Early Election Prospects

seats-october-1

Theresa May’s poll ratings are stratospheric compared to Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers. YouGov’s latest opinion poll has Corbyn on a net approval rating of -40. May is on +31. That means Corbyn is -71 behind the Prime Minister. Guido can’t recall a bigger margin this century.

Downing Street briefs openly and privately that there will be no early election – despite an 18% lead with Ipsos Mori – yet the nagging doubt remains. What could be the catalyst for a change of attitude is losing the Brexit court case being pursued by die-hard Remainers. This constitutional conundrum could be solved by winning a mandate, possibly even a mandate to negotiate without publicly revealing the details of the government’s negotiating strategy. This may prove very tempting to Theresa May with the small majority she owes to Cameron.

According to the latest projection, based on the old boundaries, May would gain a 40-seat majority and unstoppable momentum for Brexit. It seems likely that if the Remainiacs win their court battle, they will lose the war…

Turncoat Tolhurst Backs Remain

kelly

Tory MP Kelly Tolhurst, who claimed to be a Eurosceptic worried about EU immigration in order to defeat UKIP’s Mark Reckless, has endorsed Remain:

“Having listened to the debate, looked at the facts, and spoken to prominent campaigners on both sides, I have now made my own decision that I will be voting to remain on the 23rd June. I believe that the risks to my country will be greater if we leave than if we remain part of the EU at this point in time.”

Careerist Kelly previously claimed to have personally complained to the PM about the impact of EU immigration on her constituency. This is a u-turn of Makian proportions. Expect UKIP to take full advantage…

Cat Smith’s Campaign Organiser’s Cover-Up Busted

BEN+SINGLETON
Guido’s revelations
last week about Corbynista Labour MP Cat Smith’s mysterious election expenses exposed one of the most serious individual cases of alleged expenses fraud so far. Unlike the systematic and centrally focused allegations surrounding the SNP’s chopper, or Labour and the Tories‘ national battle bus spends, Cat Smith’s returns represent an individual candidate conspiring to conceal a series of overspends in a closely fought marginal constituency. If found guilty Smith personally, not a party machine, will bear the responsibility

One of the key false declarations made by Smith is that her campaign organiser, Ben Singleton, spent just 12.5% (around four and a half days) of the short campaign working for her, allowing her to deduct 87.5% of his salary costs off her final election expenses declaration. Guido has already uncovered substantial evidence demonstrating that Singleton worked far more than this on her election campaign. Now, after an extensive search, Smith’s 12.5% claim looks even less credible…

Singleton realised Guido was investigating him and guiltily deleted his Twitter feed from public view – so we found alternative evidence sources. Pictures uncovered from a series of third-party social media posts show Singleton present on Smith’s campaign for at least 10 different days during the short campaign, which lasted just 39 days between March 30 and May 7. It is hard to find an event of hers in which he wasn’t involved. Several social media posts (including Singleton himself registering as attending two of Smith’s campaign events) show that the organiser was more involved than Smith has previously claimed. One of those events was a pro-Cat Smith rally featuring Eddie Izzard, also undeclared…

Making false declarations is a criminal offence, it could lead to her election being invalidated and Cat Smith going to prison. The evidence photos show Singleton alongside Labour grandees Tristram Hunt MP, Maria Eagle MP, and Theresa Griffin MEP. Will they be willing to testify on Comrade Smith’s behalf?

More to follow…

Cat Smith Expenses Cover Up

A very interesting development for the police investigating Labour MP Cat Smith’s election expenses. Cat claimed her election organiser spent just 12.5% of his time on her campaign – she would have bust her spending limit if his entire salary had been declared. So the cops will be intrigued to learn that, since Guido’s story, Smith’s organiser Ben Singleton has ‘protected’ his tweets. Something to hide, Ben?

singleton

Why might Singleton want his tweets kept secret? Well, Guido looked through his posts. During the election he tweeted exclusively about Smith, and not about any other candidates. This would suggest he spent a lot more than 12.5% of his time campaigning for her. As you can see below, Singleton appeared time and time again in tweets and photos relating to Smith’s local campaign:

ben singleton compilation

 

What’s more, Singleton’s public Facebook activity from the election is almost entirely devoted to Cat Smith, and not any other candidates:

ben

From the evidence available, it simply isn’t believable that Singleton spent just 12.5% of his time on Smith’s campaign. He was her devoted organiser. If Smith had declared his true salary accordingly, she would have bust her limit. Singleton suddenly hiding his tweets from public view shows they are on the run…

