Campaign Report: Day 5

Leave message: Gove makes case for Brexit, mocks Remainer’s scaremongering.

Michael Gove EU Speech

Remain message: All the smart people back Remain, including Bill Gates.

gates-euref

Cut through: Juncker’s pessimistic comments on EU meddling hit front pages.

Leave social media count: 327,040 likes, 36,012 followers.

Remain social media count: 357,748 likes, 24,037 followers.

Odds: Leave 13/8, Remain 4/7

Latest poll: Remain 52% (+1) Leave 43% (-1) (ORB, phone). Poll of Polls is now Remain 52 (+1) Leave 48 (-1).

Creagh: Vote Remain For Dolphins in the Thames

Creagh River

Mary Creagh has come up with a brilliant environmental justification for staying in the EU. Apparently we have Brussels to thank for “seals and even dolphins making regular appearances down river… where once it was dangerous to swim or swallow the water, it is now safe for humans and wildlife”. Righto…

Does Creagh’s argument that “the EU played a huge part in these environmental improvements” stack up? Well, the EU’s $100 billion-a-year Emissions Trade Scheme infamously bankrolled a scam allowing Chinese and Indian firms to generate a harmful greenhouse gas called HFC-23, then claim money from European taxpayers to destroy it. The Environmental Investigation Agency called it the “biggest environmental scandal in history”. Even if EU membership means we can drink from the Thames, not sure that makes up for the millions of taxpayer cash blown on a greenhouse gas scam…

Gove’s Truth Bullets For Project Fear

“The City of London would become a ghost down, our manufacturing industries would be sanctioned more punitively than even communist North Korea, decades would pass before a single British Land Rover or Mr Kipling cake could ever again be sold in France and in the meantime our farmers would have been driven from the land by poverty worse than the Potato Famine. 

To cap it all, an alliance of Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump, emboldened by our weakness, would, like some geopolitical equivalent of the Penguin, Catwoman and the Joker, be liberated to spread chaos worldwide and subvert our democracy. 

I sometimes think that the In campaign appears to be operating to a script written by George RR Martin and Stephen King. Brexit would mean a combination of A Feast for Crows and Misery.

It’s a deeply pessimistic view of the British people’s potential, and a profoundly negative vision of the future which just isn’t rooted in reality. The idea that if Britain voted to leave the European Union we would instantly become some sort of hermit kingdom – a North Atlantic North Korea, only without that country’s fund of international good will – it’s a fantasy, it’s a phantom, it’s a great grotesque patronising and preposterous Peter Mandelsonian conceit, that imagines that the people of this country are mere children, capable of being frightened into obedience by conjuring up new bogeymen every night.”

Michael Gove sums up Project Fear and the Remain campaign’s “bogeymen”…

Campaign Report: Day 4

Leave message: Osborne admits we cannot control immigration if we stay in the EU.

Remain message: Brexit will cost each household £4,300.

image

Cut through: Osborne’s Treasury report row.

Leave social media count: 325,493 likes, 35,520 followers.

Remain social media count: 352,289 likes, 23,629 followers.

Odds: Leave 7/4, Remain 4/7

Latest poll: Remain 45% (-3) Leave 38% (-3) (via ComRes, phone). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51, Leave 49

Corbyn Questions Osborne’s Figures

Pretend Remain campaigner Jeremy Corbyn sees through Osborne’s £4,300 spin:

“I’m not sure where he gets the figure from… I want to hear where he gets them from”

The top headline on BBC News this evening is “Treasury’s EU exit forecast sparks row”. This could have gone better for the Chancellor…

Dodgy Predictions: Osborne’s Equations from Long Discredited Model

Treasury Gravity Model

Lobby journalists and MPs have reacted with bewilderment at the Treasury’s use of a number of complex mathematical equations to underpin their argument for Brexit. This much vaunted analysis was based on a “gravity model”, a device used to model “trade flows between two countries as a function of economic variables such as GDP, geographic..and cultural variables”.

Well, the Treasury’s gravity model has been discounted numerous times for its use in predicting the impact that large scale economic changes will have on the economy. In 2005 Patrick Minford, Vidya Mahambare and Eric Nowell first looked at how useful gravity models were in predicting the effects of Brexit. Their conclusion was that they were far too simplistic:

“The gravity model may work numerically, and be more accurate in detail, for quite general changes in conditions, like a general drop in transport costs, mirroring globalisation, which is what Costinot and Rodiguez-Clare use it for. The problem with using it for a shock to trade structure like the UK leaving a customs union is that the responses will certainly not be the same as for a general globalisation shock; indeed such a shock changes the UK’s internal structure substantially, in a way not assumed in a gravity model.”

Essentially, the gravity model can’t take into account the numerous complexities that would arise in the event of Brexit. These sentiments are reiterated by Alan Deardorff, Professor of International Economics at the University of Michigan. Deardforff remarks in this paper on gravity models, that their sheer scope mean their “use for empirical tests of any of them is suspect”. So it looks like Osborne’s been too clever by half. His model has been long discredited. You can’t use a few trade equations to predict the future, they are only good for baffling hacks…

Tory MPs’ Verdict on Osborne

Boris: “The Treasury has not been totally successful in all its economic forecasts, let’s be honest.”

Peter Bone: “Treasury’s economic predictions are speculative at best, deceitful at worst”

The response of the Tory benches to the Chancellor’s speech this morning…

Treasury’s Case For Remain in 8 Equations

Osborne and Amber Rudd have directly challenged Boris to respond to the Treasury’s case for Remain. Here it is:

7

Pray for the Lobby journalists currently trying to decipher the document. The Treasury goes for the ‘Baffle ’em with BS’ approach…

EU Funded Tata Spin

save our steel

Despite the evidence that EU taxes and regulations contributed to the decline of the British steel industry, the Remain campaign are spinning hard that Brussels actually helped Tata Steel. A report by consultancy firm CE Delft was pushed by […]

+ READ MORE +

Arron Banks Won’t Seek Judicial Review

“I have spent a lot of time and so much money, alongside many others, over the past few months and years making sure this referendum happened, and more than anything we wanted to make sure it happened fairly. We have

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Farage Buries Hatchet With Vote Leave

Guido hears Chris Grayling will be the first Cabinet member to share a stage with Nigel Farage during the referendum campaign. They are due to appear under a Grassroots Out banner at a rally in Stoke on Monday. Very welcome […]

+ READ MORE +

Vote Leave Granted Official Designation

The Electoral Commission has chosen Vote Leave as the designated lead campaigners for the Leave side during the EU referendum:

“We received two high quality applications on the ‘Leave’ side, from ‘Vote Leave Ltd’ and ‘The Go Movement Ltd’. After

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Cameron’s closest friend in politics Steve Hilton backs Brexit:

“A decision to leave the EU is not without risk, but I believe it is the ideal and idealistic choice for our times. Taking back power from arrogant, unaccountable, hubristic elites and putting it where it belongs. In people’s hands.”

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