‘Shy’ Tories Actually Just Busy, Labour Voters Home More

It is often said half-teasingly that canvassers and pollsters are more likely to meet Labour voters than Tories because Tory voters are still at work. Now there is empirical evidence for the claim. Professor John Curtice, perhaps the only pollster with his reputation intact after he called the 2015 election, says there is no such thing as “shy” Tories skewing polls, they are just “busy“. Curtice’s study found that if polls were based on people who answered the door on a first visit, Labour would be six points ahead. If polls were based on those who needed three to six visits before answering, the Tories had an 11 point lead. His conclusion: Labour voters were more likely to be at home rather than out at work.

“Conservatives are just simply more difficult to get hold of. There is an availability bias. People who you can get hold of first time round, who say, ‘oh yes come in’ are disproportionately Labour voters. The people you can easily get hold of are not representative.”

As the old joke goes, the Tory voters really were still at work…

Cabinet in Numbers: Just 7 Brexiters

may cabinet data

Guido has been crunching the numbers for May’s new Cabinet. There are only seven Brexiters, one more than in Cameron’s last Cabinet. There are only eight female members, one more than previously, hardly a march of the women. Most of the key Cameron and Osborne allies have gone though there remain nine Cabinet members who could be described as Friends of George. And there are just two ethnic minorities (half the number of Davids), though that is representative of the wider population. It’s still a heavily male, Remain Cabinet…

How Carter Ruck’s Attempt to Gag Google Failed

elton

In his judgement Lord Justice Jackson effectively ruled that injunctions cannot remain in place once knowledge of the injucted information is widespread:

“The court should not make orders which are ineffective. It is inappropriate – some may used a stronger term – for the court to ban people from saying that which is common knowledge… Knowledge of the relevant matters is now so widespread that confidentiality has probably been lost”

Google search trends show that searches for “David Furnish” in the UK have increased to a trend score of 100 in the last few days, the maximum possible score relative to previous searches for his name:

furnish

Searches for “Daniel Laurence”, the man who claims he had an olive oil paddling pool threesome with Furnish, have also increased to a score of 100:

WWWW

This data shows just those who already knew to search those specific names. Several times as many people will have discovered the identities simply by searching “celebrity injunction”:

INJ

Carter Ruck’s attempts to threaten Google into taking down search results revealing the identities failed completely. As Lord Justice Jackson says, knowledge has become widespread…

MP Referendum List: Latest Update

Penny Mordaunt is set to campaign to leave the EU, reports the Sunsomething readers of Guido’s MP referendum list already knew. (The Speccie’s list had her down as an Inner.) This morning the BBC are claiming as an exclusive the news that new Tory backbencher Will Quince will vote to Leave. He was of course down as an Outer on Guido’s list days ago.

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/pubhtml” query=”widget=true&headers=false” /]

Click here to view the entire spreadsheet.

Since Guido published his crowd-sourced list of how MPs will be voting, several have been in touch to emphasise that they have not declared. We expect the down-tick of Tory MPs for Out to continue as past Leavers change their minds. You can get in touch with amendments by using this form

No, Britain Has Not Accepted Just 216 Syrian Refugees

The claim that Britain has accepted a mere 216 Syrian refugees has gone viral on social media, being shared thousands and thousands of times by worthy types who retweet without fact-checking. Just one problem: it’s nonsense.

Official government figures show that we had 1,688 asylum applications from Syrians in 2014, and a further 2,204 in 2015. The grant rate of 87% suggests some 3,400 Syrian refugees have come to Britain in the last two years, with around another 2,000 being accepted in 2011 and 2012. Whether you think that is enough is another question, but the true figure is more than is being claimed…

H/T @mjhsinclair/@FullFact

Truth About MP’s Online Adultery Account

ashley madison michelle

Following the revelation that an email address belonging to SNP MP Michelle Thomson was used by somebody to sign up to adultery website Ashley Madison, Guido asked a highly trained data monkey – Jeremy Bullock from Centrix Software – to take a forensic look at all the available information related to the account. Here’s what he found…

1. The email address is flagged as invalid
2. The account was last updated on 30/04/2015 19:06:57
3. The postcode given was EH12 7AF
4. Date of Birth 01/01/1978
5. Her nickname was stated as ‘michsnp’ rather than the usual prosaic variety
6. The sign up ip address was 81.98.177.38
7. There is no data in the am_am.member table. This records preferences, looking for, etc etc and is the definitive record for signup
8. There are no credit card transactions recorded for her

From the data it seems evident that someone other than Michelle Thomson signed up for the account. Definitely a prank…

No, Corbynmania is Not “Sweeping the Nation”

“A movement is born,” claimed Jezza’s unofficial PR man Owen Jones last week: “across the nation, in every village and town and city you can see this movement emerging”. The hyperbole is even more generous in Owen’s interview with the man himself today: “in the last few weeks Corybnmania has swept across the country”. Well, has it?

