Friday, April 26, 2013

How Tax Credits Are Set to Rocket

Hardly a surprise, but confirmation from Sajid Javid that the government projects billions more will be spent on tax credits over the next few years. The total spend on child tax and working tax credits has jumped from £24.1 billion in 2008-9 to £29.9 billion this year. The figure is projected to rise again to £32.5 billion by 2017-18. Austerity, what austerity?

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Polly’s Singapore Spin Unravels

Taking Polly Toynbee’s increasingly fact-free rants with a pinch of salt is generally good advice, but there is a difference between her standard spin and a complete falsehood. In a typical Gove-bashing piece for the Guardian today Polly asserts:

“Gove, calling for payment by results, cited Singapore’s high-achieving school system, “where expectations are higher”. What he didn’t say is that Singapore, like top performer Finland, is one of the most equal of developed nations. As his government drives up inequality, his schools face an ever tougher task compensating for the society they inhabit.”

Only Singapore isn’t one of the most equal developed nations. In fact, it is one of the most unequal. The country is currently dealing with one of the most severe income gaps in the world, indeed it has one of the highest Gini coefficients – the standard measure used to gauge inequality – of developed countries. But why let the facts get in the way of your see-through agenda, eh Polly?

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Poor Got Richer Under Thatcher

One of Maggie’s many memorable memories from the House is her slap down of a young, snivelling Simon Hughes. Channel 4 FactCheck show that she was entirely right: wages went up across the whole spectrum, including for the poorest.

IFS figures show median earnings went up faster under Thatcher than under Major or during Blair’s second and third terms. Everyone got richer on Maggie’s Farm, including the poor. It comes down to this: would you rather be more equal but poorer, or less equal but better off?

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Tale of Two Austerities

In the Commons right now Ed Balls is giving George Osborne a kicking over his “failed austerity” programme. How does it compare with other austerity programmes?

irish-austerity
Since the credit crisis Ireland has cut government spending by 19% in cash terms.

uk-austerity

Over the same period Britain has increased government spending by 3% in cash terms.

What austerity?

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Poll: Public Support Spare Room Subsidy Reforms

Liam Byrne calls it a “hated tax”, Jim Murphy says the government should “listen” to the public. Most damning of all, Owen Jones warns of the disastrous electoral consequences of the government’s changes to the spare room subsidy:

“A warning to Number 10. You calculate your attempt to demonise benefit claimants has paid off, removing all potential empathy. But – unfortunately for you – most are decent people. When the electorate realise you are inflicting misery not on “scroungers”, but on some of the most vulnerable in society, your campaign will fail. You bank on the suffering remaining below the radar, and you will be proved wrong. We will hammer you with the consequences, and, in time, you will be defeated.”

Apparently not content with peddling the bedroom “tax” lie, a YouGov poll shows Labour aren’t being entirely truthful about what the public think, either. Awkwardly, 49% of the public support the government’s reforms, compared to just 38% against. Even 34% of Labour voters support the policy. They won the battle on how the debate was framed in the media, but despite what Owen says the “decent people” he talks of recognise that the reforms make sense…

UPDATE: At least one Shadow minister is finally listening to the public:

Monday, March 4, 2013

David Ruffley Staff Saga: You Won’t Like Him When He’s Angry

Tory backbencher David Ruffley has placed a new advert for a research assistant in his Westminster office. Again.

The W4MP wesbite, which advertises job openings in parliament, often carries an advert for the Office of David Ruffley MP. Almost every month, in fact.

A Guidorama investigation can reveal that Ruffley has had at the very least 16 staffers over the last two years – a phenomenally high turnover for a backbench office. Frances Carlisle, Matthew Jupp, Hannah Lloyd, Emma Finch, Ben Rowe, Virginia Tuck, Madeleine Smart, Martin Smith, Katy Turner, Rachel Mawby, Michael Webb, Florence Cheek, Michael Horwood, George Rees, Harry Thomson and Nina Rosen have all been lucky enough to take part in the the hit series Westminster’s Toughest Job.

Ruffley’s man-management skills are the stuff of parliamentary folklore, and Guido hears reports of his “obnoxious” behaviour leading to bright-eyed hopefuls leaving his office in floods of tears, some binned after only days. Apparently, “to have been fired by Ruffers at some point is a rite of passage”. While no doubt some members of staff left for good reason, things have become so “shouty” recently that Ruffley has been reported to party whips over his behaviour. The job is still up for grabs – the closing date for applications is March 20th.

Monday, February 18, 2013

Smallest and Youngest Downing Street Team on Record


As Guido revealed in yesterday’s Sun column, there is some truth to the much-levelled charge that Downing Street is overrun with “kids”. The PM’s team is smaller and younger than at any point in the last ten years. The Prime Minister’s Office currently employs 181 staffers, almost 50 fewer than at the peak of Tony Blair’s government. Their average age is 39, lower than any point in the last ten years other than 2004/5, when it was the same. And they’ve been getting younger since Dave took office…

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Labour Taxed Poor More and Rich Less Than Coalition

With the dividing lines for the next election seemingly drawn at PMQs, one of Ed’s main attack lines is the claim that the Tories are hurting the poor and helping the rich. But do the stats back him up? According to HMRC these are the average income tax rates across the pay scale comparing Labour between 2009-10 and the Coalition for 2012-13:

income-tax

It is clear that lower earners paid more income tax under Labour than they do under the Coalition, while high earners are paying more now than they did back in 2009-10. This graph shows the relative percentage change in average income tax rates between Labour and the Coalition:

income-tax-2

Guido isn’t too happy about the higher-earners end of things, believing that the rich have suffered enough already and we are beyond Laffer optimal tax rates, though you can bet the Conservatives are rather pleased they listened to the LibDems and raised the lower threshold. This should be hammered home by the Tories every single day until the election…

Sunday, August 12, 2012

YouGov: Boris v Dave

Boris is positively out-polling the PM nationally…

Via Sun

Saturday, June 16, 2012

GDP Growth Was Higher in the 1930s

On the Today programme yesterday morning Ed Balls claimed Osborne has made a giant mistake and cuts in public spending are the same mistake made by Snowden in the 1930s. Balls is wrong, as a recent pamphlet from the Centre for Policy Studies by George Trefgarne shows. After the 1929-31 Wall Street Crash the British economy recovered rapidly in the 1930s:

If only we currently had a growth rate like they averaged in the thirties…


Seen Elsewhere

Full Jenkin/Beckett/Straw Letter to PM | Politics Home
The ‘Buckingham Bonaparte’ is Cornered | Speccie
Coalition: The Movie | Indy
Lefties Moan About Messina Working For Cameron | MSNBC
Karen Danczuk V Louise Mensch: Round 48 | Sun
Jack Straw Slams Bercow | Sky News
Putin Shuts Down Red Square McDonalds | Telegraph
Paper Trail Suggests Ashcroft Still Funding Tories | Indy
Bradford Bun Fight Coming | Speccie
Former Minister’s Join ‘Canberra Caterer’ Outcry | The Times
Stop Bercow | The Times


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Westbourne-Change-Opinion hot-button


Lord Glasman tells it like it is:

“The first thing is to acknowledge that Labour has been captured by a kind of aggressive public sector morality which is concerned with the individual and the collective but doesn’t understand relationships.”



Owen Jones says:

We also need Zil lanes.


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