Corbyn Questions Osborne’s Figures

Pretend Remain campaigner Jeremy Corbyn sees through Osborne’s £4,300 spin:

“I’m not sure where he gets the figure from… I want to hear where he gets them from”

The top headline on BBC News this evening is “Treasury’s EU exit forecast sparks row”. This could have gone better for the Chancellor…

Dodgy Predictions: Osborne’s Equations from Long Discredited Model

Treasury Gravity Model

Lobby journalists and MPs have reacted with bewilderment at the Treasury’s use of a number of complex mathematical equations to underpin their argument for Brexit. This much vaunted analysis was based on a “gravity model”, a device used to model “trade flows between two countries as a function of economic variables such as GDP, geographic..and cultural variables”.

Well, the Treasury’s gravity model has been discounted numerous times for its use in predicting the impact that large scale economic changes will have on the economy. In 2005 Patrick Minford, Vidya Mahambare and Eric Nowell first looked at how useful gravity models were in predicting the effects of Brexit. Their conclusion was that they were far too simplistic:

“The gravity model may work numerically, and be more accurate in detail, for quite general changes in conditions, like a general drop in transport costs, mirroring globalisation, which is what Costinot and Rodiguez-Clare use it for. The problem with using it for a shock to trade structure like the UK leaving a customs union is that the responses will certainly not be the same as for a general globalisation shock; indeed such a shock changes the UK’s internal structure substantially, in a way not assumed in a gravity model.”

Essentially, the gravity model can’t take into account the numerous complexities that would arise in the event of Brexit. These sentiments are reiterated by Alan Deardorff, Professor of International Economics at the University of Michigan. Deardforff remarks in this paper on gravity models, that their sheer scope mean their “use for empirical tests of any of them is suspect”. So it looks like Osborne’s been too clever by half. His model has been long discredited. You can’t use a few trade equations to predict the future, they are only good for baffling hacks…

Tory MPs’ Verdict on Osborne

Boris: “The Treasury has not been totally successful in all its economic forecasts, let’s be honest.”

Peter Bone: “Treasury’s economic predictions are speculative at best, deceitful at worst”

The response of the Tory benches to the Chancellor’s speech this morning…

Treasury’s Case For Remain in 8 Equations

Osborne and Amber Rudd have directly challenged Boris to respond to the Treasury’s case for Remain. Here it is:

7

Pray for the Lobby journalists currently trying to decipher the document. The Treasury goes for the ‘Baffle ’em with BS’ approach…

EU Funded Tata Spin

save our steel

Despite the evidence that EU taxes and regulations contributed to the decline of the British steel industry, the Remain campaign are spinning hard that Brussels actually helped Tata Steel. A report by consultancy firm CE Delft was pushed by the Guardian this week, claiming Tata benefited overwhelmingly from European Emission Trading Schemes (ETS): “No other British company has benefited from the EU’s emissions trading scheme as much as Tata Steel”. 

Who funds CE Delft? The firm’s website lists clients including the European Commission and the European Parliament. Indeed 14% of their clients are EU institutions. He who pays the piper…

Arron Banks Won’t Seek Judicial Review

“I have spent a lot of time and so much money, alongside many others, over the past few months and years making sure this referendum happened, and more than anything we wanted to make sure it happened fairly. We have raised well over £9 million and reached millions of people around this country.
 
“What is clear now is that if we were to pursue a judicial review, according to legal experts, we would win. But this is a time to take a step back from the matter, and after consulting with leading campaigners on this issue, including UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage – we have decided to show the public how this process was stitched up, but not to pursue the judicial review any further.
 
“It is time to turn our collective guns on the real opponents in this campaign: those who are repeatedly trying to scare the British public into thinking that Britain is too small and insignificant to be an independent nation engaged with the whole world, not just one corner of it. We will be pursuing this campaign with vigour – and we’ll have some fun with it along the way”.

The right decision. Good news for the Leave campaign.

Farage Buries Hatchet With Vote Leave

Guido hears Chris Grayling will be the first Cabinet member to share a stage with Nigel Farage during the referendum campaign. They are due to appear under a Grassroots Out banner at a rally in Stoke on Monday. Very welcome to see the star supporter of Grassroots Out and a Vote Leave committee member put aside the past differences of their respective campaigns and unite to focus on the real enemy. Farage allies say the hatchet is buried: “onwards to victory”. Nigel himself says:

“All those who want the United Kingdom to leave the European Union will I’m sure welcome Chris Grayling’s approach of co-operating cross-party and cross-group.”

