Leave: 45% (+4)
Remain: 46% (-6)
Remain’s 11 point lead last month disappears…
Leave message: Leave ministers commit to same level of EU funding post-Brexit.
Remain message: Corbyn: Stay, or the NHS gets it.
Cut through: The Sun comes out for Leave.
Odds: Remain 4/6, Leave 6/4
Latest poll: Remain 40% (-1), Leave 47% (+4) (TNS, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 49% (+1), Leave 51% (-1).
Worth 14 minutes of your time…
After yesterday’s gold standard ICM online and phone polls showing a robust Leave lead, TNS have released new figures showing 47% for Out and 40% for In. This means Leave are now ahead seven points – higher than any poll since YouGov’s nine point lead for Out in February. Remain have won just one poll in the last seven days…
A well-sourced article in the leading German news magazine Der Spiegel reports that Jean-Claude Juncker is set to make a major intervention in the referendum next week. They say Cameron made an extraordinary deal with Juncker whereby the Commission would keep quiet during the campaign, on the condition that he could intervene in the last few days if the polls had Brexit ahead:
“Juncker had to promise British Prime Minister David Cameron that the EU executive branch would stay out of the Brexit debate… Juncker only managed to convince Cameron to give him a small loophole: If Brexit supporters have a clear lead in polls in the week prior to the June 23 referendum, the Commission president will be allowed to make his voice heard. That, of course, would be too late to significantly shift public opinion, but it would mean that Juncker could not be accused of having done nothing to prevent a Brexit. Under no circumstances does Juncker want to go down in history as the first Commission president to preside over a member state departing the EU.”
The report also confirms Guido’s story from last month that the PM has asked Merkel to stay out of the campaign:
“an appeal from Cameron that Chancellor Angela Merkel stay out of the referendum debate. Even comments intended to provide support are not helpful, the Chancellery was informed”
So what’ll it be, a Scottish-style “vow” to the British people from cognac-swilling Commission chief? That should push Leave over the line…
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Asked about immigration on the Today programme, Alan Johnson, the chair of Labour’s Remain campaign, blamed “people” for not “listening” to their arguments:
“We’ve talked about immigration all the way through this. Sometimes people haven’t been listening to us.”
The Remain campaign in one soundbite: if we don’t win, it’s the voters’ fault…
Johnson went on to argue that remaining in the EU helps us control immigration. Voters are listening, and that’s Remain’s problem…
The Sun backs Brexit:
“The EU cannot reform.
Remain has conducted a deceitful campaign. It has been nasty, cynical, personally abusive and beneath the dignity of Britain.
Our country has a glorious history.
This is our chance to make Britain even greater, to recapture our democracy, to preserve the values and culture we are rightly proud of.
A VOTE FOR LEAVE IS A VOTE FOR A BETTER BRITAIN.”
Read their editorial in full here…
Meanwhile Leave are 7 points ahead with YouGov:
Leave: 46% (+3)
Remain: 39% (-3)
Don’t Know: 11% (nc)
Would Not Vote: 4% (nc)
Huge day for Leave…
As expected Andrew Tyrie came out for Remain today with a speech at the Centre for Policy Studies. Equally unsurprisingly, Tyrie told the room he was open to a government job in the future:
“I’ve always said it would be the greatest honour to serve in any government.”
Asked if Nadine Dorries was right that he’d been offered a “sniff of Osborne’s dirty socks”, he replied: “David Cameron’s never offered me anything.[…]
Forget World War 3. Forget pensions. Donald Tusk has trumped the lot with this piece of fear-mongering to end all fear-mongering:
“As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety.”
Has he been drinking with Juncker?[…]
These are the leaked diplomatic cables referenced by the Sunday Times which show British diplomats discussing plans to allow visa-free access to the UK for over a million Turks. The key sections are highlighted, for example this bombshell paragraph which argues Britain should “assess again the possibility of visa travel”.[…]
The Sunday Times has a great scoop: leaked cables reveal UK diplomats have discussed visa liberalisation for Turks coming to Britain, despite David Cameron’s pledge that “we won’t be offering visa-free access to Turks”. And there’s more…
Guido has been passed the cache of diplomatic cables.[…]
And she was a Remainer. WTF?[…]