The latest figures show there are around 270,000 Labour members.

In addition, around 70,000 have joined as affiliated supporters.

50,000 are so-called ‘registered supporters’.

A total of 390,000 people.

The voting age population of the UK is 50,780,423.

If we (generously) assume that around half of all those affiliated with the Labour Party support Corbyn – 195,000 people – then what proportion of the voting population is a Corbynista? Just 0.38%. 

Hardly sweeping the country…

Londoners Look to Driverless Tubes

The tube strike is over and, courtesy of Google Trends, Techno can provide some insight into what Londoners thought of the £50,000-a-year drivers who made them late for work. Searches for “driverless trains” rocketed over the last 24 hours…

driverless trains london

As Techno has revealed before, the only thing stopping the introduction of driverless tubes is the lack of political will to get tough on the trade unionists currently driving them. Robots don’t strike…

What the Welfare Budget Looks Like Minus Pensions

Counting pensions as an old age ‘benefit’ has provided lefties with data-based ammunition against small state conservatives who want to slash the welfare bill. Looking at the graph below, targeting proportionally tiny housing benefits or tax credits looks futile – superficially at least – when 42% of the ‘welfare’ budget is spent on pensions:

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1vXCiAwCbaBdMzp6ZxeY2ag2NCQw3SRKQxZNGd81W9qk/pubchart” query=”oid=1772904818&format=interactive” width=”540″ height=”400″ /]

You can see why lefties love using this statistic – it grossly skews the welfare bill to make it look like we hardly spend anything on the things their opponents want to cut.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

No, 250,000 People Did Not Protest On Saturday

_83757829_de27-1

Numbers have never been a strong point for the left. Hence why Owen Jones and his new mate Charlotte Church were pushing the quarter of a million figure for Saturday’s march in London. It’s nonsense.

Even lefties are sceptical:

[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Official: Lazy Socialists Lost the Election

Most of the analysis of the pollsters’ collective nightmare has blamed the ‘Shy Tories’ – people who planned on voting Tory but didn’t tell the pollsters. Ipsos MORI have a different theory: that ‘Lazy Labour’ supporters not turning up to vote skewed the numbers.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

More BBC Website Bias: Food Bank Headline Claim Made Up

The BBC website lost all semblance of editorial impartiality yesterday, but how are they faring today? This headline makes their homepage this morning:

The claim comes from a report by the Trussell Trust, press released this morning as “Food bank use tops one million for first time”.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

The Graph That Ruins Miliband’s Argument

Even after Labour’s manifesto mea culpa about fiscal responsibility, Ed would still not say he thought Labour spent too much before the crisis. He had his audience cheering as he yelled “absolutely we were right to invest in those things”:

Miliband told the Labour manifesto launch:

“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…”

Really, Ed?[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Public Wake Up to Election

After five years of the public ignoring politics, it seems the election is finally getting cut through. Though Labour will disappointed at how little the public noticed their non-dom hit:

Don’t you know there’s a war on?[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Labour Losing the PPC/Oxbridge Social Mobility Battle

Well this is awkward for The People’s Party. Should Labour be the largest party in parliament, 25.51% of MPs are likely to be Oxbridge graduates. However, that number drops to 20.86% in a Conservative-led Parliament. According to research and analysis by the Insight Consulting Group, more newly-elected MPs would be university educated in a Parliament where Labour has the largest party (158) as opposed to the Conservatives (139).[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

No Natalie, Capitalism Has Delivered an 80% Decline in World Poverty

As newsrooms across the land stop what they are doing to read the Green Party’s response to Labour’s non-dom announcement, it is worth picking Natalie Bennett up on this:

“The last four decades have seen wealth accumulate at the top of society while those at the bottom struggle to get by.”

Now hold on just a darn prosperity-spreading cotton-picking second. […] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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