Penny for Suzanne Evans’ thoughts. Arron Banks meanwhile announces his decision on whether he will seek a judicial review on behalf of Leave.EU at midday…

Vote Leave Granted Official Designation

The Electoral Commission has chosen Vote Leave as the designated lead campaigners for the Leave side during the EU referendum:

“We received two high quality applications on the ‘Leave’ side, from ‘Vote Leave Ltd’ and ‘The Go Movement Ltd’. After careful consideration, the Commission decided that ‘Vote Leave Ltd’ better demonstrated that it has the structures in place to ensure the views of other campaigners are represented in the delivery of its campaign. It therefore represents, to a greater extent than ‘Go Movement Ltd’, those campaigning for the ‘Leave’ outcome, which is the test we must apply.”

Remember Arron Banks and UKIP will still be able to spend £4 million on their own side of the campaign…

UPDATE: Grassroots Out’s Peter Bone says “We congratulate Vote Leave… We look forward to working closely and productively”. The right response… 

UPDATE II: A spokesman for Leave.EU tells Guido they will seek a judicial review of the decision. Which potentially could delay the referendum until the autumn. Eurosceptics should all be focusing on the real enemy…

UPDATE III: Nigel Farage signals he is willing to work with Vote Leave:

“I have always wanted all on the Leave side to come together and have done my best to try and make this happen. I’ll continue to do so in the run up to the referendum to ensure the Leave side wins. We in UKIP, as I’ve said from the start, will work with anyone that wants to leave the EU. We must work together to get our country out of the European Union.”

UPDATE IV: Leave.EU CEO Liz Bilney says she wants Outers to work together but the boss Arron Banks confirms in a statement he will apply for a judicial review: “It is to be regretted that this process may put the referendum back until October”. Unlikely.

European Parliament Vice President: Dave’s EU Deal “Not Legally Binding”

Technocrat scum

Yesterday a senior Eurocrat argued it is “time for an EU ban on referenda”, today the same website has published an interview with the Vice President of the European Parliament in which he claims the PM’s renegotiation is not legally binding after all.[…] Read the rest

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Tory MEP’s W*nker Sign in European Parliament

Pro-Brexit Tory MEP leader Syed Kamall responds to Guy Verhofstadt’s calls for further integration. Superb.

H/T Peter Spiegel
[…] Read the rest

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IMF’s Lagarde Repays Osborne

Osborne-and-Lagarde-008.jpg

IMF chief Christine Lagarde – currently due to stand trial over a €400 million fraud case – has been spinning overtime that Brexit will damage the UK. This is merely a geo-political courtesy return favour to Osborne who campaigned hard for her to get the IMF chief’s job.[…] Read the rest

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Top Eurocrat: “Time For an EU Ban On Referenda”

Evil Man

Look no further than this top Eurocrat for proof of Brussels’ loathing for democracy. After Dutch voters had the gall to defy the EU last week, Fraser Cameron, a former senior adviser to the Commission, wrote this on why “it is time for an EU ban on referenda”. […] Read the rest

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Electoral Commission: £9 Million Taxpayer Cash Gives Remain “Unfair Advantage”

IMG_3466-0

Here is the Electoral Commission’s view on Dave’s £9 million of extra taxpayer cash for pro-EU leaflets:

“We don’t think the government should have done it… [it gives Remain an] unfair advantage… undermines the principle [of spending limits]”

A major intervention – this is very strong language from the usually diplomatic Electoral Commission.[…] Read the rest

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Eurocrats Dismiss Dutch Vote

61% of Dutch voters voted against the government and against the EU last night, in a referendum seen as a vote of confidence in Brussels. This is how Eurocrats have responded to the will of the people being democratic expressed:

[…] Read the rest

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Top Europhile Admits EU Hurting Steelworkers

Former LibDem minister and arch-Europhile Steve Webb has told the truth about the EU hampering any bailouts of steelworkers’ pensions:

“The issue there is you’re not allowed to subsidise your own industry where they’re competing with other peoples, and the EU come down particularly hard on steel, because the EU takes the view that there’s too much steel capacity.

[…] Read the rest

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BSE’s Laughable Leaflet Hypocrisy

BSE spent yesterday whinging that Vote Leave are distributing leaflets “completely absent of Vote Leave branding”. So outraged were the Remain campaign that they pinged off a press release and even had Chris Bryant complain to the Electoral Commission. Which isn’t the brightest move considering BSE have been sending out their own unbranded leaflets, with just the acronym “BSIE” in very small letters on the return address:

Will the Electoral Commission look at them too?[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

Tory MP Stewart Jackson on Bob Geldof:

“Now loudmouth multimillionaire soapdodger Bob Geldof is supporting the LibDem campaign in Richmond Park. Haven’t the voters suffered enough?”

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