UKIP Steal Council Seat In Miliband’s Doncaster on 20% Swing

Guido would call Doncaster Miliband’s ‘backyard’, but given the Labour leader barely spends any time there, he will stick with ‘Ed’s constituency’. Either way UKIP are in the ascendency in Ed’s constituency, as proved by Thursday’s stunning Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council by-election that saw a 20.5% swing away from Labour in Edenthorpe.

UKIP took 41% of the vote to Labour’s 38%.

Suddenly Farage’s plan to hold UKIP conference in the area does not look so brazen…

WATCH:  Farage Concedes – ‘Tories Will Win by 3,000 Votes’

“The Conservatives will hold this seat but what UKIP will do is score their best ever percentage score in a by-election. It’s going to be over 30%. [The Tory majority] will be two or three thousand. It will be very difficult to think we could have done much better. It’s been a very short by-election, we couldn’t really mobilise anybody until after the European elections. The Conservatives have probably put more into this than any by-election they’ve ever fought in their history. All round, I can assure you that the People’s Army will be very happy with this result tonight.”

If Farage is right and UKIP polled over 30% that will be very uncomfortable for the Tories…

Final Survation Newark Poll Predicts Comfortable Tory Win

The polls have closed in Newark and Survation have released the results of their final poll in the constituency:

The results are expected between 2am and 3am…

It’s a Jolly Holiday With Nigel
Farage Spends Home Stretch of Campaign 1,718 Miles From Newark

With the polls opening in a matter of hours for a crunch by-election, where is the leader of the party that is hoping to break through to Westminster for the first time? Nigel Farage is certainly not in Newark. Instead he was spotted at the Hilton Hotel in sunny Malta, 1,718 miles from rainy old Nottinghamshire. Instead of campaigning, Farage is hobnobbing with Helen Grant and Lord Adonis at the Institute of Travel & Tourism’s conference. A vote of confidence for Helmer!

UKIP Block in Disabled Parker After Suspecting Dirty Tricks

UKIP campaigners suspected foul play in Newark this morning when a driver parked a car two feet from their stall in the market place. In their paranoia, how did they respond to what must have been dirty tricks? They sandwiched “Vote UKIP” signs around the offending vehicle:

Which made for an awkward scene after accusing the Tories of parking there, only to find it was a disabled driver trying to get the shops:

Yikes.

Ashcroft Newark Poll Has Tories 15 Points Clear

Lord Ashcroft reports:

“A by-election two weeks after the European election means that Newark’s electors have enjoyed the prolonged attention of the parties, a privilege for which they must surely be grateful. The evidence from my poll is that the Tories have had the better of an intense ground war and have by no means taken the seat for granted. More than nine out of ten voters say they have heard from the Conservatives locally, including 81 per cent who have had literature through the door; nearly half have received personally addressed mail. Eight in ten say they have heard from UKIP; the party is reported to be slightly more active than Labour in all elements of the local campaign.

The poll was conducted in the week before polling day, and just under a fifth of voters say they may yet change their mind. Despite this, it looks clear that the next MP for Newark will be Robert Jenrick.”

The full data is here.

It’s theirs to lose…

Flapping Tories Threaten Candidates in Last Ditch Newark Bid

shapps

In further proof that the Tories are in a bit of a flap about Newark, the party chairman has just threatened the six hundred wannabe Tory MPs that they will be booted off the approved candidates list if they do not campaign ahead of Thursday’s poll. In an email seen by Guido, Shapps warns:

“As you know, a condition for being on the candidates list is the requirement to campaign in by-elections. Having spent 10 years on the list myself, I know that this expectation is no different from that which will be expected from you as an MP. Candidates who do not assist at by-elections without good reason may put themselves at risk of being removed from the list of approved candidates. … As a possible Parliamentary candidate, the Party is looking to you to show leadership and to support it in this critical by-election.”

They will not be able to throw this much effort at every seat UKIP are targeting this time next year…

Newark Responds to Mass Immigration of Politicians

Enough to feed a People’s Army…

Another Troublesome Peer Leaks Polling Data to Troll Leader

Lord Oakeshott jumped before he was pushed last week, after commissioning unsolicited bad news polling for the  LibDems, but has he set a precedent? Nick Clegg said he thought it ‘totally unacceptable’ that a ‘senior member of the party’ was […]

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Helmer’s Italian Parliamentary Aide Francesca in Newark

Yesterday Roger Helmer told the Speccie that his glamorous Italian assistant Francesca Salierno was not working on his by-election campaign in Newark, merely supporting him in his Brussels role as an MEP. That said, the lady in the photo below […]

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Helmer: Nigel Would Do a Better Job Than Me in Newark

The Speccie have been up to Newark to interview the Tory and UKIP candidates ahead of next week’s by-election. Roger Helmer has admitted that even he doesn’t think he’s the best man for the job:

“Nigel has that enormous box

[…]

+ READ MORE +

May Refuses to Be Drawn on Tory Newark Chances

Guido has paid a visit to Newark today to see how the Tory-UKIP bunfight is progressing. The Tory machine is out in force, blue rosetted door knockers are everywhere while the Ukippers dwindle around the town centre as only they […]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Janan Ganesh on Labour’s soft left

“Ms Cooper does not believe the previous Labour government was wrong to run a fiscal deficit after 15 years of economic growth. Both she and Mr Burnham think families should be entitled to tax credits for a third child. These views are not mad. They are just a bit too left-wing for Britain. For any serious party, that amounts to the same thing. The soft left is more electable than the hard left but then Mars is more habitable than Neptune: neither planet will host human life anytime soon.”

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