State of the Parties

The results are in, with the exception of Scotland which does not announce until later today. This is the state of the parties this morning:

Here is the BBC’s earthquake warning map:

You can see the results and all the MEPs elected in full here.

Herman van Rompuy, Jose Manuel Barroso, Jacques Delors, Cathy Ashton, Peter Mandelson, Ken Clarke, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, your boys took one hell of a beating…

European Election Results

SCOTLAND

SNP: 389,503
Lab: 348,219
Con: 231,330
UKIP: 140,534
Green: 108,305
LD: 95,319

MEPs: Ian Hudghton (SNP)David Martin (Lab)Ian Duncan (Con)Alyn Smith (SNP)Catherine Stihler (Lab)David Coburn (UKIP).

LONDON

Labour: 806,959
Con: 495,639
UKIP: 371,133
Green: 196,419
Lib Dem: 148,013

MEPs: Claude Moraes (Lab), Sayed Kamall (Con), Mary Honeyball (Lab), Gerard Batten (UKIP), Lucy Anderson (Lab), Charles Tannock (Con), Seb Dance (Lab), Jean Lambert (Green).

SOUTH EAST

UKIP: 751,439
Con: 723,571
Lab: 342,775
Green: 211,706
LD: 187,876

MEPs: Nigel Farage (UKIP), Dan Hannan (Con), Janice Atkinson (UKIP), Nirj Deva (Con), Annalise Dodds (Lab), Diane James (UKIP), Richard Ashworth (Con), Keith Taylor (Green), Catherine Bearder (LD), Ray Finch (UKIP).

WEST MIDLANDS

UKIP: 428,010
Lab: 363,033
Con: 330,470
LD: 75,648
Green: 71,464

MEPs: Jill Seymour (UKIP), Nina Gill (Lab), Philip Bradbourne (Con), Jim Carver (UKIP), Sion Simon (Lab), Anthea McIntyre (Con), Bill Etheridge (UKIP).

NORTH WEST

LAB: 594,063
UKIP: 481,932
CON: 351,985
Green: 123,075
LD: 105,487

MEPs: Theresa Griffin (Lab), Paul Nuttall (UKIP), Jaqueline Foster (Con), Afzal Khan (Lab), Louise Bours (UKIP), Julie Ward (Lab), Sajjid Karim (Con), Steven Woolfe (UKIP).

WALES

Lab: 206,332
UKIP: 201,983
Con: 127,742
Plaid: 111,864
Green: 33,275
LD: 28,930

MEPs: D. Vaughan (Lab)N. Gill (UKIP), K. Swinburne (Con), J. Evans (Plaid).

SOUTH WEST

UKIP: 484,184
Con: 433,151
Lab: 206,124
Green: 166,447
LD: 160,376

MEPs: William Dartmouth (UKIP), Ashley Fox (Con), Julia Reid (UKIP), Julie Girling (CON), Claire Moody (Lab), Molly Scott Cato (Green).

YORKSHIRE AND HUMBER

UKIP: 403,630
LAB: 380,189 
CON: 248,945
GREEN: 102,282
LD: 81,108

MEPs: Jane Collins (UKIP), Linda McAvan (Lab), T. Kirkhope (Con), A. Bashir (UKIP), R. Corbett (LAB), M. Hookem (UKIP).

EAST MIDLANDS

UKIP: 368,734
Con: 291,270
Lab: 279,363
Green: 67,066
LD: 60,773

MEPs: Roger Helmer (UKIP), Emma McClarkin (Con), Glenis Willmott (Lab), Margot Parker (UKIP), Andrew Lewer (Con).

EAST

UKIP: 542,812
Con: 446,569
Lab: 271,601
Green: 133,331
LD: 108,010

MEPs: Patrick O’Flynn (UKIP)Vicky Ford (Con), Richard Howitt (Lab), John Agnew (UKIP), Geoffry van Orden (Con), Tim Aker (UKIP), David Campbell-Bannerman (Con)

NORTH EAST

LAB – 221,988
UKIP – 177,660
CON – 107,773
LD – 36,093

MEPs: Jude Kirton-Darling (Lab), Paul Brannen (Lab), Jonathan Arnott (UKIP)

Martin Callanan, the leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, has lost his seat.

