Momentum’s Dodgy Data Grab

momentum

The Corbyn cheer-leading organisation “Momentumclaims to be able to contact all the people who signed up to support Jeremy Corbyn during the leadership contest, but they might not have permission to do so. When people signed up as supporters of the Corbyn4Leader campaign, they were asked to give their email addresses and postcodes; the campaign said they were collecting this information to “enable us to carry out casework on behalf of constituents; issues and campaigns we are involved with locally; maintaining our own accounts and records; supporting and managing our employees and agents.

According to the Information Commissioner’s Office “individuals should generally be able to choose whether or not their personal data is disclosed to another organisation” and if an organisation does intend to disclose information to another organisation, “fairness requires that you tell the individuals concerned unless they are likely to expect such disclosures.”

If Momentum is a stand alone limited company and doesn’t share any formal links with other organisations as they claim, what right did the official Corbyn campaign have to pass over the sensitive personal data of its supporters to them?

Shocking Cabinet Gender Pay Gap Revealed

cabinet gender pay gap

Following the government announcement today that they will force companies to disclose their gender pay gap, it seems only right to look at how David Cameron performs on the same metric. After all he himself says the requirement will “cast sunlight on the discrepancies and create the pressure we need for change, driving women’s wages up”. Quite…

After carrying out an extensive gender pay audit, Guido can reveal that female members of the Cabinet are paid a shocking 8.4% less than their male counterparts. Men in the Cabinet are paid on average* £126,478 , while women on average* are paid just £116,693…

*Calculation based on the mean average wage by gender for all who attend cabinet.

What the Welfare Budget Looks Like Minus Pensions

Counting pensions as an old age ‘benefit’ has provided lefties with data-based ammunition against small state conservatives who want to slash the welfare bill. Looking at the graph below, targeting proportionally tiny housing benefits or tax credits looks futile – superficially at least – when 42% of the ‘welfare’ budget is spent on pensions:

You can see why lefties love using this statistic – it grossly skews the welfare bill to make it look like we hardly spend anything on the things their opponents want to cut.

So what does the welfare budget look like if we take pensions out of the equation?

This truer reflection of the welfare budget sees the other slices of the pie double in size.

30% of the non-pensions budget is spent on family benefits, income support and tax credits, some £45 billion.

Housing makes up closer to 20%, £26 billion.

A much clearer illustration of what we spend on welfare than lefties and the ONS would have us believe…

Twitter Brain: Mensch Analysed

TWITTER-BRAIN

Guido has heard it said many times that Louise Mensch needs analysis and today we have analysed her Twitter account. Currently she is tweeting pretty incessantly about Tim Hunt, the professor hounded out of public life for making a few humorous remarks about women in science. The twitterati’s feminazi wing took exception and the Nobel prize winning scientist was ruined. Louise has documented the case for the defence in detail on her own website

Anyone who follows Louise will know that she is tweeting about it a lot. By “a lot” Guido means continuously. Incessantly. Relentlessly. Non-stop. Around the clock. On average currently Louise is tweeting 280 times a day, about once every 5 minutes, 24 hours a day…

mensch247

In comparison Guido tweeted 33 times a day on average in June, well when we say “Guido” we mean one of the 4 Guido staff writers and of course about a third of those tweets are automated. Here is the analysis of @LouiseMensch for last month:

mensch-tweets

Let’s hope Professor Hunt is grateful for her campaign on his behalf. Louise – consider this an intervention – put the iPhone down…

Posh Pushier Politically

comres-turnout-by-class

Comres have a new voter turnout model for ‘Lazy Labour’. The key takeaway from this is that in mainly poor constituencies turnout is 20 percentage points lower than in mainly affluent constituencies. Not too posh to be politically pushy…

Newspaper Readers Party Preferences

newspaper-party-affiliation

This British Election Study survey shows Indy readers are a mixed bunch and as many back the coalition parties as Labour. So that endorsement will please and anger readers in equal measure. No surprises in the data. 

Data Shows Miliband Less Sexy Than Coalition Leaders

yougov-attractiveness

It is not so #SexyMiliband according to a YouGov survey bring further proof that we have passed peak #SexyMiliband. Nick Clegg is the housewife’s choice, Cameron is sloppy seconds. Ed comes a distant third just ahead of Nigel Farage.

MiliFandom is clearly a minority interest…

Reality Check: Nothing Changed

post-debate

As the spin-room packs up after the only TV debate the PM will take part in, what has really changed? The candidates were prepped for weeks, even Natalie Bennett remembered her talking points, each will have gotten something from the debate. Cameron got to look Prime Ministerial, Miliband looked a lot better than the he does when eating a bacon sandwich, Farage confirmed his Marmite status, fervently liked and disliked, Sturgeon really showed her mettle. Clegg was reasonable, Leanne Wood will have made them proud back in Wales. The spin-doctors will highlight where their candidate won on the issues, satisfied at least that their candidate didn’t screw up. 

On the numbers there was a great deal of variation between the pollsters on the key question of who won the debate? Leaving out the also rans of Clegg, Bennett and Wood the pollsters really differed – ICM said Miliband shaded it on 25% and Sturgeon came fourth after Cameron and Farage, YouGov had it in exactly the opposite order with Sturgeon first, followed by Farage, Cameron and then Miliband on only 15%. The double digit difference between first and fourth place and the exact reversing of the order does nothing for the collective credibility of pollsters.

In these circumstances is averaging the poll results really meaningful?  There was more clarity with the issue based polling which confirmed what we already know; Cameron is a clear winner on the economy, Miliband wins on the NHS and Farage wins on immigration. No news…

Did the TV debate enhance democracy? Last night two-thirds of TV viewers didn’t even care enough to watch the TV show that the political class has obsessed over for months. With only 7 million viewers it had a million fewer viewers than that other exemplar of participatory democracy, The Voice.

Post-Paxo Poll of Polls

As of this morning there have been 5 polls since Paxo interviewed the two leaders. Averaging them all out it appears there has been no ‘Miliband bounce’ post-Paxo as Labour have hoping, the two main parties are still neck and neck. […]

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Voters Don’t Trust ‘Em, Say Sod ‘Em

sod-the-lot-vote-ukip

If you want an illustration of just how low trust in politicians is nowadays, Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report has a classic example from last week:

I mentioned some YouGov polling about which taxes would rise under a Labour or

[…]

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Women’s Equality: From Maggie to Pink Buses in 40 Years

As Harriet Harman’s plans to spend her election riding around in a pink bus campaigning on female equality are revealed, ironically it is 40 years to the day that Margaret Thatcher became leader of the Tory party. Labour have still […]

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Relative Values: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

OSBORNE-NELSON

The spat between George Osborne and Fraser Nelson over whether or not the deficit has been halved is very much a Westminster bubble affair of little consequence to anyone outside SW1. Interested voters who even understand the difference between the […]

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