Saturday, June 16, 2012

GDP Growth Was Higher in the 1930s

On the Today programme yesterday morning Ed Balls claimed Osborne has made a giant mistake and cuts in public spending are the same mistake made by Snowden in the 1930s. Balls is wrong, as a recent pamphlet from the Centre for Policy Studies by George Trefgarne shows. After the 1929-31 Wall Street Crash the British economy recovered rapidly in the 1930s:

If only we currently had a growth rate like they averaged in the thirties…

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

End of Piers’ Show

When Piers Morgan began his gig at CNN he told us: “judge me after a year”. Well time is up and the viewers have spoken, with ratings for his beleaguered talk show plummeting by over 50% after twelve months. Over the last month Piers averaged just 395,000 viewers, even hitting an axe-worthy all-time low of 39,000 in the crucial 25-54 age group. His Jubilee coverage this weekend may have given him an undeserved upward ratings blip. It was so cringe-making it was the butt of jokes from Jon Stewart. 

And it isn’t just viewing figures that are cause for concern for Morgan and his bosses. With Jeremy Paxman royally landing him in it at Leveson last month it is expected that Piers will be recalled for a second chat with Brian and Mr Jay. This time he won’t get away with plugging his book via video-link.

A year ago Piers would never have thought he’d be fighting for his job on two fronts. Guido wonders whether it will be ratings or phone-hacking that forces CNN’s hand. Let’s judge it in a year’s time…

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Handy Lunchtime VAT Chart

From this morning’s City AM

Friday, May 25, 2012

Small is Beautiful

Guido really likes this video from the wonks at the Centre for Policy Studies, it animates a very clear message, around the world lower taxes lead to higher growth rates.

The data is pretty clearly presented, are you watching Mr Osborne?

Friday, May 18, 2012

The Boris Doughnut

Thursday, May 3, 2012

London GLA Projections

YouGov, who were the most accurate pollsters in London 4 years ago, have produced projections for the Greater London Assembly. The good news is they expect the BNP to be wiped out, the bad news is that London could be looking at a Red-Green majority in the assembly trying to thwart Boris on cost cutting. In Germany Red-Green governed cities have veered to the far left.

It is still close and with the Tories polling double digits behind Labour since the budget, Boris has to overcome a tough national polling deficit. Paddick, despite being a better candidate than he was in 2008, is not expected to poll in double digits and UKIP are projected to cement their claim to be the third party gaining two seats and equaling the LibDems. The graphic below shows how London became Boris Town in 2008:

The suburbs besieged inner London to take control of City Hall from Red Ken…

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Public Negativity Towards Cameron, Clegg, Miliband Maxing Out

YouGov regularly asks respondents do they approve or disapprove of the party leaders. Subtracting disapproval from approval gives a net approval rating. Guido can’t recall public negativity towards politicians being higher.

Collectively it stands at -121, that is minus one hundred and twenty-one. Dave’s personal ratings are at an all time low at -27, Clegg’s continue to be the worst at -53 and despite a bad week for the Tories, Ed Miliband’s personal rating went down further to -41. In short, the public hates all politicians.

The political class can forget forcing the public to pay for politics. We hate them all. The Guidoised perception of politics is mainstream…

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Zero GDP Growth Has Zero To Do With €urozone

Last week’s shrinking GDP figures were spun by George Osborne as due to the crisis in the €urozone. The decline in GDP could hardly be blamed on the US market which is picking up and growing at a respectable 2.8% last quarter, nor on Asian markets where China grew at an annualised 8.9% and India at 7.8%.

Is the decline in UK GDP really, as George Osborne implies, down to economic trade with the crisis ridden continent falling? The answer is no.

UK exports to €urozone states actually rose a healthy 11.3% last year:

It is a myth that the decline in GDP has anything to do with the €uro-crisis leading to a decline in exports to the €urozone. The barriers to growth are a domestic problem… 

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Clegg’s Progressive £10,000 Threshold Hike
Benefits Low Income Earners Most

A lot of chaff is being thrown up about the £10,000 tax threshold hike being pushed by Clegg this morning. Matthew Sinclair over at the Taxpayers’ Alliance has sent this chart proving the point Guido has been making all day. Those on low earnings benefit proportionately the most.

Those on lower earnings, e.g. the second decile (£10,853 according to ONS data) will see their post-tax earnings rise by 4.7%, those in the highest decile will see their post tax earnings rise by just 1.1%. Now some policy wonks on the left complain that middle income earners will see their post tax income rise by some 2% and that this is “a waste of money”. The squeezed middle-classes need some help as well, this is a good thing, not a flaw. The hike shouldn’t be paid for by once again shifting the higher rate threshold either. The coalition parties should stop piling on the pressure on the very demographic that voted them into office to cut taxes…

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Guido Co-conspirators’ Top 12 Book Buys

Guido’s blog reading co-conspirators are massive consumers of books, usually bought online courtesy of Amazon. According to the online retailer our reader’s favourite top purchases of 2011 were:

  1. Let Them Eat Carbon: The Price of Failing Climate Change Policies
  2. The Silent State: Secrets, Surveillance and the Myth of British Democracy
  3. Zetter’s Political Companion
  4. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
  5. The Big Red Book of New Labour Sleaze
  6. The Triumph of the Political Class
  7. Human Action: A Treatise on Economics
  8. Back from the Brink: 1,000 Days at Number 11
  9. Ed: The Milibands and the making of a Labour leader
  10. Dirty politics, Dirty times
  11. The Rise of Political Lying
  12. A Walk-On Part: Diaries 1994-1999 (Mullin Diaires 3)

E-editions and books were combined. Pugnacious Mehdi Hasan really should be less chippy given how many of his books Guido helps shift…


Seen Elsewhere

Why Pollsters Could Be Wrong | John McDermott
Cameron Faces Vote of No Confidence or Rebellion | FT
Cameron Faces Revolt Over ‘Vow’ | Sun
It’s Time to Speak for England | John Redwood
It Was Me Who Taped Howard Flight | John Woodcock
Indy Editor: We Will Stay Afloat | Press Gazette
English Don’t Want Scotland to Stay at Any Price | Dan Hodges
England Must Have Self-Government Too | Mark Wallace
Next Year’s Election Will Be the Dirtiest Ever | Speccie
Chicken Salmond Runs Away From Sun Cabbie | Sun
Scary No Messages Don’t Add Up | Sun


VOTER-RECALL
Find out more about PLMR


Gyles Brandreth writes in his memoirs:

“Sunday, May 10, 1998

Early start: appearing on Breakfast With Frost, to be broadcast from 11 Downing Street. The Chancellor [Gordon Brown] is grouchily amiable, but so earnest — and still biting his fingernails to the quick.

After the show, he took us upstairs to his flat. He lives above No 10, while Blair and family are in the No 11 duplex, which is bigger and more like a proper house.

I was intrigued that, when he took us into his bedroom, the Chancellor rather ostentatiously opened the built-in wardrobes, as if he wanted us to see the women’s frocks that were hanging in there.

They looked quite large, but I don’t think they belong to Gordon. I assume they belong to his girlfriend [Sarah Macaulay, who he later married].

I presume he was keen for us to know that he has one — and that she’s not a ‘beard’. I don’t think he does anything without calculation.”



The British media are Hunts says:

Now the SNP know how UKIP voters feel all the time.


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