The end result was Labour 14,718 (42%), LibDem 11,160 (31.9%), Con 4,481 (12.8%), UKIP 2,543 (5.6%), BNP 1560 (4.5%). The swing from LibDems to Labour was 4.9%, turnout was a reasonable 48%. The LibDem vote was steady, up fractionally on the general election, the Conservative vote halved, UKIP’s vote was up 40% on the general election and the BNP’s vote was down 22%.

Labour will say they did well, so they should in this seat, Clegg will point to the increased LibDem share of the vote and say they didn’t do bad. The Tories will feign disappointment. UKIP demonstrates once again that Tories have a place to go if they can’t stomach the coalition…

UPDATE: Labour are spinning that this is a clear vindication that the economic policies of the coalition are wrong. Not quite. If you add the Conservative and Liberal numbers together, more people are in favour of the coalition. A tired and tetchy Sayeeda Warsi is blaming the Tory-right for moaning. However, given the order came from above her head to move over for the LibDems, her digs at the Tory right, who she knows hate her, look as opportunistic as they do absurd.

As the Old and Sad voters head to the polls this morning, Labour seem certain that they are heading for win. Buoyed by the ICM and Populus poll boosts, Newsnight all but declared them victors last night, excitedly preparing their “dark day for the Coalition” lines. Smarkets punters say Labour are going to take it too…

Could the celebrations be a little premature though? The Survation poll showed there was still a huge amount of undecided voters. The fieldwork for all three polls showed there was already a shift from Conservatives to the LibDems, and given the coverage the “it’s a two horse race” line has got since Sunday, it’s possible that even more Tories might decide to do what Dave wants them to do and back the LibDem.  Whether or not this has enough of an impact to sway it, the result is certainly going to be closer than the 17% lead suggested by some pollsters…

Or did he? According to BBC North, Clegg accidentally kicked a small child in a push chair on a walkabout in Oldham yesterday. He then tried to blame a less than impressed Michael Crick who was doing his usual two-paces-behind-asking-awkward-questions trick.

However, as PoliticsHome picked up, the father of the alleged victim has rushed to tweet Nick’s innocence, denying it happened. Guido isn’t so sure though, especially when you look at the footage from fourteen minutes here. Of all things that could go wrong on the stump, injuring small children is very high up the list.

There’s definitely some sort of contact.

Sitting Labour MP Eric Illsley has pleaded guilty to three counts of fraud. He was already expelled by Labour and was technically an independent. The LibDems and Tories are tied in his Barnsley constituency for second place, by six votes:

1. Labour: 17487 (47.26%)
2. Liberal Democrat: 6394 (17.28%)
3. Conservative: 6388 (17.26%)

How many more by-elections will there be this year….

UPDATE: PA reports:

“His barrister William Coker QC said his client admitted wrongly claiming a revised sum of about £14,500. The claims were made for council tax, telephone usage, service charges and maintenance, and insurance and repairs at his second home in Renfrew Road, Kennington, south London. In a five-minute hearing, the disgraced MP sat in the dock rubbing his face and frowning. He spoke only to confirm his pleas, saying ‘guilty’ to the three charges.”

After months of denial, is conviction politician Illsley now eyeing up a similar reduction in sentence granted to David Chaytor on Friday?

UPDATE II: Sentencing in around a month.

Anyone who thinks the Tories are actually running a proper campaign in Oldham might want to take a look at the briefing note that was handed to volunteers when they arrived in the constituency just yesterday:

No wonder Dave could barely remember his name. If the Tories come second after such a half-hearted campaign, there are going to be serious questions asked of their leader’s judgement, specifically why he did not throw down the gauntlet and properly contest the seat. Dave has probably done enough to cover his back by visiting and there is a visible campaign going on, but it’s nothing like the by-election slogs, of varying success, when the Tories were in opposition. Instead they are left moaning to Guido about a distinct lack of “money, leaflets, polling and staff”.

