True EU Immigration Figure 250,000-a-Year Higher

As Guido predicted yesterday Downing Street has tried to bury the ONS report on migration statistics this morning. You can see why…

In 2014 ONS immigration figures said there were 223,000 “long-term” EU migrants to Britain. Yet that year 421,000 National Insurance numbers were given to EU nationals. Why the discrepancy? Today’s report admits that if the official statistics had included EU migrants working in Britain for under 12 months then the real immigration figure for 2014 would have been 474,000. The ONS figures widely reported at the time missed a quarter of a million people. Remain are spinning that short-term migrants somehow don’t count – yet they still use the NHS, they are still a burden on public services, still claim benefits. The churn of short term migrants also means that the demand is a constant.

ons-nino

Meanwhile the number of EU nationals claiming benefits in Britain has risen by almost 42% in four years, from 92,000 to 130,000. The number of Eastern Europeans claiming out-of-work benefits has risen almost 177% from 22,000 to 61,540.

So the number of EU migrants is a quarter of million higher than the official statistics had suggested, and many tens of thousands more are claiming benefits. This is huge ammunition for the Leave campaign…

Corbyn’s Brother Hopes He Votes Leave

One man stole the show at the after-party for the premiere of Brexit: The Movie, Jeremy Corbyn’s brother Piers. Guido shared a beer and a laugh with the Labour leader’s climate change sceptic, Brexit-backing sibling, who explained that Jezza is a “long-term Eurosceptic” who “has been voting with Graham Stringer [the Labour Outer] for years”, but is now in “party management mode“. Piers insisted “I don’t know how he’s going to vote”. But he expressed a hope that his brother “does the right thing and votes out”…

The sponsors for Martin Durkin’s must-watch documentary put £30,000 behind the bar at the W London in Leicester Square, which went by midnight. Piers then went all meteorological on us, warning guests that major thunderstorms are coming our way around mid-August, approximately the 13th or 14th, including the possibility of hailstones. He advises holidaymakers best avoid Britain, France and most of western and northern Europe for the period. It’s his brother who will be experiencing real turbulence…

TV Referendum Debate Dates For Your Diary

tv-debates

On 2 June Cameron and Gove will take part in an hour-long programme on Sky News, a face-to-face live interview with Faisal Islam followed by a question-and-answer session with Kay Burley and a live studio audience.

On 7 June, Farage and then Cameron will answer questions from a studio audience on ITV, moderated by Julie Etchingham. On 9 June, ITV will host a full debate, guests TBC.

The BBC will then host a special edition of Question Time on 15 June and the box office Wembley Arena debate on 21 June.

Jeremy Paxman is doing a channel 4 EU referendum debate with an invited audience on June 22.

Vote Leave are particularly put out by ITV putting up Farage instead of Boris or Gove. Remember, Peston is best friends with Roland Rudd, impresario of the Remain campaign…

Campaign Report: Day 27

banks eu

Leave message: Boris’ Brexit bus tour begins, and the nasty banks back Remain.

boris blunder bus

Remain message: Boris’ bus is foreign and would be more expensive if we leave.

Cut through: Gordon’s intervention.

Leave social media count: 353,842 likes, 40,301 followers.

Remain social media count: 392,261 likes, 27,263 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3 Leave 9/4

Latest poll: Remain 44%, Leave 46% (ICM, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 50%, Leave 50%.

Taxpayer-Funded Lloyds Loan to Remain

The new Electoral Commission release shows that Lloyds Bank, which is still in part state-owned, has given a £20,000 loan to the Remain campaign at a rate of 1%. Awkward…

Vote Leave are all over it, and David Owen notes BSE have also taken cash from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Citi as well. The Lloyds loan however is just a charge card with no interest incurred if they settle up on time. After all, Lloyds Bank chairman Lord Blackwell is a Brexiteer who says our relationship with the EU is “unsustainable“…

Remain Spending Twice as Much as Leave, Thanks to Taxpayer

times red box EDITED

The Electoral Commission have released the first batch of pre-poll referendum campaign donations today:

Remain

  • Conservatives IN Ltd – £362,534
  • European Movement of the UK Ltd – £57,494
  • Michelle Ovens Ltd – £95,000
  • Scientists for EU Limited – £60,000
  • The IN Campaign Ltd (‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ – designated lead campaigner) – £6,883,684

Total: £7,458,712

Leave

  • GO Movement Ltd – £12,000
  • Grassroots Out Ltd – £2,039,925
  • Leave.EU Group Ltd – £3,200,000
  • The Bruges Group – £10,000
  • Trade Unionists Against The European Union – £22,000
  • Vote Leave Limited (designated lead campaigner) – £2,786,500
  • WAGTV Limited – £110,000

Total: £8,180,425

Of course they neglected to mention the extra £9 million the government spent on remain’s leaflets, or the £135,000 a week worth of ads, or the loan of the British museum etc etc. Taxpayer funding means Remain is spending well over double what Leave is…

Bombshell Migration Statistics Imminent

The rumour doing the rounds in Whitehall is that the bombshell report on active National Insurance numbers will be slipped out early tomorrow. Chris Grayling has been asked to make time for four or five statements, so it looks like Downing Street is planning a dumping day to bury as much bad news as possible. Will the embarrassing NI stats revealing the true level of immigration be released tomorrow? With a ‘major intervention’ then lined up by No. 10 for Friday to try to keep the figures off the front pages…

The number of EU nationals given NI numbers has always been significantly higher than official migration stats. 257,000 EU nationals came to Britain in the year to September 2015, yet 630,000 got NI numbers, including 170,000 Romanians. The official figures are a con – the actual level of immigration is over double what the government claims. This is the opening for the Leave campaign to turn the debate onto immigration…

Campaign Report: Day 26

ids

Leave message: Global exporters and businesses within the domestic market want out.

Remain message: Brits are £1,800 better off in.

Cut through: IDS says Merkel pulled strings on EU negotiations.

Leave social media count: 350,548 likes, 39,950 followers.

Remain social media count: 391,517 likes, 27,037 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3 Leave 9/4

Latest poll: Remain 44%, Leave 46% (ICM, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 50%, Leave 50%.

Miliband’s Museum Speech Swerved Spending Rules

LBC made a good point this morning – does David Miliband’s speech at the British Museum yesterday mean Britain Stronger in Europe flouted campaign spending rules? This is what the Museum, a public body, says:

“The British Museum has followed

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Verboten: Dave Asks Merkel to Stay Out of Referendum

merkel

IDS is giving a speech at 10 a.m. in which he’ll elaborate on his claim – on the front page of today’s Sun – that Angela Merkel blocked the key immigration emergency brake in Cameron’s renegotiation:

“I saw the draft. 

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Campaign Report: Day 25

boris dave

Leave message: Don’t listen to remain snobs – there is a cosmopolitan case for Leave.

Remain message: World War Two Veterans support remain, World War Three might happen with Brexit.

Cut through: Boris vs Dave.

Leave social media count:[…]

+ READ MORE +

Scargill “Disgusted” With Corbyn

Arthur Scargill tells the BBC that Jezza has sold out on the EU and Trident:

“The message he should be putting forward is the one that we stood on the platform for and argued over what, 20 or 30 years,

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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