Whips Pressuring Leave MPs to Defect

Screen Shot 2016-06-08 at 20.34.54

Guido is getting reports that whips are calling up moderate Leave MPs and putting pressure on them to defect to Remain. A number of Tory backbenchers say they have been contacted by whips with overtures such as “you don’t want to be associated with Farage’s view of Britain”. A senior Tory tells Guido to expect a defection from a long-term “sceptic” to Remain tonight…

RUMOUR: Sarah Wollaston to Quit Vote Leave

Screen Shot 2016-06-08 at 20.34.54

Rumours are doing the rounds that Tory MP Sarah Wollaston is about to quit Vote Leave. The career contrarian is supposedly due to attack their £350 million figure – which oddly she has already criticised on numerous occasions before, so it’s strange she is suddenly upset about it. Her Euroscepticism must have been pretty thin if she’s wavering on this…

Campaign Report: 15 Days to Go

Hancock

Leave message: Raab says: massive advantages to controlled migration.

Remain message: Hague says: Leave is a risk to the economy.

Cut through: Voter registration extended until June 9.

Leave social media count: 464,699 likes, 54,049 followers.

Remain social media count: 461,798 likes, 35,398 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3, Leave 14/5

Latest poll: Remain 43% (+2), Leave 42% (-3) (YouGove, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51%, Leave 49%.

Leave Overtakes Remain on Facebook

Referendum likes

On the whole, Facebook often lacks Twitter’s faster political edge. Yet as shown by the general election, it matters far more…

While Remain always lacked Twitter* followers, it carried the edge regarding Facebook likes – until today. With Guido’s daily campaign report showing the two campaigns being neck and neck yesterday, it would appear that Farage’s (or Cameron’s) performance last night was enough to push some as-yet-undecided Facebook users over the edge, lending Leave 4,500 extra followers overnightArron Banks fans screaming “split campaign” should remember Guido only started tracking likes after Vote Leave got the official designation…

What does this mean? Facebook offers politicos the opportunity to appeal directly to users with targeted messages from their page. Using the vast array of data stored on each Facebook profile – likes, location, events attended – these posts can be laser precise while not subject to the clamour of Twitter’s left-wing echo chamber. If that isn’t convincing enough, the Tories chose to spend £1 million more than Labour on Facebook alone in 2015. Twitter wins columnists, Facebook wins votes…

*At the time of going to pixel @Vote_Leave has 53,946 followers and @StrongerIn has 35,256 followers.

Farage and Cameron Highlights

Farage said we won’t be bullied by Juncker:

And he brought a prop:

This was Cameron’s toughest moment: 

Cameron still doesn’t have a line on immigration – these questions reflect genuine public concern about strain on public services. Hard to paint them as Little Englanders.

Cameron Wants Serbia, Turkey to Join EU

More evidence that Cameron is not telling the truth about his real view of Turkey joining the EU…

Campaign Report: 16 Days to Go

dave

Leave message: EU rules mean we can’t extradite foreign villains.

Remain message: Last day to register to vote.

Cut through: PM bashes Brexit “Untruths”.

Leave social media count: 459,406 likes, 52,615 followers.

Remain social media count: 459,661 likes, 34,817 followers.

Odds: Remain 4/11, Leave between 13/5 and 11/4

Latest poll: Remain 43% (+2), Leave 42% (-3) (YouGove, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51%, Leave 49%.

Tory Turncoat Tipped For Peerage

GEOFFREY VAN ORDEN

Tory MEP Geoffrey Van Orden, famous for sharing a Fanny with Kanye West, is a self-proclaimed “dyed-in-the-wool Eurosceptic”. On his own website he boasts:

“I didn’t become an MEP in order to promote the EU – I want us to govern our own country”

Last month he said:

“I oppose so much of what goes on in this place (European Parliament) and in the European Union. I think a lot of it is detrimental to British interests and indeed in the interest of many of our European countries”

And he threatened to back Brexit unless Cameron achieved “tangible change”. You’ll never guess what…

Today he has ‘done a Mak‘ and come out for Remain. Sir Geoffrey is set to retire at the end of this term. This will only fuel the rumours he’s been offered a seat in the Lords…

Mercer Promised Constituents “Direct Democracy: You Call the Shots”

Johnny Mercer gave Guido a two word response for pointing out he’d ignored his own constituency referendum poll: “Total bollocks”. Johnny says his poll – which found 74% backed Leave – was “unscientific” and therefore he will be voting Remain anyway.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Hilary Benn: Uncontrolled Immigration “Part of the Deal” of Voting Remain

Four times Andrew Neil asked Hilary Benn if immigration could be controlled inside the EU. Three times he failed to answer, before eventually admitting it couldn’t. He says uncontrolled immigration “is part of the deal…”

Via @liarpoliticians
[…]

+ READ MORE +

Campaign Report: 17 Days to Go

nathalie bennett bse bus

Leave message: Stay and we’ll be paying for the Eurozone’s failure.