Tooting By-Election Campaign Kicks Off in Battersea

rosena allin-khan

Some very professional flyers advertising Labour’s Tooting by-election candidate Rosena Allin-Khan were delivered to people’s homes this weekend. Shame they were delivered in Battersea…

Sturgeon Ducks Chopper Question

Nicola Sturgeon faced a grilling from Kay Burley this afternoon following Guido’s revelations about the SNP’s helicopter spending during the general election. Sturgeon didn’t answer the key point that the chopper was used to campaign for local candidates…

SNP MP Swerves Questions About Own Party’s Spending

Pete Wishart is the SNP MP who wrote to the Met demanding a full investigation into Tory election fraud. Yet Pete had no answer when the Daily Politics asked him about Guido’s story on the Nats’ own spending:

Jo Coburn: “It’s been alleged that Nicola Sturgeon’s helicopter tour at the last election included some local campaigning. Are you confident that the cost of that helicopter was all properly declared?”

Wishart: “Listen, we want national leaders to go to constituencies…” 

JoCo: “Yeah but that wasn’t my question. Are you confident it was properly declared?”

Wishart: “There’s always what about if-ery and all this sort of stuff…”

The Nats insist the helicopter was rightly declared as national spend, but the Electoral Commission say that if it was used for any local campaigning – as it was – the cost should be divvied up. The MP who called the cops on the Tories has no answer…

Bum-ga, Bum-ga! Italian Politician’s Peachy Message to Voters

mario poster

Sex scandals and corruption rarely hold Italian politicians back. In the North Italian city of Bologna, known as “il rosso” (the red) due to it’s large lefty student population (it has a street named after Stalingrad), one candidate is using an age old tactic to stand out. An independent who supports the Lega Nord, Mario Turrini’s poster claims the photo “serves to get your attention” to vote for the candidate on June 5. After the image sparked outrage among locals, Turrini captioned the posters with an apology -and promised that if he wins he’ll “publish the other side”….

Results So Far: Everything You Need to Know

Here’s where we are as of 7:30am:

  • Labour meltdown in Scotland, where Ruth Davidson’s Tories are stunningly set to take second place
  • SNP set not to win Holyrood majority
  • Labour loses council seats in England though make-up of councils remains largely unchanged
  • Labour’s vote up on average by just four points since 2015
  • Strong UKIP performance in Wales, party set for 8 assembly seats
  • Andy Burnham considering running for Manchester mayor
  • Labour moderates’ verdict:

Jo Cox MP:

“This is not a route back to power in 2020 for the Labour Party.

[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

176 Days Later… Has Paul O’Grady Left Yet?

paul o grady

It’s 176 days since Miliband lost, yet Birkenhead’s favourite son Paul O’Grady still hasn’t made good on his promise to leave the country. Speaking at Ed’s final election rally, O’Grady vowed he would move to the exclusive Lido island in Venice if the Tories returned to power:

“I can’t live under this bloody government any more.

[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

John Stewart on #GE2015

+ READ MORE +

Exit Poll: CON 316 LAB 239 LD 10 SNP 58 UKIP 2

BUT this is what YouGov say:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/596056851625746433/photo/1[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

ComRes Election Poem

ComRes have for some reason commissioned a special election poem:

I PREFER DEMOCRACY
 
You can run a land with armies
You can rule a sea with boats
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with votes.
 
You can run a land with bullets
You can crush dissent with sticks 
But I prefer democracy
Where you run a land with ticks.

[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Tories Lead By 5 With Ipsos Mori

But the Tory lead is just one point with YouGov:

The final polls come in in seven days…[…] Read the rest

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The Day the Polls Didn’t Turn

This is a poll of polls average for today only:

Worth noting that the Labour figure is inflated by their very high rating with Panelbase.

As you can see below, TNS, Panelbase and Survation all put Labour ahead, but the latest polls out tonight from ComRes and YouGov have the Tories in first:

Which makes this Guardian splash, released before the ComRes and YouGov polls, look rather premature:

day-pols-didnt-turn

Too late to change the splash?[…] Read the rest

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#GUIDO4BUCKS: Blogger to Challenge Speaker at Election

After ten years of sniping from the sidelines, Guido has decided to up his game. This website has never been John Bercow’s biggest fan, but now it is time to throw down the gauntlet…

When he was a lowly backbencher, Bercow maxed out his expenses.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Tory MP Stewart Jackson on Bob Geldof:

“Now loudmouth multimillionaire soapdodger Bob Geldof is supporting the LibDem campaign in Richmond Park. Haven’t the voters suffered enough?”

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