances. Chancellor Zero knows that with no growth there is no hope for the deficit.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Boris Island is More Than an Airport

Despite the protestations from Nick Clegg, Cameron has given the go ahead for a full blown consultation on Boris Island – the airport plan in the Thames Estuary. The Telegraph says Clegg has been fussing so much that the announcement was delayed from the beginning of the year. Clues that it was coming have been emerging since last summer when Steve Hilton and Osborne backed the idea. It’s Clegg that is being accused of playing politics in the Mayoral election year, but in even longer terms, if the £40bn plan gets the go ahead, it’s Boris who has the most to gain politically. Especially as has he won George Osborne over…

Friday, December 30, 2011

Toffs Taxing the Poor More

Minimum alcohol pricing won’t affect champagne drinkers, it will hit those on lower incomes. Again.

Regressive taxes aren’t just about forcing up the price of supermarket booze, it was putting up VAT – a mistake that boosted inflation which was already above target and hit consumer spending when it was already weak. Unquestionably that was a regressive tax. Even the usually austerity friendly IMF cautioned against the VAT hike.

The squeezed middle aren’t spared either. Air Passenger Duty means that a family of four flying to America for their annual holiday can pay up to £587 in taxes. The Fawkes family fly back and forth to Ireland regularly spending more on air taxes than on air tickets. UK subjects pay more in air taxes than all the rest of the EU’s citizens – combined. It won’t bother the Chancellor on his £10,000 skiing holiday weeks, but those of us in the private sector, not on benefits, reckon he could do more to cut spending and the tax burden. It is called a growth strategy…

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Naked Truth is Osborne Will Back IMF Bailout

Last night Guido tweeted

Guido reckons the spin coming from the Treasury about them saying “No” is bluster. Guido suspects they mean they are not ready to send billions to the IMF just yet…

If by St Patrick’s day Osborne has kept his promise, made to MPs on October 27, that “Britain will not be putting money into the bail-out fund either directly or through the IMF” Guido will keep his promise* and run naked around Smith Square from the EU offices right past Transport House and back. Don’t count on seeing Guido’s bare arse streaking past the daffodils on March 17…

*Iain Dale has yet to “run naked down Whitehall” as promised on election night.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Chancellor’s Christmas Card

Wise men passing No. 11. What does it mean?

Tip of the hat to Guido’s favourite blonde bagcarrier Felicity Parkes for the scan…

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Autumn Statement

Guido wants to see measures that help the squeezed-middle, the tax paying voters who elected this government.

Prepare to be disappointed…


Seen Elsewhere

Another Feminist Lecture | Laura Perrins
UKIP Posters Bad Economics But Good Politics | James Delingpole
Tories Losing to UKIP in Scotland | ConHome
UKIPers Will Come Home in 2015 | Sun
Tories Set for Thrashing | Sun
Boris Announcement Imminent | Sun
The Case for Splitting Up CCHQ | ConservativeHome
Why UKIP Should Join a ‘European Union’. | Anna Raccoon
Dave’s Brush With Bed Bugs | Speccie
Farage: No Briton Could Be My Secretary | BBC
Dave and George Can Now Be Seen Together | Ben Brogan


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Francis Elliot reports on No. 10 strategy meetings:

“When discussion veers to subjects that Mr Crosby thinks of concern only to the political and journalistic classes, he treats the offender as a pub bore with a tart request to “pass the beer nuts, mate”.”



Alexrod says:

It’s money innit.


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