Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.

Where We Are This Morning

As we go to pixel (7:28am), these are the local election results so far:

  • UKIP is doing huge damage in the Labour heartlands of the North, gaining 86 seats overall with 59 councils declared and on course to win over 100.
  • The BBC has UKIP on around 25% outside London but just 7% in London. UKIP telly star Suzanne Evans has lost her Merton seat.
  • UKIP has done particularly well in Essex, where the Tories have lost control of four councils.
  • The Tories have lost 101 seats overall.
  • Labour has gained 94 seats.
  • The LibDems have lost 84 seats.
  • Mike Hancock has come third in Fratton, losing the seat he has held for 40 years. The LibDems lost control of Portsmouth council.

The first tremors are being felt…

Electoral Commission Acting On Tweeted Irregularities

Quick action…

Electoral Commission Investigating “Folded” UKIP Ballot Papers

The Electoral Commission guidance to polling station staff is clear:

“Fold the ballot paper, then hand it to the voter unfolded. Ask them to re-fold it once they’ve marked their ballot paper in the polling booth.”

Dozens of voters including UKIP candidate Suzanne Evans are reporting that their ballot papers were handed to them with the UKIP section folded, contrary to the rules. The Electoral Commission has confirmed it is “monitoring the issue” and say that “staff have again been instructed to hand papers to voters unfolded”. This does seem widespread, though if you can’t work out how to find the box that says UKIP on your ballot paper you probably should not bother.

UPDATE: 

Who is Modi?

modi-track-record

The line from the Guardian/BBC axis is that Narendra Modi is a dangerous blood-thirsty right-wing nationalist, a sectarian Hindu who oversaw the massacre of Muslims in his home state of Gujurat. For added measure he was associated with the RSS, a uniformed Hindu-fascist organisation. Despite all this disapproval from the left-wing media establishment he has just won more votes in a free election than anyone on the planet…

The reality is he has risen from being a lower caste, poor chai-wallah, a boy selling tea at a train station, to successfully running Gujarat – a state with a population of 60 million – which has outperformed the rest of chronically corrupt India on all economic indicators. The Indian supreme court found there was no evidence that Modi allowed or even encouraged the mob violence in 2002 in Gujarat that led to some thousand deaths. The RSS is closer to Baden Powell’s boy scouts than Hitler’s brownshirts. Modi is a vegetarian, technocrat who believes that India’s Hindus and India’s Hindu culture should command more respect. In that it is fair to say he is a conservative nationalist.

The born-to-rule Congress Party has been swept from power, the once great idealistic party of Gandhi that brought Fabian socialism to India had degenerated into an arrogant, corrupt, nepotistic kleptocracy. Modi offers his fellow members of India’s lower castes the prospect of social mobility, competent government and a high growth economy based on free market reforms, accelerated privatisations and technological progress. Modi’s campaign emphasises optimistically that India can become the largest market in the world and in a way reminiscent of Ronald Reagan, Modi promises to make India proud of its future. His campaign anthem commercial rocks too:

India has won! भारत की विजय। अच्छे दिन आने वाले हैं।

Worst Politician Selfie Idea Yet

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

Ed Miliband, Matt Hancock and Michael Gove step aside, Belgian MEP Guy Verhofstadt has done his best to single-handedly ruin the selfie. He has set up aself-EU contest where entrants are encouraged to “send us your selfie, showing us where and how you enjoy the benefits of European integration”. The prize? “You could win a day with Guy Verhofstadt.”

Surely no one will be able to beat Guido’s entry:

Let us know when to pop round, Guy!

ComRes Indy/Mirror Euro Poll Puts UKIP 9% Ahead of Tories

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in the European Parliament elections in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

UKIP  30% (+3)
Lab  28% (+5)
Con  21% (0)
LD  8% (-10)
Green  6% (+2)
Other  7% (0)

This is the first poll to ask separate questions about the European elections for some time. The figures for European voting are based on the 38% who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in those elections – roughly comparable to the 34% turnout in the last elections in 2009.

This UKIP Candidate Definitely Not Racist or Homophobic

18-y-o-ukipper

Our colleagues over at The Sun put 18-year-old politics student Bradley Monk, standing for UKIP to get on the Hampshire County Council seat Winchester Eastgate tomorrow, on page 2 after he put pictures of himself wearing a creepy Jimmy Savile mask on his Facebook page. Further examination of his Facebook reveals him dressed in a bikini having a drunken snog with Eric Cunha, another UKIP activist. Guido thinks we can safely say this is one UKIP candidate who is neither racist or homophobic…

Local Election Big-Mo Based on Crowd Sizes

Ed Miliband has been out and about today campaigning for the local elections:

Ed1

Not content with the small crowd he pulled for his stump speech, he decided to take his message door to door. Car door to door that is. […]

+ READ MORE +

Fabricant Files: A New Pact for 2015

Back in August Guido pointed out that

“the Cameroons like to remind the disgruntled Tory right of a simple bit of coalition electoral arithmetic: Tories on 34% + LibDems on 8% = 42%, just about enough to form a government

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Your Definitive Election Night Guide

Staying up for the long night ahead? Then’ll you need to know what to look out for and when the key results will come in.

Here is your definitive print out and check off guide to Election Night 2012[…]

+ READ MORE +

ERS Shun Hand Count PCC Elections

Back during the great AV debate of 2011 Guido brought you the news that the Electoral Reform Society owns Electoral Reform Services, the market leader in manufacturing vote counting software. Guido wondered at the time whether the £250 million worth […]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Mary Creagh’s coded attack on Ed Miliband…

‘I want the country to be united behind a single vision, we aren’t going to do it by sort of having a Rubik’s Cube approach to politics’. 

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