UKIP Top Poll in Newark

Two weeks til the by-election…

European Election Exit Polls

poll

The exit polls in from Europe so far show a strong anti-EU vote across the continent. The right-wing anti-EU People’s Party is top in Denmark, Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star party is second in Italy (according to test data), far left Syriza are top in Greece and Front National appear to have won in France. Britain’s results are expected after 10pm…

UPDATE: A table of exit polls as they come in is available here via @AlbertoNardelli.

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.

Leading Rebel Tory MPs Kick Back at UKIP Pact

Though Carswell, Bone, Jenkin and Rees Mogg broke cover last night to call for a UKIP pact, Tory high command seem pretty relaxed about it all. Grant Shapps even just took the mick out of Rees Mogg on live TV, and the fact it is four particularly suspect members of the usual suspects seems to have dampened the noise.

Interestingly, there has been an outbreak of loyalty amongst rebellious MPs, who have had their clashes with the leadership before. Previous troublemakers are pouring cold water on the pact idea. Philip Davies, a rebel with numerous causes, tells Guido:

“A national pact with UKIP is not going to happen so it is a pointless argument – that is probably one thing that Cameron and Farage do agree about! However, obviously I hope UKIP will stand aside for Better Off Out MPs (which may actually include some Lab ones like Kate Hoey) as they have in previous elections but that is a decision for them rather than us. Clearly though we need to focus on how we can win back Tories who have left us for UKIP.”

Senior insurgent Mark Pritchard adds:

“There is no need for a pact with UKIP. UKIP may have achieved a political tremor – but they are well short of the political earthquake they were predicting. There are still some good results for the Conservatives. A pact with UKIP would tie the Conservative Party’s hands when negotiating powers back from Europe – negotiations which need to be a realistic and achievable – rather than unrealistic” 

Even Michael Fabricant, who once called for a pact with UKIP, is now against it:

No.10 will feel rather chuffed if they can get the awkward squad to hold this line all the way until Monday. Whether they will feel that way in May 2015 is a different matter.

Final Polls Put UKIP in First

Sun/YouGov:

UKIP: 27%

Lab: 26%

Con: 22%

Green: 10%

LD: 9%

Mail/Opinium:

UKIP: 32%

Lab: 25%

Con: 21%

Green: 6%

LD: 6%

They’re predicting an earthquake…

WATCH: Establishment Lackey Disowns Nigel Farage

To summarise some of the politer Twitter responses, Neo-Guido, a salad-dodging establishment stooge, has sold out to the “LibLabCon”. Speaking on Channel 4 News last night he warned that Eurosceptics have growing concerns about UKIP’s impact on the Europe debate, saying that Farage’s comments on Romanians had “gone too far” and the relentless focus on immigration is damaging to the wider anti-EU cause.

Next this “EUSSR crony” will be “defending ZaNuLiebor”…

Round-Up of Differing ComRes & ICM Poll Results


ComRes
UKIP 35% (+1), Labour 24%, Con 20% (-2), Green 7% (+2), LibDem 6% (-2)

ICM
Labour 29% (-1), Con 26% (+4), UKIP 25% (-2) LibDem 7%

survey-round-up

This graph from Simon Lock captures the latest polls in an easy to […]

+ READ MORE +

The Balls Offensive

With Ed Balls dissing Douglas Alexander on LBC last night, this morning his wife Yvette Cooper has launched another broadside against the embattled election coordinator. As Guido reported earlier in the week, Alexander is under attack internally from the […]

+ READ MORE +

Happy Europe Day!

UKIP will be delighted that the slogan for today’s Europe Day celebrations is “EU Open Doors”. Guido has yet to see the bunting be rolled in street parties across Britain, though according the EU’s website they are rather bizarrely […]

+ READ MORE +

Pan-European Tax Burden Rising
Tax Liberation Day Receding

As Europe’s voters consider their choices here’s a list of their tax freedom days. Brits only stop working to pay for the welfare state next Monday:

tax-liberation-day
Typical workers across the EU saw their average real tax rate rise again this […]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Miliband is asked if he knows what ‘Yolo’ means by Time Out:

EM“No. What does it mean?

TO: “It stands for You Only Live Once.”

EM: “Is that right? That is a good philosophy for politics! It’s about a sense of adventure and doing what you want. Wow! I’ll use it from now on!”

TO: “Please don’t.”

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