With the news that the CPS won’t prosecute Andy Coulson, on the grounds of lack of admissable evidence, it looks like Coulson will stay in Downing Street as long as he wants, despite whatever the Guardian, New York Times, BBC and Labour will throw at him.

Coulson is as guilty as sin of condoning the News of the World culture, nevertheless it was pretty clear that unless documentary evidence was produced there would be no charges against Coulson. What has been a politically motivated attack by enemies of the Murdoch press was bound to fail without a smoking gun, however much they huffed and puffed.

It has played out pretty much as Guido predicted last year (see Coulson’s Guilt). Punters now give Coulson a 96% chance of surviving…

It’s no surprise that Tom Watson has taken to opposition so well, surreally Guido even got to collect an award on behalf of the attack dog last week. However Watson’s out of the blue claim that Coulson is off imminently is nothing but traffic grabbing bluster. Of course Number 10 dismissed the claim as such almost instantly, but then it’s still another day that village gossip is once again full of chatter. Job offers have apparently come Coulson’s way…

Stories concerning the government and Dave in the last few weeks show Coulson hasn’t had his eye 100% on the ball, and that’s before the silent war in Downing Street is even considered. There may not be a smoking gun, but no doubt Hilton and his “zen men” are enjoying the constant drip drip drip. Expert punters don’t agree with Watson and it’s going to take more than a letter with an exaggerated claim to push Coulson over the edge…

Over the weekend the Prime Minister quietly cancelled his planned Christmas trip to Thailand. When the papers first got wind of the plan, Guido reported that Coulson had put the heavies on to try to stop the others asking the very obvious questions about the probity of such a trip given the, fellow Old Etonian, Thai PM’s less than exemplary human – rights record. You don’t see many fire extinguisher throwers surviving in Bangkok.

Other sources claim it was a lack of private beaches for security reasons, but with the number of vanity and money based stories floating around Dave in recent months Guido is surprised it took this long for Downing Street to have a re-think about where the PM should spend the upcoming “austerity Christmas”. Andy Coulson doesn’t seem to be burning on all four cylinders. Could there be some distraction taking up the time of the normally sharp headline seer?

He is wounded, but without a smoking gun Coulson isn’t going to be forced anywhere. However let us just say a few months into the new year a job offer he can’t refuse might arise and off he goes. Whenever Coulson leaves, and in whatever way; be it disgraced, or off back to News Corp., British Petroleum or a spin merchants at board level there will be one hell of a power vacuum in Number 10. There is no way that the control-freakish Steve Hilton isn’t going to want to fill the post with one of his own. One of the Zen Men so to speak…

Since months before the election the name of Ian Birrell has been floating around CCHQ and wider Tory-circles.  Since they sing from the same hymn sheet it seems likely that Hilton wants the Big Society enthusiast and former deputy-editor of the Indy inside Downing Street. Other than being a mate of Dave and Steve’s what is it about Birrell that is so desirable? Even ConservativeHome today calls for Birrell and three other people to be added to the No.10 machine, despite the Tories promising to cut the number of political advisers. Is something afoot? Birrell’s big-society, blue-sky, Cameroon credentials are not entirely to ConservativeHome’s taste…

UPDATE : Well connected source texts speculating that he could replace Ed Llewellyn, Dave’s chief-of-staff. Hmmm…

The Department for Culture, Media and Sport is looking for an exceptional individual to lead a strong and independent BBC. Or so the advert goes for the new Chairman of the BBC Trust.

The broad post is responsible for strategy and standards across the vast, over-burdening leviathan, and with a radical choice of candidate the BBC could finally begin to overhaul the bias and waste that so damages the organisation. So who could be brought in shake things up?

Rumour and whispers say that Paul Dacre isn’t long for the Daily Mail editor’s hot-seat. Rothermere was in the front row of Cameron’s conference speech and Guido hears that eyebrows have been raised at the increased attacks on the paper’s reputation. As one of the BBC’s fiercest critics, why not let Dacre put his money where his mouth is, and instead of merely shouting from the sidelines, see if he can do any better?

Kelvin MacKenzie has a wealth of broadcast experience, setting up L!veTV and the hugely successful TalkSport. He is a polished performer in public and could bring some much needed private sector efficiency to the Beeb. If anyone can put a bit of stick about it would be Kelvin.

It doesn’t look like Andy Coulson is being forced out anywhere fast, but after a third bottle at lunch the other day a former spinner in-the-know let slip that it is likely he will bow out next year in an “offer he can’t refuse” situation. Common sense would have him returning to News Corp at an extremely senior level, but perhaps after juggling the entire government comms strategy, one last public service could tempt him…

Guido is sure any of these candidates would be welcomed with open arms by the Beeboids, better than their nightmare scenario of TV reviewer Gary Bushell at the helm at any rate…

Well not quite, but Channel 4 News have certainly put The Guardian in a tricky spot. The paper’s strategy is to drip out one former Screws hack every day to keep the story alive, but it seems that they are grasping at straws already:

“Paul McMullan told the Guardian newspaper this morning that David Cameron’s communications chief “would certainly be well aware that the practice was pretty widespread,” but Channel 4 News has learnt from the former features executive that he left the paper in 2001, two years before Mr Coulson became its chief.”

Investigatory journalism at its finest…

UPDATE : Latest betting prices from Political Smarkets – Will Andy Coulson leave? Yes 43% / No 70%.

As the phone “hacking” saga gets its debate in the House, and now a Standards and Privileges Committee investigation, new levels of hysteria have been reached. Tom Watson is demanding that Rupert Murdoch to be called before Parliament to answer for himself. Don’t hold your breath mate…

Given journalists left, right and centre are openly admitting, sometimes live on TV, that the practice of listening to other people’s answer-phone messages was widespread, you must wonder how papers like the Observer and the Mirror are justifying their Coulson onslaught. Back in 2002 a crowded room of showbiz reporters cheered and laughed as a Sun hack blamed Vodafone, who were sponsoring the event, for their lax security that enabled the Mirror to get their exclusives. When the Guardian wrote it up back then, they knew exactly what was meant and didn’t bat an eyelid.

Labour’s case is undone by only targeting News International and making this a big bad Murdoch attack. If they were really as concerned as they are pretending to be then they wouldn’t be focussing their fire on just one publication…

What is it with Downing Street Heads of Communication? First we had Campbell’s cringe-worthy porno writing career and now Coulson’s getting his kit off. The high pressure atmosphere of a tabloid newsroom is often cited for various misdemeanours concerning the law. Now we know why Coulson was oblivious of what was going on – he was modelling for The Sun’s “Dear Deirdre” page:

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“Mick” was not available for comment…