The Times’ latest YouGov poll unsurprisingly shows Labour’s lead at 27 percentage points, while Rishi polls lowest since Truss’ resignation. It’s good news for Richard Tice though, as Reform UK are polling at their highest yet, taking a whopping 13%. That is only 7 percentage points away from the Conservatives. Nabbing more votes from those 2019 Tories…

Guido hears that Reform is getting their “best reception yet” at a by-election campaign in Wellingborough ahead of the 15^th February, with candidate Ben Habib getting an earful of public fury at the Tories on the doorstep. Their speaking events have 30-50 people in attendance each time…

Habib tells Guido: “It is no surprise that Reform UK is rapidly climbing in the polls. It’s as much to do with the message of Reform UK as it is with the Conservative’s utter collapse.” Another Reform source tells Guido that with a Farage entry the party would “instantly gain at least three points – and the Tories would lose three”. Guido wouldn’t disagree. Whether Farage will make a return to politics is another question…

Sunak is battening down the hatches down for a gruelling day as the by-election for Peter Bone’s Wellingborough seat and Chris Skidmore’s Kingswood seat are confirmed for 15^th February. Not the first time they’ve doubled up recently…

Majorities of 18,540 and 11,220 respectively are at threat and could disappear within hours of each other. A Valentine’s Day hangover on the way for Sunak?

The Standards Committee has recommended a 35-day suspension for Tory MP Scott Benton over a sleaze row, likely leading to yet another by-election for Sunak. Benton only has a 3,600 vote majority in Blackpool South, and according to UK Polling Report, Labour candidate Chris Webb is on track to win.

Not such a happy new year for Rishi…

The mood amongst Tory MPs is funereal, and now Peter Bone’s suspension will inevitably trigger yet another by-election, it’s probably only going to get worse. It doesn’t help when the PM himself is publicly resigned to failure already…

Guido can reveal Tamworth’s losing Tory candidate Andy Cooper was rushed through a truncated selection procedure which local Tories claim failed to pick up their concerns about his electability. Other contenders – who are bitter at the process – were put through deep checks the week before selection over the weekend of 9^th September. Cooper, by contrast, spent a hurried half-day in London before being placed on the 3-strong central office recommendation list. It is not clear whether psychometric testing, relatively new and much-touted for vetting, was used and the process failed to pick up Cooper’s choice words for benefit claimants in a Facebook post from 2020. Candidates are always complaining about selection processes but the recent run of defeats does seem problematic…

Senior Tamworth Tories say it is “just too early to say” whether they will stick with Cooper or if pre-Pincher candidate Eddie Hughes MP will try for the seat at the general election. He is reportedly eyeing up other seats like Solihull. Incoming boundary changes will boost numbers of Tory voters so it will be a desirable seat despite last night’s result…

The Tamworth by-election gave a whopping 23.9% swing to Labour last night. This seat was nearly as safe as they come for the Tories in 2019, with a 66.3% majority. They’d held it since 2010. In fact, here are twelve Cabinet Ministers who won a smaller majority in the 2019 election:

1. Rishi Sunak: 63% in Richmond (York).
2. Jeremy Hunt: 53.3% in South West Surrey.
3. Suella Braverman: 63% in Fareham.
4. Kemi Badenoch: 63% in Saffron Walden.
5. Grant Shapps: 52% in Welwyn Hatfield.
6. Oliver Dowden: 62% in Hertsmere.
7. Alex Chalk: 48% in Cheltenham.
8. Michael Gove: 58% in Surrey Heath.
9. Mark Harper: 59% in Forest of Dean.
10. Greg Hands: 49% in Chelsea and Fulham.
11. Gillian Keegan: 57% in Chichester.
12. Penny Mordaunt: 61% in Portsmouth North.

No seat is safe…
UPDATE: According to YouGov “Conservative voters think the government has the wrong leader by 46% to 36%, and the wrong policies by 53% to 29% (with 36% thinking both are wrong)

Compared to 2022, when Boris Johnson was still prime minister, Tory voters are 4 points less likely to say the government has the right leader, and 16 points less likely to say the government has the right policies.”