Sunday, May 25, 2014

European Election Exit Polls

poll

The exit polls in from Europe so far show a strong anti-EU vote across the continent. The right-wing anti-EU People’s Party is top in Denmark, Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star party is second in Italy (according to test data), far left Syriza are top in Greece and Front National appear to have won in France. Britain’s results are expected after 10pm…

UPDATE: A table of exit polls as they come in is available here via @AlbertoNardelli.

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.

Friday, May 23, 2014

Leading Rebel Tory MPs Kick Back at UKIP Pact

Though Carswell, Bone, Jenkin and Rees Mogg broke cover last night to call for a UKIP pact, Tory high command seem pretty relaxed about it all. Grant Shapps even just took the mick out of Rees Mogg on live TV, and the fact it is four particularly suspect members of the usual suspects seems to have dampened the noise.

Interestingly, there has been an outbreak of loyalty amongst rebellious MPs, who have had their clashes with the leadership before. Previous troublemakers are pouring cold water on the pact idea. Philip Davies, a rebel with numerous causes, tells Guido:

“A national pact with UKIP is not going to happen so it is a pointless argument – that is probably one thing that Cameron and Farage do agree about! However, obviously I hope UKIP will stand aside for Better Off Out MPs (which may actually include some Lab ones like Kate Hoey) as they have in previous elections but that is a decision for them rather than us. Clearly though we need to focus on how we can win back Tories who have left us for UKIP.”

Senior insurgent Mark Pritchard adds:

“There is no need for a pact with UKIP. UKIP may have achieved a political tremor – but they are well short of the political earthquake they were predicting. There are still some good results for the Conservatives. A pact with UKIP would tie the Conservative Party’s hands when negotiating powers back from Europe – negotiations which need to be a realistic and achievable – rather than unrealistic” 

Even Michael Fabricant, who once called for a pact with UKIP, is now against it:

No.10 will feel rather chuffed if they can get the awkward squad to hold this line all the way until Monday. Whether they will feel that way in May 2015 is a different matter.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Final Polls Put UKIP in First

Sun/YouGov:

UKIP: 27%

Lab: 26%

Con: 22%

Green: 10%

LD: 9%

Mail/Opinium:

UKIP: 32%

Lab: 25%

Con: 21%

Green: 6%

LD: 6%

They’re predicting an earthquake…

Monday, May 19, 2014

WATCH: Establishment Lackey Disowns Nigel Farage

To summarise some of the politer Twitter responses, Neo-Guido, a salad-dodging establishment stooge, has sold out to the “LibLabCon”. Speaking on Channel 4 News last night he warned that Eurosceptics have growing concerns about UKIP’s impact on the Europe debate, saying that Farage’s comments on Romanians had “gone too far” and the relentless focus on immigration is damaging to the wider anti-EU cause.

Next this “EUSSR crony” will be “defending ZaNuLiebor”…

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Round-Up of Differing ComRes & ICM Poll Results

Thursday, May 15, 2014

The Balls Offensive

With Ed Balls dissing Douglas Alexander on LBC last night, this morning his wife Yvette Cooper has launched another broadside against the embattled election coordinator. As Guido reported earlier in the week, Alexander is under attack internally from the likes of Michael Dugher for not “taking the fight to UKIP”, and today that row has spilled over to the pages of the Mirror:

“Like their plans for NHS charges or millionaire tax cuts, UKIP’s Thatcherite policies are worse than David Cameron’s. Pulling out of Europe won’t help. That risks jobs. Better to get EU reforms – including better controls when countries join.

We mustn’t ignore UKIP … nor must we imitate them – we are challenging all the other parties because they have no answers to help working people.”

Finally it appears at least one faction in Labour has noticed the party ahead of them in the EU polling rather than being obsessed by the one languishing in last place. Looks a lot like a coordinated Balls camp shift…

Friday, May 9, 2014

Happy Europe Day!

UKIP will be delighted that the slogan for today’s Europe Day celebrations is “EU Open Doors”. Guido has yet to see the bunting be rolled in street parties across Britain, though according the EU’s website they are rather bizarrely marking the occasion in Venezuela, Mozambique and Swaziland. The whole thing is costing taxpayers €2 million, though for what only Herman van Rompuy knows. Alan Murad of Get Britain Out ain’t wrong:

“It is a slap in the face for taxpayers that the EU is wasting their money on vanity propaganda campaigns in places as far away as Venezuela, Mozambique and Swaziland! There is some irony the EU is now so unpopular in Europe that they have to go to a South American dictatorship to celebrate its very existence.”

Guido is off for a rioja…

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Pan-European Tax Burden Rising
Tax Liberation Day Receding

As Europe’s voters consider their choices here’s a list of their tax freedom days. Brits only stop working to pay for the welfare state next Monday:

tax-liberation-day
Typical workers across the EU saw their average real tax rate rise again this year, from 45.06% in 2013 to 45.27% in 2014. The rise of 1.28% since 2010 is largely a consequence of VAT increases in 19 of the 28 EU member states since 2009. This EU-wide study uses a consistent methodology to calculate how long people have to work in 28 EU member countries before they can keep their earnings and stop paying the state. Cypriot workers have the lightest burden, working until 21 March to finance their government. Belgians, who work until August 6, maintain their position as the worst afflicted. It is a noticeable coincidence that the four lowest tax countries have benefited from British rule… 

Sunday, May 4, 2014

YouGov: LibDems Now Behind Greens in Fifth Place


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