Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Callanan for Commissioner

The saddest bit of news for the Tories from Euro results night was Martin Callanan losing his seat. The chairman of the European Conservatives and Reformists group is getting a lot of deserved support today. Paul Goodman makes the suggestion that he should be Dave’s choice for EU Commissioner. His case is a convincing one:

“He was a driving force behind making the ECR group work.  He knows how the Parliament and the Commission work.  Downing Street and Conservative MPs know him.  His Euro-sceptic views are long-standing, deeply-felt and real.  His centre of gravity on Britain’s membership is roughly the party’s centre of gravity.  Yes, he has just lost a Euro-election.  But he won three others.  One of our present commissioners, bless her, has never stood for election at all.”

James Kirkup agrees:

“Mr Callanan was a Conservative MEP and the leader of the Tory group in the Parliament until this week when he lost his seat. He’s well respected in Brussels and popular with party colleagues: just the balance needed to do the job as Mr Cameron hopes to undertake his great renegotiation. And he’s a very decent, modest man, as shown by his various interviews following his defeat. Really, Mr Cameron could do a lot worse than Callanan for Commissioner.”

Callanan is a good man, whose defeat was the price of UKIP splitting the vote on the right. The PM will struggle to find a better choice…

Monday, May 26, 2014

State of the Parties

The results are in, with the exception of Scotland which does not announce until later today. This is the state of the parties this morning:

Here is the BBC’s earthquake warning map:

You can see the results and all the MEPs elected in full here.

Herman van Rompuy, Jose Manuel Barroso, Jacques Delors, Cathy Ashton, Peter Mandelson, Ken Clarke, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, your boys took one hell of a beating…

Sunday, May 25, 2014

European Election Results

SCOTLAND

SNP: 389,503
Lab: 348,219
Con: 231,330
UKIP: 140,534
Green: 108,305
LD: 95,319

MEPs: Ian Hudghton (SNP)David Martin (Lab)Ian Duncan (Con)Alyn Smith (SNP)Catherine Stihler (Lab)David Coburn (UKIP).

LONDON

Labour: 806,959
Con: 495,639
UKIP: 371,133
Green: 196,419
Lib Dem: 148,013

MEPs: Claude Moraes (Lab), Sayed Kamall (Con), Mary Honeyball (Lab), Gerard Batten (UKIP), Lucy Anderson (Lab), Charles Tannock (Con), Seb Dance (Lab), Jean Lambert (Green).

SOUTH EAST

UKIP: 751,439
Con: 723,571
Lab: 342,775
Green: 211,706
LD: 187,876

MEPs: Nigel Farage (UKIP), Dan Hannan (Con), Janice Atkinson (UKIP), Nirj Deva (Con), Annalise Dodds (Lab), Diane James (UKIP), Richard Ashworth (Con), Keith Taylor (Green), Catherine Bearder (LD), Ray Finch (UKIP).

WEST MIDLANDS

UKIP: 428,010
Lab: 363,033
Con: 330,470
LD: 75,648
Green: 71,464

MEPs: Jill Seymour (UKIP), Nina Gill (Lab), Philip Bradbourne (Con), Jim Carver (UKIP), Sion Simon (Lab), Anthea McIntyre (Con), Bill Etheridge (UKIP).

NORTH WEST

LAB: 594,063
UKIP: 481,932
CON: 351,985
Green: 123,075
LD: 105,487

MEPs: Theresa Griffin (Lab), Paul Nuttall (UKIP), Jaqueline Foster (Con), Afzal Khan (Lab), Louise Bours (UKIP), Julie Ward (Lab), Sajjid Karim (Con), Steven Woolfe (UKIP).

WALES

Lab: 206,332
UKIP: 201,983
Con: 127,742
Plaid: 111,864
Green: 33,275
LD: 28,930

MEPs: D. Vaughan (Lab)N. Gill (UKIP), K. Swinburne (Con), J. Evans (Plaid).

SOUTH WEST

UKIP: 484,184
Con: 433,151
Lab: 206,124
Green: 166,447
LD: 160,376

MEPs: William Dartmouth (UKIP), Ashley Fox (Con), Julia Reid (UKIP), Julie Girling (CON), Claire Moody (Lab), Molly Scott Cato (Green).

YORKSHIRE AND HUMBER

UKIP: 403,630
LAB: 380,189 
CON: 248,945
GREEN: 102,282
LD: 81,108

MEPs: Jane Collins (UKIP), Linda McAvan (Lab), T. Kirkhope (Con), A. Bashir (UKIP), R. Corbett (LAB), M. Hookem (UKIP).

EAST MIDLANDS

UKIP: 368,734
Con: 291,270
Lab: 279,363
Green: 67,066
LD: 60,773

MEPs: Roger Helmer (UKIP), Emma McClarkin (Con), Glenis Willmott (Lab), Margot Parker (UKIP), Andrew Lewer (Con).