After it emerged that the Cabinet discussed how they could maximise the chances of the LibDems winning in Oldham, Dave had to hit the stump, but it was hardly a ringing endorsement for the Tory candidate. Not only did the PM undertake an extremly low-key visit, he also managed to forget the candidate’s name. Political Scrapbook got the video:

The message to the large Tory vote in the seat is don’t bother or vote tactically. The ambivalence from high command has infuriated many in the party who see this as yet another example of Cameron steering ever closer to the LibDems. What were mutterings from a few of the old guard, has become a growing concern among many of the new members. Speaking to a couple of them last night, it seems Cameroon has become a dirty word…

Paddy Power says that there is more chance of Manchester United coming bottom of the Premiership than there is of the Liberal Democrats winning the Oldham by-election. However with more than a week to play for, Guido is cautious of such as sweeping statement. If it wasn’t going to be a lot tighter than Labour would like then why would they have to resort to desperate tactics. Bagehot noticed something fishy when the candidate and Andy Burnham were visiting a petrol station:

“They were duly to be seen talking to a nice middle aged lady through her car window, and nodding sympathetically. Oddly enough, the car, I could not help but notice, was a nice hybrid Prius, and on the back parcel shelf was a large Vote Debbie Abrahams poster. It was also being driven by a woman who earlier had been waiting for Mr Burnham to arrive.”

Seems the ghost of Bigotgate still looms.

Smarkets have opened up a market on who will come second. With Clegg visiting today and Dave tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how much sway the PM’s “we are fighting this seat, honest” act can muster. With reports of as many as thirty Tory MPs campaigning today, you might think a Tory second finish might just be worth a punt, but Guido reckons the blue tactical vote is going to pile in for the yellows.

Apparently there will be polling data by the weekend…

Aaron “Marius“ Porter hinted on the Politics Show that the NUS, a.k.a. him, may put up a candidate at the Oldham by-election, triggered ironically by the disgrace of a former NUS President. The NUS press office is in a mess this morning, but apparently Porter is denying he would stand independently, which makes sense given he would take votes from Labour and jeopardise his chance for a safe seat in 2015. The same reason rules out former President Wes Streeting who left his lucrative job at PWC to remain a Labour councillor. He’s not going to blow his chances.

Labour are desperate to find a candidate quickly and rumours are flying of who they have approached. The very close association of Phil’s loyal old bag carrier, Shona Woodfine has damaged her chances of getting the nomination and the race is very much open…

Given that tuition fees rises have been the most emotive part of the cutting agenda, so far, it would make sense for Labour to shore up their base and steal LibDem votes by running their by-election campaign around this issue, distracting from the shame of their former Member. Porter would have to quit as NUS President to run, and although Wes told Guido he wouldn’t run, in no uncertain terms, it’s not like an aspiring candidate has never denied an interest in the past. But on the ground things are hotting up…

Sources say the NUS/Labour hacks to keep an eye on are Josh MacAlister, a former Labour Students hack who now bills himself as “a teacher from Oldham” (he’s on TeachFirst which means he does this for a year or two and then goes away to work in the city). Only problem being he supported David Miliband.

The other is Kev Peel, a gay rights campaigner, championed by Gordon Brown and a ruthlessly ambitious careerist. Both boys set up the “Keep Oldham Labour” Facebook site. A friend close to Mr MacAlister says he isn’t surprised Josh is in the running and says he is “highly rated” in the local association. You heard it here first…

UPDATE: “Local teacher” MacAlister’s close friendship with his old student union ally Kenny Young might come in very handy. Depite an omnishambles of a career so far, Clamity Kenny has somehow managed to rise to the dizzy heights of Ed Miliband’s “Press Manager”.

Someone to lobby for him on the inside…

Yesterday afternoon Jonah Brown visited Leyland Trucks in Leyland in the North West to support the South Ribble Labour MP.   To those who follow Jonah’s travels is it no surprise that same night Labour were humiliated in the Leyland St Mary’s local by-election – a seat they once held.  The result was:

Con 709
Lab 239

A swing to the Tories from two years ago when they gained the council – recording 65% of the vote across the whole constituency. The one-eyed son of the manse is working his electoral curse at local and national level for Labour…

Lord Rennard resigned from his job as LibDem CEO last month, he claimed it was for “health reasons”, and that is a fiction that Clegg and the LibDem establishment are happy to maintain.  He was scheduled to leave Cowley Street in September, however Chris Fox has already been appointed as his successor and is now in place in Cowley Street.  Rennard is therefore somewhat superfluous in Westminster.

Nick Clegg confirmed last week that Chris Rennard would be running the North Norwich campaign, it is likely to be the last campaign Rennard runs.  It is a little awkward given that the reason for this by-election on July 23 is that Ian Gibson, the sitting Labour MP, stood down over his expense claims.  Rennard himself is mired in his own expense claim difficulties over his “second home” two miles from Cowley Street.  He has now been reported to the House of Lords Privileges committee and asked to explain how and why he has claimed over £40,000 in expenses for what is in reality his main residence which he owned before even becoming peer.

He has now taken the step of calling in lawyers, Goodman Derrick, to advise him…