They really don’t want to finish third…

H/T @billykenber

Guido hopes former by-election supremo Lord Rennard will appreciate his Eastleigh souvenir stickers. Back in 1983 Liberal activists fighting against Peter Tatchell in Bermondsey infamously if unsubtly wore “I’ve been kissed by Peter” badges. It’s only fair randy Rennard gets a taste of his own medicine…

The graph above, via Survation, analyses all the Eastleigh polls since Huhne quit with a 5-point margin of error. Guido’s money is still on the yellows, though an upset isn’t impossible. With UKIP finishing strongly, Farage must be kicking himself he didn’t stand…

You can always rely on Polly Toynbee to spectacularly miss the point:

“Their distrust may be justified here, as this byelection follows a familiarly vicious pattern, the air thick with dirty tricks. Where did the Lord Rennard sleaze reprise from 2009 suddenly come from, and why now in the final runup to election day? Blasted across every front page, Nick Clegg’s fumbling response hasn’t helped, but it doesn’t take an expert political nose to suspect this stinks.”

She then goes on to play down the claims against Rennard as “less than criminal” – despite the police being called in – and compares the story to “Tory tricks directed at UKIP”. Perhaps she should read what Cathy Newman has to say on why she ran the story now. This is about the women who are victims of sexual harassment being able to hold a sex pest to account, and the lies being told by people who tried to stop their story coming out:

@christomill @cathynewman Though when people reduce the allegations to a 'plot', they demonstrate lack of concern for the underlying issue.—
Alison Smith (@AliFionaSmith) February 25, 2013

Polly’s diversion tactics are one in the eye for the sisterhood.

Find out who Guido is backing to win Eastleigh, and whether or not he thinks the Rennard scandal could turn the tables in the Tories’ favour. Exclusively over on the Paddy Power blog…

The BBC hit straight back against this morning’s claim from the Tories that they had behaved disingenuously, briefing that they invited Maria Hutchings to the 5Live hustings as far back as last Wednesday. CCHQ sources are citing security reasons as an excuse for the confusion. They aren’t taking it lightly, Damian Green has just told Sky that “the BBC can be a bit self-important”, and a “jolly cross” Dave has berated the Beeb’s man on the ground, saying his bosses had “behaved badly and stupidly”.

Rather awkwardly, it appears there would have been time for Hutchings to do the debate and still be able to meet the PM…

H/T @MichaelPDeacon

UPDATE: Here is what Dave had to say:

“I think the BBC has behaved badly and stupidly over this from everything I’ve heard about it. My understanding is that we were discussing with you for ages beforehand about the timing of the hustings and the fact that Maria wanted to be with me for this meeting. This is a totally got up thing by the BBC. You know you’re not the most important thing in this by-election – the candidates are.”

Not the voters then…

The Tories are not happy with the BBC over the Maria Hutchings hustings no show. Kicking back, CCHQ say they made clear to the Beeb they were happy for Hutchings to take part in a live hustings, so long as it didn’t clash with Dave’s visit to Eastleigh today. Despite that last night 5Live briefed that Hutchings had said no and that they would empty-chair her. A particularly irate Tory source insists: “The BBC are being disingenuous, they are wilfully misleading listeners. We’re not quite sure how this fits with their code of integrity”. There is even talk of an official complaint. Either way, that doesn’t change the fact that their candidate was the only one missing this morning…

UPDATE:

BBC tells me all four main parties were invited on @bbc5live on Wednesday 13th. Tory claim they didn't have enough notice looking weak—
Joe Murphy (@JoeMurphyLondon) February 21, 2013

5Live are empty-chairing Maria Hutchings after she bottled this morning’s hustings. Quite how that works on radio we will find out. Unsurprisingly the LibDems are jumping on her no show, Tim Farron is crowing that the Tory machine have kept her away and party HQ has come up with a mildly amusing missing poster.

Meanwhile their own candidate Mike “Perhaps I’m a bit dull” Thornton has admitted he won’t give up his council seat if he becomes MP. Hardly brimming with confidence then. If only the Tory candidate was there to ask him about it…

UPDATE: George Hollingbery is stepping in for Hutchings.

The Eastleigh by-election has reached that point where every word the candidates have ever uttered is dredged up and thrown back at them. John O’Farrell got it in the neck about his views on the IRA and Thatcher at the weekend, Maria Hutchings apparently once called Dave a sell-out and the LibDem bloke’s voting record does not match his leaflets. For his two cents, the Brighton bomb quote was not the only bit of O’Farrell’s 1998 autobiography Things Can Only Get Better that caught Guido’s eye:

“I was able to stay in the Labour Party while it ceased opposing privatisation, ceased to support unilateral nuclear disarmament, ceased voting against the Prevention of Terrorism Act and went back on just about every policy I believed in to get itself elected in 1997.”

O’Farrell has fired up the Labour Twitterati and got some boots on the ground, but aside from his comedic running commentary from the stump, he has not really said very much. Has he changed his mind on privatisation and nukes?

Guido understands the Labour leader will be journeying south to help out his joke candidate John O’Farrell tomorrow.

And this time he’s armed with an actual policy…