Theresa May has broken her deadline of publishing the government’s Brexit white paper this month after signalling it won’t now appear until after the EU summit this month. David Davis is kicking off and threatening a Cabinet protest. Guido understands the white paper is finished, ready and waiting to go but is being blocked by a combination of Number 10, the Treasury and HMRC. Downing Street is refusing to even share it with Cabinet ministers, despite requests to see it. This has caused almost as much annoyance as – yet another – delay to the Brexit plan. It is a joke that the UK is going into the next summit with the EU having delayed May’s promise to give “precise” details about what she wants from Brexit by now. It is ridiculous that Cabinet ministers are not being involved in the process. This delay is yet more evidence Number 10 is fudging Brexit and putting us on a path to staying very close to the EU…

Number 10 twist the knife into Bercow:

“PM has seen the alleged remarks and clearly thinks they are unacceptable. If a complaint is made then it should be fully investigated.”

Could the Speaker’s time finally be up?

If any further proof were needed that the civil service is working against Brexit, this morning’s revelation in The Sun that Olly Robbins held back evidence in favour of the Max Fac model just about sums it up. May’s Europhile Brexit adviser stands accused of deliberately not including evidence that a technological solution can be found to solve the Irish border question in his presentation to the Brexit sub-committee. Meanwhile, George Trefgarne reports that Number 10 and the Treasury nixed plans to trial Max Fac next year:

2. My understanding is HMRC were ready to trial the Max Fac systems in August, but this has been pulled by No10 and the Treasury

— George Trefgarne (@GeorgeTrefgarne) May 10, 2018

If the civil service stopped trying to fight Brexit and just got on with it, things would be going a lot better for Number 10.

684 days have passed since Britain voted for Brexit. Theresa May has been Prime Minister for 664 days. There are just 325 days – ten months – until we are supposed to be leaving the EU. Still, the UK government does not have a policy on customs. 

Boris has given an interview to the Mail today in which he brands Number 10’s customs partnership proposal “crazy”. Guido has outlined the problems with it here. The customs partnership is dead in its current form, but the papers are full of speculation Downing Street is going to plough ahead with a rehashed version of the model rejected by the Brexit sub-committee last week.

Just as worryingly, Number 10 is putting off the decision yet again. Customs won’t be discussed at Cabinet today, we are told, nor at the next meeting of the sub-committee on Thursday. There are reports that the Commons vote on customs may even be delayed until the autumn, as May desperately tries to fudge what is already a fudge. Continually delaying the decision on customs is becoming a dereliction of duty. The uncertainty is harming the economy. The vague UK position is encouraging Brussels to wind down the clock and keep us in a full customs union. If Number 10 delay any further, the choice will be between a customs union and no deal, outcomes no one wants. Get on with it…

Tory MPs want Theresa May to add Brexit-supporting trade experts to her Number 10 team after concerns were raised that the current crop of policy aides are out of their depth and not signed up to the PM’s plan for leaving the customs union. The revelation that May’s senior aides “will not be crying into our beer” should the UK be forced to remain in a customs union has enraged Brexiters. As Guido reported yesterday, knives are out for the Number 10 Europe Unit, Denzil Davidson and Ed de Minckwitz, who are accused of attempting to “roll the pitch” ahead of caving on the customs union.

Davidson helped negotiate David Cameron’s failed pre-referendum deal with the EU, which hardly inspires confidence. There is consternation that de Minckwitz, who was one of Stronger In’s top advisers during the referendum and played the role of Boris in BSE’s debate prep, inexplicably holds the trade brief. When you add the Remainer-filled Europe Unit to May’s Remainer chief of staff Gavin Barwell – who blames Brexit for him losing his seat – and her Remainer chief EU adviser Olly Robbins – who came up with the disastrous ‘customs partnership’ fudge – it is clear that none of the PM’s top Brexit aides are true believers.

Some Leavers are lobbying for the role of DIT’s Crawford Falconer, someone who actually has trade expertise, to be beefed up. Others want Number 10 to listen more to the likes of the IEA’s Shanker Singham and the group Economists For Free Trade. There have been serious concerns for a while now that the calibre of May’s Brexit advisers is so low that “Heywood and Robbins run rings around them”. One of the key problems with Number 10’s approach to Brexit is that none of her Brexit aides believe in the cause. Pro-Brexit advisers, Nick Timothy even, would never have allowed their position on the customs union to become so vague. As Theresa May herself said, “You can only deliver Brexit if you believe in Brexit…”

Brexiter Tory MPs are demanding that Theresa May makes next month’s customs union vote a confidence vote, and are making clear that letters will go in to Graham Brady if she attempts to further fudge the issue.

It is now the view of Leavers that the customs union has to be made an issue of confidence (though it can’t be a formal vote due to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act) and this has to happen next month. The government’s fudge so far has led the EU to reject the UK’s proposals and offer a binary choice between a customs union and no deal. May has to say once and for all that Brexit, and her premiership, means not staying in a customs union. This has to happen next month – if the crunch is delayed further the negotiation on customs will be doomed as Brussels and Remainers continue to work to undermine the UK position, and it will be too late to turn it around. Brexiter MPs know they cannot allow a situation where May is outplayed in the negotiation with Brussels, defeated by Remainers in the Commons and bounced into ‘reluctantly’ accepting membership of a customs union. 

Following yesterday’s Sunday Times story, Brexiter ministers let it be known that they could not stay in the government if May caved on the customs union. There was talk that David Davis would resign if Number 10 capitulates (though this would not be the first time he has threatened to quit). After Sajid Javid’s tweet yesterday it’s clear that it’s not just Brexiters for whom this is a red line. Certainly a raft of junior ministers would go. In the end Number 10’s Cabinet wargaming is a moot point. They know that if they surrender on the customs union, the letters would immediately go in and that would be that…