Remain message: Cameron, Farron, Harman and Bennett united: Leave must make plans clear.

Cut through: Polls changing drastically in Leave’s favour.

Leave social media count: 456,041 likes, 51,907 followers.

Remain social media count: 456,247 likes, 34,318 followers.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Owen Jones’ Lexit U-Turn

Owen Jones Lexit

Owen Jones is a fully signed-up Remainer these days. He has joined John McDonnell’s Another Europe is Possible group in calling for a “radical In vote” and spent today lamenting polls putting Leave ahead. Yet only a year ago Owen was a self-proclaimed Lexiteer, making the left-wing case for Leave.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Treasury Refuse to Answer EU Benefit Question FIVE Times

hmt

This time last year the Treasury admitted child benefit was exported to 30,000 children in other EU countries in 2014-2015. If you ask for this year’s numbers however, they aren’t keen to spill the beans…  

Ministers have refused to answer FIVE parliamentary questions on the cost of sending child benefit to other EU member states.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Bennett Battle Bus’ Giant Carbon Footprint

BENNETT

Natalie Bennett told Britain to vote Remain to save the planet this morning. Standing in front of a 12.4 tonne BSE battle bus…

Guido’s data bods have been crunching the numbers. A very conservative estimate tracks the bus as having covered some 900 miles since April.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Remainer Mercer Ignores Constituents

MERCER poll

To the surprise of absolutely no-one, Tory MP Johnny Mercer finally came out for Remain yesterday. This morning he writes for ConHome calling Farage “pathetic“. What Johnny doesn’t mention is that just a few weeks ago, when he was supposedly still making up his mind, he polled his constituents about how they would be voting.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Leave Lead By 5 Points With ICM

New ICM online poll out this morning:

Leave: 48% (+1)

Remain: 43% (-1)

Don’t Know: 9%

Without Don’t Knows:

Leave: 53%

Remain: 47%

All three polls out today have Leave in front…[…]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Sky’s Faisal Islam on the mood in Parliament at the moment:

“It’s a totally febrile atmosphere here. It’s kind of like Game of Thrones meets House of Cards – and if you chuck in the Labour Party – Laurel and Hardy too.”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

TRACKING #TORYLEADERSHIP CAMPAIGN 2016 TRACKING #TORYLEADERSHIP CAMPAIGN 2016
Gove’s Full Statement Gove’s Full Statement
AB FAB’S PATSY AND EDINA SPEAK ON BREXIT AB FAB’S PATSY AND EDINA SPEAK ON BREXIT
CORBYN GETS HIS NEW POLITICS AT LAST CORBYN GETS HIS NEW POLITICS AT LAST
CORBYNISTAS WEAPONISE CAMERON CORBYNISTAS WEAPONISE CAMERON
PM TO CORBYN: “FOR HEAVEN’S SAKE MAN, GO!” PM TO CORBYN: “FOR HEAVEN’S SAKE MAN, GO!”
GLOVES OFF: CRABB GOES FOR BORIS GLOVES OFF: CRABB GOES FOR BORIS
JEDIS FOR JEZ JEDIS FOR JEZ
DON’T TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 UNTIL THE DEAL IS CLEAR DON’T TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 UNTIL THE DEAL IS CLEAR
SNP CELEBRATE ENGLAND OUT OF EUROPE SNP CELEBRATE ENGLAND OUT OF EUROPE
LEADSOM WAITING FOR BORIS TO OFFER HER CHANCELLOR LEADSOM WAITING FOR BORIS TO OFFER HER CHANCELLOR
Happy Brexit Ma’am Happy Brexit Ma’am
SEUMAS’ BAD IDEA SEUMAS’ BAD IDEA
FARAGE VICTORY SPEECH TO EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT FARAGE VICTORY SPEECH TO EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
LABOUR COUP DAY 3 LABOUR COUP DAY 3
INSIDE THE PLP: “THE WORST SPEECH I HAVE EVER HEARD IN MY LIFE” INSIDE THE PLP: “THE WORST SPEECH I HAVE EVER HEARD IN MY LIFE”
“SAVE JEZ” SUPPORTERS DEMAND “100 NEW MPS” “SAVE JEZ” SUPPORTERS DEMAND “100 NEW MPS”
CAMERON ON LABOUR: “AND I THOUGHT I WAS HAVING A BAD DAY” CAMERON ON LABOUR: “AND I THOUGHT I WAS HAVING A BAD DAY”
JUNXIT! JUNCKER FACING CALLS TO RESIGN JUNXIT! JUNCKER FACING CALLS TO RESIGN