EAST

UKIP: 542,812
Con: 446,569
Lab: 271,601
Green: 133,331
LD: 108,010

MEPs: Patrick O’Flynn (UKIP)Vicky Ford (Con), Richard Howitt (Lab), John Agnew (UKIP), Geoffry van Orden (Con), Tim Aker (UKIP), David Campbell-Bannerman (Con)

NORTH EAST

LAB – 221,988
UKIP – 177,660
CON – 107,773
LD – 36,093

MEPs: Jude Kirton-Darling (Lab), Paul Brannen (Lab), Jonathan Arnott (UKIP)

Martin Callanan, the leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, has lost his seat.

UKIP Top Poll in Newark

European Election Exit Polls

poll

The exit polls in from Europe so far show a strong anti-EU vote across the continent. The right-wing anti-EU People’s Party is top in Denmark, Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star party is second in Italy (according to test data), far left Syriza are top in Greece and Front National appear to have won in France. Britain’s results are expected after 10pm…

UPDATE: A table of exit polls as they come in is available here via @AlbertoNardelli.

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.

Friday, May 23, 2014

Leading Rebel Tory MPs Kick Back at UKIP Pact

Though Carswell, Bone, Jenkin and Rees Mogg broke cover last night to call for a UKIP pact, Tory high command seem pretty relaxed about it all. Grant Shapps even just took the mick out of Rees Mogg on live TV, and the fact it is four particularly suspect members of the usual suspects seems to have dampened the noise.

Interestingly, there has been an outbreak of loyalty amongst rebellious MPs, who have had their clashes with the leadership before. Previous troublemakers are pouring cold water on the pact idea. Philip Davies, a rebel with numerous causes, tells Guido:

“A national pact with UKIP is not going to happen so it is a pointless argument – that is probably one thing that Cameron and Farage do agree about! However, obviously I hope UKIP will stand aside for Better Off Out MPs (which may actually include some Lab ones like Kate Hoey) as they have in previous elections but that is a decision for them rather than us. Clearly though we need to focus on how we can win back Tories who have left us for UKIP.”

Senior insurgent Mark Pritchard adds:

“There is no need for a pact with UKIP. UKIP may have achieved a political tremor – but they are well short of the political earthquake they were predicting. There are still some good results for the Conservatives. A pact with UKIP would tie the Conservative Party’s hands when negotiating powers back from Europe – negotiations which need to be a realistic and achievable – rather than unrealistic” 

Even Michael Fabricant, who once called for a pact with UKIP, is now against it:

No.10 will feel rather chuffed if they can get the awkward squad to hold this line all the way until Monday. Whether they will feel that way in May 2015 is a different matter.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Final Polls Put UKIP in First

Sun/YouGov:

UKIP: 27%

Lab: 26%

Con: 22%

Green: 10%

LD: 9%

Mail/Opinium:

UKIP: 32%

Lab: 25%

Con: 21%

Green: 6%

LD: 6%

They’re predicting an earthquake…

Monday, May 19, 2014

WATCH: Establishment Lackey Disowns Nigel Farage

To summarise some of the politer Twitter responses, Neo-Guido, a salad-dodging establishment stooge, has sold out to the “LibLabCon”. Speaking on Channel 4 News last night he warned that Eurosceptics have growing concerns about UKIP’s impact on the Europe debate, saying that Farage’s comments on Romanians had “gone too far” and the relentless focus on immigration is damaging to the wider anti-EU cause.

Next this “EUSSR crony” will be “defending ZaNuLiebor”…

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Round-Up of Differing ComRes & ICM Poll Results


Seen Elsewhere

Tristram Should Stop Bashing Independent Schools | Toby Young
Journalists in the Dock | David Banks
Let Them Eat Gay Cake | Laura Perrins
May v Javid | ConHome
Politicians Never Safe From Being Recorded | Stephen Pollard
Superstar Carney | Alex Brummer
Gulf Dividing Labour | Mary Riddell
Labour Reverts to 1980s Anti-Capitalism | Allister Heath
Nothing Dave Can Say Will Stop UKIP | Danny Finkelstein
Hunt Told Off By Former Head | TES
Scrap Tax on Family Flights | ConHome


Find out more about PLMR AD-MS


Tony Blair threatens Ed:

“If you had a strong political lead that was combining the politics of aspiration with the politics of compassion, I still think that’s where you could get a substantial majority…  If I ever do an interview on [the state of the Labour Party], it will have to be at length…”



Left on Left says:

The lefties are attacking because the panellist is a millionaire and lives in a London home worth upwards of two million. Someone had best tell them he’s called Ed Miliband.


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