Thursday, April 17, 2014

GRAPH:  BBC Mind Share v Public Market Share

BBC-PAPER-CHARTFor years the BBC has explained its disproportionate consumption of the Guardian newspaper compared with public market share by arguing that it needs to buy more broadsheet papers than popular ones to best provide news for licence fee payers. It is not an issue of left-right bias, they claim, rather a distinction along broadsheet-popular press lines. Guido has analysed new figures released by the BBC to see whether this excuse stands up to scrutiny.

Methodology: By dividing a) each paper’s percentage share of the total papers purchased by the BBC , with b) each paper’s percentage share of the public market, we get c) the BBC mind share / public market share ratio. This tells us how greater or smaller BBC consumption is proportionally compared to public consumption.

Results: As the graph above shows, BBC consumption of the Independent is proportionally over 11 times that of the public market share. Next follows the Guardian at almost 5 times. BBC consumption of the Telegraph is proportionally just 1.7 times that of the public, and consumption of the Tory establishment’s Times newspaper is proportionally just 2.5 times as much as the public. The left-wing broadsheets have a far higher BBC consumption ratio than their right-wing rivals.

However, the popular press is where the BBC really gives the game away. Proportionally its consumption of the Mail is half that of the public and its consumption of the Sun is just a third that of the public. These are by some distance the two best-selling newspapers among the general population. Yet BBC consumption of the Mirror is proportionally double that of the Sun and 1.5 times that of the Mail.

Conclusion: This analysis shows that while the BBC is right that it makes a distinction between low circulation broadsheets and the popular press, there is a left-wing bias that extends to all papers. Among broadsheets, the BBC’s consumption of the Guardian and Independent is proportionally considerably higher that of the right-wing broadsheets (Times and Telegraph). Among the popular press, the BBC’s consumption of the Mirror is proportionally considerably higher than the Mail and the Sun. The numbers clearly show that the BBC’s newspaper purchasing patterns are not determined along a broadsheet-popular divide, they are determined on a left-right political bias.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Even Labour MPs See Falling Unemployment, Economy Growing

comres-expectations

As the economy grows, Labour’s poll lead disappears…

UPDATE:  Note the 4% of Tories who think unemployment and economic growth are going to get worse are more pessimistic than their LibDem colleagues.

 

Friday, March 28, 2014

Pundit’s “Budget for the Old” Wins Youth Vote
Weird Ed Has Lost Younger Voters Since Budget 

If you read the pundits, for example  and , the budget was aimed at older voters to counteract UKIP’s attraction to older more traditional small ‘c’ conservative voters. This is the pundit’s explanation for the poll lead collapse by Labour – now down to just 1%. Pundits claim Osborne has cunningly found granny’s political g-spot.

Has he really? Here is the move post budget in Tory support:

tory-budget-poll

Younger voters up 5%, middle years up 3%, grey-haired support unchanged for the Tories. Whereas for Ed Miliband:

lab-budget-poll

Labour has actually gained older voters perhaps nostalgic for the Kinnock type socialism now offered by Miliband. Weird Ed has lost 6% support from young voters, slightly less from middle age voters and gained 2% more support from aging lefties. Don’t think this is a random poll error – the YouGov results above are based on combining 8 polls to give some good sample sizes. Pundits will no doubt mull this over and recalibrate their musings. Guido has a working hypothesis, backed up by some data: Ed just isn’t cool. He’s an uncool weirdo that younger voters don’t want to be associated with, he has loser written all over him. 51 per cent of 18-24 year olds describe Ed Miliband as weird, the percentage of the Shadow Cabinet that agrees is even higher…

Monday, March 24, 2014

Frosty Reception for Data Hypocrite

Today’s award for brass-neck goes to Quango Street star Jane Frost. The former director of DirectGov and the Department of Constitutional Affairs has popped up in her latest incarnation – Chief Executive of the Market Research Society – to have go at the Tories over data protection. Frost told the Sindy that she will be reporting them to the Information Commissioner for not replying to her letters about data harvesting, though it looks a lot like she is playing outrider for a Labour coordinated attack. It’s all rather tedious, but you have to give it to Frost – she is completely lacking in any self-awareness. Regular readers will remember Frost was “Individual Customer Director” at HMRC when they lost the financial records of 25 million child benefit recipients in 2007. And now she lectures others about handling data…

‘Weird Ed’ Problem is Not Going Away

After four years as leader the British public still thinks Ed Miliband is a weirdo who was the unpopular bed-wetting swot that got bullied at school and picked last for sport teams.

