You read it here first;
- Douglas Carswell becomes UKIP’s first elected MP, winning in Clacton.
- Labour hold Heywood and Middleton.
Details to follow…
You read it here first;
Details to follow…
Last month Douglas Carswell revealed one issue he was at odds with with Nigel Farage:
“I have discovered one major policy difference with Nigel Farage. After a busy few hours meeting and greeting local people, he prefers to pop into a local café. I keep on trying to get him to go to McDonald’s for a McFlurry.”
Today in Clacton they settled their differences:
Whipping up a storm…
In 2010 UKIP decided not to run a candidate against Douglas Carswell, clearing the way for the Tories to beat Labour by 53% to 25% and hand Carswell a majority of 12,068. Some last minute jitters/expectation management in Clacton from a source close to Carswell suggest he is nowhere near the 32 point lead given to him by Lord Ashcroft’s most recent poll in the constituency. UK Polling Report‘s demographics show Clacton has a high proportion of over 65s, a high proportion not in work and very low numbers of ethnic minorities:
Meanwhile up in Heywood and Middleton:
Labour are on course for a comfortable hold despite a party aide today telling the Staggers Miliband’s attitude to the constituency has been “deeply frustrating” and that they are “completely out of touch” with the concerns of local voters. Even the uninspiring Liz McInnes should be able to defend the late Jim Dobbin’s 5,971 majority. Here are the demographics from UK Polling Report:
We should have the results in the early hours…
The polls are open down in Clacton and up in Heywood and Middleton, with the results expected in the early hours of tomorrow morning. When Guy News travelled to Clacton high street we couldn’t find a single punter planning on voting Tory:
Barring a major upset Douglas Carswell will be a UKIP MP this time tomorrow, and Labour will be welcoming their race card-playing Unite-backed candidate Liz McInnes to Westminster. Happy birthday to David Cameron, 48 today…
The Mayor of London has evidently never seen Bread. Any connoisseur of eighties sitcoms knows that the Tory candidate in Clacton is actor Giles Watling, but not Boris on LBC this morning:
BJ: “We’ve got a fantastic guy called… bloody… superb man… Stirling? Girling? Something like that. What’s he called? You tell me.”
BJ: “Giles… come on what is it again?”
NF: “Giles… the Bread actor? Remember Bread?”
BJ: “No. Come on stop sitting there like a great big fat Buddha and tell me the name of this guy.”
NF: “No need to get personal Mr Mayor… It’s Giles Watling.”
BJ: “Giles Watling, that’s right. I knew it. Something to do with ling. Tingaling.”
“I’m just an ordinary white working class person,” says Liz McInnes, Labour’s candidate in Heywood and Middleton, where UKIP have risen 28% in the polls since 2010. Does she mean non-white voters aren’t “ordinary”? Didn’t take long for Labour to stoop to dog whistle politics…
Many thought the PM would want to avoid the UKIP landslide. Apparently not…
In case you missed the Guy News special report during conference, it’s not looking good for the Tories on the Essex coast:
Guido is not sure a visit from Dave will do much to turn that around…
“This is a regrettable and frankly counterproductive decision. As Douglas Carswell said, the only way to get a referendum on the EU is to return a majority Conservative government. The Conservative party will contest the forthcoming by-election vigorously to make sure the people in Clacton have a strong conservative voice in this parliament and the next.”
‘The Conservative Party will contest the by-election vigorously, to ensure that the people of Clacton have a strong Conservative voice in this Parliament and the next.’
“Douglas Carswell’s defection is a hammer blow to David Cameron.
Guido would call Doncaster Miliband’s ‘backyard’, but given the Labour leader barely spends any time there, he will stick with ‘Ed’s constituency’. Either way UKIP are in the ascendency in Ed’s constituency, as proved by Thursday’s stunning Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council by-election that saw a 20.5% swing away from Labour in Edenthorpe.[…]
“The Conservatives will hold this seat but what UKIP will do is score their best ever percentage score in a by-election. It’s going to be over 30%. [The Tory majority] will be two or three thousand. It will be very difficult to think we could have done much better.
The polls have closed in Newark and Survation have released the results of their final poll in the constituency:
The results are expected between 2am and 3am…[…]
With the polls opening in a matter of hours for a crunch by-election, where is the leader of the party that is hoping to break through to Westminster for the first time? Nigel Farage is certainly not in Newark. Instead he was spotted at the Hilton Hotel in sunny Malta, 1,718 miles from rainy old Nottinghamshire.[…]
UKIP campaigners suspected foul play in Newark this morning when a driver parked a car two feet from their stall in the market place. In their paranoia, how did they respond to what must have been dirty tricks? They sandwiched “Vote UKIP” signs around the offending vehicle:
Which made for an awkward scene after accusing the Tories of parking there, only to find it was a disabled driver trying to get the shops:
Lord Ashcroft reports:
“A by-election two weeks after the European election means that Newark’s electors have enjoyed the prolonged attention of the parties, a privilege for which they must surely be grateful. The evidence from my poll is that the Tories have had the better of an intense ground war and have by no means taken the seat for granted.