From this morning’s City AM…
YouGov, who were the most accurate pollsters in London 4 years ago, have produced projections for the Greater London Assembly. The good news is they expect the BNP to be wiped out, the bad news is that London could be looking at a Red-Green majority in the assembly trying to thwart Boris on cost cutting. In Germany Red-Green governed cities have veered to the far left.
It is still close and with the Tories polling double digits behind Labour since the budget, Boris has to overcome a tough national polling deficit. Paddick, despite being a better candidate than he was in 2008, is not expected to poll in double digits and UKIP are projected to cement their claim to be the third party gaining two seats and equaling the LibDems. The graphic below shows how London became Boris Town in 2008:
The suburbs besieged inner London to take control of City Hall from Red Ken…
YouGov regularly asks respondents do they approve or disapprove of the party leaders. Subtracting disapproval from approval gives a net approval rating. Guido can’t recall public negativity towards politicians being higher.
Collectively it stands at -121, that is minus one hundred and twenty-one. Dave’s personal ratings are at an all time low at -27, Clegg’s continue to be the worst at -53 and despite a bad week for the Tories, Ed Miliband’s personal rating went down further to -41. In short, the public hates all politicians.
The political class can forget forcing the public to pay for politics. We hate them all. The Guidoised perception of politics is mainstream…
Last week’s shrinking GDP figures were spun by George Osborne as due to the crisis in the €urozone. The decline in GDP could hardly be blamed on the US market which is picking up and growing at a respectable 2.8% last quarter, nor on Asian markets where China grew at an annualised 8.9% and India at 7.8%.
Is the decline in UK GDP really, as George Osborne implies, down to economic trade with the crisis ridden continent falling? The answer is no.
UK exports to €urozone states actually rose a healthy 11.3% last year:
It is a myth that the decline in GDP has anything to do with the €uro-crisis leading to a decline in exports to the €urozone. The barriers to growth are a domestic problem…
A lot of chaff is being thrown up about the £10,000 tax threshold hike being pushed by Clegg this morning. Matthew Sinclair over at the Taxpayers’ Alliance has sent this chart proving the point Guido has been making all day. Those on low earnings benefit proportionately the most.
Those on lower earnings, e.g. the second decile (£10,853 according to ONS data) will see their post-tax earnings rise by 4.7%, those in the highest decile will see their post tax earnings rise by just 1.1%. Now some policy wonks on the left complain that middle income earners will see their post tax income rise by some 2% and that this is “a waste of money”. The squeezed middle-classes need some help as well, this is a good thing, not a flaw. The hike shouldn’t be paid for by once again shifting the higher rate threshold either. The coalition parties should stop piling on the pressure on the very demographic that voted them into office to cut taxes…
E-editions and books were combined. Pugnacious Mehdi Hasan really should be less chippy given how many of his books Guido helps shift…
Newsnight gave Ed a pasting last night, but sometimes a graph is all you need. Left Foot Forward have hit the spot:
Half the country thinks he possess absolutely no qualities worth noting. Guido hears that CCHQ strategists have scrapped an attack on Ed’s leadership pencilled in for Friday morning, post by-election defeat…
Back in July the government won a vote to send £9 billion to the IMF by just 28 votes, the tightest margin yet for the Coalition government. Despite the best efforts of the whips some thirty-two Tory MPs rebelled against the government. With Osborne’s pledge today to increase British contributions to the IMF before the cash is sent on its way to Greece, an even trickier vote lies ahead:
Labour voted against the government last time and Guido can see no reason why they would change their vote next time. If you add the 81 EU rebels on the Tory benches to Labour’s vote the government will be defeated. There is some obvious panic in the Treasury as the realisation has dawned that if Ed Balls marches Labour through the no-bailout door followed by the Tory rebels, the government will lose. Excluding minor parties it will be 339 votes to 282 against more bailout cash.
There are more Tory €uro-rebels than LibDem MPs, yet it’s Clegg and the swivel-eyed Europhiles with their hands on the tiller…
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Knifed former civil service chief Bob Kerslake on his recent troubles:
“Many thks for kind wishes following back opn. Incision measured 16cm. A pretty big knife in the back! Photos on request.”