Campaign Report: Day 6

Leave message: Build hospitals with money meant for EU.

vote leave money

Remain message: Lingerie shops and gap-yah outfitters back remain.

entrepreneurs In

Cut through: Vote Leave’s Dominic Cummings at the Treasury Select Committee.

Leave social media count: 327,325 likes, 36,116 followers.

Remain social media count: 355,739 likes, 24,139 followers.

Odds: Leave 7/4, Remain 4/7

Latest poll: Remain 49% (-3) Leave 39% (-4) (Ipsos MORI, phone). Poll of Polls is now Remain 53 (+1) Leave 47 (-1).

Goldman Alumni Back Remain

Goldman

Remainers have been trumpeting the letter from eight former U.S. Treasury secretaries arguing that Brexit would leave the UK poorer, more inward looking and threaten the City. But Guido couldn’t help but find some of the signatories’ names familiar, so he decided to take a glance at a few of their CVs:

Henry Paulson: worked at Goldman for twenty years, eventually becoming CEO.
Lawrence Summers: Former Hedge fund partner, and worked as a freelance speaker. Gave six-figure speeches at Goldman and a range of other investment banks.
Robert Rubin:Spent 26 years at Goldman, eventually serving as a member of the board and co-chairman from 1990 to 1992.

Unsurprisingly the Remain camp decided to go with “former Treasury secretaries” rather than “former Goldman big-shots” for the headline…

IPSA: MPs Can Use Expenses to Campaign on Referendum

expenses

Cameron has imposed strict rules on the campaign activities of ministers and SpAds during the referendum, and CCHQ have banned Tory associations from using party resources to campaign for Leave. So Eurosceptic MPs are delighted with a ruling by IPSA last night allowing them to use their office and business costs to campaign on the referendum. The expenses watchdog says MPs’ staff, office resources, websites and casework capacity may be used for campaigning:

“Our approach to MPs’ claims for costs and expenses relating to the EU referendum will be, in essence, no different to claims relating to MPs expressing their views or attending events relating to, for example, the environment. It is a cross-party matter of great importance to the future of the United Kingdom, and, therefore MPs will be expected by their constituents to have a view on the matter and to be making arguments either for remaining or for leaving.”

The only exception will be leaflet production, which remains prohibited. In light of the strict rules imposed on them by their government and party, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are delighted with the ruling. They see it as “game on”. It does of course also mean yet more taxpayer money will be spent on the Remain campaign too…

Campaign Report: Day 5

Leave message: Gove makes case for Brexit, mocks Remainer’s scaremongering.

Michael Gove EU Speech

Remain message: All the smart people back Remain, including Bill Gates.

gates-euref

Cut through: Juncker’s pessimistic comments on EU meddling hit front pages.

Leave social media count: 327,040 likes, 36,012 followers.

Remain social media count: 357,748 likes, 24,037 followers.

Odds: Leave 13/8, Remain 4/7

Latest poll: Remain 52% (+1) Leave 43% (-1) (ORB, phone). Poll of Polls is now Remain 52 (+1) Leave 48 (-1).

Creagh: Vote Remain For Dolphins in the Thames

Creagh River

Mary Creagh has come up with a brilliant environmental justification for staying in the EU. Apparently we have Brussels to thank for “seals and even dolphins making regular appearances down river… where once it was dangerous to swim or swallow the water, it is now safe for humans and wildlife”. Righto…

Does Creagh’s argument that “the EU played a huge part in these environmental improvements” stack up? Well, the EU’s $100 billion-a-year Emissions Trade Scheme infamously bankrolled a scam allowing Chinese and Indian firms to generate a harmful greenhouse gas called HFC-23, then claim money from European taxpayers to destroy it. The Environmental Investigation Agency called it the “biggest environmental scandal in history”. Even if EU membership means we can drink from the Thames, not sure that makes up for the millions of taxpayer cash blown on a greenhouse gas scam…

Gove’s Truth Bullets For Project Fear

“The City of London would become a ghost down, our manufacturing industries would be sanctioned more punitively than even communist North Korea, decades would pass before a single British Land Rover or Mr Kipling cake could ever again be sold in France and in the meantime our farmers would have been driven from the land by poverty worse than the Potato Famine. 

To cap it all, an alliance of Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump, emboldened by our weakness, would, like some geopolitical equivalent of the Penguin, Catwoman and the Joker, be liberated to spread chaos worldwide and subvert our democracy. 

I sometimes think that the In campaign appears to be operating to a script written by George RR Martin and Stephen King. Brexit would mean a combination of A Feast for Crows and Misery.

It’s a deeply pessimistic view of the British people’s potential, and a profoundly negative vision of the future which just isn’t rooted in reality. The idea that if Britain voted to leave the European Union we would instantly become some sort of hermit kingdom – a North Atlantic North Korea, only without that country’s fund of international good will – it’s a fantasy, it’s a phantom, it’s a great grotesque patronising and preposterous Peter Mandelsonian conceit, that imagines that the people of this country are mere children, capable of being frightened into obedience by conjuring up new bogeymen every night.”

Michael Gove sums up Project Fear and the Remain campaign’s “bogeymen”…

Campaign Report: Day 4

Leave message: Osborne admits we cannot control immigration if we stay in the EU.

Remain message: Brexit will cost each household £4,300.

image

Cut through: Osborne’s Treasury report row.

Leave social media count: 325,493 likes, 35,520 followers.

Remain social media count: 352,289 likes, 23,629 followers.

Odds: Leave 7/4, Remain 4/7

Latest poll: Remain 45% (-3) Leave 38% (-3) (via ComRes, phone). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51, Leave 49

Corbyn Questions Osborne’s Figures

Pretend Remain campaigner Jeremy Corbyn sees through Osborne’s £4,300 spin:

“I’m not sure where he gets the figure from… I want to hear where he gets them from”

The top headline on BBC News this evening is “Treasury’s EU exit forecast sparks row”. This could have gone better for the Chancellor…

Dodgy Predictions: Osborne’s Equations from Long Discredited Model

Treasury Gravity Model

Lobby journalists and MPs have reacted with bewilderment at the Treasury’s use of a number of complex mathematical equations to underpin their argument for Brexit. This much vaunted analysis was based on a “gravity model”, a device used to […]

+ READ MORE +

Tory MPs’ Verdict on Osborne

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Treasury’s Case For Remain in 8 Equations

Osborne and Amber Rudd have directly challenged Boris to respond to the Treasury’s case for Remain. Here it is:

7

Pray for the Lobby journalists currently trying to decipher the document. The Treasury goes for the ‘Baffle ’em with BS’ approach…[…]

+ READ MORE +

EU Funded Tata Spin

save our steel

Despite the evidence that EU taxes and regulations contributed to the decline of the British steel industry, the Remain campaign are spinning hard that Brussels actually helped Tata Steel. A report by consultancy firm CE Delft was pushed by […]

+ READ MORE +



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