All vote winning qualities…

Buzzfeed’s YouGov poll today shows Ed is seen as by far the weirdest party leader, with 51% of 18-24 year olds describing him as weird. That’s 50% weirder than Cameron. YouGov find that 29% think Ed Miliband is doing well as Labour leader, 60% badly, a negative net score of minus 31% compared to David Cameron’s minus 9%. As Guido wrote last week, these are not the numbers for a Prime Minister in Waiting, and the public literally laugh at Labour’s ideas.

The weirdo evidence is compelling…

Monday, February 24, 2014

Government of the Etonians, by the Etonians for the Etonians

tory-etonian-manifesto

The FT has a great spot this morning:

“There are six people writing the manifesto and five of them went to Eton; the other went to St Paul’s,” one Conservative MP in a marginal constituency told the Financial Times. A senior minister said the make-up of the prime minister’s team was a bad advertisement for social mobility.

The authors of the next Tory manifesto are, according to the FT; Cameron himself, Jo Johnson, Ed Llewellyn, Dave’s old school friend and chief of staff; Oliver Letwin, minister for government policy and Rupert Harrison. The male-only team are all former Etonians, except in a nod to social mobility George Osborne, who was educated at St Paul’s in London, has been allowed to join the Eton Fives team. Floreat Etona!

Thursday, May 30, 2013

We Grind the Numbers
#GuardianCoffee Needs to Sell 270 Coffees a Day to Break Even

Using figures from landlords We Are Pop Up, Guido has ground the numbers and calculated how many coffees the Guardian has to sell a day to break even:

  • Rent for one unit at BoxPark Shoreditch is £5,000 for every three months. Guardian Coffee has knocked three units together, making the cost for a year plus VAT £72,000.
  • There is a one off service charge for each box of £1,250, and electricity for each box is £150 a month. That makes £9,150 for the year.
  • Fitting the shop itself is valued at £25,000.
  • Business rates for Hackney Council are calculated as 47.1% of the annual rent, totalling £33,912.
  • A shop manager and four staff (based on witness reports of staff numbers) would together cost a minimum of around £100,000.
  • That is an estimated total cost per year of £240,062.
  • Each coffee is sold for £2.50.
  • At an estimated whosesale price of £10 per kilo from Nude Espresso, at 7 grams a cup that makes a fair trade gross profit of £2.43 per coffee.

Meaning they have to sell 98,791 coffees to break even. That’s 8,233 coffees a month, 1,900 a week, or 270 a day – basically one every 2 minutes...

At the time of going to pixel, before Guardian Coffee sadly removed their data infographic from the internet, on their big opening day they had sold just 60 coffees. Another Guardian financial success…


Seen Elsewhere

Jason Groves New Mail Deputy Pol Ed | MediaGuido
Cocaine Conservatives | Standard
Jezza Browne Responds to LibDem Haters | LibDem Voice
Why Britain Needs to Leave the EU | Douglas Carswell
Who Tells Ed When He’s Wrong? | Speccie
Hands Off Our Cojones, Mr Clegg | Laura Perrins
London Live Averaging Just 2,400 Viewers | Forbes
Ed’s Constitutional Failure | ConHome
UKIP Poster Girl’s Naked Photos | Sun
Miliband’s Radical Old Labour Agenda | Fraser Nelson
Meet Team Miliband | Dan Hodges


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Dan Hodges on Team Miliband:

“‘Poisonous’, was the picture painted by one former senior advisor. ‘Dysfunctional,’ said one shadow cabinet member. ‘A bunch of medieval courtiers, not an office,’ said another. The most positive description I could get was ‘It’s a work in progress. They’re learning. Slowly. But they are learning.’”



Nick Clegg says:

Do you want lies with that?


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